Firstly, in those 3 games you quote, we were playing 4-2-3-1. So Fleck and Vincelot had Murphy, Cole, and Maddison playing relatively narrow as a 3 in front of them, with Armstrong ahead of them. We are very much playing 4-4-2 this season and Vincenti starts very wide as does Jones and both naturally move inside. The 2nd key difference is that we'd been in L1 for a few years so we weren't seen as much of a scalp - teams were coming to play football and win. Whereas in L2 most teams have been happy with a point and the majority have played long ball because of the nature of the division.
This 4-4-2 formation has looked at it's best against Notts County and Carlisle which is no coincidence. Both those teams tried to play football and to win which left much more space for us to play in. Where I have been critical of the 4-4-2 with 2 defensive midfielders is against the negative teams set up not to lose (Port Vale, Newport, Chesterfield, Grimsby, Yeovil after we conceded). Here is an example of how we are set up against the poorer teams and I'll try to highlight a few characteristics of our play and where it's subsequentlybreaking down:
View attachment 8014
The Set up
* So firstly our back 4 has been playing pretty deeply so far this season, probably through fear of the long ball over the top.
* Jones (7) plays quite high and wide whereas Vincenti (11) is usually a bit deeper and wide and his height used as an outlet from goal kicks.
* Doyle (8) and Kelly (6) have been very deep protecting the back 4 and picking up the 2nd ball and knock downs when the opposition send the ball long.
* Jones' forward position on the pitch leaves a lot of room for Grimmer (2) to get forward (see blue arrow), which is why he has appeared much more attacking than Stokes who doesn't look fit enough to go past Vincenti consistently.
* Our strikers have played quite classically - McNulty (9) a bit higher than Beavon (10) who has mostly tried to move defenders around with lateral movement.
The consequences
On top of our formation I've then dropped some random red opposition, set up for a long ball draw - 2 banks of 4 not far from their own box with 2 big lumps (9 and 10) to aim at. I've then futher highlighted in the red oval, the absolutely huge gap in the middle of the pitch that it leaves us.
* It's easy for 'Red 3' to step up (red arrow) and double up on Jones (7) together with 'Red 11' which is why he was stifled for a few games (Newport onwards). Ideally you'd want Grimmer (2) going past Jones (7) so that he takes a man away from Jones leaving him 1 on 1 but a combination of the deep defence and Jones' high positioning means he's got an awful long way to go each time. Quite often then Jones either dribbles unsupported into 2 players or checks and plays backwards to Grimmer. Kelly (6) in the meantime drops into Grimmer's hole at right back as cover and so momentum completely breaks down as the only pass inside is to Doyle who can have 'Red 6, 8 and 9' on him by then or back into the back 4.
* Kelly or Doyle then get the ball from the back 4 just short of halfway but there's no blue shirt in the oval to pass to, so they play what looks like a nice looking 30 yard pass onto Vincenti's (11) head, but he's completely isolated (Stokes doesn't support, no pass inside as Kelly and Doyle are deep and miles away) so no-one gets onto his knock downs and people start to think he's shit.
* Another consequence: Beavon starts dropping deeper and deeper for the ball. The gap is now huge between our strikers and Beavon is still surrounded by Red 6 and 8 plus his marker Red 5 if he goes with him.
The fix
A lot of people (me included) were calling for Andreu in midfield at the expense of Doyle or Kelly but Robins clearly wants them both there for defensive cover and experience and after 5 clean sheets in 7 games you can't really blame him. Robins has definitely recognised the issue we have in breaking teams down though - in the last two games he's made tactical changes at half time to try and combat it, mainly by pushing the defence higher up the pitch which squashes the red oval by bringing the whole team closer together. He's also spoken in interviews too of the need for the back 4 to be braver. It worked yesterday - Kelly's through ball and Nazon's finish will get the plaudits but it was Vincenti who threaded the ball through to Kelly in the first place and it was possible because Kelly was for once higher than Vincenti on the pitch.
The conclusion
We're going to find more teams playing like Newport/Port Vale than we are Carlisle and we're still to really play well, start high or look incisive against a long ball team at 0-0. As Robins said we really are going to need to be braver against these teams to consistently take maximum points of them.
