New number one needed (2 Viewers)

[shmmeee]

It's not a case of 'outing' other positions,

Look, I long ago gave up on fixing autocorrect errors.

 

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[clint van damme]

Look, I long ago gave up on fixing autocorrect errors.

Wasn't sure what it was supposed to be

 

[shmmeee]

Wasn't sure what it was supposed to be

“Put”

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

It's not a case of 'outing' other positions, but you prioritise the keeper and work from there.
It mine mean eating in to the budget for other positions, but like I said, that's why you have to be smart when recruiting.

That’s completely the wrong way around…

This season has ended on a whimper because we have a thin squad and it got too much for them.

Again, if you can win the golden glove with Ben Wilson in goal, GK really isn’t as important as you think.

The Mourinho and SAF maxims about GKs being worth 12-15 points is outdated and predates developments in analytics.

 

[clint van damme]

“Put”

Right, well I put keeper top of the list for us at the moment.

 

[clint van damme]

You'll always get anomalies.
France won the world cup with Stefan Givarch, strikers aren't that important.
And they may be from another era, but I'll still take what Ferguson and Mourhino say over some of the experts on here!

 

[Saddlebrains]

I agree, the amount of gift wrap goals we’ve conceded in April is a joke.

Correct me if I’m wrong here @Saddlebrains, something has probably changed from MR’s perspective too. The early prospective targets you listed did not include a GK and now we’re looking at a new Number 1. Was this always the case or a new development?

Reading between the lines, I would say say yes.

Sweeper keepers are in fashion now and they will make mistakes - look at Raya gifting an absolute howler v Spurs the other day. If we sign a keeper, they will be playing that way.

New development. He knows we need a better keeper, and Wilson we be going to make room for this

 

[Deity]

That’s completely the wrong way around…

This season has ended on a whimper because we have a thin squad and it got too much for them.

Again, if you can win the golden glove with Ben Wilson in goal, GK really isn’t as important as you think.

The Mourinho and SAF maxims about GKs being worth 12-15 points is outdated and predates developments in analytics.

I understand the point but it is hard to ignore the fact that Pep changed Hart the moment he arrived, Klopp broke the transfer record on Allison, Arteta has changed Ramsdale for Raya, Howe brought in Pope as one of his first signings etc etc

All of this tells us that modern day elite managers still think Keepers are critical to success. They might want different things from them in this era, but they are still critical.

 

[clint van damme]

New development. He knows we need a better keeper, and Wilson we be going to make room for this

Is he aware that that's not what several posters on SBT are saying?
Can you use your contacts to get word to him?

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

You'll always get anomalies.
France won the world cup with Stefan Givarch, strikers aren't that important.
And they may be from another era, but I'll still take what Ferguson and Mourhino say over some of the experts on here!

If you really believe that and have looked into the stats, you wouldn’t hold the opinions you do on Collins. He’s saved more goals than he’s let in and one of the highest match ratings in the league. What you’re saying doesn’t hold up against the numbers.

Specifically, relating to him starting ahead of Wilson.

Have a play around with the website below, note the respective stats for Meslier & Bazunu. Spoiler: they’re really bad and hasn’t stop Leeds and Southampton getting above 80+ points.

Championship Goalkeeper Stats | FBref.com

Check out Goalkeeper Stats for the 2024-2025 Championship season.

fbref.com

 

[Mild-Mannered Janitor]

You'll always get anomalies.
France won the world cup with Stefan Givarch, strikers aren't that important.
And they may be from another era, but I'll still take what Ferguson and Mourhino say over some of the experts on here!

Agree, that anomaly though on a world cup was less than 10 games, you need better for a 40+ game competition

 

[Mild-Mannered Janitor]

If you really believe that and have looked into the stats, you wouldn’t hold the opinions you do on Collins. He’s saved more goals than he’s let in and one of the highest match ratings in the league. What you’re saying doesn’t hold up against the numbers.

Specifically, relating to him starting ahead of Wilson.

Have a play around with the website below, note the respective stats for Meslier & Bazunu. Spoiler: they’re really bad and hasn’t stop Leeds and Southampton getting above 80+ points.

Championship Goalkeeper Stats | FBref.com

Check out Goalkeeper Stats for the 2024-2025 Championship season.

fbref.com

Surely every keeper has saved more than they have let in, that would be an unbelievably bad team if they had let more in than they saved. Even the Sheff Utd keeper this year has made more than 100 saves despite letting in that amount of goals

 

[Deity]

If you really believe that and have looked into the stats, you wouldn’t hold the opinions you do on Collins. He’s saved more goals than he’s let in and one of the highest match ratings in the league. What you’re saying doesn’t hold up against the numbers.

Specifically, relating to him starting ahead of Wilson.

Have a play around with the website below, note the respective stats for Meslier & Bazunu. Spoiler: they’re really bad and hasn’t stop Leeds and Southampton getting above 80+ points.

Championship Goalkeeper Stats | FBref.com

Check out Goalkeeper Stats for the 2024-2025 Championship season.

fbref.com

But neither team have fulfilled their potential total this season either. Play offs isn’t a success for relegated clubs, it’s the absolute minimum expectation.

 

[Deleted member 9744]

Why do the stats indicate otherwise?

OK. Show us the stats.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

New development. He knows we need a better keeper, and Wilson we be going to make room for this

For what it’s worth, I agree. Especially if we want to progress and it probably isn’t the number 1 priority as this season shown we had too thin a squad.

I just don’t like the toxic narrative a lot of people have towards Collins. It’s the same with Burge, apparently not good enough for L2 yet many years later is an established L1 GK.

 

[Deity]

For what it’s worth, I agree. Especially if we want to progress and it probably isn’t the number 1 priority as this season shown we had too thin a squad.

I just don’t like the toxic narrative a lot of people have towards Collins. It’s the same with Burge, apparently not good enough for L2 yet many years later is an established L1 GK.

To be fair for most fans the lens on a player is very short.

Are they good enough now ? will they be good enough next season ? If the answer is no we write them off as not good enough. We are not saying that can’t develop over time to be good just that they don’t take us forward in the short term and therefore we should seek better.

 

[Winny the Bish]

I reckon if you asked fans of every Championship club, at least 18/24 would say they think they could sign a better keeper.

Meslier was linked with Barcelona and PSG 2 years ago and Leeds fans hate him now. Burnley spent £20m on englands best young keeper and he’s been dropped. They also spent £2.5m on a full international from Man City and he’s been even worse.

Finding good goalkeepers is hard. Even the best ones make mistakes. It’s not as simple as saying “right let’s spend £2-3m on one and we’ll be fine.”

 

[BlueSkiesForever]

New development. He knows we need a better keeper, and Wilson we be going to make room for this

Great news, Wilson definitely needs to be got shot off and then Collins can become the number 2. We need some proper solidity at the back, a keeper that our defenders can trust, I think we’ll see an improvement in a lot of our players if they know they can trust the geezer behind them.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Surely every keeper has saved more than they have let in, that would be an unbelievably bad team if they had let more in than they saved. Even the Sheff Utd keeper this year has made more than 100 saves despite letting in that amount of goals

Have a look at the stats from the link I posted, a lot of GKs have conceded more goals than they should have. There’s a glossary of what each field means.

I’ll use Cov as an example:

As a team, our xG ‘post-shot’ for goals conceded is 52.1 goals, and the goals we’ve conceded (non-FK and penalties) is 55. Therefore, on this metric, we’ve conceded 2.9 goals than we should have.

We’ve had two GKs this term, let’s see how they’ve faired based on all the shots each GK has faced:

1) Wilson - PSxG is 21.3, he conceded 25 goals (excluding FK & PK) so he conceded 3.7 more goals than he should have.

2) Collins - PSxG is 30.9, he conceded 30 goals (excluding FK and PK) so he conceded 0.9 goal less than he should have.

I hope this is helpful and might be an interesting visual for anyone interested.

