The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (37 Viewers)

CCFCSteve · Oct 3, 2019

djr8369 said:
The only way to avoid a border is to keep NI in the CU. If there’s a time limit it’s not a backstop because once it ends there’s nothing in place. If they think they can pull off this new deal of elaborate customs checks at various points using technology then go with the backstop and once we can implement these alternative arrangements the backstop ends anyway.

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I agree DJR...if we lived in a simple world. The concern (whether valid or not) is that the EU will try to find reasons to reject alternative arrangements and keep us in the backstop. As my post above, the EU appear to want a perfect solution ie to replicate the current situation, therefore could keep the UK in the backstop for longer than acceptable by rejecting all proposals (once we’re in the WA we can’t then get out).

We’re talking about monitoring a relatively small ireland and I honestly believe that tech solutions are available which may support a decent system, but if it doesnt deal with 100% of the issues raised by the EU, we’d stay in. I’d say surely if it’s 90-95% perfect that’s better than the alternative

fernandopartridge · Oct 3, 2019

CCFCSteve said:
Bit dramatic Fernando. By all accounts he is at least trying to put forward an alternative solution that might get through parliament (however much the EU might not like it their/Mays deal has been reject three times so it needs to change !). I don’t believe the primary intention is just to shift the blame, although I do believe this is on both the EU and the governments minds.

I know it’s our decision to leave but this is a negotiation, why don’t the EU put forward an alternative that might work for them and get through parliament ?

The fact is that a No Deal is going to lead to far worse than the issues raised by the current proposal (Johnson’s new plan) for NI/Ireland so why keep searching for the perfect solution when the alternative is a shitstorm ?! This oh but this might happen, that might happen...FFS...all I know is in a No Deal it WILL happen so surely it’s about to start trying to find a solution rather than just saying ‘No, try again’ to pretty much everything.

The more I read and hear about the current mess in NI (non Brexit related) the more I think even without Brexit there’s trouble ahead. How the fuck can a parliament/assembly not sit for 2.5 years ????? Poor old Boris got a slatting for 2.5 weeks ; )

Ps and when I talk about a imperfect solution, Im saying we already live in an imperfect world. ‘What about smugglers ?’ So that doesn’t happen already...it’s what the police/customs teams are for ? ‘What about illegal migration’ - has anyone not heard and read about people trafficking and what’s happening across the channel ? The hard border is a major issue and threatens the peace process, the other issues could/should be manageable with some will and investment.

Come on, you give him far too much credit. The proposal is / was a non-starter. It's playing to the crowd.

The EU is not the one that has decided to exit the UK, why on earth would it come up with a proposal? How could it come up with one quicky considering there are 27 members that would need to be agreeable to it?

There are ready made solutions out there, why are these dismissed out of hand by the Tories?

shmmeee · Oct 3, 2019

SkyBlueDom26 said:
Boris Johnson gathers Cabinet after EU's Michel Barnier hits at Brexit plan | Daily Mail Online

EU look set to reject the new deal put forward then.... will be forever going back and forward!! Fair play to Boris for at least getting a majority of MP's

There’s been a majority for unworkable deals from the start, that’s the whole problem.

djr8369 · Oct 3, 2019

fernandopartridge said:
Come on, you give him far too much credit. The proposal is / was a non-starter. It's playing to the crowd.

The EU is not the one that has decided to exit the UK, why on earth would it come up with a proposal? How could it come up with one quicky considering there are 27 members that would need to be agreeable to it?

There are ready made solutions out there, why are these dismissed out of hand by the Tories?

This and the fact they did negotiate for two years

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SkyBlueDom26 · Oct 3, 2019

So true

shmmeee · Oct 3, 2019

SkyBlueDom26 said:
It would trap us in the customs union.... only way it would work would be with a time limit

You’d need a backstop to the backstop if it was time limited.

Literally all that is needed is for the UK to decide if they want a CU or a border in Ireland and to stop pissing around.

shmmeee · Oct 3, 2019

SkyBlueDom26 said:
So true

All show. Both sides know it’ll never be accepted so can say what they want.

