Sky_Blue_Daz
Well-Known Member
Right well I’m getting a can out of the fridge
Correct me if I'm wrong, but if we finish 5th won't we be playing Middlesborough in the play-offs? They've already secured their spot so they have nothing to play for, and might rest players for pending play-offs, hopefully against us.
I would say that counts for nothing on the last day and it always throws up a number of surprising resultsI feel like were gonna need that point, preston record at home poor and Sunderland away record very good.
And Millwall will be at home last day with the crowd behind them, they have a very good home record and Blackburn away record quite poor.
Even if we lose and go up it will be our fault if Sunderland finish 7thIts conceivable that 4 teams could end on 69 points.
If Blackburn draw on Monday. Takes them to 66 points.
Sunderland and West Brom are on 66.
Millwall are on 68.
So that leaves the last game permutations as-
If Blackburn win they are on 69.
If Sunderland win they are on 69
If West Brom win they are in 69
If Millwall draw they are on 69
If city lose we are on 69.
Now with Millwall playing Blackburn only a win can do it for Blackburn if they draw in Mondays game. Lose and they out of the final day shoot out.
But it could conceivably happen that goal difference decides who makes the play offs.
As there are 5 teams going for it and 2 places.
A city draw or win and we can’t be caught.
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Goal difference doesn’t matter V Sunderland. If they win and we lose they would overtake usCoventry remains 5th place:
Coventry finishes 6th place:
- Coventry wins against Middlesbrough OR
- Coventry draws against Middlesbrough, and Millwall doesn't win
Coventry finishes 7th place:
- Coventry draws against Middlesbrough, and Millwall wins OR
- Coventry loses against Middlesbrough, Millwall loses or draws, Sunderland and West Brom don't win by enough goals to surpass Coventry's goal difference
Coventry finishes 8th place:
- Coventry loses against Middlesbrough, Millwall wins or draws, and one of Sunderland or West Brom wins, surpassing Coventry's goal difference, while the other doesn't win or doesn't surpass Coventry's goal difference
- Coventry loses against Middlesbrough, Millwall wins or draws, Sunderland and West Brom both win and surpass Coventry's goal difference
Yeh you’re right cause to lose we’d take 1 off our GD and for them to win they need to add one. You outsmarted the AIGoal difference doesn’t matter V Sunderland. If they win and we lose they would overtake us
Not bad for an IrishmanYeh you’re right cause to lose we’d take 1 off our GD and for them to win they need to add one. You outsmarted the AI
Blackburn v Luton tomorrow. If Blackburn don't win they can't catch us. They're 4 points behind us but GD between us is 15 in our favour. A draw would be great for us. They then have Millwall on the last day.Is this right?
For Cov to not make the play offs
They have to lose
2 of Sunderland, West Brom and (Millwall or Blackburn) have to win. Then it comes down to GD.
Millwall draw keeps them below us on both occasions surely?Coventry remains 5th place:
Coventry finishes 6th place:
- Coventry wins against Middlesbrough OR
- Coventry draws against Middlesbrough, and Millwall doesn't win
Coventry finishes 7th place:
- Coventry draws against Middlesbrough, and Millwall wins OR
- Coventry loses against Middlesbrough, Millwall loses or draws, Sunderland lose or draws (edited) and West Brom don't win by enough goals to surpass Coventry's goal difference
Coventry finishes 8th place:
- Coventry loses against Middlesbrough, Millwall wins or draws, and one of Sunderland or West Brom wins, surpassing Coventry's goal difference, while the other doesn't win or doesn't surpass Coventry's goal difference
- Coventry loses against Middlesbrough, Millwall wins or draws, Sunderland and West Brom both win and surpass Coventry's goal difference
It's not an unlikely scenarioIn our bones don't we know that we will suffer a narrow defeat and Sunderland and Millwall (most likely) will pip us?
Late Sunderland winner anyone?