 

[clint van damme]

If you really believe that and have looked into the stats, you wouldn’t hold the opinions you do on Collins. He’s saved more goals than he’s let in and one of the highest match ratings in the league. What you’re saying doesn’t hold up against the numbers.

Specifically, relating to him starting ahead of Wilson.

Have a play around with the website below, note the respective stats for Meslier & Bazunu. Spoiler: they’re really bad and hasn’t stop Leeds and Southampton getting above 80+ points.

Championship Goalkeeper Stats | FBref.com

Check out Goalkeeper Stats for the 2024-2025 Championship season.

fbref.com

Been better than Wilson is nothing to shout about.
He's responsible for a string of errors, we need better and it seems Robins agrees.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

OK. Show us the stats.

Enjoy. Bradley Collins has the highest shot saved % on 76.5% and second highest shot stops per 90m (Fotmob).

@clint van damme for good measure.

Championship Goalkeeper Stats | FBref.com

Check out Goalkeeper Stats for the 2023-2024 Championship season.

fbref.com

Championship Goalkeeper Stats | FBref.com

Check out Goalkeeper Stats for the 2024-2025 Championship season.

fbref.com

Championship 2024/2025 top rated players, goals, assists and other stats

Championship stats 2024/2025 including top scorers, assists, player ratings, and more

www.fotmob.com

 

[TomRad85]

Been better than Wilson is nothing to shout about.
He's responsible for a string of errors, we need better and it seems Robins agrees.

You're right, we need a new keeper. But for the sake of petty forum arguments its still interesting to see. I come down on the side of Collins over Wilson too, think Wilson is a honking keeper. He'll be gone and Collins will start next season as our number 2 is the hope.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

 

[Grendel]

Stats are one thing but using our eyes to see the variety of embarassing goals we concede is another.

If the stats suggest Collins is one of the top keepers in the league then the analysis has to be questioned

 

[TomRad85]

If the stats suggest Collins is one of the top keepers in the league then the analysis has to be questioned

Absolutely. Proves there's still something to be said for the eye test and not recruiting just from graphs and charts. That said he's obviously preferable to the alternative.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

 

[SHUNT31]

If you really believe that and have looked into the stats, you wouldn’t hold the opinions you do on Collins. He’s saved more goals than he’s let in and one of the highest match ratings in the league. What you’re saying doesn’t hold up against the numbers.

Specifically, relating to him starting ahead of Wilson.

Have a play around with the website below, note the respective stats for Meslier & Bazunu. Spoiler: they’re really bad and hasn’t stop Leeds and Southampton getting above 80+ points.

Championship Goalkeeper Stats | FBref.com

Check out Goalkeeper Stats for the 2024-2025 Championship season.

fbref.com

I am a pro stat person but I’m sorry I trust my eyes more when it comes to Collins. He is absolutely wank. He is not convincing in the slightest when it comes to making saves. Everything is awkward.

 

[Grendel]

Enjoy. Bradley Collins has the highest shot saved % on 76.5% and second highest shot stops per 90m (Fotmob).

@clint van damme for good measure.

Championship Goalkeeper Stats | FBref.com

Check out Goalkeeper Stats for the 2023-2024 Championship season.

fbref.com

Championship Goalkeeper Stats | FBref.com

Check out Goalkeeper Stats for the 2024-2025 Championship season.

fbref.com

Championship 2024/2025 top rated players, goals, assists and other stats

Championship stats 2024/2025 including top scorers, assists, player ratings, and more

www.fotmob.com

Arsenal have the second worse keeper and Burnley the second best it Who is the best goalkeeper in the Premier League in 2023/24?

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

If the stats suggest Collins is one of the top keepers in the league then the analysis has to be questioned

Well, what does the data analytics community know that Grendel doesn’t?

It does show that Collins has had the ‘easiest’ difficulty of shots faced alongside Allsop so really Collins should be performing better. Equally, the argument he’s one of the worst GKs we’ve had for years just doesn’t make sense.

