More xG Stuff (1 Viewer)

JimmyHillsbeard said:

Anyone see Arsenal - Man United in the cup? Xg was something like 3- 0.5 to Arsenal. No surprise that they didn’t win as not taking the good opportunities they create is one of their chief characteristics.

At what point do we see XG as a symptom of our deficiencies rather than evidence that it will all come good in the end.

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And yet everyone recognises that Arsenal are a far superior side to Man United, despite that one off result. You're so close to getting it!

xG gets a hard time, but it’s a valuable piece of data.

1. It measures more than just the outcome (the goal). A goal can be caused by a wonder strike or a goalkeeper error, whereas this indicates how well a team creates and gives up chances.

2. There’s a lot of data - by this stage of the season, nothing on there is happening by chance and that’s evident based on league positions.

3. It’s outlines under and over-performance, which if rooted in variance (luck) over time it should revert to the mean. If it’s not luck, the team have bad strikers and/or are making a lot of goalkeeping and defensive errors.

My feeling would be that we are so far off our expected outcome that we have the combination of both, and I think that’s evident.
I suppose the good news is that it should be fixable.

If Simms and Wright can get firing again, and we can tighten the defence with Dovin in goal, we should climb the table in the second half of the season.

Saddlebrains said:

We leak goals, and miss gilt edged chances

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you moron that’s literally the fucking point

robbiekeane said:

you moron that’s literally the fucking point

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Soz, dont hurt me

What I have seen this season on the pitch seems to mirror what the stats suggest, we have had rotten luck this season, with a lot of goals scored when the opposition have had few chances prior, and we've been wasteful in front of goal.

Look at Norwich away, 9/10 the guy doesn't score the equaliser, Cardiff's second during the home game springs to mind, the scorer is a bag of crock, he slices that wide 99/100.

I always concede though that, when thinking back anecdotally, I suspect a lot of supporters feel the same about their own team.

Saddlebrains said:

Soz, dont hurt me

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