GW46 - Where we should have V did finish this season (11 Viewers)

[ccfcricoh]

Afternoon folks

Just thought i'd setup a thread with the graphs on with our points progress for those that are interested! This is compared to the last 10 years average points achieved by final Champions/Playoff finishers/Relegated in League 2.

Final standings:


Just for reference last years champions (Portsmouth) final position was:

Pos Team P Pts F A GD
1 Portsmouth 46 87 79 40 39
6 Coventry 46 75 64 47 17

PUSB

 

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[Liquid Gold]

Looking good so far

 

[Kneeza]

If you could believe all such stats W*sps will be playing CRFC in the RU Championship next season.

I Believe...

 

[bawtryneal]

Looking really good for Notts County, Exeter and Accrington Stanley then.

 

[Captain Dart]

Accrington & Exeter can't possibly have deep enough squads, surely they'll fall away after Xmas.

 

[hill83]

Oh no. Mate. Remember last time we had a thread like this. We totally fucked it up. Delete the thread.

 

[Astute]

Looking really good for Notts County, Exeter and Accrington Stanley then.

We know we are better than Notts County. We know we are better than Exeter. We will find out that we are better than Accrington.

Does anyone else fancy their chances against us?

 

[skyblue025]

I'm saying top 3. However I retain the right to change my mind once Shitsu have their money maker sorry transfer window in January. Also if Wolves refuse to extend Nazon' s loan until the end of the season. This league is tight and it only takes 1 or 2 players leaving/bad injury to take us from automatics to also rans.

 

[Monty]

Graphs and statistics can show just about anything you want. What predictions show are a prediction based on what has happened before in this case the past 11 games. If the statistics say we ate going to win the league then they must say the same for the 3 teams above us. 4 teams cannot win the league so all we can really pull out of the statistics is that if we keep getting an average of 2 points a game that we will end up with 92 points which is a fantastic total. Yes you would be unlucky not to get automatic promotion or win the league on that amount of points.

 

[stevefloyd]

I'm saying top 3. However I retain the right to change my mind once Shitsu have their money maker sorry transfer window in January. Also if Wolves refuse to extend Nazon' s loan until the end of the season. This league is tight and it only takes 1 or 2 players leaving/bad injury to take us from automatics to also fans.

I am not a Shitsu supporter far from it BUT if our 'fans' keep staying away as they are now we can hardly complain if some of our best assets are sold but at least they are rejecting stupid offers so far so lets be positive and get up to support the team.. If Wolves refuse to extend Ducks loan hopefully we would be in a better position to maybe attract a slightly superior striker, a risk we all know, but as long as Duck keeps scoring and enjoying his time here maybe he would put pressure on the Wolves men that matter to stay until the seasons end...PUSB

 

[Mild-Mannered Janitor]

Problem is, there is already a big divide, if you look at the bottom 4, they are well down on the "average" over those seasons so statistically, applying the same curve is not as accurate as it would imply. You would need to compare more accurately the state of the top 7 this time last year and the bottom 5 as they would indicate whether we really are ahead of the curve or not.

We will be top 7, not sure yet if we have the mental toughness for a top 3 having not achieved top 6 in 48 years. Hope I'm wrong though.

 

[ccfcricoh]

Oh no. Mate. Remember last time we had a thread like this. We totally fucked it up. Delete the thread.

I'll probably give up come Christmas (like last time) when we're all but guaranteed mid table!

Graphs and statistics can show just about anything you want. What predictions show are a prediction based on what has happened before in this case the past 11 games. If the statistics say we ate going to win the league then they must say the same for the 3 teams above us. 4 teams cannot win the league so all we can really pull out of the statistics is that if we keep getting an average of 2 points a game that we will end up with 92 points which is a fantastic total. Yes you would be unlucky not to get automatic promotion or win the league on that amount of points.

Completely agree, obviously 4 teams can't win the league, and it can't really be used in line with current league position because of it, but the stats can't lie, if we carry on with our current average points per game, on average over the last 10 years we would win the league... obviously there's always exceptions (15/16 champions got 99 points but in 12/13 only 83)

Problem is, there is already a big divide, if you look at the bottom 4, they are well down on the "average" over those seasons so statistically, applying the same curve is not as accurate as it would imply. You would need to compare more accurately the state of the top 7 this time last year and the bottom 5 as they would indicate whether we really are ahead of the curve or not.





We will be top 7, not sure yet if we have the mental toughness for a top 3 having not achieved top 6 in 48 years. Hope I'm wrong though.

Yep agree its all "averages", but there's no point comparing it to this time last year and points totals, timing of results is irrelevant, its the total results in a season that makes the average, otherwise the stats would be thrown by teams that had a poor/strong start/finish.





