XG (3 Viewers)

[Mucca Mad Boys]

These two stats on the BBC Hull preview are pretty bonkers. 3 more home games to go yet as well -

• Coventry have conceded 32 home league goals in 2024, their most since 2015 (also 32), last conceding more in 2013 (38).
• Their average goals conceded per game on home soil in 2024 is their worst (1.68) since their first ever year in the English Football League in 1919 (1.73 per game).

Those stats are pretty damning for Robins.

 

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[MusicDating]

Those stats are pretty damning for Robins.

That was my first thought too.

 

[PVA]

Yes but they contextualise it. As you say study it with the benefit of the details rather than just band an xg figure randomly about.

Perhaps you would prefer to scrap the traditional league table and have an xg table instead?

It’s funny that you talk of contextualising on one hand and then in the next sentence say why don’t we just scrap the league table.

Absolutely nobody suggests it’s the be all and end all. It’s a useful tool for adding context when looking at performances and results, and it’s quite clearly a very good long term indicator of performance.

People just come across as ignorant when dismissing it out of hand as ‘bollocks’.

 

[Old Warwickshire lad]

You can keep your XG’s and the rest, I will stick to walking to the car thinking how the f*** did we not win that!!

 

[AJB1983]

Against West Brom we had 2.24 xG compared to their 0.47, yet we lost 2-0.

essentially it’s saying we missed glaring chances (such as Torp’s header) or created enough to have scored 2 - which I think is fair comment. Compared to West Brom who really didn’t create too much to bother us - they had a wildly deflected shot that would have been saved go in, and then we let one of their strikers waltz to the edge of box to get a shot away. Which agin I think is fair comment.

story of our season - how many games have we been on top and failed to capitalise and score, and then the other team goes up the other end of the pitch and scores with their first/only chances. A fair few that I’ve been at certainly.

 

[oakey]

If you have eyes and a memory better than a goldfish you don't need xg to tell you that we waste goalscoring opportunities and gift soft goals against.

 

[CovInEssex]

If you have eyes and a memory better than a goldfish you don't need xg to tell you that we waste goalscoring opportunities and gift soft goals against.

Yes, but xG quantifies the 'feeling'. This reduces subjective biases or emotions that might influence your judgment while watching a game.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Against West Brom we had 2.24 xG compared to their 0.47, yet we lost 2-0.

essentially it’s saying we missed glaring chances (such as Torp’s header) or created enough to have scored 2 - which I think is fair comment. Compared to West Brom who really didn’t create too much to bother us - they had a wildly deflected shot that would have been saved go in, and then we let one of their strikers waltz to the edge of box to get a shot away. Which agin I think is fair comment.

story of our season - how many games have we been on top and failed to capitalise and score, and then the other team goes up the other end of the pitch and scores with their first/only chances. A fair few that I’ve been at certainly.

Take the emotion out of the result… I certainly left that game thinking we were the better team who created the better chances. On another day, we don’t lose that game and a draw was a fair result.

Hearing WBA fans talk us down annoyed me because WBA didn’t create any meaningful chances barring their second goal and that was elementary defending from us. That said, after they went 1-0 up they didn’t really have to go after a second and could rely on us conceding another even if we drew level.

 

[Alan Dugdales Moustache]

I'm an old fart of nearly 72, and definately old school. So can someone explain what the f**k is xg and how is it supposed to aid statistics?
Just seems pointless to me.

I see this saturation of statistics from MOTD to sky and beyond : expected goals, headers won, corners , shots in the box , shots outside the box , possession in final third, highest number of passes, challenges won, goals concede, shots on target, average dick length per head, blah blah. All completed and utter bollocks. Who fucking cares ?
" Oh Christ, we've concede more goals this game than our expected average . How am I going to cope? "
Take me back to the 1990s please.

 

[AJB1983]

Take the emotion out of the result… I certainly left that game thinking we were the better team who created the better chances. On another day, we don’t lose that game and a draw was a fair result.

Hearing WBA fans talk us down annoyed me because WBA didn’t create any meaningful chances barring their second goal and that was elementary defending from us. That said, after they went 1-0 up they didn’t really have to go after a second and could rely on us conceding another even if we drew level.

Yeah pretty much agree.
Although the first 20 minutes I felt like there was no way we weren’t going to score at some point - if we got one really clear cut chance then it was going in, and I’d be disappointed if we didn’t get a draw at least.
but that never happened did it

 

[wingy]

xG doesn’t take game state into account and because we spend so long chasing games, it will have the effect of skewing our xG upwards and xgA downwards.

We don’t need xG / xgA stats to see just how poor our defending is at times. This is something FL really needs to address. I don’t trust Lati nor Binks so the only person left is Kitching.

I’d happy watch dross football if it meant us winning games 1-0.

That would like under Aidy boothroyd

, functional aggressive etc, except Sisu who decided to cut off the supply lines at Xmas in the boardroom.
I have wonder whether DK might use a similar approach looking ahead to this window or the next one,do we know how Fraser's are doing there was pr piece in one of the paper's around two weeks ago when that chopper was outside the ground?

 

[Frankly_Mr_Shankly]

I'm an old fart of nearly 72, and definately old school. So can someone explain what the f**k is xg and how is it supposed to aid statistics?
Just seems pointless to me.

XG = BOLLOCKS

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

It’s funny that you talk of contextualising on one hand and then in the next sentence say why don’t we just scrap the league table.

