| Yes I said this in another thread. 6 of our 8 games have been against current top half sides. The two bottom half teams we've played we've taken 4 points from. I'm definitely not panicking yet. |
Never mind Philosorapter's algorithms, PVA's stats are transparent and simple.
In a full season, we play 23 games against top half teams and 23 games against bottom half teams.
We have 16 games left against top teams (will get no points to add to the three we've just got from Reading). We have 21 games against bottom teams (at 2 points a game we should get 42 points). Total: we can expect to get 42 points this season plus the three we've just got from Reading. Except that 2 pts a game is more than we got last year in League One. So that now to get 42 points in the season we only have to get 39 more points from our 21 games against bottom half of the table teams. So just 1.86 pts per game in those bottom half games will get us to 42.***
Hitch-hikers Guide to the Galaxy says 42 points are the meaning of life and every single football result in the entire football galaxy.
And this is why. Take the last ten seasons. Read where the teams with 42 points ended up.
Looking at last season right back to 2010-2011.
Last season 42 points gets you Bottom (R for Relegated)
2018-19 21st - 2 points above the drop
2017-18 21st - 1 point above the drop
2016-17 23rd (R) - 9 points from safety
2015-16 21st - 1 point above the drop
2014-15 22nd (R) - 2 points from safety
2013-14 23rd (R) - 13 points from safety
2012-13 21st - 2 points above the drop
2011-12 21st - 2 points above the drop and two points above a team in 23rd place that had the fifth largest stadium in the Championship.
2010-11 22nd/24th (R) Equal on points with Preston, Sheff U and Scunthorpe (so just see where they are now and that's where we will be in 10 years time! Simples!) We would also finish 7 points short of what was then needed to survive and only eight points behind the team in 18th place that had the fourth largest stadium in the Championship. So they weren't going to go down any time soon!
5 of those seasons we would have been relegated (even though in 2011-12 we would have survived on 42 points while Coventry City actually got relegated in 2011-12 with only 40 points! (sick - spelling?)
But for glasses half-full folk, in 5 of those seasons we would have survived!**
Final Conclusion - Play any worse in 2010-21 than we have done so far, we can expect to get relegated. Play any better, tips the odds towards survival.
** So, Final, final Conclusion - we'll stay up!!!
(Or equally possible, we might go down).
***Updated 31.10.20