Seriously mate, stop trusting everything politicians say.

djr8369 · Oct 3, 2019

SkyBlueDom26 said:
So true

The truth is there’s one group who are trying to pretend to negotiate for political purposes and another group who are split between leaving with a deal or revoking.

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CCFCSteve · Oct 3, 2019

shmmeee said:
You’d need a backstop to the backstop if it was time limited.

Literally all that is needed is for the UK to decide if they want a CU or a border in Ireland and to stop pissing around.

Maybe if we’d run the trade talks concurrently we’d have come to that decision already, who knows.

As I’ve said though it all comes down to what people (on both sides) are willing/able to consider and get passed. I believe it is/will be possible to avoid a hard border without remaining in the customs union, whether it’s now or in five years, of course it’s possible (cameras are everywhere in today’s society, more customs policing/checks, it’s doable....but not without a minor percentage of higher risk to some of the crime flagged earlier)

CCFCSteve · Oct 3, 2019

shmmeee said:
All show. Both sides know it’ll never be accepted so can say what they want.

Seriously mate, stop trusting everything politicians say.

The proposal was supposed to reopen negotiations...not necessary expected to be accepted without alteration. Let’s see

djr8369 · Oct 3, 2019

CCFCSteve said:
The proposal was supposed to reopen negotiations...not necessary expected to be accepted without alteration. Let’s see

Didn’t Johnson say “it’s this deal or no deal”?

Plus we’re now weeks away from Oct 31. We’ve been trying to negotiate for 3 years. For all the will in the world there isn’t time to pivot and implement a much more elaborate solution. Maybe it’s possible but it’s seems unlikely.

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shmmeee · Oct 3, 2019

CCFCSteve said:
The proposal was supposed to reopen negotiations...not necessary expected to be accepted without alteration. Let’s see

What happened to “final offer or we walk away”?

We’ve known the parameters here for years, I don’t get what this “wait and see” is about.

If we want to not be in a customs union, we need to erect a border in Ireland. Hard line Brexiters refuse to take responsibility for the consequences of their actions and instead have spent three years coming up with unicorns to avoid the obvious.

Shit they know this, see the “cake and eat it” strategy right at the start. They know they’re asking for the impossible, but they’re such cowards they don’t want to be blamed when their chicken come home to roost. So we’ve had three years of game playing and nonsense instead.

Nothing but contempt for those doing it and pity for those that fall for it at this point. It’s so obvious what the game is.

shmmeee · Oct 3, 2019

So fucking frustrated we’ve got these absolute cretins in government. Even more so that the public at large buys every piece of nonsense that comes out of their mouths wholesale because they’re on “their side”.

so so dangerous to give politicians a blank cheque like that and it never ends well.

CCFCSteve · Oct 3, 2019

djr8369 said:
Didn’t Johnson say “it’s this deal or no deal”?

Plus we’re now weeks away from Oct 31. We’ve been trying to negotiate for 3 years. For all the will in the world there isn’t time to pivot and implement a much more elaborate solution. Maybe it’s possible but it’s seems unlikely.

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The letter states he hopes ‘the proposals form the basis for rapid negotiations’

I agree that time is ridiculously tight and there is no way it will get done without an EU ‘technical extension’

I respectfully disagree with yourself and shmmmeee regarding the requirement for a hard border unless we are in a customs union. Yes, checks and tracking will be required though. There will be a ‘risk zone’...my words : ) ....near the border where the risk of smuggling would be heightened but again, is this really insurmountable ? Id also increase penalties/sentences as a deterrent

Finally, wasn’t there an EU paper about what they would do to avoid a hard border ? Will search when I get time

Ps I’m not saying this an ideal/perfect solution but as I said before there isn’t one. Will be willing to bow to lawyers legal advice regarding the impact on the GF agreement as I don’t know enough about it other than a hard border (which would happen on No deal) would breach it.

CCFCSteve · Oct 3, 2019

shmmeee said:
So fucking frustrated we’ve got these absolute cretins in government. Even more so that the public at large buys every piece of nonsense that comes out of their mouths wholesale because they’re on “their side”.

so so dangerous to give politicians a blank cheque like that and it never ends well.

