Point countdown (16 Viewers)

[Flying Fokker]

Think the way to look at it is how many teams can still realistically finish above us.

As it stands I’d say Norwich and below are now too far behind us.

Norwich could go on a run. We only need a few draws or losses and they are up with us. Bristol, WBA and Blackburn are the same although Blackburn had their flourish before November.

 

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[SkyblueTexan]

With only 10 games left to play, 30 points at stake and 68-70 points being touted as the magic number for making the playoffs, any team with less than 50 points has to go on a mad winning run to make it. I think 5th to maybe 10th are vying for 2 spots.

 

[bigfatronssba]

Norwich could go on a run. We only need a few draws or losses and they are up with us. Bristol, WBA and Blackburn are the same although Blackburn had their flourish before November.

Is it realistic that Norwich will go on a run?

 

[Ricketts]

I think it’s quite likely that we will finish with 86 points.

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

Calling it now, but if we beat Derby, and don't have an injury crisis, I think we'll make the play offs ( even if we pick up next to zilch in the Sunderland, Sheff U and Burnley games). It'll be tight, and people on here will have a meltdown if we lose those 3, but having the players fit for the games post- Burnley, will be key. PUSB!

 

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

Calling it now, but if we beat Derby, and don't have an injury crisis, I think we'll make the play offs ( even if we pick up next to zilch in the Sunderland, Sheff U and Burnley games). It'll be tight, and people on here will have a meltdown if we lose those 3, but having the players fit for the games post- Burnley, will be key. PUSB!

If we lose all three, it certainly raises the question of whether making the playoffs is even worthwhile as all it'll show is that our chances of beating any potential opponent over two legs will be less than slim.

We need to show we can compete.

 

[Ccfcisparks]

If we lose all three, it certainly raises the question of whether making the playoffs is even worthwhile as all it'll show is that our chances of beating any potential opponent over two legs will be less than slim.

We need to show we can compete.

if we lose all 3 5-0 making the playoffs would still be worthwhile yes.

Plymouth beat Liverpool and Brentford over 1 game.

 

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

if we lose all 3 5-0 making the playoffs would still be worthwhile yes.

Plymouth beat Liverpool and Brentford over 1 game.

The dynamics will be completely different.

Relying on exceptions to the rule is one of the laziest arguments you can make.

 

[Ccfcisparks]

The dynamics will be completely different.

Relying on exceptions to the rule is one of the laziest arguments you can make.

You're arguing if we lose the 3 after derby theres no point making the playoffs. Its completely nonsensical.

 

[Captain Dart]

I hope we are not peaking too soon.

 

[Hobo]

Not sure Norwich are that much of a threat tbh. Their form has been pretty average over the past 6-10 games and their run in isn't great.

People were saying that about Cov 10 games ago. 10 games left plenty for teams to play for at the top and bottom.

Form is always changing, otherwise Portsmouth wouldn't have beaten Leeds today and we would still be in the bottom half of the table like we were 10 games ago.

 

[SomersetSB]

Bristol City have Sheffield utd away on Tuesday then Norwich on sky next Friday.
It’ll be interesting.
They’ve also got Burnley and Leeds away and WBA and Sunderland and Watford at home.

 

[DT-R]

I am more worried about us staying injury free.

Guessing that MVE and EMC will miss a few games now. That could really hurt us.

Great that Wright and Sheaf are now back, but we can't afford to lose any more and MVE especially, will be a big loss.

We can't afford to lose MVE, especially if Lamps is adamant on playing Lati there

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[DT-R]

They've got a good squad but they've been terrible for too long to warrant that level of a turnaround.

It's only really Bristol and West Brom that pose any kind of threat to us. Millwall have an outside chance as well if their form continues.

Norwich and Watford too inconsistent, as predicted Blackburn have fallen out of the PO spots and that'll probably stay that way.

After losing today, Leeds won't sit back at Elland road midweek so Millwall will drop points whilst we (hopefully) break more records at Derby.

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[DT-R]

Norwich and WBA are the danger teams for me. So Norwich drawing was good for us and we’ve got a nice buffer now and really should finish above them.

You can’t rest on your laurels, but we really should be looking at catching up to 4th place. A win v Derby and Sunderland could close the gap to 6-7 points (unlikely) with 8 games left. The difference between 4-5th is irrelevant anyway but it’s great for momentum.

It's not just good for momentum. You've got to feel that playing Burnley amd Blades immediately after the intl break, we'll be lucky to get 1 point, so maximum points v Derby and Sunderland would be massive and really relieve the pressure going in to Blades away.

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[bigfatronssba]

Would people consider this season a failure if we make the playoffs but lose in the first round?

I don’t think I would

 

[Ccfcisparks]

Would people consider this season a failure if we make the playoffs but lose in the first round?

I don’t think I would

i dont think anyone would

 

[KenilworthSkyBlue]

You're arguing if we lose the 3 after derby theres no point making the playoffs. Its completely nonsensical.

Hardly. If we lose all 5-0 as you claimed that quite clearly shows we can't compete and there's a slim chance of us besting an opposition over two legs plus another in the final.

Your argument in response was 'WelL PlYmOutH BeAt LiVerPoOI'. Liverpool made 10 changes that day which always was going to leave them vulnerable of losing that game.

But yeah, my argument is the nonsensical one...

 

[covboy9]

I wouldn’t rule out right down to 13th place to make play offs

we got a tough run of games I just hope we attack and not play for draws, draws don’t get you in play offs

 

[covboy9]

I think 15 points will see us in playoffs

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

It's not just good for momentum. You've got to feel that playing Burnley amd Blades immediately after the intl break, we'll be lucky to get 1 point, so maximum points v Derby and Sunderland would be massive and really relieve the pressure going in to Blades away.