Obviously it needs to be looked at with a pinch of salt, but according to the history the teams currently at the top (Notts/Exeter/Accrington) wont keep their runs going, and similarly, the teams at the bottom will improve (which isn't too difficult!)





We shall see and as more games go by the more accurate it all gets!

Sent from my E6853 using Tapatalk

 

[Otis]

Oh no. Mate. Remember last time we had a thread like this. We totally fucked it up. Delete the thread.

Yeah, but this time we have a proper manager. :emoji_thumbsup:

 

[Liquid Gold]

I'm expecting to see a dip around Jan/Feb when the pitched get all torn up but then we'll go undefeated in March and April to tear it to the title. Only 12k at the Ricoh to see us lift the trophy last game though as £25 is unaffordable.

Thousands of coventry babies called Rod.

 

[Adge]

I'm expecting to see a dip around Jan/Feb when the pitched get all torn up but then we'll go undefeated in March and April to tear it to the title. Only 12k at the Ricoh to see us lift the trophy last game though as £25 is unaffordable.

Thousands of coventry babies called Rod.

Well you're right about the £25!

 

[ccfcchris]

I am not a Shitsu supporter far from it BUT if our 'fans' keep staying away as they are now we can hardly complain if some of our best assets are sold but at least they are rejecting stupid offers so far so lets be positive and get up to support the team.. If Wolves refuse to extend Ducks loan hopefully we would be in a better position to maybe attract a slightly superior striker, a risk we all know, but as long as Duck keeps scoring and enjoying his time here maybe he would put pressure on the Wolves men that matter to stay until the seasons end...PUSB

People wont like this but it is reality.

 

[westcountry_skyblue]

If were in a chance with the title I feel we will fill it even at £25

 

[Houchens Head]

Sorry, but this just looks like coloured string to me.

 

[ccfcricoh]

Sorry, but this just looks like coloured string to me.

Ha unfortunately it's part of my day job!

Just hope the blue string stays higher than the other colours and we're all happy!

Sent from my E6853 using Tapatalk

 

[Houchens Head]

Ha unfortunately it's part of my day job!

Just hope the blue string stays higher than the other colours and we're all happy!

Sent from my E6853 using Tapatalk

I bet you're fun at parties! :emoji_joy: What job consists of making string pictures?

 

[Houchens Head]

As no-one else has asked, I will. What is GW11?

 

[ccfcricoh]

String goes down brilliant at parties I think you'll find...

Cross stitching... Making pictures out of string!

GW = Game week



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[vow]

As no-one else has asked, I will. What is GW11?

Game Week Eleven.

 

[Liquid Gold]

If were in a chance with the title I feel we will fill it even at £25

Nope, its simply unaffordable.

 

[Paxman II]

top of the class!
The realty is we need to maintain good form over 46 games. Nazon as i predicted would come good and lets hope Wolves are in the hunt in the Championship and don't recall him!
Nazon has shown he scores goal from anywhere. McNulty and co I fear are "hard working, get in the box on the end of it types".
I truly believe Jones and Nazon are the key for us plus that mean defence. I'd like to think Stevenson and Haynes will help make us even stronger when fully fit.

 

[Houchens Head]

Game Week Eleven.

I would have thought "Wk.11" would be easier to understand? Ah well. The joys of getting old. New generations, new languages. :emoji_thinking:

 

[Adge]

As no-one else has asked, I will. What is GW11?

Glad you asked that!

 

[Adge]

Nope, its simply unaffordable.

I think people are confusing "affording" the cost of £26 and "refusing to pay £26" as they consider it over the top for L2 football.

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

We know we are better than Notts County. We know we are better than Exeter. We will find out that we are better than Accrington.

Does anyone else fancy their chances against us?

At our place - no. Away from home I am twitchy against a lot of teams (starting with Barnet away!)

 

[Sky Blue Harry H]

Nope, its simply unaffordable.

How come the poor Northerners like Leeds, Sheffield United, Wednesday manage to afford to go. It's choice mainly - not 'can't afford. People have got out of the habit, that's all. People pay to watch Wasps and buy a few beers, so money is there?

 

[Colin Steins Smile]

Too early to speculate.
Can we bin this thread until the end of March please? If we're in the mix for promotion at that point......we can start projecting results to the end of season to see if we can get out of this pub league!

 

[Astute]

We will be top 7, not sure yet if we have the mental toughness for a top 3 having not achieved top 6 in 48 years. Hope I'm wrong though.

If we had the same players for the last 48 years I would agree. But we don't.

And the players we have like Doyle that have done it before won't have suddenly lost any mental toughness as you put it.

 

[Houchens Head]

Too early to speculate.
Can we bin this thread until the end of March please? If we're in the mix for promotion at that point......we can start projecting results to the end of season to see if we can get out of this pub league!

Totally agree. