The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (281 Viewers)

The Lurker · Dec 11, 2018

@martcov see you swerved my question about who quoted the numbers on the march.

The end of the day, the media and remain fucked us over with this need a deal bollocks. there shouldn’t be a deal. we voted out and that’s it. no one mentioned deals in the referendum, the eu will not exist in 10 years. all over Europe there are mass riots. it’s in a mess

The Lurker · Dec 11, 2018

clint van damme said:
Plenty of leavers didn't vote to leave under no deal, that would have cleared it up one way or another.

More bullshit. On the form in the ballot box it said do you want to exit the EU? nothing on there about deals and the vote leave won. in the build up David Cameron said the following in or out.

SIR ERNIE · Dec 11, 2018

martcov said:
If he were focused on WTO from the start, which is the worst case scenario, we would get WTO. WTO is the base line. It is the equivalent of imposing trade sanctions on ourselves.

Which confirms that you've never negotiated a deal in your life.

clint van damme · Dec 11, 2018

The Lurker said:
More bullshit. On the form in the ballot box it said do you want to exit the EU? nothing on there about deals and the vote leave won. in the build up David Cameron said the following in or out.

But it's clear that leave didn't mean leave.
You can find contradictory statements about what leave means from all the main protagnists so it's not bullshit and it would have given us clear direction.

Cameron obviously didn't envisage this mess, he didn't envisage us leaving and now the whole thing is a cluster fuck.

martcov · Dec 11, 2018

The Lurker said:
@martcov see you swerved my question about who quoted the numbers on the march.

The numbers were quoted by several sources. Google it. But, I agree that the RT film shows more than 3000. Doubt whether it is any where near 15000 though. I posted a link quoting 5000. They don't say where they got the figure from.

martcov · Dec 11, 2018

The Lurker said:
@martcov see you swerved my question about who quoted the numbers on the march.

The end of the day, the media and remain fucked us over with this need a deal bollocks. there shouldn’t be a deal. we voted out and that’s it. no one mentioned deals in the referendum, the eu will not exist in 10 years. all over Europe there are mass riots. it’s in a mess

The mass riots are not against the EU. There are no riots where I am. Nice Christmas Markets though. I actually agree that people are being fucked over, just I think it is through sections of society getting rich whilst the ones at the bottom aren't. My anger is not directed at the EU. I see the British government as the culprit in the UK. Not asking questions of the right people. Just take SISU as an example. Cayman Isles, anomynous investors etc.. I have tax inspectors, wages inspectors poking through my books every couple of years in Germany ( same in the UK ), whilst money gets shoved back and forth in the background out of sight of the taxman. No right wingers are asking to stop tax havens and increase checks on the people moving the cash around. They are sponsoring people like Tommy, e.g. Rebel Media paying him 5000,00 a month. Why? Why aren't they asking questions of hedge funds instead of paying people to go on about Islam? Why are US billionaires supporting lobbyist/ think tanks to get the UK out of the EU? The EU protects workers' rights and forbids discrimination. e.g. compulsory 4 week paid holidays. Will the backers be campaigning to keep these protections? No. What will you have in your hands if we leave the EU, that you don't have now?

Captain Dart · Dec 11, 2018

ERG said this before, but it is more credible now, there are a lot of people on twitter saying May needs to go.

clint van damme · Dec 11, 2018

Captain Dart said:
ERG said this before, but it is more credible now, there are a lot of people on twitter saying May needs to go.

Even gathering the no confidence letters has been a farce.