Easy mate ! We’re all frustrated.

Liquid Gold · Oct 3, 2019

shmmeee said:
What happened to “final offer or we walk away”?

We’ve known the parameters here for years, I don’t get what this “wait and see” is about.

If we want to not be in a customs union, we need to erect a border in Ireland. Hard line Brexiters refuse to take responsibility for the consequences of their actions and instead have spent three years coming up with unicorns to avoid the obvious.

Shit they know this, see the “cake and eat it” strategy right at the start. They know they’re asking for the impossible, but they’re such cowards they don’t want to be blamed when their chicken come home to roost. So we’ve had three years of game playing and nonsense instead.

Nothing but contempt for those doing it and pity for those that fall for it at this point. It’s so obvious what the game is.

The problem is that leavers gambled that the UK is rich and powerful enough for the EU to want to give us special treatment that went against the four pillars. It wasn't an especially unreasonable gamble considering all the exemptions we've had as a member but when it because apparent early on that wasn't going to happen it has been hijacked by clowns. We're now in a culture war with the two loudest sides of the argument shouting for completely opposing outcomes in no-deal and revoke when a little bit of compromise and reality early on would probably resulted in us being out already with something resembling a sensible deal but now we're just going to end up with a lot of pissed off people no matter what.

fernandopartridge · Oct 3, 2019

CCFCSteve said:
The letter states he hopes ‘the proposals form the basis for rapid negotiations’

I agree that time is ridiculously tight and there is no way it will get done without an EU ‘technical extension’

I respectfully disagree with yourself and shmmmeee regarding the requirement for a hard border unless we are in a customs union. Yes, checks and tracking will be required though. There will be a ‘risk zone’...my words : ) ....near the border where the risk of smuggling would be heightened but again, is this really insurmountable ? Id also increase penalties/sentences as a deterrent

Finally, wasn’t there an EU paper about what they would do to avoid a hard border ? Will search when I get time

Ps I’m not saying this an ideal/perfect solution but as I said before there isn’t one. Will be willing to bow to lawyers legal advice regarding the impact on the GF agreement as I don’t know enough about it other than a hard border (which would happen on No deal) would breach it.

Border checks and tracking is a hard border.

chiefdave · Oct 3, 2019

CCFCSteve said:
I know it’s our decision to leave but this is a negotiation, why don’t the EU put forward an alternative that might work for them and get through parliament ?

Perhaps they have accepted that the options are either a border in Ireland or the UK, or at least NI, remaining in a customs union.

We're the ones saying neither of those is acceptable while being unable to present an alternative.

CCFCSteve · Oct 3, 2019

fernandopartridge said:
Border checks and tracking is a hard border.

I’m talking about factory/premises and spot checks, not border checks. Which is why I was saying there would be a high risk (smuggling) area near border

djr8369 · Oct 3, 2019

Liquid Gold said:
The problem is that leavers gambled that the UK is rich and powerful enough for the EU to want to give us special treatment that went against the four pillars. It wasn't an especially unreasonable gamble considering all the exemptions we've had as a member but when it because apparent early on that wasn't going to happen it has been hijacked by clowns. We're now in a culture war with the two loudest sides of the argument shouting for completely opposing outcomes in no-deal and revoke when a little bit of compromise and reality early on would probably resulted in us being out already with something resembling a sensible deal but now we're just going to end up with a lot of pissed off people no matter what.

Great summary. It’s interesting that it seems to have accelerated the culture war in America coming here.

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Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Oct 3, 2019

CCFCSteve said:
I’m talking about factory/premises and spot checks, not border checks. Which is why I was saying there would be a high risk (smuggling) area near border

But is that not just moving where the hard border is, like saying there'll be checkpoints 5-10 miles from the border?

I don't think this is possible without a border of some kind. What else can you do?

Deleted member 5849 · Oct 3, 2019

Liquid Gold said:
The problem is that leavers gambled that the UK is rich and powerful enough for the EU to want to give us special treatment that went against the four pillars. It wasn't an especially unreasonable gamble considering all the exemptions we've had as a member but when it because apparent early on that wasn't going to happen it has been hijacked by clowns. We're now in a culture war with the two loudest sides of the argument shouting for completely opposing outcomes in no-deal and revoke when a little bit of compromise and reality early on would probably resulted in us being out already with something resembling a sensible deal but now we're just going to end up with a lot of pissed off people no matter what.

