New number one needed (2 Viewers)

Mucca Mad Boys · May 7, 2024

Grendel said:
I looked purely at the top 20 but if Collins has faced more shots it’s not automatically saying he’s a better keeper does it?

That’s why save % is also covered as well as PSxG.

His April stats l would almost definitely be a lot worse and the pertinent point here is that he really hasn’t been as bad as some have claimed this season. ‘Command of box’ gets mentioned a lot, the best keeper for this category will stop 11.6% of crosses and only 2 GKs claimed above 10% this season. Collins’ 4.6% is low for the Championship but the same as Alisson, Nick Pope and Foderingham for a reference

You look at him getting the blame for Hull’s 3rd goal, it was clearly a defensive error from Thomas first and foremost.

Mucca Mad Boys · May 7, 2024

MalcSB said:
As someone once said, there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

All of us will have seen with our own eyes that Collins has let in more than 1 goal that he shouldn’t have - several in fact.
Given the evidence of what we have seen, perhaps what the stats really show is that if Collins
a) stopped throwing the ball in to his own net
b) stopped punching the ball to opponents
c) had more physical presence in the area
d) anything else anyone might want to add
he might be a pretty good goal keeper

How would you measure performance, if not statistics? Performance athletes need objective markers of good performance.

What does physical presence even mean to you and specifically, how do you measure it?

SBAndy · May 7, 2024

Mucca Mad Boys said:
Have a look at the stats from the link I posted, a lot of GKs have conceded more goals than they should have. There’s a glossary of what each field means.

I’ll use Cov as an example:

As a team, our xG ‘post-shot’ for goals conceded is 52.1 goals, and the goals we’ve conceded (non-FK and penalties) is 55. Therefore, on this metric, we’ve conceded 2.9 goals than we should have.

We’ve had two GKs this term, let’s see how they’ve faired based on all the shots each GK has faced:

1) Wilson - PSxG is 21.3, he conceded 25 goals (excluding FK & PK) so he conceded 3.7 more goals than he should have.

2) Collins - PSxG is 30.9, he conceded 30 goals (excluding FK and PK) so he conceded 0.9 goal less than he should have.

I hope this is helpful and might be an interesting visual for anyone interested.

The fly in the ointment is the severe regression over the last 10-15 games. He’s gone from about +3.7 Goals Prevented to +0.9. Still above the average as a season-long metric but the most recent string of games I’m confident would have him at or near the bottom. Unsure whether there’s any data for a particular game range.

Otis · May 7, 2024

Hmm....not sure on those stats at all.

So, let's say Collins saves a shot, but it's a weak shot and then a weak parry from him that goes straight to one of the opposition players and they score.

Would I be right in saying that, that would go towards his saving stats, but it wouldn't necessarily go down as an error?

What if there is a goal scored from a corner and he stays rooted to his line and doesn't come for the ball? That wouldn't go down as an error either would it?

SBAndy · May 7, 2024

Also, take the Southampton 2nd goal. His Goals Prevented would only suffer by 0.06 but his mindless swipe at the ball caused the chance.

Old Warwickshire lad · May 7, 2024

All this goes to prove is that statistics are a joke when applied to anything involving human beings.There are just too many variables.
If you want to see if a keeper is any good,watch him play over a number of games. Whoever has been watching the keepers we have been buying, needs to give his head a wobble.

skybluecam · May 7, 2024

Old Warwickshire lad said:
All this goes to prove is that statistics are a joke when applied to anything involving human beings.

Old Warwickshire lad · May 7, 2024

skybluecam said:

What is it they say?
There are lies,damn lies and statistics. Unless you’re a school kid.

MalcSB · May 7, 2024

Mucca Mad Boys said:
How would you measure performance, if not statistics? Performance athletes need objective markers of good performance.

What does physical presence even mean to you and specifically, how do you measure it?

So you haven’t seen him shrink from challenges, inexplicably let the ball go “through” him, punch the ball to an opponent who scored, pass to an opponent on the edge of the box leading to a goal etc, etc?

In my view, there is both objective analysis (data) and subjective analysis (observation) which needs to come into play.

