Points to survive (1 Viewer)

Ccfcisparks · Jan 27, 2021

I know we haven't won this game yet but I've been doing some reading.

The lowest amount of points to survive the Championship in the last 10 years is 41. The highest amount is 55.

We are currently 4 wins from having a good chance of staying up. 8 will see us stay up for certain.

Win the next 2 and dare I say we will have done it.

Barnsley · Jan 27, 2021

46 might be enough this season.

Ccfcisparks · Jan 27, 2021

Barnsley said:
46 might be enough this season.

46 would require 5 wins and 2 draws. Pretty reasonable.

SeaSeeEffCee · Jan 27, 2021

Hopefully Dabo isn’t out for long, that could be significant.

Brighton Sky Blue · Jan 27, 2021

Still ahead of target to reach 50, got another 6 in the current block with 1 more to play

Legia Sky Blue · Jan 27, 2021

Ccfcisparks said:
I know we haven't won this game yet but I've been doing some reading.

The lowest amount of points to survive the Championship in the last 10 years is 41. The highest amount is 55.

We are currently 4 wins from having a good chance of staying up. 8 will see us stay up for certain.

Win the next 2 and dare I say we will have done it.

That 55 season was out of the ordinary - Peterborough were really unlucky to go down with 54 points. In only one other season has over 50 points been required to stay up in the last 10 years, and the majority of the time averaging a point a game (46 points) would see you safe. Looking at the table right now I think 50 points will definitely be safe, which means us averaging a point a game for the rest of the season, which I would hope we can achieve.

Brighton Sky Blue · Jan 27, 2021

Legia Sky Blue said:
That 55 season was out of the ordinary - Peterborough were really unlucky to go down with 54 points. In only one other season has over 50 points been required to stay up in the last 10 years, and the majority of the time averaging a point a game (46 points) would see you safe. Looking at the table right now I think 50 points will definitely be safe, which means us averaging a point a game for the rest of the season, which I would hope we can achieve.

On course for 53 at the moment. Forest/Derby/Rotherham all on a point a game

Ccfcisparks · Jan 27, 2021

Beat Blues next game and we have a 6 point gap on them with a game in hand. Let’s start putting some distance between us and others.

Brighton Sky Blue · Jan 27, 2021

Ccfcisparks said:
Beat Blues next game and we have a 6 point gap on them with a game in hand. Let’s start putting some distance between us and others.

Level on games played now.

Ccfcisparks · Jan 27, 2021

Brighton Sky Blue said:
Level on games played now.

Oh of course. Still, 6 points ahead of them would be good going.

Liquid Gold · Jan 27, 2021

Win the next two and it’s a huge cushion and then we can afford some losses against teams at the top. Two massively important games then a few where any points are just a bonus.

lord_garrincha · Jan 27, 2021

Liquid Gold said:
Win the next two and it’s a huge cushion and then we can afford some losses against teams at the top. Two massively important games then a few where any points are just a bonus.

It's not impossible. I have been impressed that they have won a good proportion of the 'winnable' games.

Other than Reading (H), there have been no unexpected wins... If we do a couple of them, then it looks good.

Brighton Sky Blue · Jan 27, 2021

Ccfcisparks said:
Oh of course. Still, 6 points ahead of them would be good going.

Just desperately need a few players back from injury, and will need that Scottish lad pronto with Da Costa probably more needed at right back now.

cc84cov · Jan 27, 2021

Brighton Sky Blue said:
Just desperately need a few players back from injury, and will need that Scottish lad pronto with Da Costa probably more needed at right back now.

Can’t see him in a flat 4 his positional awareness has been a bit iratic...I think we go back to a 5 Saturday with fadz coming back in,drop sheaf put Allen alongside O’Hare behind GYO

Londonccfcfan · Jan 27, 2021

lord_garrincha said:
It's not impossible. I have been impressed that they have won a good proportion of the 'winnable' games.

Other than Reading (H), there have been no unexpected wins... If we do a couple of them, then it looks good.

If we look closely at the table at the moment.

12th Barnsley to Wycombe at bottom.

Not done the maths but we would probably finish top of the bottom half in terms of results and points picked up.

Our results vs top 11 is pretty dire. I think 5 points.

Vs bottom 13....24 points in 13/14 games. Pretty phenomenal.

Brighton Sky Blue · Jan 27, 2021

Londonccfcfan said:
If we look closely at the table at the moment.

12th Barnsley to Wycombe at bottom.

Not done the maths but we would probably finish top of the bottom half in terms of results and points picked up.

Our results vs top 11 is pretty dire. I think 5 points.

Vs bottom 13....24 points in 13/14 games. Pretty phenomenal.

As Rotherham showed tonight, those teams in the top 10 aren't unbeatable. Just a bit more belief needed against those sides

Hobo · Jan 28, 2021

The target shouldn't be the minimum. But 50 is a realistic one and should be enough this year.

The danger with this is fans start prescribing set points per game - and melt down when points are dropped.

There are always rogue results in all leagues - Sheff Utd winning away at Man Utd last night. Form goes out of the window towards end of season.

We are in an ok position at the moment and need to just keep chipping away.

Joy Division · Jan 28, 2021

Is staying in this league a bigger achievement than winning the league last season?

Londonccfcfan · Jan 28, 2021

Joy Division said:
Is staying in this league a bigger achievement than winning the league last season?

