Astute
Well-Known Member
I agree with you 100%.Bit unfair to call him a cretin. Many people believe that Johnson’s apparent seriousness to resolve the matter or else by 31 Oct has focussed EU minds, for example the WA, which was not up for renegotiation, can now be amended (if it delivers the same outcome/protections to the original backstop)
I find it pretty offensive when people dismiss the removal of No deal as irrelevant by arguing that it isn’t like buying a car, house or ‘fake clobber from turkey’ again, treating people who suggest this as idiots. Most people realise it’s different, however unless you’re involved in the negotiations, how on earth do you know how the EU react to positioning by the UK ? (you don’t !). I know a lot of people (remain and leave) who believe talking No deal off the table would be detrimental to our negotiating position, many of whom I trust the intelligence and judgement of over others that use the alternative argument.
Ps Let’s reverse the argument. Now the EU can pretty much dictate the terms of the extension due to a remain Parliament. If they say two years and labour refuses a vote of no confidence, what are we supposed to do ? In that time we have to continue to contribute the same amount into the EU pot (£15bn last year apparently as our growth is higher than most EU countries). We could therefore ultimately end up paying more than the agreed divorce bill ?! Also, the longer it drags on, the weaker our economic position due to the continued uncertainty and the more likely the public get weary and may accept staying in (after losing the war of attrition), again strengthening the EUs position.
So, if you look at it from the other perspective, in any negotiation you need to be willing and prepared to walk away, even if it means a potential negative impact (as the alternative might be even worse than that negative impact). Unfortunately, we haven’t properly prepared (due to people like Hammond and the noise from remainers saying it’s a waste of money....no it’s not, it’s common sense !)....that doesn’t mean we should rule out the option though.
But many won't. All they want is to remain. And if they can't remain they want us to keep close ties. I also fully agree with this. But both sides want what is best for them.
You have the EU and countries in the EU. They have kept united. But even during them there has been moments when the worry has slipped into the public demain. But they have kept united. This has kept their hand strong.
Then you come to the UK.
A deal that would keep harmony and ties was dismissed by the vast majority three times. Those who wanted out saw it as being kept in. Those who wanted to remain saw it as a way of leaving. So no deal.
Time to stand together? Oh no. Lets have talks. But lets not keep our hand close to our chest. In fact how about giving up our bargaining power. Leaving without a deal isn't allowed. So that means they can offer anything which is well to their advantage as we have to accept it. The priblem is parliament won't let something through that puts us in a massively bad deal. We have tried this already.
The Irish problem was designed to be a problem. They could have got around a table knowing that if they didn't come to an agreement on trade there would be a problem with a border somewhere in/around Ireland. But we have wasted three years arguing about this border. And what this argument is all about is what happens if we don't come to a trade agreement.
Everyone should want a trade agreement. It is in the best interests of all. But where it falls down is what happens in the future. Can we make our own trade deals? If it ends up that we can't make our own trade deals and we still have to pay billions into the EU every year what are we leaving for?
So yes we need our strongest hand when having talks. It doesn't mean we have to go through with it. Just like the EU doesn't have to go through with their threats. Because when it comes ti it they won't want the massive job losses that would come with us leaving without a deal. They are ready with a disaster fund of half a billion to help countries through it all. Half a billion? That would soon be gone. They say about 25,000 jobs would be lost to German car makers alone. And this is the strongest economy in the EU.
It is time to drop the soundbites. Get around a bloody table and talk. Look at the priblems of not ciming to a trade agreement and talk trade. Come to an agreement on hiw much membership should cost us afterwards. And stop looking and acting like spoilt children and act like adults. Try and get the respect back from the public.