Despite the howlers subjectively witnessed by all of us, you tell us his objective data is good. Ergo, cut out the howlers and he would be a really good, if not great, keeper.

The multi million, promotion to the Premiership, question is whether we can afford to wait for him to address his shortcomings whilst he suffers the opprobrium if he fails to do so.

MalcSB · May 7, 2024

Mucca Mad Boys said:
How would you measure performance, if not statistics? Performance athletes need objective markers of good performance.

What does physical presence even mean to you and specifically, how do you measure it?

I would measure physical presence by how many strikers he leaves flattened to the floor preventing a goal, I.e. the exact opposite of waving his foot over the ball in a 50:50 challenge.

Deleted member 9744 · May 7, 2024

Mucca Mad Boys said:
That’s why save % is also covered as well as PSxG.

His April stats l would almost definitely be a lot worse and the pertinent point here is that he really hasn’t been as bad as some have claimed this season. ‘Command of box’ gets mentioned a lot, the best keeper for this category will stop 11.6% of crosses and only 2 GKs claimed above 10% this season. Collins’ 4.6% is low for the Championship but the same as Alisson, Nick Pope and Foderingham for a reference

You look at him getting the blame for Hull’s 3rd goal, it was clearly a defensive error from Thomas first and foremost.

His 'challenge' for that third Hull goal was pathetic. He might not have been able to stop the goal but he should have tackled as hard as he could. It was unacceptable.

So weird you defend Collins yet have been criticising Eccles at every opportunity.

MalcSB · May 7, 2024

Old Warwickshire lad said:
All this goes to prove is that statistics are a joke when applied to anything involving human beings.There are just too many variables.
If you want to see if a keeper is any good,watch him play over a number of games. Whoever has been watching the keepers we have been buying, needs to give his head a wobble.

Yes - subjective analysis.

Mucca Mad Boys · May 7, 2024

Otis said:
Hmm....not sure on those stats at all.

So, let's say Collins saves a shot, but it's a weak shot and then a weak parry from him that goes straight to one of the opposition players and they score.

Would I be right in saying that, that would go towards his saving stats, but it wouldn't necessarily go down as an error?

What if there is a goal scored from a corner and he stays rooted to his line and doesn't come for the ball? That wouldn't go down as an error either would it?

That’s a stat for shot difficulty which measures how easy/difficult the shots have been for the GK and Collins and Allsopp have faced the ‘easiest’ chances.

It’s why you measure xG as well. The premise of this stat that of all the shots a GK has had to face, how goals should they have conceded. So you have to give GKs their due because it’s the most thankless position.

Old Warwickshire lad said:
What is it they say?
There are lies,damn lies and statistics. Unless you’re a school kid.

There’s a reason the ‘Moneyball’ approach to scouting has overtaken the old school approach.

With data you can compare and contrast 100s of players at a time. Performance needs objective measurements.

Mucca Mad Boys · May 7, 2024

Deleted member 9744 said:
His 'challenge' for that third Hull goal was pathetic. He might not have been able to stop the goal but he should have tackled as hard as he could. It was unacceptable.

So weird you defend Collins yet have been criticising Eccles at every opportunity.

Saying Eccles isn’t as good as Hamer isn’t the same as criticising him. We’ve lost something since Hamer has left and it’s not even worth discussing whether or not that is the case.

MR says we need more quality yet from your posts, getting rid of Collins will solve all our issues.

Sorry to disappoint, but getting rid of Collins won’t make us a top 6 team overnight.

MalcSB · May 7, 2024

Mucca Mad Boys said:
That’s a stat for shot difficulty which measures how easy/difficult the shots have been for the GK and Collins and Allsopp have faced the ‘easiest’ chances.

It’s why you measure xG as well. The premise of this stat that of all the shots a GK has had to face, how goals should they have conceded. So you have to give GKs their due because it’s the most thankless position.

There’s a reason the ‘Moneyball’ approach to scouting has overtaken the old school approach.

With data you can compare and contrast 100s of players at a time. Performance needs objective measurements.

And recruitment also needs subjective analysis.

