I think it's more relevant to how our season is likely to finish to look at the next 5 games.
Southend, Rochdale, Rotherham, Sunderland, Ipswich.
If we can get 8+ points from those games, it will leave us requiring approx. 20 to 22 points from the remaining 10 games, and we will have played all the serious contenders except Peterborough, who have to be outsiders at this point due the amount of games they have left.
Wycombe and Oxford I think have too much to do now unless their form changes drastically.