Ashdown · Dec 11, 2018

martcov said:
The mass riots are not against the EU. There are no riots where I am. Nice Christmas Markets though. I actually agree that people are being fucked over, just I think it is through sections of society getting rich whilst the ones at the bottom aren't. My anger is not directed at the EU. I see the British government as the culprit in the UK. Not asking questions of the right people. Just take SISU as an example. Cayman Isles, anomynous investors etc.. I have tax inspectors, wages inspectors poking through my books every couple of years in Germany ( same in the UK ), whilst money gets shoved back and forth in the background out of sight of the taxman. No right wingers are asking to stop tax havens and increase checks on the people moving the cash around. They are sponsoring people like Tommy, e.g. Rebel Media paying him 5000,00 a month. Why? Why aren't they asking questions of hedge funds instead of paying people to go on about Islam? Why are US billionaires supporting lobbyist/ think tanks to get the UK out of the EU? The EU protects workers' rights and forbids discrimination. e.g. compulsory 4 week paid holidays. Will the backers be campaigning to keep these protections? No. What will you have in your hands if we leave the EU, that you don't have now?

Workers rights ?! Well we're in the EU and workers are still facing all sorts of travesties. It may get better not worse.

Sky Blue Pete · Dec 11, 2018

Yep angst aimed at wrong target. Tory governments austerity programme is what they should be railing against

Astute · Dec 11, 2018

Sick Boy said:
I’ve already said, a lot of people who previously hadn’t voted went out and voted leave, or perhaps not large enough samples across a variety of places.

How do you explain how they got the General Election polls so wrong?

Asking people who are not registered to vote or asking in the wrong places where it is a stronghold?

Can't be. You have already discounted this idea.

Sky Blue Pete · Dec 11, 2018

Ashdown said:
Workers rights ?! Well we're in the EU and workers are still facing all sorts of travesties. It may get better not worse.

No chance all evidence points to rhees mogg and Johnson and their ilk quashing any changes that support the worker. Look at anti trade union legislation

Ashdown · Dec 11, 2018

Captain Dart said:
ERG said this before, but it is more credible now, there are a lot of people on twitter saying May needs to go.

She's making a fool out of herself now the batty old plonker ! Just walk away from the table Theresa and let someone else go and put two fingers up to them, it's the only way forward now for me. Keep the money and fuck em off before we have anarchy breaking out, then announce a GE for Feb

martcov · Dec 11, 2018

Ashdown said:
Workers rights ?! Well we're in the EU and workers are still facing all sorts of travesties. It may get better not worse.

Do they have guaranteed paid holidays? Are there anti discrimination laws? How will it get better? What additional rights will they get?

martcov · Dec 11, 2018

Ashdown said:
She's making a fool out of herself now the batty old plonker ! Just walk away from the table Theresa and let someone else go and put two fingers up to them, it's the only way forward now for me. Keep the money and fuck em off before we have anarchy breaking out, then announce a GE for Feb

No deal. Years of court cases for the money we owe. Chaos pure. And who do you think will fill the breach? Until now all big mouths have run from responsibilities.

Astute · Dec 11, 2018

clint van damme said:
I have asked several times on here for someone to tell me why trading soley under the WTO wouldn't be a disaster.
I haven't had one salient answer.

Your post sounds along the lines of Liam Fox's assertion that we would sign dozens of trade deals the day after leaving. I don't think even he is trotting that one out any more seen as the average trade deal takes 18 months to negotiate and 4 years to implement.
Even if we can half that it's 9 months and 2 years.
And there can't be any thwarting under WTO rules, nor favours either, although it does go on and lead to disputes but they can take decades to resolve. You trade in line with your schedules until you agree a trade deal so the line about powerful EU middle men is empty rhetoric. They can allow us something which I think is called unilateral contingency and Barnier has indicated they will which will help in the case of a no deal but I think this only applies to service industries.

You'll notice there's a lot of I thinks in there so as I've always said, happy to be corrected on anything I've said.

Nobody knows which way this is going to go. There is as much chance of leaving without a deal as there is remaining in the EU.

Then nobody knows what will happen whichever way it goes. Anyone who says they know is either a liar, hasn't got a clue or has an agenda.

