Under the Bookies Radar: (2 Viewers)

Brylowes · Nov 13, 2022

Unusual for me but last night I thought I’d take a look at where we are at in the eyes of the bookies ‘and I was frankly amazed, they don’t seem to have an eye on our current results or form at all.

To win the league outright they’re offering 50/1 on us, they think 12 other teams are more likely winners.
For context they have Burnley 11/8 F, Sheffield Utd 5/2, Blackburn 16/1, QPR 40/1.
To get promoted we are 14/1
Burnley 2/5 F, Sheffield Utd 4/6, Blackburn 9/2, West Brom 8/1, QPR 8/1
And they favour 14 teams ahead of us.

Top 6 Finnish:
They offer 9/2 on us
Burnley 1/14 F, Sheffield Utd 1/8, Blackburn 1/1, Wesr Brom 3/1, QPR 9/4
And they fancy 14 other teams ahead of us in this field.
9/2 is a great price for top 6 finish imo, I think the only thing that could stop us doing it is a bad January transfer window.
Considering a serious wedge in this field but reckon I’ll have to be quick cos the bookies rarely get things wrong, I think they have here tho.

Sick Boy · Nov 13, 2022

Brylowes said:
Unusual for me but last night I thought I’d take a look at where we are at in the eyes of the bookies ‘and I was frankly amazed, they don’t seem to have an eye on our current results or form at all.

To win the league outright they’re offering 50/1 on us, they think 12 other teams are more likely winners.
For context they have Burnley 11/8 F, Sheffield Utd 5/2, Blackburn 16/1, QPR 40/1.
To get promoted we are 14/1
Burnley 2/5 F, Sheffield Utd 4/6, Blackburn 9/2, West Brom 8/1, QPR 8/1
And they favour 14 teams ahead of us.

Top 6 Finnish:
They offer 9/2 on us
Burnley 1/14 F, Sheffield Utd 1/8, Blackburn 1/1, Wesr Brom 3/1, QPR 9/4
And they fancy 14 other teams ahead of us in this field.
9/2 is a great price for top 6 finish imo, I think the only thing that could stop us doing it is a bad January transfer window.
Considering a serious wedge in this field but reckon I’ll have to be quick cos the bookies rarely get things wrong, I think they have here tho.

It’s probably about right, a lot depends on what happens in January.

hill83 · Nov 13, 2022

Sounds about right to me really.

PVA · Nov 13, 2022

Perhaps they hadn't updated the outright odds after yesterday's matches when you looked last night, because I've just looked on Sky Bet now and they have us 9th favourite to win the league (at 50/1)

Greggs · Nov 13, 2022

He's not Finnish.

hill83 · Nov 13, 2022

PVA said:
Perhaps they hadn't updated the outright odds after yesterday's odds when you looked last night, because I've just looked on Sky Bet now and they have us 9th favourite to win the league (at 50/1)

Sounds even righter

Brylowes · Nov 13, 2022

Sick Boy said:
It’s probably about right, a lot depends on what happens in January.

I disagree.
A run of 22pts from 25
10 clean sheets in 13 games.
4 wins on the spin.
This is the type of form that usually stirs the bookie into action, our odds have barely moved.
Also the bookie won’t offer odds now that reflect any transfer business we may do in January.

Sick Boy · Nov 13, 2022

Brylowes said:
I disagree.
A run of 22pts from 25
10 clean sheets in 13 games.
4 wins on the spin.
This is the type of form that usually stirs the bookie into action, our odds have barely moved.
Also the bookie won’t offer odds now that reflect any transfer business we may do in January.

We’d need to sustain that form, which will be a factor in their odds. They’re probably factoring the lack of depth in the squad and the possibility of our top assets going in Jan.
I think the odds are about right - not sure about WBA though!

fatso · Nov 13, 2022

Brylowes said:
Unusual for me but last night I thought I’d take a look at where we are at in the eyes of the bookies ‘and I was frankly amazed, they don’t seem to have an eye on our current results or form at all.

To win the league outright they’re offering 50/1 on us, they think 12 other teams are more likely winners.
For context they have Burnley 11/8 F, Sheffield Utd 5/2, Blackburn 16/1, QPR 40/1.
To get promoted we are 14/1
Burnley 2/5 F, Sheffield Utd 4/6, Blackburn 9/2, West Brom 8/1, QPR 8/1
And they favour 14 teams ahead of us.

