The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (87 Viewers)

djr8369 · Oct 18, 2019

Grendel said:
It depends on your view on integration and future direction doesn’t it?

The Lisbon treaty weakened our veto in several areas and there is every likelihood that will continue further. Stronger fiscal ties and currency union are inevitable as is collective foreign policy

An inability to operate independently in these areas are crippling many Eu countries who cannot devalue or set their own budgets

You can’t just view a short term arrangement against a potential long term federal strategy. Italy as an example when polled believes they have had no benefit from the Eu economically as a majority view

It’s ironic that many people who abhor federalism actually like it in this particular issue

I’m not sure it does depend on that at all if you’re considering it purely from an economic viewpoint. It seems like you’re making more of a political argument. Yes some of your points relate to fiscal policy but is that an issue that has or will affected the U.K.?

Hypothetically speaking, let say in future there is a closer fiscal union and this creates some kind of negative effect, likely a Eurozone recession. It seems you’re suggesting we’d be more able to dictate our own policy to protect us, is that enough of a benefit particularly if we’ve sacrificed growth to get there?

Regarding the Italy poll, what people perceive and what effect it’s had are likely two different things. Or are you saying economists were polled?

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Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Oct 18, 2019

Grendel said:
Ivan Lendl says he prefers golf to tennis. He’s still a tennis player

Put through the GrendelFish translator:

Grendel said:
I'm trying to change the focus of the argument

I do admire that you're trying to claim you know more about what Paul Merton is than Paul Merton himself.

Grendel · Oct 18, 2019

djr8369 said:
I’m not sure it does depend on that at all if you’re considering it purely from an economic viewpoint. It seems like you’re making more of a political argument. Yes some of your points relate to fiscal policy but is that an issue that has or will affected the U.K.?

Hypothetically speaking, let say in future there is a closer fiscal union and this creates some kind of negative effect, likely a Eurozone recession. It seems you’re suggesting we’d be more able to dictate our own policy to protect us, is that enough of a benefit particularly if we’ve sacrificed growth to get there?

Regarding the Italy poll, what people perceive and what effect it’s had are likely two different things. Or are you saying economists were polled?

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No it’s not a political argument

Many economists would tell you that the majority of the European countries in the Mediterranean are basket cases propped up by an artificially low borrowing rate driven by the European bank which in itself is driven by German interest rate policy

I doubt you would find any economist that would argue against that and would not concede that a downturn in the German economy would have a catastrophic impact which would result in major bail outs from net contributors

It’s unlikely long term growth will be sacrificed either as there will inevitably be a mutually beneficial trade arrangement - it’s absurd to assume otherwise

Italy has some if the biggest debt on the planet so it’s hardly surprising it views the Eu even more negatively than us. The difference is it can’t leave without actual bankruptcy as it’s tied to a monetary union. A union we will at some point be forced to support

the economic model is designed around Germany and predominantly to benefit Germany - again most economists don’t argue this point - the ability to self determine fiscal and monetary control is a huge benefit from a uk perspective (for obvious reasons Germany is the opposite) and even the slightest threat to that is not worth the risk

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Oct 18, 2019

djr8369 said:
Genuine question - do any leave voters (or remain if you’re so inclined) believe there is an economic case for Brexit?

Do you think future trade deals with other countries will fill the gap?

Or perhaps you don’t think there is but think it is worth it nonetheless?

Not much of one (certainly in the short term)

Future trade deals will reduce the impact but IMO will not fill the gap entirely. However, when new deals are signed leavers will post them and say "see, told you so" without factoring in the difference between that deal and any deal we could have had as part of the EU.

I also expect a number of those deals to have unwelcome long-term impacts like City deregulation and NHS privatisation leading to future crashes/poorer standards of care for lower income people.

clint van damme · Oct 18, 2019

fellatio_Martinez said:
The two aren't mutually exclusive.

Paul Merton is a stand up comedian. Yes, he's currently focusing on improv but a lot of stand ups take breaks or go down other avenues for periods of time, but they're still stand ups.

It's like saying Derren Brown isn't a magician anymore because he took a year off writing a book.

Derren Brown definitely isn't a magician!
(Sorry for muddying the waters further).

Edit - just seen Shmeees post

Grendel · Oct 18, 2019

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Put through the GrendelFish translator:

I do admire that you're trying to claim you know more about what Paul Merton is than Paul Merton himself.

Do you believe everything people say?

Did he even say it or did you make it up?