How do you achieve a sensible deal though?

The deal compromises see us still tied too much to the EU for people who want to leave, and without any influence on what happens to the EU in the future. The compromise risks *nobody* being happy!

So that leaves the 'rational' answers as no deal, or revoke. Really, now the consequences are clear, it *needs* a referendum. There's still a risk that there's enough sleepwalking into mantras that we'll commit suicide as a country regardless but, rationality has to hit at some point and if it doesn't, batten down the hatches and cling on!

skybluetony176 · Oct 3, 2019

SkyBlueDom26 said:
It would trap us in the customs union.... only way it would work would be with a time limit

Only if the leave campaign didn’t make good on what they were promising during their campaign.

skybluetony176 · Oct 3, 2019

fernandopartridge said:
...and considering the building up of the anti Irish sentiment (trying to blame Ireland for no deal) who knows what'll come next for the many many irish citizens who live here....I wouldn't put anything past these lunatics

... and considering the disregard for the GFPA and the way border communities of all faiths rely on free movement of people and goods I seriously don’t understand why anyone in Northern Ireland would want to remain part of the U.K.. Especially true of the freedom generations who have largely been able to avoid entrenchment in sectarianism and see Grotbags Foster saying that Northern Ireland can’t be seen as different to the rest of the U.K.. Unless it’s LGBT rights or women rights. They must look to the south as a beacon of light and think being British isn’t worth it.

I don’t know for sure but I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a major shakeup coming in Northern Irish politics and climate change denying, equal rights deniers such as the the DUP are consigned to history like the dinosaurs they are.

shmmeee · Oct 3, 2019

CCFCSteve said:
I’m talking about factory/premises and spot checks, not border checks. Which is why I was saying there would be a high risk (smuggling) area near border

Why should the EU accept a porous border just because we made undeliverable promises to our electorate?

It’s a dick move to make Ireland put up a border when we could just take responsibility.

shmmeee · Oct 3, 2019

Liquid Gold said:
The problem is that leavers gambled that the UK is rich and powerful enough for the EU to want to give us special treatment that went against the four pillars. It wasn't an especially unreasonable gamble considering all the exemptions we've had as a member but when it because apparent early on that wasn't going to happen it has been hijacked by clowns. We're now in a culture war with the two loudest sides of the argument shouting for completely opposing outcomes in no-deal and revoke when a little bit of compromise and reality early on would probably resulted in us being out already with something resembling a sensible deal but now we're just going to end up with a lot of pissed off people no matter what.

It was an unreasonable gamble as it relies on not understanding the difference between being a member and not. Which is a pretty basic distinction. It’s not about special treatment, it’s about basic logic. The EU cannot give what we are asking without doing to Ireland what we won’t do to NI.

Fact is Leave wouldn’t have won on the ticket that says our economy gets fucked and we restart the Troubles. So they had to pretend there was some magical solution where we get all the benefits and none of the drawbacks. Now they’ve been asked to deliver and they can’t. So like a kid in the playground throwing their crisp packet at someone else and claiming it’s their responsibility now cos “you touched it last” we try and blame everyone else.

Sick of it. It’s made me embarrassed to be British.

SkyblueBazza · Oct 3, 2019

SkyBlueDom26 said:
Boris Johnson gathers Cabinet after EU's Michel Barnier hits at Brexit plan | Daily Mail Online

EU look set to reject the new deal put forward then.... will be forever going back and forward!! Fair play to Boris for at least getting a majority of MP's

Sorry if this comes across as perdantic, but it isn't a deal - it is a proposal. Probably carefully constructed to have some 'give' should the other side at least come back to the table & negotiate an actual deal

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SkyblueBazza · Oct 3, 2019

djr8369 said:
Didn’t Johnson say “it’s this deal or no deal”?

