stevefloyd
Well-Known Member
It will show where the character is in this game..rise above the PNE we win if not lose
Our fans do bemoan the fact that our form is not good, I would argue that our actual play is quite good we are definitely competing just a little hampered by our lack of quality shots on goal and obviously the goals themselves, against Weds we lost because we didn't take our chances, against Stoke and when we were on top against PNE we just lacked that killer instinct so depending on how the transfer window goes we either consolidate and hope we stay up or speculate and hope we get a 'gud un'our recent form is poor, but Millwalls is worse
Let’s just play him in a free role!Kasta...brilliant entertainment..game changer one way or another...I do wonder what we'd see if he was given a start!
Let’s just play him in a free role!
Millwall scored less goals than us, only 8 at home the same as we have scored away, if we can finish some of the chances we create we could easily win this one .
A change in formation, 25 games in and the only times we've looked like scoring is with 2 up top.
And we should have beat them , what's your fucking point!Preston had conceded more than us
But we showed ‘emPreston had conceded more than us
So what you’re saying in a nutshell is that if we score more goals than Millwall we will win?Statistically there is truth to this but there's a lot of context that needs adding.
Warning: Long & potentially boring post incoming....
When starting with 2 up top we have scored 9 goals in 7 games.
1.28 goals per game.
When starting with 1 up top we have scored 11 goals in 15 games.
0.6 goals per game
And this is backed up pretty well by xG (for the xG doubters)
When playing 2 up top our Average xG = 1.29
When playing 1 up top our Average xG = 0.78
However our xGA (expected Goals Against) is also higher too;
When playing 2 up top our Average xGA = 1.73
When playing 1 up top our Average xGA = 1.40
Now, the all important context...
We've only started with a proper 2 up front on 7 occasions & only 3 times against current occupants of the league's Top 10.
Conversely we have started 15 times with just 1 striker, 7/10 times against the Top 10.
Additionally, the figures are enormously impacted by the Blackburn game (0.43 xG & 4.31 xGA).
I'd be inclined to exclude this as something of an anomaly due to the context of playing with 10 men for approx. 80mins.
This would change our stats when playing 1 up top to be as follows:
Average xG = 0.80
Average xGA = 1.19
So in theory, yes we offer more of a goal threat with 2 up top - approx 0.49 xG extra per game, but we are also weaker defensively, conceding an additional 0.54 xGA.
This is further highlighted when you look at the 3 games we recorded our highest xG - all were playing 2 up front (Rotherham, Forest, Reading) Average xG 1.73
Our highest xGA though (excluding Blackburn) were also all when playing 2 up front (Brentford, Watford, Forest)
Average xGA 2.38
We have lost 4 out of 7 when starting with 2 up front compared to 5 out of 15 with 1 up front
It's a balancing act for sure &, personally, I think Robins is right to err on the side of caution, as frustrating as it can be for us fans to watch at times!
I have serious reservations about xG and xGA and all the assorted numbers associated with them. I'm just someone with a passing interest in this.
Is there anyone out there who can point me to the origins of this system?
It just doesn't sit right with me. I have a number of issues with it.
No offense, Frostie.
Agree, it was frustrating vs Preston to see the changes made. I am not trying to decry MR but I felt the game was there for us and to take CB off and go a narrow 4-4-2 or a genuine 4-3-3 and gone more direct would have suited the position we were in far more.Go 1-0 down and not change anything.
Go 2-0 down and throw Shipley on and wonder why we don't become more attacking.
Then a couple of full back changes.
No problem, each to their own.
What's your reservations out of interest?
This is a decent enough simple summary
Premier League: 'Expected goals' tells us whether a player really should have scored
We've all said 'he should have scored from there'. But now, for the first time, we can say with certainty whether a chance really is as good as we think.www.bbc.co.uk
In terms of origins, not sure, nobody seems certain but they've been around since the 60s & now adopted by vast majority of professional clubs.
The roots of Expected Goals (xG) and its journey from "nerd nonsense" to the mainstream
The xG metric might seem snooty at first, but football fans have been inadvertently collecting their own data sets since they first saw a ball kickedthesefootballtimes.co
In the Reading game we had 8 different players that had goal attemptsIf we start shooting on site and don't care who scores, we can win a nervy 1=0 will do would like bapaga to start and as for kasta can he be any worse?
Please don't prove a point. Your regular graphs are mind blowing as it isIt's Opta.
Where is the key element of measuring all players' positions relative to the position of the ball when the ball is struck?
I'm a great believer that everything that happens in any game you play has a uniqueness to it that cannot be simply covered by analytics.
I do believe I can prove my point to that assertion.
Please don't prove a point. Your regular graphs are mind blowing as it is
Statistically there is truth to this but there's a lot of context that needs adding.
<<very long passage about stats removed>>
It's a balancing act for sure &, personally, I think Robins is right to err on the side of caution, as frustrating as it can be for us fans to watch at times!
Not necessarily we may concede 1 or two own goalsSo what you’re saying in a nutshell is that if we score more goals than Millwall we will win?
The first goal’s always important. Not quite as important as the third but more important than the secondUsing the same notion as I predicted our defeat at Shef Wed ('We're due a defeat') I truly believe we are due a goal. We score first, we win.
A great logical and balanced analysis there....I’m just glad I don’t have to make the sorts of decisions MR has to make.Statistically there is truth to this but there's a lot of context that needs adding.
Warning: Long & potentially boring post incoming....
When starting with 2 up top we have scored 9 goals in 7 games.
1.28 goals per game.
When starting with 1 up top we have scored 11 goals in 15 games.
0.6 goals per game
And this is backed up pretty well by xG (for the xG doubters)
When playing 2 up top our Average xG = 1.29
When playing 1 up top our Average xG = 0.78
However our xGA (expected Goals Against) is also higher too;
When playing 2 up top our Average xGA = 1.73
When playing 1 up top our Average xGA = 1.40
Now, the all important context...
We've only started with a proper 2 up front on 7 occasions & only 3 times against current occupants of the league's Top 10.
Conversely we have started 15 times with just 1 striker, 7/10 times against the Top 10.
Additionally, the figures are enormously impacted by the Blackburn game (0.43 xG & 4.31 xGA).
I'd be inclined to exclude this as something of an anomaly due to the context of playing with 10 men for approx. 80mins.
This would change our stats when playing 1 up top to be as follows:
Average xG = 0.80
Average xGA = 1.19
So in theory, yes we offer more of a goal threat with 2 up top - approx 0.49 xG extra per game, but we are also weaker defensively, conceding an additional 0.54 xGA.
This is further highlighted when you look at the 3 games we recorded our highest xG - all were playing 2 up front (Rotherham, Forest, Reading) Average xG 1.73
Our highest xGA though (excluding Blackburn) were also all when playing 2 up front (Brentford, Watford, Forest)
Average xGA 2.38
We have lost 4 out of 7 when starting with 2 up front compared to 5 out of 15 with 1 up front
It's a balancing act for sure &, personally, I think Robins is right to err on the side of caution, as frustrating as it can be for us fans to watch at times!
Is there no team news?
Edit: oops
There are not a lot of relatively really poor teams in The Championship.Difficult to muster any hope after recent displays. No real threat. Our ability to self-implode, even against really poor teams.
Something - 0 to Millwall
Great day out that was,A few beers by London Bridge on a very warm day.Got a feeling we are going to win this one 0.2. I remember a few years ago when Milwall were relegated from the Championship. First game of the season and we won 4 - 1 at the Den against all the odds.
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