Deleted member 9744 · May 7, 2024

Mucca Mad Boys said:
Saying Eccles isn’t as good as Hamer isn’t the same as criticising him. We’ve lost something since Hamer has left and it’s not even worth discussing whether or not that is the case.

MR says we need more quality yet from your posts, getting rid of Collins will solve all our issues.

Sorry to disappoint, but getting rid of Collins won’t make us a top 6 team overnight.

I don’t think Eccles is as good as Hamer. But you and a couple of other posters have been criticising him non stop even when he plays well. It's like Grendel with Palmer and Dasilva.

I think a decent keeper and a couple of good loans in January and we'd be in the play offs with a strong chance of success.

Grendel · May 7, 2024

Deleted member 9744 said:
I don’t think Eccles is as good as Hamer. But you and a couple of other posters have been criticising him non stop even when he plays well. It's like Grendel with Palmer and Dasilva.

I think a decent keeper and a couple of good loans in January and we'd be in the play offs with a strong chance of success.

Pretty much 80% of the forum when commenting on Dasilva and Palmer agree with me that they are nowhere near good enough

You have said Eccles is better than Sheaf which is pure bias and not based on analysis

Mucca Mad Boys · May 7, 2024

Deleted member 9744 said:
I don’t think Eccles is as good as Hamer. But you and a couple of other posters have been criticising him non stop even when he plays well. It's like Grendel with Palmer and Dasilva.

I think a decent keeper and a couple of good loans in January and we'd be in the play offs with a strong chance of success.

Definitely on the wind up here

I’ve said many times that I rate him as a solid player who’s a 7/10 consistently. To say we’re weaker in CM with Eccles and Sheaf than Hamer and Sheaf is true on a subjective and objective level. We miss Hamer’s goals and if Eccles wants to step up and do it next season, fantastic. Personally, I think his development curve is playing as a DM 4-3-3 if that’s the formation for 2024/25.

PVA · May 7, 2024

Collins had a worse season this year than Wilson did last season, statistically speaking.

That's where my issue lies with him.

Yes he was miles better than Wilson this season, but he's been worse than Wilson last year so we haven't actually improved our goalkeeping spot.

Deleted member 9744 · May 7, 2024

Grendel said:
Pretty much 80% of the forum when commenting on Dasilva and Palmer agree with me that they are nowhere near good enough

You have said Eccles is better than Sheaf which is pure bias and not based on analysis

These stats seem to suggest it's not bias.

Grendel · May 7, 2024

Deleted member 9744 said:
These stats seem to suggest it's not bias.

Well managers decide don’t they whose worth what - I don’t see Eccles getting a £15m bid as premier league clubs look to sign him but who knows

Grendel · May 7, 2024

Mucca Mad Boys said:
Definitely on the wind up here

I’ve said many times that I rate him as a solid player who’s a 7/10 consistently. To say we’re weaker in CM with Eccles and Sheaf than Hamer and Sheaf is true on a subjective and objective level. We miss Hamer’s goals and if Eccles wants to step up and do it next season, fantastic. Personally, I think his development curve is playing as a DM 4-3-3 if that’s the formation for 2024/25.

Most of hamers goals came after palmer was injured and he played in a more advance position

clint van damme · May 7, 2024

The 3rd goal against Hull was the one they gave me the most cause for concern about Collins even though the blame lay largely with Thomas.

The way he pulled out of the challenge, the way he didn't really have much of a go at Thomas after.

Given our play off chances were hanging by a thread it was pretty disheartening to see such lack of commitment and indifference.

Otis · May 7, 2024

clint van damme said:
The 3rd goal against Hull was the one they gave me the most cause for concern about Collins even though the blame lay largely with Thomas.

The way he pulled out of the challenge, the way he didn't really have much of a go at Thomas after.

Given our play off chances were hanging by a thread it was pretty disheartening to see such lack of commitment and indifference.

Totally agree

You can't just blame Thomas. It was Thomas's awful error, but there was still a chance for Collins to redeem the situation and he failed very, very badly.

That wasn't even a token effort to try and stop the forward was it.

He might as well just have taken a side step and pointed towards the net.

It was a shocker for sure and I haven't been hard on Collins at all really this season.

Bottom line is, we could do with better

WestEndAgro · May 7, 2024

Jack Butland would be my shout, no idea if it's viable but he's certainly good enough & experienced enough.
He's under contract at Ranger's though so probably impossible.
But that's the level we should be looking at.

shmmeee · May 7, 2024

clint van damme said:
Given our play off chances were hanging by a thread it was pretty disheartening to see such lack of commitment and indifference.

My issue with all the Barnsley lads TBH. Attitude just seems poor.

clint van damme · May 7, 2024

shmmeee said:
My issue with all the Barnsley lads TBH. Attitude just seems poor.

I'm not all in on your theory about them, but I wouldnt dismiss it either.

skybluecam · May 7, 2024

Drew up some quick stat comparisons, take what you will from it.

baldy · May 7, 2024

All the blabbering on & on & the various stat attacks about Collins ffs - bottom line is he's not good enough - we've got eyes no need for the endless dull stats

Adge · May 7, 2024

Mucca Mad Boys said:
Enjoy. Bradley Collins has the highest shot saved % on 76.5% and second highest shot stops per 90m (Fotmob).

@clint van damme for good measure.

Championship Goalkeeper Stats | FBref.com

Check out Goalkeeper Stats for the 2023-2024 Championship season.

fbref.com

Championship Goalkeeper Stats | FBref.com

Check out Goalkeeper Stats for the 2024-2025 Championship season.

fbref.com

Championship 2024/2025 top rated players, goals, assists and other stats

Championship stats 2024/2025 including top scorers, assists, player ratings, and more

www.fotmob.com

Oh-does that mean he is a good shot stopper?

skybluecam · May 7, 2024

Otis said:
Hmm....not sure on those stats at all.

So, let's say Collins saves a shot, but it's a weak shot and then a weak parry from him that goes straight to one of the opposition players and they score.

Would I be right in saying that, that would go towards his saving stats, but it wouldn't necessarily go down as an error?

What if there is a goal scored from a corner and he stays rooted to his line and doesn't come for the ball? That wouldn't go down as an error either would it?

1. Would go down as an error leading to shot

2. Would count against crosses stopped

skybluecam · May 7, 2024

WestEndAgro said:
Jack Butland would be my shout, no idea if it's viable but he's certainly good enough & experienced enough.
He's under contract at Ranger's though so probably impossible.
But that's the level we should be looking at.

It's obviously impossible. And if that's the level we're looking at we won't get anyone in. He's got 9 caps for England ffs! People are so deluded about some of the realities of the budget we have and the type of player we can attract.

hamertime · May 7, 2024

The only stat I need is they could produce a whole episode of Danny bakers own goals and gaffes on Collins.

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · May 7, 2024

Mucca Mad Boys said:
That’s a stat for shot difficulty which measures how easy/difficult the shots have been for the GK and Collins and Allsopp have faced the ‘easiest’ chances.

It’s why you measure xG as well. The premise of this stat that of all the shots a GK has had to face, how goals should they have conceded. So you have to give GKs their due because it’s the most thankless position.

There’s a reason the ‘Moneyball’ approach to scouting has overtaken the old school approach.

With data you can compare and contrast 100s of players at a time. Performance needs objective measurements.

So the strategy should be pretty simple.

1. Do objective analysis (data) on loads of players to identify targets.
2. Do subjective analysis (scouting) on those targets to look for any other abilities/deficiencies that the data might not highlight, as well as doing background on personality and lifestyle.

Mucca Mad Boys · May 7, 2024

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
So the strategy should be pretty simple.

1. Do objective analysis (data) on loads of players to identify targets.
2. Do subjective analysis (scouting) on those targets to look for any other abilities/deficiencies that the data might not highlight, as well as doing background on personality and lifestyle.

This is what the club does.

Ironically, the signings that attract the most negative comments from fans; JDS, Collins, Palmer were brought in on AV’s recommendation. The most subjective analysis, he used to coach them and in some cases, knows the players exceptionally well. See Collins story about how AV help him cope with the loss of his dad.

The eye test is a funny thing and because ‘beauty is in the eye of the beholder’ is generally the reason data analysis (‘Moneyball’) has taken over.

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