Astute · Dec 11, 2018

Sky Blue Pete said:
Just been advised by a colleague that the people voted to leave and we should just leave. The world won’t end. Oh well I’m convinced

So the people voted to leave so we should remain in the EU?

skyblueinBaku · Dec 11, 2018

martcov said:
No deal. Years of court cases for the money we owe. Chaos pure. And who do you think will fill the breach? Until now all big mouths have run from responsibilities.

Years of court cases? Just ignore them.

Captain Dart · Dec 11, 2018

I don't think May's deal is an option, it has to be no deal then fix the issues that causes or a 2nd referendum to offer exit with no deal or reverse the decision and stay.

We can't go on like this its a bloody farce, the politicians are a bunch of dithering dip shits.

SIR ERNIE · Dec 11, 2018

Captain Dart said:
ERG said this before, but it is more credible now, there are a lot of people on twitter saying May needs to go.

If she had any decency she’d have held the vote today and resigned immediately after she lost. A VOC was always going to be about getting the timing right. In delaying the vote she may also have given herself a bit more time with wavering MPs so there’s still a danger the 48 might be reached too soon. Kick her out and get it done properly.

martcov · Dec 11, 2018

skyblueindorset said:
Years of court cases? Just ignore them.

sounds like a good policy....

Grendel · Dec 11, 2018

martcov said:
If he were focused on WTO from the start, which is the worst case scenario, we would get WTO. WTO is the base line. It is the equivalent of imposing trade sanctions on ourselves.

That shows you have no understanding of negotiation strategy

From the outset any business in the scenario would look at a worst case and prepare for it. So get everything in place for the leave with nothing - sort the issues that would arise so the country will operate seamlessly from Day One and make it very public

A year later start talking and then ask how prepared are you guys in your 27 markets? We are sorted so lets get down to business........

SIR ERNIE · Dec 11, 2018

Grendel said:
That shows you have no understanding of negotiation strategy

From the outset any business in the scenario would look at a worst case and prepare for it. So get everything in place for the leave with nothing - sort the issues that would arise so the country will operate seamlessly from Day One and make it very public

A year later start talking and then ask how prepared are you guys in your 27 markets? We are sorted so lets get down to business........

Absolutely spot on.

westcountry_skyblue · Dec 11, 2018

martcov said:
sounds like a good policy....

Any thoughts on Robins team selections or the court case?
Still not bothered about our football team?

skybluetony176 · Dec 11, 2018

Grendel said:
That shows you have no understanding of negotiation strategy

From the outset any business in the scenario would look at a worst case and prepare for it. So get everything in place for the leave with nothing - sort the issues that would arise so the country will operate seamlessly from Day One and make it very public

A year later start talking and then ask how prepared are you guys in your 27 markets? We are sorted so lets get down to business........

So, how much would preparing for a no deal cost?

SIR ERNIE · Dec 11, 2018

skybluetony176 said:
So, how much would preparing for a no deal cost?

well if it's less than £39bn we're quids in.

clint van damme · Dec 11, 2018

Grendel said:
That shows you have no understanding of negotiation strategy

From the outset any business in the scenario would look at a worst case and prepare for it. So get everything in place for the leave with nothing - sort the issues that would arise so the country will operate seamlessly from Day One and make it very public

A year later start talking and then ask how prepared are you guys in your 27 markets? We are sorted so lets get down to business........

Only in this case we would be operating under WTO rules, our schedule already having been rejected by several WTO members and would be starting from scratch on all trade deals.
Can't say I'm an expert but your post sounds like a massive oversimplification.

skybluetony176 · Dec 11, 2018

SIR ERNIE said:
well if it's less than £39bn we're quids in.