Paul Telfer famously preferred golf to football - he played football

djr8369 · Oct 18, 2019

Grendel said:
No it’s not a political argument

Many economists would tell you that the majority of the European countries in the Mediterranean are basket cases propped up by an artificially low borrowing rate driven by the European bank which in itself is driven by German interest rate policy

I doubt you would find any economist that would argue against that and would not concede that a downturn in the German economy would have a catastrophic impact which would result in major bail outs from net contributors

It’s unlikely long term growth will be sacrificed either as there will inevitably be a mutually beneficial trade arrangement - it’s absurd to assume otherwise

Italy has some if the biggest debt on the planet so it’s hardly surprising it views the Eu even more negatively than us. The difference is it can’t leave without actual bankruptcy as it’s tied to a monetary union. A union we will at some point be forced to support

the economic model is designed around Germany and predominantly to benefit Germany - again most economists don’t argue this point - the ability to self determine fiscal and monetary control is a huge benefit from a uk perspective (for obvious reasons Germany is the opposite) and even the slightest threat to that is not worth the risk

While most economists wouldn’t argue a lot of those points a mutually beneficial trade deal isn’t going to be as mutually beneficial as the single market?

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Grendel · Oct 18, 2019

djr8369 said:
While most economists wouldn’t argue a lot of those points a mutually beneficial trade deal isn’t going to be as mutually beneficial as the single market?

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why not?

fellatio_Martinez · Oct 18, 2019

shmmeee said:
You appear to have ended up arguing against your own point. A comedian is anyone whose main selling point is being funny. Whether they write scripts, Do stand up, sing comedy songs, or present TV programs.

By your definition a clown is a comedian because their main intention is to be funny. Alan Sugar is a comedian because he delivers puns on The Apprentice etc

You're trying to make your own definitions for a comedian to suit your own argument.

This is getting beyond ridiculous and I don't know why I keep arguing about it. This damned fucking thread must be cursed or something.

shmmeee · Oct 18, 2019

fellatio_Martinez said:
By your definition a clown is a comedian because their main intention is to be funny. Alan Sugar is a comedian because he delivers puns on The Apprentice etc

You're trying to make your own definitions for a comedian to suit your own argument.

This is getting beyond ridiculous and I don't know why I keep arguing about it. This damned fucking thread must be cursed or something.

Yeah this is a stupid argument TBF

djr8369 · Oct 18, 2019

Grendel said:
why not?

Because it would undermine one of the benefits of being members of it.

Let’s say it was though, we’d still effectively need regulatory union to make trading as straight forward in which case why leave the SM in the first place? We could have left politically and ensure no future fiscal union while staying in the SM.

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fellatio_Martinez · Oct 18, 2019

clint van damme said:
Derren Brown definitely isn't a magician!
(Sorry for muddying the waters further).

Edit - just seen Shmeees post

I've seen him live a few times now and he most definitely includes "magic" in his shows. Of course he's far and beyond just a mere magician but it's in the same realm. To the layman he's a magician.

skybluetony176 · Oct 18, 2019

djr8369 said:
Genuine question - do any leave voters (or remain if you’re so inclined) believe there is an economic case for Brexit?

Do you think future trade deals with other countries will fill the gap?

Or perhaps you don’t think there is but think it is worth it nonetheless?

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Forget economics the real question is is there a case that it will make anyone happier. Economics is just the price of everything and the value of nothing. Happiness should be the yard stick.
As far as I can tell brexit (apart from a tool to gain more wealth for disaster capitalist) seems to be a tool for us to emulate the USA. That’s the USA, a country that slips further and further down the UN’s world happiness report on a regular basis. Why have “we” elected to go this route when sanity tells you we should be emulating countries in the top 10 such as the Scandinavian countries who embrace the Nordic model of socialist democracy or New Zealand. We’re heading for capitalist misery under the guise that somehow it will restore civil liberties that in reality we never lost and capitalism is the saviour of the world despite every index that you can find of note pointing to the opposite.

Economics is bollocks that the elite should worry about, the man on the street should measure their success by happiness and on that score a large percentage of the man in the street has been duped, or for our Northern Ireland viewers DUPed (it was the headline in one of the NI papers today regarding May’s ...err, I mean Boris’ deal)

shmmeee · Oct 18, 2019

Looks tight. I suspect it’s going to pass.

fernandopartridge · Oct 18, 2019

It'll pass I think, think there will be sufficient Labour MP support.

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Oct 18, 2019

Grendel said:
Do you believe everything people say?

Did he even say it or did you make it up?

Paul Telfer famously preferred golf to football - he played football

Translated:

Grendel said:
I still can't admit I'm wrong

Big difference is that Paul Merton has actually been a professional improv comic for nearly 40 years. He has done one (not very) stand-up show in over 20 years. Don't recall seeing Paul Telfer competing for the Claret Jug..... does Paul Telfer claim to be more of a professional golfer than a professional footballer (although I'm sure there are some who would be willing to debate which one he was most qualified for)?

