Looking at this logically after some sleep (1 Viewer)

I think Oggy was right - he said that when we were in the Prem you didn’t concern yourself that you were playing Chelsea or Manure you just got on with it even though on paper their players were far superior - and once in a while we won and we were beside ourselves - this is the same so far

One win and everyone will love MR and CCFC again

2 promotions and a cup win in 4 years. This is a battle for surivial now. Don't expect it to be easy but relish the points when they do come and hold off on the anger when they dont

According to this website our start hasn’t been overly difficult - we have played teams with an average of 1.53 PPG, Rotherham for example 1.45PPG. Barnsley 1.54, Derby 1.57

Evo1883 said:

That's taking current league position... That's also not taking into consideration the fact that teams who are bottom half or mid table will finish higher...we know in ourselves who is a better side roughly than who... Brentford are 11th... Will finish top 6 and we know it

Them stats would be useful after say half a season

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We don’t know where anyone will finish. All we have is the current table so far, I wouldn’t say Brentford are certainties either they have lost 2 top players. Bournemouth are a better team on paper but Reading is currently the more difficult fixture.

covcity4life said:

One win and everyone will love MR and CCFC again

2 promotions and a cup win in 4 years. This is a battle for surivial now. Don't expect it to be easy but relish the points when they do come and hold off on the anger when they dont

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I still love the manager and the team. I just feel we're better than we're showing at the moment. We need to have a bit of belief in ourselves, we earned the right to be in this division lets act like we belong.

We can't continue writing off results all season. I expect us to lose more than we win but we can't go on many long runs without picking up points and say its ok because its x team. We need to focus on beating the teams around us (which we didn't against Barnsley) BUT we also need to pick up the odd win and a chunk of draws from better teams.

Trouble is if we are writing off 20 games a season the pressure to perform in the others is massive

Macca said:

Trouble is if we are writing off 20 games a season the pressure to perform in the others is massive

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Nobody is writing them off. We're just saying that people shouldn't be surprised or outraged when we lose to better teams than us.

Shipley was poor last night but at least he was involved in the game Allen doesn’t impose himself anywhere near enough to be close to a starting 11

PVA said:

Nobody is writing them off. We're just saying that people shouldn't be surprised or outraged when we lose to better teams than us.

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Careful with your logic on here

PVA said:

Come on mate. Do you really think we have regressed in that sense and that we are easier to break down this season compared to last?

It's not us that has regressed, it's that the opposition is on a whole other planet compared to what we faced last season.

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This is the issue. We made plenty of mistakes last season but most of the time it didn't matter as the opposition weren't good enough to capitalise. At this level when we make a mistake we're being punished.

PVA said:

Yes I said this in another thread. 6 of our 8 games have been against current top half sides. The two bottom half teams we've played we've taken 4 points from. I'm definitely not panicking yet.

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Never mind Philosorapter's algorithms, PVA's stats are transparent and simple.

In a full season, we play 23 games against top half teams and 23 games against bottom half teams.

We have 16 games left against top teams (will get no points to add to the three we've just got from Reading). We have 21 games against bottom teams (at 2 points a game we should get 42 points). Total: we can expect to get 42 points this season plus the three we've just got from Reading. Except that 2 pts a game is more than we got last year in League One. So that now to get 42 points in the season we only have to get 39 more points from our 21 games against bottom half of the table teams. So just 1.86 pts per game in those bottom half games will get us to 42.***

Hitch-hikers Guide to the Galaxy says 42 points are the meaning of life and every single football result in the entire football galaxy.

And this is why. Take the last ten seasons. Read where the teams with 42 points ended up.

Looking at last season right back to 2010-2011.

Last season 42 points gets you Bottom (R for Relegated)
2018-19 21st - 2 points above the drop
2017-18 21st - 1 point above the drop
2016-17 23rd (R) - 9 points from safety
2015-16 21st - 1 point above the drop
2014-15 22nd (R) - 2 points from safety
2013-14 23rd (R) - 13 points from safety
2012-13 21st - 2 points above the drop
2011-12 21st - 2 points above the drop and two points above a team in 23rd place that had the fifth largest stadium in the Championship.
2010-11 22nd/24th (R) Equal on points with Preston, Sheff U and Scunthorpe (so just see where they are now and that's where we will be in 10 years time! Simples!) We would also finish 7 points short of what was then needed to survive and only eight points behind the team in 18th place that had the fourth largest stadium in the Championship. So they weren't going to go down any time soon!

5 of those seasons we would have been relegated (even though in 2011-12 we would have survived on 42 points while Coventry City actually got relegated in 2011-12 with only 40 points! (sick - spelling?)

But for glasses half-full folk, in 5 of those seasons we would have survived!**

Final Conclusion - Play any worse in 2010-21 than we have done so far, we can expect to get relegated. Play any better, tips the odds towards survival.

** So, Final, final Conclusion - we'll stay up!!!
(Or equally possible, we might go down).

***Updated 31.10.20

At the moment the league table is effectively a form table as it's still early. Later on we could play teams higher up or considered contenders having a bad run whilst we may also play lower table teams or expected to struggle having a purple patch. Similar we may be approaching winnable games with injuries/suspensions or once we're expected to be second best with the opposition suffering the same.Right now we've no idea and it's pot luck. Let's hope we get more favouring us than not.

I don't think we need to panic just now. Although we've got to be mindful of the performances and results regardless of the form/quality of the opponents we faced we also need to acknowledge we've started with far too many red cards that have left us playing quite a bit of time a man down (and were lucky not to have Osti sent off early in another) but also we've had players with injuries coming back to fitness nowhere near their full capability that have hampered our chances. You could also point out the extended break we had compared to others which has left us rusty and not up to match speed (althoough you'd hope they'd start showing signs of parity around now) but which may help us later on when last year's elongated season starts to affect other teams fitness and energy

We definitely need to improve, and the tactics may need altering slightly but there are also reasons to suggest we've not seen anyway near what the players are capable of for various reasons and if we can get players fully fit and keep 11 men on the pitch hopefully the performance s and results will improve. I just hope that the run of losses isn't starting to give a negative mindset among the players as there was much to be said for our belief that we could always get back into things in the previous season.

Think even those of us said it’d be difficult and frustrating and would be happy to scrape survival, still underestimated the league too!

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:

I just hope that the run of losses isn't starting to give a negative mindset among the players as there was much to be said for our belief that we could always get back into things in the previous season.

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You could tell how much it hurt them to concede like that late on and there's only so many times that can happen before heads drop. Robins commented on it post match also

Tommo1993 said:

Think even those of us said it’d be difficult and frustrating and would be happy to scrape survival, still underestimated the league too!

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Derby win tonight vs Cardiff and we're in the bottom 3, Forest only above us on goal difference. If Forest win or draw vs Luton, we're down there on points too.

Happy_Martian said:

Derby win tonight vs Cardiff and we're in the bottom 3, Forest only above us on goal difference. If Forest win or draw vs Luton, we're down there on points too.

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Forest win were 3 adrift if things don’t go our waY weekend we’re 6 adrift after 9 we could be bang in trouble come this weekend we need to get shit sorted