The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (284 Viewers)

skybluetony176 · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
You're an educated person, so what will you be judging the success of brexit on exactly? Are you going to be reasonable and see if the country is in a good shape in 10 years, or are you going to be unrealistic and expect brexit to be brilliant from the get go?

Like most things especially business, it's difficult at first right? Give the country time to find its own feet

There’s going to be one very immediate yard stick. Economic recovery following COVID. All countries have been hit all countries have been saddled with the economic hit of COVID. It’s a leveller in that sense. If EU countries consistently recover quicker than the U.K. as a direct result of EU membership than that’s a very firm indicator that Brexit was a mistake. The flip side to that of course is if the U.K. recovers better then that gives Brexit some legitimacy that it was a good idea.

shmmeee · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
If that's the measure of success then that's how we will know, I just don't think we will know if brexit has been a success in January 2021

You’ve got to define your terms. I think generally if people are richer it’s usually a win. I’m told people voted Brexit for other reasons, freedom well that doesn’t look too good when you look how we’re being kicked around in trade negotiations.

Like all woo it’ll ultimately be unfalsifiable claims and shifting goalposts. Go back through this thread and you’ll see it happening live.

Brexit was always a generic cry for help rather than a strategy to actually achieve anything tangible. People want the modern world to stop. In that respect it’ll never be successful.

Evo1883 · Sep 4, 2020

clint van damme said:
Don't need to cross fingers. There's overwhelming evidence it will fail, always has been.
It was never destined to do anything else. A rudimentary look at how international supply chains and trade deals work would tell you that.

A rudimentary look at how much money the disaster capitalists will make from it would tell you that (Always follow the money).

The RHA today saying we're heading for disaster, but pointing out the facts is wishing to fail I suppose?

If wishful thinking got you anywhere City would have just won their 3rd Champions league on the trot.

If the evidence is overwhelming, then it's best you make peace with that and stop letting it eat you up

clint van damme · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
You're an educated person, so what will you be judging the success of brexit on exactly? Are you going to be reasonable and see if the country is in a good shape in 10 years, or are you going to be unrealistic and expect brexit to be brilliant from the get go?

Like most things especially business, it's difficult at first right? Give the country time to find its own feet

We were told there's be 40 trade deals ready to sign the day after we left. We were told the deal with the EU would be the easiest deal in the world and all the time the people telling us were telling their investors to pull their money out of the UK or to get against us.

You want to give those people 10 years to get us on our feet?

clint van damme · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
If the evidence is overwhelming, then it's best you make peace with that and stop letting it eat you up

It doesn't eat me up. Just pointing out that people need to wake up.

Evo1883 · Sep 4, 2020

clint van damme said:
We were told there's be 40 trade deals ready to sign the day after we left. We were told the deal with the EU would be the easiest deal in the world and all the time the people telling us were telling their investors to pull their money out of the UK or to get against us.

You want to give those people 10 years to get us on our feet?

Like I said it needs time, you wouldn't open a bakery and expect to be a millionaire overnight... Give it time, otherwise you will be disappointed, even more than you already are

Alan Dugdales Moustache · Sep 4, 2020

shmmeee said:
What are you on about? I’ve accepted the referendum from day one like the vast majority of people. Ridiculous persecution complex you’ve got.

Whats it like to define your entire political ideology in terms of how much it annoys randoms you’ve never met?

Hahaha.
Persecution complex doesn't define it really , does it ? After all, you'd say I got what I asked for in the referendum.
What's it like to make silly statements just because you're annoyed ?

skybluetony176 · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
What makes any country a success?

There’s many mechanisms for calling that from world equality reports, world happiness reports, world standard of living reports etc etc. None make good reading for righties though.

shmmeee · Sep 4, 2020

Let’s be honest. We’ll rejoin within a generation. It’ll be a weird footnote in the chapter about early 21st century populism and we’ll all be a little poorer.

I’m more concerned that it’s put the most incompetent government in history into power at a time when the world really needs some global leadership on stuff like climate change and wealth is still trickling up. Both of which are powderkegs waiting to go off. I really don’t want another war.

clint van damme · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
Like I said, you wouldn't open a bakery and expect to be a millionaire overnight... Give it time, otherwise you will be disappointed, even more than you already are

If you put the chuckle brothers in charge of the bakery you'd be a fool to expect it to ever be a success.