I can even give you the date and where he said it: 17 May 2008. Butterworth Hall, Warwick Arts Centre. I remember because it was my birthday.

And I don't believe everything people say. But when people say something about their own lives and the information backs it up considering the work he's done in the comedy genre on stage/radio/TV is dominated by improv based stuff I'm willing to give them the benefit of the doubt..

Even HIGNFY, which he could to some extent prepare and write stuff for, he doesn't bother. He barely bothers to keep up to date with the news on TV or in the papers even though he's on a topical news quiz. If a joke pops into his head or he sees something funny he'll remember it but he won't try and actively write jokes for the show, which is what a stand up comic does because they like set-ups and punchlines. He just reacts to whats going on.

Deleted member 5849 · Oct 18, 2019

fernandopartridge said:
It'll pass I think, think there will be sufficient Labour MP support.

I find this slightly odd. I get the argument that if you're in an extreme leave seat, you'd be worried about your future. However, if Johnson delivers Brexit, then he could well make inroads into those seats anyway.

The only logic can surely be to pass it, then allow him the next two years to stuff it up!

fernandopartridge · Oct 18, 2019

I've seen some of the northern Labour constituencies planning to vote for it, Sarah Champion, Ruth Smeeth...

Ironically for the Corbyn-hating FBFE crowd, these are the moderate types they want in charge of Labour policy...

chiefdave · Oct 18, 2019

shmmeee said:
Looks tight. I suspect it’s going to pass.

Suspect the magic money tree will be given a good shake.

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Oct 18, 2019

Think it'll be very tight, but when push comes to shove most MP's bottle it and vote with the whip regardless of what they've said before. Far too concerned about their own political career.

clint van damme · Oct 18, 2019

I'd rather leave with no deal.
I

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Oct 18, 2019

chiefdave said:
Suspect the magic money tree will be given a good shake.

"We send the EU £350m a week. Let's fund the DUP instead"

fernandopartridge · Oct 18, 2019

clint van damme said:
I'd rather leave with no deal.
I

That isn't the option on the table so don't fall for it. That is what is being presented which is false.

chiefdave · Oct 18, 2019

fernandopartridge said:
That isn't the option on the table so don't fall for it. That is what is being presented which is false.

Under this plan if we get to the end of the transition period in December 2020 without an agreement won't we still come out with no deal?

fernandopartridge · Oct 18, 2019

chiefdave said:
Under this plan if we get to the end of the transition period in December 2020 without an agreement won't we still come out with no deal?

Correct. And given that it took 3 years to agree a withdrawal agreement covering the transition period, the chances of agreeing a FTA in less than 14 months look slim.

clint van damme · Oct 18, 2019

fernandopartridge said:
That isn't the option on the table so don't fall for it. That is what is being presented which is false.

I can't see us leaving with no deal on the 31st if this deal isn't accepted, (I don't think Boris will break the law), but it's just what Id prefer because I think it would seriously damage the Tories so could be good for the country in the long term as I don't think this deal is that good though admittedly I've haven't scrutinised it as much as I did Mays.

I think I have Brexit fatigue!

Am I right to say that even if the deal is accepted but trade talks fail we could still leave on no deal terms next year?

Sky_Blue_Dreamer · Oct 18, 2019

skybluetony176 said:
Forget economics the real question is is there a case that it will make anyone happier. Economics is just the price of everything and the value of nothing. Happiness should be the yard stick.
As far as I can tell brexit (apart from a tool to gain more wealth for disaster capitalist) seems to be a tool for us to emulate the USA. That’s the USA, a country that slips further and further down the UN’s world happiness report on a regular basis. Why have “we” elected to go this route when sanity tells you we should be emulating countries in the top 10 such as the Scandinavian countries who embrace the Nordic model of socialist democracy or New Zealand. We’re heading for capitalist misery under the guise that somehow it will restore civil liberties that in reality we never lost and capitalism is the saviour of the world despite every index that you can find of note pointing to the opposite.

Economics is bollocks that the elite should worry about, the man on the street should measure their success by happiness and on that score a large percentage of the man in the street has been duped, or for our Northern Ireland viewers DUPed (it was the headline in one of the NI papers today regarding May’s ...err, I mean Boris’ deal)

Yep. Somehow we need to get off this total obsession with economic performance and growth. News channels and outlets will cover inflation rates, interest rate changes, growth rates and how they compare to forecasts and go nuts over potential negative growth and will it result in recession.

Even though they are quick to talk about mental illness and depression, especially in the young they're always linking it to economic conditions etc. Although they will undoubtedly be a factor it's only a part of that reasoning with far more complex social factors leading to it. But they never take things like the happiness index and say "why aren't we as happy as these nations?"