No for me.

Sky Blue Pete · Jan 28, 2021

Joy Division said:
Is staying in this league a bigger achievement than winning the league last season?

Yea

Londonccfcfan · Jan 28, 2021

Sky Blue Pete said:
Yea

Huh....90% of fans at start of season expected us to stay up at the least.

Less than 10% thought we we would win league 1. I was one of the 5-10% and won almost a grand out of it.

Hobo · Jan 28, 2021

Joy Division said:
Is staying in this league a bigger achievement than winning the league last season?

Not necessarily, but staying in this league is important financially, for status and for a better level of football (even if sometimes that is provided by the opposition).

It is a shame some fans wont let themselves to just enjoy the season. Its the roller coaster of success v disapointment that actually makes sport great.

tisza · Jan 28, 2021

Joy Division said:
Is staying in this league a bigger achievement than winning the league last season?

Not as enjoyable but probably a bigger achievement just down to budgets particularly when it comes to squad depth. We've seen all sorts of players we couldn't possibly afford on other teams' benches when we've played tehm.

NortonSkyBlue · Jan 28, 2021

Joy Division said:
Is staying in this league a bigger achievement than winning the league last season?

Even If we finish just outside the bottom three we are 4 places advanced on 19-20 and still in the championship so yes it’s a bigger achievement. It may not be rewarded with a trophy but it gives you a chance to continue the progress the following season and build upon.
When you consider the budgets of the teams in this division we are punching well above our weight and some of our supporters should really check in with reality because you know that it is only a bad result away from the usual suspects frothing at the mouth.

AOM · Jan 28, 2021

tisza said:
Not as enjoyable but probably a bigger achievement just down to budgets particularly when it comes to squad depth. We've seen all sorts of players we couldn't possibly afford on other teams' benches when we've played tehm.

Agree with this.
Also think we haven't felt the full effect of being back in the Championship as we're all missing out on the big crowds at the big teams we hadn't been experiencing in the lower leagues

Sky Blue Pete · Jan 28, 2021

Londonccfcfan said:
Huh....90% of fans at start of season expected us to stay up at the least.

Less than 10% thought we we would win league 1. I was one of the 5-10% and won almost a grand out of it.

Most fans have no idea of the challenge of this division with the salary budget we have. Think the pandemic overall is helpful to us as those with huge holes in income will be thinking what are we going to do to pay the large contracts we have?

I’m pretty certain that MR would feel keeping us up would be a bigger achievement than winning league 1 but it’s maybe a good question for Clive or Martin to ask

AFCCOVENTRY · Jan 28, 2021

Joy Division said:
Is staying in this league a bigger achievement than winning the league last season?

Of course. It’s a higher league and our first season back for a very long time. Stay up and we can build for next season and improve.

Malaka · Jan 28, 2021

Brighton Sky Blue said:
Still ahead of target to reach 50, got another 6 in the current block with 1 more to play

I agree, 50 will keep us safe and have a platform to build on for next season

Brighton Sky Blue · Jan 28, 2021

tisza said:
Not as enjoyable but probably a bigger achievement just down to budgets particularly when it comes to squad depth. We've seen all sorts of players we couldn't possibly afford on other teams' benches when we've played tehm.

Wednesday’s team last night much more expensively assembled but plain dogshit despite us missing over half a team!

Brighton Sky Blue · Jan 28, 2021

Malaka said:
I agree, 50 will keep us safe and have a platform to build on for next season

Rotherham through to Forest are all on a point a game, 50 will be enough I think and we do at least have Millwall at home on the final day.

Londonccfcfan · Jan 28, 2021

Sky Blue Pete said:
Most fans have no idea of the challenge of this division with the salary budget we have. Think the pandemic overall is helpful to us as those with huge holes in income will be thinking what are we going to do to pay the large contracts we have?

I’m pretty certain that MR would feel keeping us up would be a bigger achievement than winning league 1 but it’s maybe a good question for Clive or Martin to ask

I agree the pandemic has helped.

But like i said vast majority fans expected us to stay up including bookies.

The vast majority didnt think we would win league 1.

Not disagreeing but the salary budget argument still applied in league 1, we over achieved big time to win it. Imho.

Sky Blue Pete · Jan 28, 2021

Londonccfcfan said:
I agree the pandemic has helped.

But like i said vast majority fans expected us to stay up including bookies.

The vast majority didnt think we would win league 1.

Not disagreeing but the salary budget argument still applied in league 1, we over achieved big time to win it. Imho.

I agree champions last year was a huge achievement

Londonccfcfan · Jan 28, 2021

Sky Blue Pete said:
I agree champions last year was a huge achievement

Staying up this season is meeting realistic expectations at any point in the season. Being hampered by injuries could be factored in, but its not an overachievement if we stay up.

lifeskyblue · Jan 28, 2021

Difficult to judge. I think 52 should see us safe. Teams may yet get points deductions for irregularities. All we can do is amass as many points as possible so that on final day we are not looking over our shoulders and can relax a little

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Londonccfcfan · Jan 28, 2021

lifeskyblue said:
Difficult to judge. I think 52 should see us safe. Teams may yet get points deductions for irregularities. All we can do is amass as many points as possible so that on final day we are not looking over our shoulders and can relax a little

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

62 wont be far off 7th place.

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