We've bought Tony Abbott in. It's the political equivalent of appointing a foreign manager to run the national team. It tells the world there's no one good enough in your country.

shmmeee · Sep 4, 2020

Alan Dugdales Moustache said:
Hahaha.
Persecution complex doesn't define it really , does it ? After all, you'd say I got what I asked for in the referendum.
What's it like to make silly statements just because you're annoyed ?

As always you’re arguing with some cartoon Remainer you’ve invented in your head.

I think Brexit is stupid, I’ve never said it should be stopped without democratic agreement.

Evo1883 · Sep 4, 2020

skybluetony176 said:
There’s many mechanisms for calling that from world equality reports, world happiness reports, world standard of living reports etc etc. None make good reading for righties though.

If the country fails it matters not whether you are left or right Tony.

Given time we will know whether brexit has failed or not, it certainly can't be measured in January 2021

Evo1883 · Sep 4, 2020

clint van damme said:
If you put the chuckle brothers in charge of the bakery you'd be a fool to expect it to ever be a success.

We've bought Tony Abbott in. It's the political equivalent of appointing a foreign manager to run the national team. It tells the world there's no one good enough in your country.

You can vote the chuckle brothers out though, and then make it a success.
Surely what you are saying then is it could be a success but in the right hands? I'm confused if brexit is going to fail it will fail regardless

shmmeee · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
Like I said it needs time, you wouldn't open a bakery and expect to be a millionaire overnight... Give it time, otherwise you will be disappointed, even more than you already are

Lost growth is lost forever. Even if we do get back on track in the future the billions it’s cost us already are gone.

This “short term pain for long term gain” is economic woo on par with the “bleach cures autism and if you vomit you’re expelling the evil spirits” crap.

skybluetony176 · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
The I'm afraid you're going to be angry for a long time still to come..
P. S everything in business is idealistic nonsense at first, it's all risk .. Whether it becomes a success or not takes time

Calculated risks based on something tangible. Not French wine, German cars nonsense.

Evo1883 · Sep 4, 2020

shmmeee said:
Lost growth is lost forever. Even if we do get back on track in the future the billions it’s cost us already are gone.

This “short term pain for long term gain” is economic woo on par with the “bleach cures autism and if you vomit you’re expelling the evil spirits” crap.

Well we know country's can recover though don't we, as with many country's after depressions or recessions... They can recover... The idea we can't or won't is at best premature

Deleted member 5849 · Sep 4, 2020

shmmeee said:
This “short term pain for long term gain”

If that were genuinely the motivation (we knew what we voted for) then everybody would have been voting for the high tax, high investment party the past few years...

clint van damme · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
You can vote the chuckle brothers out though, and then make it a success.
Surely what you are saying then is it could be a success but in the right hands? I'm confused if brexit is going to fail it will fail regardless

Well making sure we strike a trade deal with our biggest trading partner and neighbours would be a start.

But Odey and Rees Mogg have too much to lose.
I'm losing my job at the end of the year (nothing to do with brexit) and the job market is poor at the moment.
The impending supply chain disaster will probably open up a few opportunities for me but I'm more concerned with the country as a whole and how it will affect my children and their generations.

skybluetony176 · Sep 4, 2020

shmmeee said:
Let’s be honest. We’ll rejoin within a generation.

Yep. With no opt out for the Euro. So basically Brexits legacy will be the end of the pound.

Evo1883 · Sep 4, 2020

I wouldn't be so sure we will rejoin in a generation, you'd have to get the party in to offer it you and it doesn't look like Labour can win a general election within 2 generations let alone 1

shmmeee · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
I wouldn't be so sure we will rejoin in a generation, you'd have to get the party in to offer it you and it doesn't look like Labour can win a general election within 2 generations let alone 1

Economic gravity always wins. Same reason the Tories haven’t and won’t reduce unskilled immigration. Nothing to do with Labour. You’re thinking too small.

The history of the world is a slow inexorable march towards liberalised trade. Brexit is trying to turn back the tide.

Deleted member 5849 · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
I wouldn't be so sure we will rejoin in a generation, you'd have to get the party in to offer it you and it doesn't look like Labour can win a general election within 2 generations let alone 1

Conservatives have only gone anti Europe recently (and even the Prime Minister's true feelings aren't easy to tell). They'll change back if it suits.

