steve cooper
Well-Known Member
IMO our best chance is if we finish 5th or 6th, that would probably mean avoiding Lincoln in the first round. Exeter would probably beat Lincoln.
GW46 - Where we should have V did finish this season (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter ccfcricoh
- Start date
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
You might not be wrong there.
Plus if we did get Lincoln in the final (should we get there), we might be able to dispose on them.
I still think it is a lottery. I do hope we get a spot though, it could be fun.
ccfcricoh
Well-Known Member
Updated for Morecambe draw 0-0
So there we have it...season over and we made it into the play offs (never in doubt!)...
As can see from the graph our points tally has us finishing pretty much bang on 6th place so the numbers weren't far off 6 months or so ago when setting points target.
The targets were:
Champions - estimate need 91 points - actual 89 points needed
Autos - estimate need 83 points - actual 81 points needed
Playoffs - estimate need 72 points- actual 73 points needed
Relegation - estimate need 44 points - actual 46 points needed
So at worst they were only 2 points off and it seems a pretty decent way of guestimating where we would finish based on current form. Glad it was close as otherwise that would have been a serious waste of my works time! 10 games ago my estimate was 74 for for playoffs which turned out to be about right as Mansfield continued to screw themselves over right to the end!
Looking at our seasons form we were almost always on playoff form, only 6 times (at the start of the season) were we in automatic form, but more impressively only 3 times this season did we drop behind playoff form.
Unfortunately, this wont work for playoffs ha! but... in the last 10 seasons:
4th place promoted - 2
5th place promoted - 2
6th place promoted - 1
7th place promoted - 5
That's not a great stat for us - maybe we should have tried to finish 7th (or is that what we were trying yesterday!)
God knows if anyone actually took interest in this but it kept me quiet - hopefully get to do it in League 1 next season!
PUSB
So there we have it...season over and we made it into the play offs (never in doubt!)...
As can see from the graph our points tally has us finishing pretty much bang on 6th place so the numbers weren't far off 6 months or so ago when setting points target.
The targets were:
Champions - estimate need 91 points - actual 89 points needed
Autos - estimate need 83 points - actual 81 points needed
Playoffs - estimate need 72 points- actual 73 points needed
Relegation - estimate need 44 points - actual 46 points needed
So at worst they were only 2 points off and it seems a pretty decent way of guestimating where we would finish based on current form. Glad it was close as otherwise that would have been a serious waste of my works time! 10 games ago my estimate was 74 for for playoffs which turned out to be about right as Mansfield continued to screw themselves over right to the end!
Looking at our seasons form we were almost always on playoff form, only 6 times (at the start of the season) were we in automatic form, but more impressively only 3 times this season did we drop behind playoff form.
Unfortunately, this wont work for playoffs ha! but... in the last 10 seasons:
4th place promoted - 2
5th place promoted - 2
6th place promoted - 1
7th place promoted - 5
That's not a great stat for us - maybe we should have tried to finish 7th (or is that what we were trying yesterday!)
God knows if anyone actually took interest in this but it kept me quiet - hopefully get to do it in League 1 next season!
PUSB
Esoterica
Well-Known Member
Have to admit I though it was going to be a record breaking points total to make the play offs at the end of January. Hard to believe just how badly Mansfield and Swindon fell away. 5 wins between them in their final 26 matches.
Incredible for me too that Wycombe made the autos when their record against the top 10 was P18 W3 D7 L8 = 16 points.
Whereas our record vs top 10 was P18 W10 D2 L6 = 32 points
Incredible for me too that Wycombe made the autos when their record against the top 10 was P18 W3 D7 L8 = 16 points.
Whereas our record vs top 10 was P18 W10 D2 L6 = 32 points
Last edited:
MusicDating
Euro 2016 Prediction League Champion!!
They're remarkable stats, particularly about Mansfield and Swindon.
If you add in Peterborough to the mix (2 wins from their last 10 games), the would be triumvirate of Fatty Evans/Flitcroft/Brown didn't work out too well!
If you add in Peterborough to the mix (2 wins from their last 10 games), the would be triumvirate of Fatty Evans/Flitcroft/Brown didn't work out too well!
ccfcricoh
Well-Known Member
Yes very true and I was thinking the same. But then you kind of get into the fact of form v consistency. It's very unlikely any team will put together a complete season on consistent form (either good or bad) and over 46 games, it kind of works out the same!!
I kept looking at pompy laast season because with about 8 games to go we were still on track with them points wise, but then they had an outstanding end to the season!
Mansfield and Swindon proving the point but the other way round! I like the fact it was out game with Mansfield that started that lovely run of theirs as well!
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I kept looking at pompy laast season because with about 8 games to go we were still on track with them points wise, but then they had an outstanding end to the season!
Mansfield and Swindon proving the point but the other way round! I like the fact it was out game with Mansfield that started that lovely run of theirs as well!
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MusicDating
Euro 2016 Prediction League Champion!!
Looking back, the ten men battling point at Mansfield was huge. It kicked off our unbeaten run and I think generally gave the players (and fans) belief.
Hadn't realised we scored in every game (14) since the meek surrender v Accrington until yesterday's tactical nils.
Hadn't realised we scored in every game (14) since the meek surrender v Accrington until yesterday's tactical nils.
ccfcricoh
Well-Known Member
I think we can write off yesterday... we earnt the right to play for a draw by getting to that position in the first place...
Scoring in every game certainly does make us look good over 2 legs in a semi! Means a team would generally need to put 3 passed us straight away!
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Scoring in every game certainly does make us look good over 2 legs in a semi! Means a team would generally need to put 3 passed us straight away!
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thekidfromstrettoncamp
Well-Known Member
Just looked back to check my prediction and noticed ccfcricoh 92 post and it was not far out. Mind you I looked at his last comment and the date beneath it he must have missed Christmas or he was early for this year
ccfcricoh
Well-Known Member
Haha posted on 28th... that must have been the first time I was sober since Xmas!
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Thanks for sticking it up on here .
Wycombe as auto just seems bizarre as evidenced by Liquid Golds chart today ..
Otis
Well-Known Member
Right, great, thanks for that. Now do one for League One!!
ccfcricoh
Well-Known Member
Ha down side of going up means I'd have to start all over again as opposed to just rolling this on a year...Right, great, thanks for that. Now do one for League One!!
I think I'll wait and see what happens first, although I really hope I have to start all over again!
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