Absolutely nobody suggests it’s the be all and end all. It’s a useful tool for adding context when looking at performances and results, and it’s quite clearly a very good long term indicator of performance.

People just come across as ignorant when dismissing it out of hand as ‘bollocks’.

Why not have a panel of judges sitting in the stadium and they each have to give both teams a score out of 10 at the end of the game. Whoever has the highest total score gets the points. Makes the game interesting up until the very end.

 

[Evo1883]

Last season 5 of the top 7 were in the top 7 of the xg table

 

[robbiekeane]

I see this saturation of statistics from MOTD to sky and beyond : expected goals, headers won, corners , shots in the box , shots outside the box , possession in final third, highest number of passes, challenges won, goals concede, shots on target, average dick length per head, blah blah. All completed and utter bollocks. Who fucking cares ?
" Oh Christ, we've concede more goals this game than our expected average . How am I going to cope? "
Take me back to the 1990s please.

so basically you don’t understand statistics that’s okay

 

[Alan Dugdales Moustache]

Last season 5 of the top 7 were in the top 7 of the xg table expected View attachment 40191

Expected excess average bowel movement potential per club based on shit club badges.

 

[Alan Dugdales Moustache]

so basically you don’t understand statistics that’s okay

Do I need to understand statistics or even have them to hand to know if I'm watching genius or dross ?

 

[fatso]

It's just a statistical representation of how well a team is perceived to have played. If your team makes chances most people would say they "played well" and xG just reflects the underlying stats behind that.

I get that, but. (There's always a but)

If a team goes 1-0 up and decides to shut up shop, park the bus and hold onto that lead, then the opposition are almost always going to have way more possession and almost always a better XG.

That would imply that they played well and should of got something from the game, when in actual fact, the team defending were actually comfortable and bossing things. And could of stepped up a gear at any time.

That's pretty much how Wednesdays game at WBA went. Our XG was good but in reality we were well beaten.

 

[fatso]

Those stats are pretty damning for Robins.

Very damning.
And our most expensive defender and our international keeper can't get a game.

 

[Alan Dugdales Moustache]

I get that, but. (There's always a but)

If a team goes 1-0 up and decides to shut up shop, park the bus and hold onto that lead, then the opposition are almost always going to have way more possession and almost always a better XG.

That would imply that they played well and should of got something from the game, when in actual fact, the team defending were actually comfortable and bossing things. And could of stepped up a gear at any time.

That's pretty much how Wednesdays game at WBA went. Our XG was good but in reality we were well beaten.

Perhaps some people like to rush home or to their car and whip out the stats for sexual stimulation.
That's what my mate reckons .

 

[fatso]

Perhaps some people like to rush home or to their car and whip out the stats for sexual stimulation.
That's what my mate reckons .

Yea, it's a case of stats for stats sake imo.
And it's very sad if people need to analyse a game to that degree rather than just watch the game and enjoy it (or not) for what it is.

There's only ever 1 stat that matters, and at this stage of the season you are where you deserve to be in the league.

 

[Alan Dugdales Moustache]

Yea, it's a case of stats for stats sake imo.
And it's very sad if people need to analyse a game to that degree rather than just watch the game and enjoy it (or not) for what it is.

There's only ever 1 stat that matters, and at this stage of the season you are where you deserve to be in the league.

Agreed. Simply watch the game. Leave your phone switched off and and follow what's going on. It's not complicated, which is why so many people watch it.

 

[Jamesimus]

Agreed. Simply watch the game. Leave your phone switched off and and follow what's going on. It's not complicated, which is why so many people watch it.

Hi.

I watched the game and can “simply watch the game” (but maybe not as simply as some posters on here). I don’t really agree with anything @fatso said tbh.

West Brom never looked comfortable. They looked somewhat defensively suspect, only their goalkeeper looked a class above.

They took their one chance very well. The other was a bit of luck involved. We were not “well beaten”. They are an effective / efficient team though; something that we are not at the moment.

If they intended to “shut up shop” after they scored, they did not execute that plan well.

“Stats for stats sake” - then you get shown loads of examples of why it’s a useful stat and just ignore them…

 

[fatso]

I don’t really agree with anything @fatso said tbh.

Fair enough, trust me you won't be the first or the last. And You're entitled to your opinion of course.

 

[robbiekeane]

Agreed. Simply watch the game. Leave your phone switched off and and follow what's going on. It's not complicated, which is why so many people watch it.

pretty boring though no? Do you just forget about the game after or do you chat with your mates about it at the pub?

Stats is a way to quantify what you're seeing in the game, and can help identify patterns over a long period of time. It's fine if its not for you, but to say its "complete bollox" and "who fucking cares" says more about you than anyone else mate

 

[Jamesimus]

Fair enough, trust me you won't be the first or the last. And You're entitled to your opinion of course.

I would gladly take us not playing great, having low xG, but being the effective team and scoring 2 goals whilst keeping a clean sheet today @fatso !

 

[fatso]

I would gladly take us not playing great, having low xG, but being the effective team and scoring 2 goals whilst keeping a clean sheet today @fatso !

Desperately need 3 points today.
The way we get them isn't important.

 

[Jamesimus]

Desperately need 3 points today.
The way we get them isn't important.

I am in agreement here, decent ish performance against WBA with a negative result means I’d accept a crap performance today with a 3 points.