If Millwall draw, they'll finish below us unless we lose by 5 goals (or 4 goals, in the unlikely scenario Millwall draw 4-4 and we fail to score). Our GD and GS is superior to theirs and most of the teams around us.Coventry remains 5th place:
Coventry finishes 6th place:
- Coventry wins against Middlesbrough OR
- Coventry draws against Middlesbrough, and Millwall doesn't win
Coventry finishes 7th place:
- Coventry draws against Middlesbrough, and Millwall wins OR
- Coventry loses against Middlesbrough, Millwall loses or draws, Sunderland lose or draws (edited) and West Brom don't win by enough goals to surpass Coventry's goal difference
Coventry finishes 8th place:
- Coventry loses against Middlesbrough, Millwall wins or draws, and one of Sunderland or West Brom wins, surpassing Coventry's goal difference, while the other doesn't win or doesn't surpass Coventry's goal difference
- Coventry loses against Middlesbrough, Millwall wins or draws, Sunderland and West Brom both win and surpass Coventry's goal difference
Don't agree. We seem to be quite good at letting teams have the ball but not letting them have chances. And we can be good on the break, just need to be better with the final shot. If we HAD to win I think we'd lose our defensive solidity looking for the goal and be more likely to concede.I hate the idea of us only needing a point in the last game, it means we will go there and play it defensive and tight which will invite Middlesborough on to us. Would rather go there needing a win and be on the front foot.
In our bones don't we know that we will suffer a narrow defeat and Sunderland and Millwall (most likely) will pip us?
Late Sunderland winner anyone?
Don't think they will rest players because their opponents in the playoffs will probably be us? Would you weaken your side give the team your likely to play in them the chance to get the upperhand right before you play them.It's great that were even having this conversation with just one game to go. I think we'll need that draw at Boro and they will rest a few of their players for future play-off battles against us.
Blackburn arent very good away , millwalls record against the top 8 is better than the bottom 8 theyve taken points off everyone above them and those just below them and with home advantage are warm favourites to win , that said i dont think you have anything to worry about and i think youll win at middlesbro, its goid for football that this years playoffs will feature sides that werent relegated from the premiership last season , and whoever gets there will deserve toWould be a perfect result for us. Then Blackburn beat Millwall as they should. Easily better than Millwall ATM. Two teams out of the equation.
As long as we don't have a heavy defeat to Middlesbrough it would leave WBA needing a big win away to Swansea to go past us if they beat Norwich....presently winning 2-1. Sunderland would need to beat Preston away who also have an excellent clean sheet record like ourselves to go past us.
Get a point at Middlesbrough and it is all irrelevant. We would be in the playoffs.
We've never won at the Riverside mindA win has put us in a very strong position. Only a heavy loss kicks us out of the playoff hunt. One of Blackburn and Millwall will drop points on the final day so a Blackburn win v Luton and draw v Millwall would keep us in the playoffs due to GD and H2H.
If we have a meltdown and lose by 3 or 4 goals then we could be in trouble but even then, Sunderland, West Brom and Millwall/Blackburn (all 6 points) all need to win. Sunderland need a 3 goal swing (our H2H favours us) and WBA need a 5 goal swing.
Overall, we’re in a good position. Meanwhile, we’ve won two of the last 3 v Middlesborough.
We've never won at the Riverside mind
It’s weird. The vibe pretty much everywhere is that we’ve done it and we’re in, but realistically we’ve got a pretty strong chance of not making it.This thread definitely hasn’t made me feel confident.
Don't think they will rest players because their opponents in the playoffs will probably be us? Would you weaken your side give the team your likely to play in them the chance to get the upperhand right before you play them.
Put it this way - if we had already secured our play-off spot and were playing Boro this weekend - and probably again in the play-offs, would you risk our top players picking up an injury in a game we don't have to win? That the position Boro are in right now, next Sunday is a free hit for them and ideally a rest day for their top players. Why risk them getting injured, regardless of who they play in the play-offs?
But have lost 14 games. They have lost more games than all the top 7 sides other than Millwall. They have lost 15.Just noticed Boro have scored a pretty monstrous 83 goals from 44 games
Like I said in my piece would you want to risk us having a second victory over them this season going into the playoffs looking at it from our point of view 2 wins over them and playing them a third time I would much rather go in having beat them twice than lost.Put it this way - if we had already secured our play-off spot and were playing Boro this weekend - and probably again in the play-offs, would you risk our top players picking up an injury in a game we don't have to win? That the position Boro are in right now, next Sunday is a free hit for them and ideally a rest day for their top players. Why risk them getting injured, regardless of who they play in the play-offs?
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