Just my opinion but
- why would anyone buy their high interest debt ? Surely you would only buy the assets. Thats a problem for SISU because someone buying all or part of the debt actually deflates the total amount they could take out over say the next 5 to 10 years because any such sale deal would seek to discount what the owners are owed and/or decrease annual interest due to investors
- i wouldnt think selling the assets and paying down their own debt from the proceeds is particularly palatable either, it does not give them maximum return
- is it even for sale, when SISU have not yet extracted worth from their investment. Never lose sight that it is all about maximising the investors return before the needs of the clubs supporters
I still think that the plan that commenced pre pandemic is to build value in to the playing squads, which will mean high value players being sold regularly, SISU will take a slice each year of those sales to pay down the accumulating interest and the capital they have put in to Otium, once that pay down is done then that is when they could look to sell a largely debt free football club with reasonably highly valued playing squad. That way they will maximise the return on revenue and capital investment in Otium.
However SBS&L have 28m owed to them by Otium (but not secured) so that will need paying down too. So that complicates things and could easily delay timescales to get part or all of that settled too if they choose. They are not going to be walking away from those debts debts in Otium & SBS&L in a rush to sell, and no one in their right mind would take the debt on.
Dont forget about the preference shares both ARVO & SBS&L own that are accruing something like 9% dividends once their are distributable profits too.
Also dont forget, increased value to the club, accruing or paying interest results in SISU itself taking a slice from its investors as investment managers of the relevant investment funds
They are not putting money in to the club each year as far as we know so they are not exactly struggling with it or pressured to sell in that sense. Between 2018 accounts and 2020 accounts their net investment was £36k hardly massive sums. 2021 & 2022 might be different but not sure yet. If they have put funds in they will be looking to extract those emergency funds asap
They have not been able to milk the club to get their money back (except in 2019 when they took out 1.7m - had to pay back in 2020) ....... but they will
How much would a mid championship debt free football club be worth ? presently they wouldn't look at anything below £50m for the club in that position imo............... but it is not for sale for a while yet. But they will eventually have taken much more than that in total if it all goes to plan in the way i believe