Plus we’re now weeks away from Oct 31. We’ve been trying to negotiate for 3 years. For all the will in the world there isn’t time to pivot and implement a much more elaborate solution. Maybe it’s possible but it’s seems unlikely.

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Surely you don't believe him?

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shmmeee · Oct 4, 2019

SkyblueBazza said:
Sorry if this comes across as perdantic, but it isn't a deal - it is a proposal. Probably carefully constructed to have some 'give' should the other side at least come back to the table & negotiate an actual deal

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It’s solely an electioneering tool. It’s a deal made up of rejected proposals designed to be rejected so he can play the martyr in an election. He will then put no deal to parliament which will be rejected so he can play the martyr.

He’s not taking Brexit seriously, he’s using it for political gain. If you actually want us to leave this is a terrible strategy that might well end up with us remaining.

SkyblueBazza · Oct 4, 2019

shmmeee said:
It’s solely an electioneering tool. It’s a deal made up of rejected proposals designed to be rejected so he can play the martyr in an election. He will then put no deal to parliament which will be rejected so he can play the martyr.

He’s not taking Brexit seriously, he’s using it for political gain. If you actually want us to leave this is a terrible strategy that might well end up with us remaining.

You really should start such posts with "in my opinion". I have heard one or two remainers (Ramsay-Jones being one) on the radio this morning saying he believes Bojo genuinely wants a deal as it gives him & the Tories a free run in Govt for at least 5yrs...because he becomes the hero that got us out of the EU (phase 1 at least), the LDs will have a redundant mission & have to reinvent, Farage will have nothing to offer & Labour can be easily fought due their dithering on one hand & obfuscating on the other.

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shmmeee · Oct 4, 2019

SkyblueBazza said:
You really should start such posts with "in my opinion". I have heard one or two remainers (Ramsay-Jones being one) on the radio this morning saying he believes Bojo genuinely wants a deal as it gives him & the Tories a free run in Govt for at least 5yrs...because he becomes the hero that got us out of the EU (phase 1 at least), the LDs will have a redundant mission & have to reinvent, Farage will have nothing to offer & Labour can be easily fought due their dithering on one hand & obfuscating on the other.

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Do I really need to post “in my opinion” on every post in a forum or can I assume a basic level of intelligence in my readers?

If BoJo wants a deal there’s several he could’ve gone for. There’s enough support for Mays revised deal. Instead he’s put forward a proposal literally everyone knew would be rejected because he needs to be seen by the low information voter to have “tried”.

He doesn’t have a majority because he threw it out of his pram, and there’s only three years left of this parliament so not sure how that works really. He needs an election, he thinks he can win that election by riling up Brexiters by not leaving and making out it’s not his fault. Pure politics.

Deleted member 5849 · Oct 4, 2019

shmmeee said:
or can I assume a basic level of intelligence in my readers?

That's a foolish assumption to make!

SkyblueBazza · Oct 4, 2019

shmmeee said:
Do I really need to post “in my opinion” on every post in a forum or can I assume a basic level of intelligence in my readers?

If BoJo wants a deal there’s several he could’ve gone for. There’s enough support for Mays revised deal. Instead he’s put forward a proposal literally everyone knew would be rejected because he needs to be seen by the low information voter to have “tried”.

He doesn’t have a majority because he threw it out of his pram, and there’s only three years left of this parliament so not sure how that works really. He needs an election, he thinks he can win that election by riling up Brexiters by not leaving and making out it’s not his fault. Pure politics.

Nah, I'll let you off...but some would automatically fire off something asking where he has said that, or where ypur evidence is. You know, like what you do sometimes lol

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Grappa · Oct 4, 2019

Deleted member 5849 said:
That's a foolish assumption to make!

IN YOUR OPINION

shmmeee · Oct 4, 2019

SkyblueBazza said:
Nah, I'll let you off...but some would automatically fire off something asking where he has said that, or where ypur evidence is. You know, like what you do sometimes lol

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Sure, fire off. Happy to back up my hunches where they are hunches.

As I say, I base the idea he doesn’t want a deal on the dual premise that he’s ignored the deals that could get through both the EU and parliament and he’s proposed one that includes already rejected ideas.

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