This manager of the month "curse" (1 Viewer)

[ccfcway]

everyone keeps mentioning the manager of the month curse and hope that Robins doesnt win it.

Doesnt look like a curse to me...

League One

August - Ronnie Moore - Tranmere
Sept - Ronnie Moore - Tranmere
October - Danny Wilson - Sheff Utd


Bring it on

 

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[covcity4life]

yes a positive thread!!!!!!!!!!!!!! imp::wave:

 

[Astute]

He will win it if we don't lose for the rest of the month. Not often a team in the relegation places goes on a run like we have.

Didn't Tranmere go on a bad run in October though

 

[ccfcway]

He will win it if we don't lose for the rest of the month. Not often a team in the relegation places goes on a run like we have.

Didn't Tranmere go on a bad run in October though

Yer, they took a miserable 10 points from 6 games, including winning 3 of them

 

[Covstu]

yes that's rubbish! well he totally deserves it as we must be one of the most in form teams at present.

 

[1nilandwe...]

I'm not a stats expert, but my theory of the Manager of the Month curse goes something like this:

The award is given to a team which has performed better than anticipated for the preceding month. The law of averages surely states that the following month will not produce performances that are as good. Therefore there's no curse or psychological effect, just good old fashioned maths. The other theory would be that good results would come from an easier run of fixtures. In a similar fashion, the next months fixtures are likely to be more difficult, hence the drop in results.

In no way can I be arsed to go through the stats and test this theory.

I guess what we have to hope is that we have actually improved as a side under MR, and that as such, the good performances continue.

 

[CJparker]

I'm not a stats expert, but my theory of the Manager of the Month curse goes something like this:

The award is given to a team which has performed better than anticipated for the preceding month. The law of averages surely states that the following month will not produce performances that are as good. Therefore there's no curse or psychological effect, just good old fashioned maths. The other theory would be that good results would come from an easier run of fixtures. In a similar fashion, the next months fixtures are likely to be more difficult, hence the drop in results.

In no way can I be arsed to go through the stats and test this theory.

I guess what we have to hope is that we have actually improved as a side under MR, and that as such, the good performances continue.

Yes, in the US they have a similar "curse of Sports Illustrated", whereby anyone appearing on the cover of Sports Illustrated magazine sees a dip in form. Of course, the reason they are on the cover in the first place is because of a higher than normal run of performances, which by definition has to end at some time...hence what mathematicians and statisticians refer to as 'reversion to the mean'.

That said, we are genuinely improving, so it's not all bad

 

[singers_pore]

I'm not a stats expert, but my theory of the Manager of the Month curse goes something like this:

The award is given to a team which has performed better than anticipated for the preceding month. The law of averages surely states that the following month will not produce performances that are as good. Therefore there's no curse or psychological effect, just good old fashioned maths. The other theory would be that good results would come from an easier run of fixtures. In a similar fashion, the next months fixtures are likely to be more difficult, hence the drop in results.

In no way can I be arsed to go through the stats and test this theory.

I guess what we have to hope is that we have actually improved as a side under MR, and that as such, the good performances continue.

Absolutely correct.

There is no need to test the theory as it is already well known in statistics. In fact James Heckman won a Nobel prize in economics for showing how to account for this statistical bias.

 

[Glen]

If he gets it give it back

 

[ccfcway]

pretty sure if he does get it, we will let it go at the last minute

 

[CJparker]

how many times under Robins have we surrendered a lead, vs games under Shaw and or Thorn?