Top 6 Finnish:
They offer 9/2 on us
Burnley 1/14 F, Sheffield Utd 1/8, Blackburn 1/1, Wesr Brom 3/1, QPR 9/4
And they fancy 14 other teams ahead of us in this field.
9/2 is a great price for top 6 finish imo, I think the only thing that could stop us doing it is a bad January transfer window.
Considering a serious wedge in this field but reckon I’ll have to be quick cos the bookies rarely get things wrong, I think they have here tho.

If we loose Vik, either sold or injured, we are out of the running.

The bookies will react to the money being placed, so it's not them that dosnt rate us, it's the punters.
But you have to remember that many of the bets would of been placed early in the season when we were marooned at the bottom with off field issues.

shmmeee · Nov 13, 2022

Aren’t odds based on the bets they’ve had in? So is it our fault for not believing?

Londonccfcfan · Nov 13, 2022

Odds reflect an open league.

Top 4 is likely done and dusted between ex premier clubs and other likely teams.

Its anyones guess for that 5th/6th spot.

It would be great if we can maintain and consolidate between 8th to 12th. Till around Easter.

Brylowes · Nov 19, 2022

Seems I was onto something after all, without a single championship game being played our odds in all fields have now shortened, we were 50/1 for the league now 40/1, we were 14/1 to win promotion but we are now 8/1.
I ended up having a good wedge on the bet that stood out for me 9/2 on a top 6 finish, this has now shortened to 3/1 tho I believe 7/2 is available.
What with Doug King confirming no sales in January, I’m fairly confident tbh

higgs · Nov 19, 2022

Brylowes said:
Seems I was onto something after all, without a single championship game being played our odds in all fields have now shortened, we were 50/1 for the league now 40/1, we were 14/1 to win promotion but we are now 8/1.
I ended up having a good wedge on the bet that stood out for me 9/2 on a top 6 finish, this has now shortened to 3/1 tho I believe 7/2 is available.
What with Doug King confirming no sales in January, I’m fairly confident tbh

Had a good wedge on us being relegated looks a bit daft now

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Travs · Nov 19, 2022

We can probably only afford one poor run of form if we are maintain a serious playoff challenge.

I just don't see us being consistent enough (or injury-free) to maintain a challenge right through.

robbiekeane · Nov 19, 2022

Sick Boy said:
We’d need to sustain that form, which will be a factor in their odds. They’re probably factoring the lack of depth in the squad and the possibility of our top assets going in Jan.
I think the odds are about right - not sure about WBA though!

They’ve not factored anything in. The odds are based on the market

pipkin73 · Nov 20, 2022

Travs said:
We can probably only afford one poor run of form if we are maintain a serious playoff challenge.

I just don't see us being consistent enough (or injury-free) to maintain a challenge right through.

IF DK puts the right money in in January, then we could buy squad depth so injuries would not matter so much unless to key players. Even then MR has always found away around it.

Brighton Sky Blue · Nov 20, 2022

Travs said:
We can probably only afford one poor run of form if we are maintain a serious playoff challenge.

I just don't see us being consistent enough (or injury-free) to maintain a challenge right through.

Come back strong in December and we’ll basically be in the same scenario as last January. Squad too small to sustain a top 6 challenge, will the powers that be support it being strengthened or force Robins to shuffle around free transfers if he’s lucky.

SkyblueDad · Nov 20, 2022

My bet his newbies if there are any will be loans

itsabuzzard · Nov 20, 2022

higgs said:
Had a good wedge on us being relegated looks a bit daft now

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Don't throw that slip away just yet. If the King thing turns to shit, the big three get sold and MR decides he's had enough...

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Sky Blue Pete · Nov 20, 2022

itsabuzzard said:
Don't throw that slip away just yet. If the King thing turns to shit, the big three get sold and MR decides he's had enough...

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Don’t apply for a role at the Samaritans

BackRoomRummermill · Nov 20, 2022

Good bet options there - as soon as we appear in the top 6 then they will drop massively

clint van damme · Nov 20, 2022

higgs said:
Had a good wedge on us being relegated looks a bit daft now

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Just now?

clint van damme · Nov 20, 2022

itsabuzzard said:
Don't throw that slip away just yet. If the King thing turns to shit, the big three get sold and MR decides he's had enough...

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Welcome back Mr. Sunshine!

itsabuzzard · Nov 20, 2022

clint van damme said:
Welcome back Mr. Sunshine!

You're too kind. It doesn't pay to be too Pollyanna-ish.

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