Evo1883 · Sep 4, 2020

shmmeee said:
Economic gravity always wins. Same reason the Tories haven’t and won’t reduce unskilled immigration. Nothing to do with Labour. You’re thinking too small.

You're also assuming the country will be a shit state in 20 years though... Its a long time to guess..

skybluetony176 · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
If the country fails it matters not whether you are left or right Tony.

Given time we will know whether brexit has failed or not, it certainly can't be measured in January 2021

Let’s throw the question back at you and others then. How are we going measure that Brexit is a success?

I won’t be accepting ideological nonsense like no unelected bureaucrats because A) that’s bollocks, we’ll always have unelected bureaucrats B) it doesn’t mean that there’s a tangible benefit from that. It’s pure head candy nonsense.

shmmeee · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
You're also assuming the country will be a shit state in 20 years though... Its a long time to guess..

No I’m not. I’m assuming business will want to increase profits and politicians will listen to them. Just like every single administration in the world ever.

clint van damme · Sep 4, 2020

shmmeee said:
Economic gravity always wins. Same reason the Tories haven’t and won’t reduce unskilled immigration. Nothing to do with Labour. You’re thinking too small.

The history of the world is a slow inexorable march towards liberalised trade. Brexit is trying to turn back the tide.

You mean uber capitalists don't want an endless stream of cheap, malleable Labour? No way!

Evo1883 · Sep 4, 2020

shmmeee said:
No I’m not. I’m assuming business will want to increase profits and politicians will listen to them. Just like every single administration in the world ever.

You make a fair point

clint van damme · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
I wouldn't be so sure we will rejoin in a generation, you'd have to get the party in to offer it you and it doesn't look like Labour can win a general election within 2 generations let alone 1

I would agree, though equally, I'm not sure they'd want us!

clint van damme · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
You're also assuming the country will be a shit state in 20 years though... Its a long time to guess..

d be a lot more optimistic if they ripped up HS2 and used the money to start a massive program of upskilling the UK workforce - churning out engineers and scientists etc.

Pipe dream I know but that would really give me optimism.

Evo1883 · Sep 4, 2020

clint van damme said:
d be a lot more optimistic if they ripped up HS2 and used the money to start a massive program of upskilling the UK workforce - churning out engineers and scientists etc.

Pipe dream I know but that would really give me optimism.

I agree, I also don't want to quote shit chops Johnson either but we really do need to build build build...

shmmeee · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
You make a fair point

It might not be EU membership but rather a series of trade deals and treaties held together with sellotape that do the same thing. A care worker visa here, a mini trade deal there. Eventually we’ll end up roughly back where we were. This stuff came about because all sides of the political spectrum want investment and jobs and business wants lack of red tape. Once the heat dies down that will carry on.

shmmeee · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
I agree, I also don't want to quote shit chops Johnson either but we really do need to build build build...

I really hope he comes through on that. Investment is desperately needed. I don’t see anyone in government with the balls to do itthough.

Evo1883 · Sep 4, 2020

shmmeee said:
I really hope he comes through on that. Investment is desperately needed. I don’t see anyone in government with the balls to do itthough.

I shouldn't really use this as a comparison, but if any nation in history has ever shown what it takes to drag its nation back from nothing(granted with help) ... It's Germany.
The impossible really is possible, it needs the right direction of course, I'm not sure we have it either atm in the current administration(the direction)

shmmeee · Sep 4, 2020

Evo1883 said:
I shouldn't really use this as a comparison, but if any nation in history has ever shown what it takes to drag its nation back from nothing... It's Germany.
The impossible really is possible, it needs the right direction of course, I'm not sure we have it either atm

No you absolutely should. Pre war Germany came about for the same reasons as Brexit and was solved by giving workers decent jobs and pay. Same things needed here: manufacturing, good pay and conditions, a social safety net.

What’s so frustrating is we’ve been here before and we know what works we just refuse to do it and listen to a bunch of charlatans waving kippers instead.

wingy · Sep 4, 2020

This build build build I'm all for it.
The flagging commercial sector is looking ripe for adaption into apartments.
I do feel though there's scope with new technology to transform traditional techniques when it comes to domestic dwellings.
Less skill required in production, assembled on site by skilled technicians.
Expansion is badly needed but the elephant in the room is that part of the economy is hitched to property value and has acted like a dead weight on production forward 30-40yrs.

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