 

[Deleted member 9744]

Have a look at the stats from the link I posted, a lot of GKs have conceded more goals than they should have. There’s a glossary of what each field means.

I’ll use Cov as an example:

As a team, our xG ‘post-shot’ for goals conceded is 52.1 goals, and the goals we’ve conceded (non-FK and penalties) is 55. Therefore, on this metric, we’ve conceded 2.9 goals than we should have.

We’ve had two GKs this term, let’s see how they’ve faired based on all the shots each GK has faced:

1) Wilson - PSxG is 21.3, he conceded 25 goals (excluding FK & PK) so he conceded 3.7 more goals than he should have.

2) Collins - PSxG is 30.9, he conceded 30 goals (excluding FK and PK) so he conceded 1 goal less than he should have.

I hope this is helpful and might be an interesting visual for anyone interested.

I must admit I wasn't impressed with him all season but there was a marked deterioration in his play in the last 10 or so games. Do you have the stats for that period?

 

[Grendel]

Well, what does the data analytics community know that Grendel doesn’t?

It does show that Collins has had the ‘easiest’ difficulty of shots faced alongside Allsop so really Collins should be performing better. Equally, the argument he’s one of the worst GKs we’ve had for years just doesn’t make sense.

Have arsenal the second worst keeper in the league?

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Have arsenal the second worst keeper in the league?

That’s not what the stats are saying at all and you know it. Shows how much you read because it’s out of 31 GKs, not 20 and Ramsdale is ranked 19/31 and Raya is ranked 21st.

The GKs playing for mid table / lower table teams are always over represented partly because they face more shots than the GKs playing for best teams i.e. Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool.

 

[Grendel]

That’s not what the stats are saying at all and you know it. Shows how much you read because it’s out of 31 GKs, not 20 and Ramsdale is ranked 19/31 and Raya is ranked 21st.

The GKs playing for mid table / lower table teams are always over represented partly because they face more shots than the GKs playing for best teams i.e. Arsenal, Man City and Liverpool.

I looked purely at the top 20 but if Collins has faced more shots it’s not automatically saying he’s a better keeper does it?

 

[Mild-Mannered Janitor]

The stats are accurate but it doesn't cover the whole picture of what we see in games. Some errors have completely cost us complete games so not a standard missed save, what do you count on stats for Hull's third goal or QPR's second?
Commanding your box etc is not truly covered.

 

[MalcSB]

Have a look at the stats from the link I posted, a lot of GKs have conceded more goals than they should have. There’s a glossary of what each field means.

I’ll use Cov as an example:

As a team, our xG ‘post-shot’ for goals conceded is 52.1 goals, and the goals we’ve conceded (non-FK and penalties) is 55. Therefore, on this metric, we’ve conceded 2.9 goals than we should have.

We’ve had two GKs this term, let’s see how they’ve faired based on all the shots each GK has faced:

1) Wilson - PSxG is 21.3, he conceded 25 goals (excluding FK & PK) so he conceded 3.7 more goals than he should have.

2) Collins - PSxG is 30.9, he conceded 30 goals (excluding FK and PK) so he conceded 0.9 goal less than he should have.

I hope this is helpful and might be an interesting visual for anyone interested.

As someone once said, there are lies, damned lies and statistics.

All of us will have seen with our own eyes that Collins has let in more than 1 goal that he shouldn’t have - several in fact.
Given the evidence of what we have seen, perhaps what the stats really show is that if Collins
a) stopped throwing the ball in to his own net
b) stopped punching the ball to opponents
c) had more physical presence in the area
d) anything else anyone might want to add
he might be a pretty good goal keeper

 

[Otis]

Is he aware that that's not what several posters on SBT are saying?
Can you use your contacts to get word to him?

And also to make sure he tells the players they were only pretend tired.

 

[Otis]

To be fair for most fans the lens on a player is very short.

Are they good enough now ? will they be good enough next season ? If the answer is no we write them off as not good enough. We are not saying that can’t develop over time to be good just that they don’t take us forward in the short term and therefore we should seek better.