Hedge Fund & Fears for CCFC ! (1 Viewer)

[sky blue john]

I have been looking up info on how Hedge Funds work as a refresher and to try and understand the Sisu master plan.
My conclusion so far is that these fund values run into billions. The funds have a wide range of investments in their portfolios. They can be long term investments and part of their aim is to protect money from volitile stock markets.
My fear this is likely to be played out for years they will be in no rush and have millions in resources. They will not liquidate because that will kill their investment. They are going to wait however long it takes to break Acl. They will continue to play lip service to all parties including us fans.
They don't care about CCFC the only way we can get them out is to force them out with pressure !!!

 

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[hill83]

Cheers for that.

 

[Senior Vick from Alicante]

They are going to wait however long it takes to break Acl This will not happen, ACL have a business plan going forward that takes into account the loss of income from CCFC

 

[sky blue john]

Cheers for that.

I don't like it much either but our only option is to play them at their own game.
Which would be using leverage to force a hostile takeover.

 

[skyblueiom]

I have been looking up info on how Hedge Funds work as a refresher and to try and understand the Sisu master plan.
My conclusion so far is that these fund values run into billions. The funds have a wide range of investments in their portfolios. They can be long term investments and part of their aim is to protect money from volitile stock markets.
My fear this is likely to be played out for years they will be in no rush and have millions in resources. They will not liquidate because that will kill their investment. They are going to wait however long it takes to break Acl. They will continue to play lip service to all parties including us fans.
They don't care about CCFC the only way we can get them out is to force them out with pressure !!!

Not necessarily. They try to reduce the risk/volatility in their portfolio with a relevant 'hedge,' however not all positions have to be hedged, and I'm not sure what hedge you could apply against a football club! So whilst they do appear to be extremely stubborn, any sane person can see that this football club will not give them anywhere near break even on their investment, let alone a profit. So on that basis I wouldn't read anything into the fact that they're a hedge fund, however as an investment house they will have to answer to their clients, who I am sure cannot be best pleased with their investment and the behaviour of Sisu - despite it being the nature of the beast.

 

[ccfcway]

it all sounds very "appealing"

 

[Hobo]

I have been looking up info on how Hedge Funds work as a refresher and to try and understand the Sisu master plan.
My conclusion so far is that these fund values run into billions. The funds have a wide range of investments in their portfolios. They can be long term investments and part of their aim is to protect money from volitile stock markets.
My fear this is likely to be played out for years they will be in no rush and have millions in resources. They will not liquidate because that will kill their investment. They are going to wait however long it takes to break Acl. They will continue to play lip service to all parties including us fans.
They don't care about CCFC the only way we can get them out is to force them out with pressure !!!

Could well be the case. Also people say, if I was an investor I would withdraw my money.

The reality is you don't always know where your money is invested? Because you invest it with someone who then invests it in other parties, who invest it with other parties....a bit like spread betting.

Then there might be people who have invested large sums in three separate high risk funds through Joy...it might only need one to succeed for them to be very happy? Their investments will be over several portfolios, not all have to succeed.

 

[Como]

Hedge funds make high risk investments, inevitably some will fail.

Generally they are not long term investors.

If for example in 5 years ACL failed, CCC as freeholder needed a new Tenant, I doubt that having a connection with Sisu would help.

By then anyway according to their agreement with the FL they would be well into constructing the new ground.

I personally do not think they will have any more joy legally, pun intended. I have no idea why they would want to throw more money at the club. Hedge Funds usually know when to cut their losses. Mind you in this case it should have been many years ago.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Could well be the case. Also people say, if I was an investor I would withdraw my money.

If you were an investor you wouldn't, as you'd know it was a high risk speculation...

Edit- it appears we agree with each other

 

[sky blue john]

Not necessarily. They try to reduce the risk/volatility in their portfolio with a relevant 'hedge,' however not all positions have to be hedged, and I'm not sure what hedge you could apply against a football club! So whilst they do appear to be extremely stubborn, any sane person can see that this football club will not give them anywhere near break even on their investment, let alone a profit. So on that basis I wouldn't read anything into the fact that they're a hedge fund, however as an investment house they will have to answer to their clients, who I am sure cannot be best pleased with their investment and the behaviour of Sisu - despite it being the nature of the beast.

It would depend on how the rest of the portfolio is doing. These funds are huge the investment to date might only relate to a few percent of the fund. I reckon they wouldn't be bothered by us hanging round in league one & two for the next few seasons.

 

[sky blue john]

The Arvo Masterfund is mainly pension money this is a long term investment.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Hedge Funds usually know when to cut their losses.

LTCM are the big example against that, but it's often betting against the market. George Soros would tell you a lot about the fact there comes to a stage of fight or flight... you either give in, or aggressively defend your position to the death, even if it costs you more...

In the case of CCFC, it's probably originally betting on either convergence or divergence on revenues. Here's an example:

http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1999/04/26/258773/index.htm

You might recognise the name

Now, when it comes to CCFC, you can find plenty of articles from Ranson about how TV revenues are going to increase drastically. Here's an example:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/co...the-flurry-of-dollars-Ranson-makes-sense.html

In effect, he's sold them a deal where they buy a club with the opportunity to get into that TV revenue utopia, but the price of the club is below 'market' value owing to the lack of infrastructure surrounding he club.

Now that was obvious...

Now? You either contrive a value of something, from two elements with a value of nothing or very little.

Or... you're betting on something else.

 

[The Gentleman]

I have been looking up info on how Hedge Funds work as a refresher and to try and understand the Sisu master plan.
My conclusion so far is that these fund values run into billions. The funds have a wide range of investments in their portfolios. They can be long term investments and part of their aim is to protect money from volitile stock markets.
My fear this is likely to be played out for years they will be in no rush and have millions in resources. They will not liquidate because that will kill their investment. They are going to wait however long it takes to break Acl. They will continue to play lip service to all parties including us fans.
They don't care about CCFC the only way we can get them out is to force them out with pressure !!!

But what happens if ACL did do the unthinkable and get in some Rugby League team or something similar. Would that not force them into building a new stadium or it all going tits up? I just cannot see them building a new stadium in any way as the numbers really do not stack up at all. So what then for their long term plan?

 

[Deleted member 5849]

But what happens if ACL did do the unthinkable and get in some Rugby League team or something similar. Would that not force them into building a new stadium or it all going tits up? I just cannot see them building a new stadium in any way as the numbers really do not stack up at all. So what then for their long term plan?

You could conceivably just cling on in the knowledge this is a bubble at the moment... and bubbles tend to burst.

You could in fact make the argument that forget anything else, that's indeed why they would be happy with a long term lease plus revenues, as they're in charge of a medium sized club who, whenever that bubble bursts and relative normality comes back to football, they'd be in a stronger position than many.

One thing you definitely *don't* do is exactly what Fisher says, you don't sell at the bottom of the cycle. That won't be an option... other things might...

However, instead of looking at how hedge funds work, you might be better off checking out private equity funds

 

[Hobo]

But what happens if ACL did do the unthinkable and get in some Rugby League team or something similar. Would that not force them into building a new stadium or it all going tits up? I just cannot see them building a new stadium in any way as the numbers really do not stack up at all. So what then for their long term plan?

New stadium? You are right figures don't stack up. Plus you need the right land, at the right price in the right location! Which they haven't got.

So it's plan A, keep trying to distress ACL, keep reducing costs of running club and eek what we can from it.

 

[sky blue john]

They can easily limp the club a long for the next few years at sixfields maybe losing 2million a year. They may even be in a break even situation now. If you take into account the Arsenal match and player sales !

 

[The Gentleman]

You could conceivably just cling on in the knowledge this is a bubble at the moment... and bubbles tend to burst.

You could in fact make the argument that forget anything else, that's indeed why they would be happy with a long term lease plus revenues, as they're in charge of a medium sized club who, whenever that bubble bursts and relative normality comes back to football, they'd be in a stronger position than many.

One thing you definitely *don't* do is exactly what Fisher says, you don't sell at the bottom of the cycle. That won't be an option... other things might...

However, instead of looking at how hedge funds work, you might be better off checking out private equity funds

Can you please tell me when we are at this so called 'bottom of the cycle' because from where I am sitting we just seem to keep falling.................and then we read that Callum is on his way, in the words of RFC........HELP!

 

[sky blue john]

But what happens if ACL did do the unthinkable and get in some Rugby League team or something similar. Would that not force them into building a new stadium or it all going tits up? I just cannot see them building a new stadium in any way as the numbers really do not stack up at all. So what then for their long term plan?

They have the money to build a stadium if they have to.

 

[The Gentleman]

They have the money to build a stadium if they have to.

But what would they sell it for?

 

[shmmeee]

Can you please tell me when we are at this so called 'bottom of the cycle' because from where I am sitting we just seem to keep falling.................and then we read that Callum is on his way, in the words of RFC........HELP!

I'm not sure the football side comes into it too much.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

I'm not sure the football side comes into it too much.

The value of nothing is still nothing, wherever in the pyramid you sit...

 

[TheOldFive]

You could conceivably just cling on in the knowledge this is a bubble at the moment... and bubbles tend to burst.

You could in fact make the argument that forget anything else, that's indeed why they would be happy with a long term lease plus revenues, as they're in charge of a medium sized club who, whenever that bubble bursts and relative normality comes back to football, they'd be in a stronger position than many.

One thing you definitely *don't* do is exactly what Fisher says, you don't sell at the bottom of the cycle. That won't be an option... other things might...

However, instead of looking at how hedge funds work, you might be better off checking out private equity funds

Absolutely right. When Fisher talked of this cycle he said it may take 10 years to turn and that Sisu were prepared for this, with budget assured to keep the Club going for the next 3 years to be appraised annually.

Nine years to go then. Another 3 in Sixfields, then six to get to the Premier League. Might take 3 promotions at this rate but will be an adventure for sure! It might be a bit masochistic to say, but one thing you can say about Sisu is there's never a dull moment with them in charge!

By the way, I have a lot of people in the real world who ask me if I am you on here. I've taken it as a complement I think you are quite a good commentator on things.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

By the way, I have a lot of people in the real world who ask me if I am you on here. I've taken it as a complement I think you are quite a good commentator on things.

If you're in a position to give me a job...

 

[lordsummerisle]

There's a real world??

 

[Jack Griffin]

The Arvo Masterfund is mainly pension money this is a long term investment.

Tell me where you got that from. I believe differently.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

There's a real world??

It's a bit shit.

Less well-worn cliches thrown at me during a day however

 

[sky blue john]

Tell me where you got that from. I believe differently.

Please correct me if i'm wrong but I remember seeing something to this effect regarding an American University pension fund.

 

[wingy]

They can easily limp the club a long for the next few years at sixfields maybe losing 2million a year. They may even be in a break even situation now. If you take into account the Arsenal match and player sales !

I very much doubt that John.

 

[wingy]

It's a bit shit.

Less well-worn cliches thrown at me during a day however

Peter Gabriel or NEADS as evidenced on C4 last night .

 

[wingy]

New stadium? You are right figures don't stack up. Plus you need the right land, at the right price in the right location! Which they haven't got.

So it's plan A, keep trying to distress ACL, keep reducing costs of running club and eek what we can from it.

Private Lang owners was commented on In the TF Interview ,Warwick Uni ,Broadstreet been mooted ,far simpler to gain /consent In either scenario ,their not building one though .

By the time they've decimated us may as well share the Butts.

 

[John_Silletts_Nose]

You could conceivably just cling on in the knowledge this is a bubble at the moment... and bubbles tend to burst.

You could in fact make the argument that forget anything else, that's indeed why they would be happy with a long term lease plus revenues, as they're in charge of a medium sized club who, whenever that bubble bursts and relative normality comes back to football, they'd be in a stronger position than many.

One thing you definitely *don't* do is exactly what Fisher says, you don't sell at the bottom of the cycle. That won't be an option... other things might...

However, instead of looking at how hedge funds work, you might be better off checking out private equity funds

It is true that looking up Private Equity Funds will give a better perspective on how the ownership model works with respect to CCFC. With the private equity model the decisions and management is controlled so managing their own destiny, unfortunately it has failed at CCFC.

People keep mentioning investors, try looking into the University of Pennsylvania Endowment Fund as they may be a significant investor, connections are that Joy and Bill Florence studied at the business school for their MBA's and Joy maintains quite a few links, including her niece studying there. Another link to the university is Jon Huntsman who is a rich investor and was owner of Hunstman Advanced Materials, SISU owned part of one of these companies and managed it well before selling in 2007. There have been statements by Joy that family investments form some of the SISU investment money, this may be the Huntsman family money.

If the investors felt that their money was being invested in a risky business with little return then this would be a concern, as they are based in USA then they will not have such a good connection with the grass roots feelings and direction.

 

[Jack Griffin]

But what would they sell it for?

No way it works unless there is a large industrial, retail or residential development with it & it would have to be right next to a major road or the infrastructure costs are too high.

That requires a few committed partners, just like CCC/CCFC did with getting Tesco, M&S, Next + others on board for the Arena park. They'd have to be in with someone who specialised in that sort of thing. That would surely not be possible to keep secret.

 

[Como]

No way it works unless there is a large industrial, retail or residential development with it & it would have to be right next to a major road or the infrastructure costs are too high.

That requires a few committed partners, just like CCC/CCFC did with getting Tesco, M&S, Next + others on board for the Arena park. They'd have to be in with someone who specialised in that sort of thing. That would surely not be possible to keep secret.

The tail wagging the dog, presupposes that building a stadium would allow all those extra activities which seems very unlikely.

Why not just build them and forget the loss making stadium?

 

[TheOldFive]

It is true that looking up Private Equity Funds will give a better perspective on how the ownership model works with respect to CCFC. With the private equity model the decisions and management is controlled so managing their own destiny, unfortunately it has failed at CCFC.

People keep mentioning investors, try looking into the University of Pennsylvania Endowment Fund as they may be a significant investor, connections are that Joy and Bill Florence studied at the business school for their MBA's and Joy maintains quite a few links, including her niece studying there. Another link to the university is Jon Huntsman who is a rich investor and was owner of Hunstman Advanced Materials, SISU owned part of one of these companies and managed it well before selling in 2007. There have been statements by Joy that family investments form some of the SISU investment money, this may be the Huntsman family money.

If the investors felt that their money was being invested in a risky business with little return then this would be a concern, as they are based in USA then they will not have such a good connection with the grass roots feelings and direction.

The Billionnaire Huntsman family are devout Mormons - Joy has worked for them for many years and is something of a protégé. I met one of the Sons about 12 years ago when they were buying a chemical manufacturing plant I worked at.

Joy has said the ccfc investment is in a closed fund with clients very close to her.

I would suggest appealing to Huntsman on the "destroying communities" front but I wouldn't hold out hope - they shut the factory down I was at putting hundreds out of work only a year or so from being the white knight riding in to save it. Part of the plant was even dismantled, moved & rebuilt in India. Makes Northampton look a doddle really...

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...on-I-wanted-build-exclusive-home-America.html

 

[Como]

LTCM are the big example against that, but it's often betting against the market. George Soros would tell you a lot about the fact there comes to a stage of fight or flight... you either give in, or aggressively defend your position to the death, even if it costs you more...

In the case of CCFC, it's probably originally betting on either convergence or divergence on revenues. Here's an example:

http://archive.fortune.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/1999/04/26/258773/index.htm

You might recognise the name

Now, when it comes to CCFC, you can find plenty of articles from Ranson about how TV revenues are going to increase drastically. Here's an example:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/co...the-flurry-of-dollars-Ranson-makes-sense.html

In effect, he's sold them a deal where they buy a club with the opportunity to get into that TV revenue utopia, but the price of the club is below 'market' value owing to the lack of infrastructure surrounding he club.

Now that was obvious...

Now? You either contrive a value of something, from two elements with a value of nothing or very little.

Or... you're betting on something else.

If you are talking about the US the system has been set up in most cases to make money for the owners, to protect their investments. Football in the UK has a very different history.

I can not see a system where there is for example a draft so the bottom teams get the best players or no relegation.

I do understand going all in to defend your position, we had this recently in Basketball. But you have to have something worth defending.

What do you have with CCFC:

Physical assets - some, but not much.

Players etc - well anyone any good will leave. Do not blame them.

Brand name - tarnished but still worth something

Golden Share - I do not know what a third tier share is 'worth'.

Add it all up and must be a lot less that they have invested. So what are you protecting with more money, what is the upside for going all in?

Your income from matchday is minimal as we are now, and from TV, insignificant. Looks like beIN have the US rights for 1st Division, can not imagine it was a major spend.