We can look at just one aspect if you like. Customs. It’s been suggested that in a no deal scenario we’ll need another 5000 customs officers. A quick search shows that average wage of a customs officer is £16-£26K per year. That’s going to mean £80-£130M a year in wages alone just to try and call someone’s bluff. Doesn’t sound a sensible strategy to me. What happens if we then get a deal? Do we just make 5000 people redundant on a whim of a negotiating tactic? We’ve also now got a deal so that’s your £39B back out your pocket on top of the £80-£130M+ you’ve just spanked on a hoax. And that’s just one specific of what’s needed for a no deal scenario. Starting to see why JLR is buckling at the knees now if this is the mentality and capability of their apparent senior management.

SIR ERNIE · Dec 11, 2018

skybluetony176 said:
We can look at just one aspect if you like. Customs. It’s been suggested that in a no deal scenario we’ll need another 5000 customs officers. A quick search shows that average wage of a customs officer is £16-£26K per year. That’s going to mean £80-£130M a year in wages alone just to try and call someone’s bluff. Doesn’t sound a sensible strategy to me. What happens if we then get a deal? Do we just make 5000 people redundant on a whim of a negotiating tactic? We’ve also now got a deal so that’s your £39B back out your pocket on top of the £80-£130M+ you’ve just spanked on a hoax. And that’s just one specific of what’s needed for a no deal scenario. Starting to see why JLR is buckling at the knees now if this is the mentality and capability of their apparent senior management is.

What is £100m as a % of £39bn?

martcov · Dec 11, 2018

Grendel said:
That shows you have no understanding of negotiation strategy

From the outset any business in the scenario would look at a worst case and prepare for it. So get everything in place for the leave with nothing - sort the issues that would arise so the country will operate seamlessly from Day One and make it very public

A year later start talking and then ask how prepared are you guys in your 27 markets? We are sorted so lets get down to business........

we drew red lines as the base. The alternative of spending billions getting prepared for something you don't want to happen didn't seem like a good idea at the time as we were told leaving would be easy. Liam Fox and David Davis were constantly saying how easy it would be. How could the PM then tell the country we're getting prepared to drive of a cliff at a cost of billions?

martcov · Dec 11, 2018

SIR ERNIE said:
What is £100m as a % of £39bn?

How do we get out of credit guarantees for EU loans to countries like the Ukraine? Do you really think that it would not effect our credit rating? The same as membership fees? We are paying it whatever happens.

Earlsdon_Skyblue1 · Dec 11, 2018

SIR ERNIE said:
What is £100m as a % of £39bn?

I believe that would be clutching plus straws.

skybluetony176 · Dec 11, 2018

SIR ERNIE said:
What is £100m as a % of £39bn?

One aspect. It’s also a very simplistic view of recruiting a customs officer. First of you’ve got to find 5000 people with the right basic qualifications. You have to train them, that’s a cost. Issue uniforms, that’s a cost. Place the infrastructure required their workplace, that’s a cost ect ect. And remember, this is a bluff to use as a negotiating tactic. We’re still spending your £39B we’re just spanking money for a bluff in hope of getting a better deal. It’s a percentage of the £39B but it’s a percentage on top of that, not instead of it.

martcov · Dec 11, 2018

westcountry_skyblue said:
Any thoughts on Robins team selections or the court case?
Still not bothered about our football team?

Yes, I am bothered about not having a home. As for team selections, I cannot say much as I am stuck here. I will come to the Southend game though, but don't ask me what team to select based on appearing at one game. I hope to come over more towards the end of the season when I have a break.

skybluetony176 · Dec 11, 2018

martcov said:
we drew red lines as the base. The alternative of spending billions getting prepared for something you don't want to happen didn't seem like a good idea at the time as we were told leaving would be easy. Liam Fox and David Davis were constantly saying how easy it would be. How could the PM then tell the country we're getting prepared to drive of a cliff at a cost of billions?

She’s already tried the no deal bluff anyway. Cabinet meetings telling her cabinet to prepare for no deal brexit ect. Unless we are going (although the boat sailed months and months ago) to start spending money in preparation for a no deal brexit its a bluff that was always going to be called. You would have to spend a lot of money to look serious as well.

The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (281 Viewers)

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