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Even if we lost all 3 matches, which I don’t think we will, we’re still odds on to finish in the playoffs. We've got more favourable run in than all the teams around us barring Blackburn whose form is patchy.

A win v Derby and Sunderland and you’d back us to get 2-4 points v Sheff U and Burnley.

 

[edgy]

I hope we are not peaking too soon.

Not worried about that. I don't think we have actually peaked in terms of performance. Results aside, we haven't played constantly well over this run. We are just funding ways to win. Thought the performance against Stoke was pretty poor.

 

[SkyblueTexan]

Would people consider this season a failure if we make the playoffs but lose in the first round?

I don’t think I would

After where we were when MR was sacked, never in my wildest dreams did I think we would make the playoffs. So you know my answer.

 

[theferret]

Not entirely convinced 70 points sees us home. It might, but could well be 72-73, it was last year iirc, although I'm guessing the 6th placed eam was in a slight better position this time last season.You're going to get a couple of teams that go on a run from here. We're likely to have a dip at some point , others might not. Still a long way to go. Momentum is all ours though.

 

[Lamps]

Not entirely convinced 70 points sees us home.

Sheffield United A
Norwich H
Burnley A
Watford H
WBA H
QPR A
Sunderland H
Luton A
Leeds A
Preston H

That's the run in for Bristol City. They're in 7th and on 53 points, 3 points behind us. To reach 71 points they need 6 wins from 10 games. They have 1st, 2nd and 3rd away with 4th and 6th at home. They just drew with Hull 1-1 at home against 10 men from the 14th minute.

Blackburn 52 points Middlesbrough 50 points. Both in poor form. Blackburn need 6 wins from 10 for 70 points. Middlesbrough need 7 wins from 10 for 71 points. I'd be very surprised if we need as many as 70 points for the playoffs. We're already on 56 points. 9 wins from the last 10. We only need 5 wins out of the next 10 to reach 71 points.

There's a good chance that just 1 point from our next 3 games could keep us in the top 6. Beat Derby then the playoffs start to look like a formality.

 

[Warwickhunt]

Not entirely convinced 70 points sees us home. It might, but could well be 72-73, it was last year iirc, although I'm guessing the 6th placed eam was in a slight better position this time last season.You're going to get a couple of teams that go on a run from here. We're likely to have a dip at some point , others might not. Still a long way to go. Momentum is all ours though.

I think we are in a dip already after the Oxford and Stoke games we did not play well at all and midfield scoring is dragging us through! We will click against Derby

 

[Sick Boy]

Would people consider this season a failure if we make the playoffs but lose in the first round?

I don’t think I would

No. Even if we end up finishing outside of the play-offs, I'd still consider it a success and would expect us to have a proper go next season.

 

[Otis]

I think we are in a dip already after the Oxford and Stoke games we did not play well at all and midfield scoring is dragging us through! We will click against Derby

Well yeah, that can well happen.

You don't play so well, but are still picking up wins, that can then translate to better performances on the pitch, as the confidence is then high.

The reverse can obviously happen too of course

You don't play so well, but pick up wins, but then carry on not playing so well and start losing.

This run has to end sometime, but I think we will get at least a draw out of Derby.

 

[play_in_skyblue_stripes]

Not entirely convinced 70 points sees us home. It might, but could well be 72-73, it was last year iirc, although I'm guessing the 6th placed eam was in a slight better position this time last season.You're going to get a couple of teams that go on a run from here. We're likely to have a dip at some point , others might not. Still a long way to go. Momentum is all ours though.

I disagree, 70 points will be enough although perhaps having a low goal difference then 71 would be advantageous to guarantee it.

Derby away midweek will be hard and personally doubt we will win that. Our fixtures are overall fairly tricky. The only game that that appears comfortable against a team 'on the beach' will be Portsmouth at home. The rest all have something on them at this stage.

Something we should remember about remaining schedule. Our recent set of fixtures on 'paper' have been kind to us. However the point is, we made the most of it and took maximum points out of them (Leeds obviously excluded). Other teams may have slightly easier games but will they capitalise on them like we have?

 

[Sick Boy]

Ideally, we need at least 4 points from the next 2.

 

[SkyblueTexan]

I disagree, 70 points will be enough although perhaps having a low goal difference then 71 would be advantageous to guarantee it.

Derby away midweek will be hard and personally doubt we will win that. Our fixtures are overall fairly tricky. The only game that that appears comfortable against a team 'on the beach' will be Portsmouth at home. The rest all have something on them at this stage.

After watching Portsmouth yesterday vs Leeds, I doubt that game will be easy. Granted they are excellent at home and mediocre away, but they have a good manager and a decent squad for a newly promoted team.

 

[covcity4life]

I hope we are not peaking too soon.

I understand your point but If we didn't do it now we wouldn't be in playoff contention. it's not like we have cemented it with 2 months to go

 

[covcity4life]

Guy feeling is we will win 3-4 of next 7 and that's enough to keep us bang in it going into final fixtures of season

 

[skybluelee]

If the chasing back maintain their 'last 6 form' they'd end up with:

West Brom 73
Bristol C 71
Blackburn 64
Watford 62
Norwich 61
Millwall 61
Middlebrough 60
Sheff Weds 58

If they maintain their last 'top 10 form' it would be:

Bristol C 71
West Brom 70
Millwall 66
Blackburn 62
Norwich 62
Watford 60
Middlebrough 59
Sheff Weds 59

Basically there would have to be a significant shift in the form of everybody to get close to us other than Bristol City or West Brom.

The home match v West Brom is going to be huge isn't it?...

 

[skybluelee]

Oh and just for fun if we maintain our last 10 form we'll end up with 83.