Focus on money/capitalism is destined to make you unhappy because it's based on always wanting more - you can never be satisfied. There are people with more money that they could hope to spend in their lifetimes but still want more because they still feel unfulfilled. It's because they're looking for the answer in the wrong place.

shmmeee · Oct 18, 2019

fernandopartridge said:
It'll pass I think, think there will be sufficient Labour MP support.

He’s playing a fine balancing act. Telling half that it’s a route to soft Brexit and half it’s a route to no deal. Sounds like he’s just kicking the can to end of next year cos at some point it’s going to have to be crystallised.

Am not looking forward to the next year of Brexit debate if this passes.

shmmeee · Oct 18, 2019

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Yep. Somehow we need to get off this total obsession with economic performance and growth. News channels and outlets will cover inflation rates, interest rate changes, growth rates and how they compare to forecasts and go nuts over potential negative growth and will it result in recession.

Even though they are quick to talk about mental illness and depression, especially in the young they're always linking it to economic conditions etc. Although they will undoubtedly be a factor it's only a part of that reasoning with far more complex social factors leading to it. But they never take things like the happiness index and say "why aren't we as happy as these nations?"

Focus on money/capitalism is destined to make you unhappy because it's based on always wanting more - you can never be satisfied. There are people with more money that they could hope to spend in their lifetimes but still want more because they still feel unfulfilled. It's because they're looking for the answer in the wrong place.

Not enough time or energy to go into it properly here but I have an overarching theory about the decline of real life social networks and people place in the world and the impacts of that that aren’t easily measurable but turn up in externalities like mental health and lifespan.

In a nutshell we’ve become too individual and need to get back to real life connections and localism somehow. But harking back to systems that have gone won’t do it. The net brought us together again briefly but now atomises us further.

shmmeee · Oct 18, 2019

fernandopartridge said:
Correct. And given that it took 3 years to agree a withdrawal agreement covering the transition period, the chances of agreeing a FTA in less than 14 months look slim.

This is my worry. ERG will put it over the line in the knowledge they can vote down an extension next year and get no deal. That’s why I’d remove the whole from and Labour MP voting for it.

Otis · Oct 18, 2019

Sky_Blue_Dreamer said:
Put through the GrendelFish translator:

I do admire that you're trying to claim you know more about what Paul Merton is than Paul Merton himself.

For what it's worth, my brother knows Paul Merton
He actually went to my brother's birthday party.

Next time he's there I will find out if he's an stand-up comedian. That fact and issue has now become more important than as to whether we are leaving the EU without a deal or not.

Otis · Oct 18, 2019

shmmeee said:
This is my worry. ERG will put it over the line in the knowledge they can vote down an extension next year and get no deal. That’s why I’d remove the whole from and Labour MP voting for it.

Okay, never thought of it that way. I was assuming that many in the ERG would vote against this deal tomorrow based on BJ's insistence we will leave on the 31st with no deal if it doesn't get past parliament.

Ian1779 · Oct 18, 2019

fernandopartridge said:
It'll pass I think, think there will be sufficient Labour MP support.

But will they try and put in the confirmatory referendum to avoid the ERG pulling a fast one later down the line?

djr8369 · Oct 18, 2019

skybluetony176 said:
Forget economics the real question is is there a case that it will make anyone happier. Economics is just the price of everything and the value of nothing. Happiness should be the yard stick.
As far as I can tell brexit (apart from a tool to gain more wealth for disaster capitalist) seems to be a tool for us to emulate the USA. That’s the USA, a country that slips further and further down the UN’s world happiness report on a regular basis. Why have “we” elected to go this route when sanity tells you we should be emulating countries in the top 10 such as the Scandinavian countries who embrace the Nordic model of socialist democracy or New Zealand. We’re heading for capitalist misery under the guise that somehow it will restore civil liberties that in reality we never lost and capitalism is the saviour of the world despite every index that you can find of note pointing to the opposite.

Economics is bollocks that the elite should worry about, the man on the street should measure their success by happiness and on that score a large percentage of the man in the street has been duped, or for our Northern Ireland viewers DUPed (it was the headline in one of the NI papers today regarding May’s ...err, I mean Boris’ deal)

Tony I don’t disagree with the majority what you’ve said. Economics is just the most often used yardstick and the least subjective so seems the obvious choice to measure the “success” of Brexit.

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SkyblueBazza · Oct 18, 2019

Deleted member 5849 said:
I get the argument that if you're in an extreme leave seat, you'd be worried about your future

I don't get that argument at all...they have convinced people that on this issue they are doing what is best for the country, its future & its people? Otherwise they would have just gone with the original WA

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