Otis
Well-Known Member
The chances of making the play-offs now is a very long shot. Not being smug, not being negative, just reflecting on the reality that is staring us in the face.
And before anyone states that we are only 3 points behind 6th place, 1 win etc. etc., let me explain why I say what I say. It is all rational and reasoned thinking and not knee jerk reaction.
Also bear in mind that TM himself talked of our having to win 7 games to reach the play-offs. That was a few games back now.
If that is true that means we now need to win 7 out of 11 games. That is an incredible ask and all but impossible task for a team that has only only won 3 out of 17.
Anyway, we need to forget about the 3 point gap and need to look at the bigger picture, that of how many points are needed to be in 6th place at the end of the season.
You have to look at the stats and that brings it all home. Here is a table of how many points have been needed to reach 6th place.
2014/15 6th place - 69 points
2013/14 6th place - 74 points
2012/13 6th place - 74 points
2011/12 6th place - 73 points
2010/11 6th place - 71 points
2009/10 6th place - 80 points
2008/09 6th place - 76 points
2007/08 6th place - 76 points
2006/07 6th place - 75 points
2005/06 6th place - 71 points
2004/05 6th place - 71 points
2003/04 6th place - 73 points
2002/03 6th place - 81 points
2001/02 6th place - 78 points
2000/01 6th place - 75 points
That is the last 15 seasons. You can easily keep going back and back (have looked) and it's the same picture.
Lowest 6th place total is 69 and that was last season. So, let's be really optimistic here and go for the lowest possible total and take that as our target for a minute.
We have 52 points at the moment and would need to get to 69 come the end of the season to reach the very minimum required. That's 17 points from 11 games.
That would equate to:
5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats.
6 wins, 5 defeats.
Remember, this is the very minimum! Does anyone honestly believe, hand on heart, that after just 3 wins in 17 games we can suddenly win 5 out of 11 and only lose 4 more?
I think we just have to face reality and say the dream looks all but over.
Still to play we have
Blackpool A
Swindon H
Peterborough A
Colchester H
Gillingham A
Wigan A
Millwall H
Bradford H
Doncaster A
Sheff Utd H
Oldham A
It's going to take a massive turnaround in our fortunes to even reach the minimum requirement.
If you look at our latest pattern the last 10 matches, we drew against Walsall then lost 3 in a row, then drew against Port Vale, beat Bury, but then lost 4 in a row.
We have lost 7 out of the last 10. I think it is now all over for us, sadly.
As I say, don't look at the 3 points we are behind, look at the points we now need. That is the key stat and that is the stat that brings it all home and now of course we have 2 teams to overtake too. It's out of our hands completely now unless other teams fail.
If someone had said a few weeks back we had coming up, Scunthorpe H, Fleetwood H, Rochdale H and Shrewsbury A and we wouldn't get a single point from any of the the 4 games, we would have laughed very loudly in their faces.
Sadly I think we have blown our chances and just how much psychological damage has been done in our being top 6 all season and then suddenly being kicked out and overtaken by 2 teams in just a few days. The effect of that plus the 7 losses in 10 games has surely left us completely on the ropes.
And before anyone states that we are only 3 points behind 6th place, 1 win etc. etc., let me explain why I say what I say. It is all rational and reasoned thinking and not knee jerk reaction.
Also bear in mind that TM himself talked of our having to win 7 games to reach the play-offs. That was a few games back now.
If that is true that means we now need to win 7 out of 11 games. That is an incredible ask and all but impossible task for a team that has only only won 3 out of 17.
Anyway, we need to forget about the 3 point gap and need to look at the bigger picture, that of how many points are needed to be in 6th place at the end of the season.
You have to look at the stats and that brings it all home. Here is a table of how many points have been needed to reach 6th place.
2014/15 6th place - 69 points
2013/14 6th place - 74 points
2012/13 6th place - 74 points
2011/12 6th place - 73 points
2010/11 6th place - 71 points
2009/10 6th place - 80 points
2008/09 6th place - 76 points
2007/08 6th place - 76 points
2006/07 6th place - 75 points
2005/06 6th place - 71 points
2004/05 6th place - 71 points
2003/04 6th place - 73 points
2002/03 6th place - 81 points
2001/02 6th place - 78 points
2000/01 6th place - 75 points
That is the last 15 seasons. You can easily keep going back and back (have looked) and it's the same picture.
Lowest 6th place total is 69 and that was last season. So, let's be really optimistic here and go for the lowest possible total and take that as our target for a minute.
We have 52 points at the moment and would need to get to 69 come the end of the season to reach the very minimum required. That's 17 points from 11 games.
That would equate to:
5 wins, 2 draws, 4 defeats.
6 wins, 5 defeats.
Remember, this is the very minimum! Does anyone honestly believe, hand on heart, that after just 3 wins in 17 games we can suddenly win 5 out of 11 and only lose 4 more?
I think we just have to face reality and say the dream looks all but over.
Still to play we have
Blackpool A
Swindon H
Peterborough A
Colchester H
Gillingham A
Wigan A
Millwall H
Bradford H
Doncaster A
Sheff Utd H
Oldham A
It's going to take a massive turnaround in our fortunes to even reach the minimum requirement.
If you look at our latest pattern the last 10 matches, we drew against Walsall then lost 3 in a row, then drew against Port Vale, beat Bury, but then lost 4 in a row.
We have lost 7 out of the last 10. I think it is now all over for us, sadly.
As I say, don't look at the 3 points we are behind, look at the points we now need. That is the key stat and that is the stat that brings it all home and now of course we have 2 teams to overtake too. It's out of our hands completely now unless other teams fail.
If someone had said a few weeks back we had coming up, Scunthorpe H, Fleetwood H, Rochdale H and Shrewsbury A and we wouldn't get a single point from any of the the 4 games, we would have laughed very loudly in their faces.
Sadly I think we have blown our chances and just how much psychological damage has been done in our being top 6 all season and then suddenly being kicked out and overtaken by 2 teams in just a few days. The effect of that plus the 7 losses in 10 games has surely left us completely on the ropes.
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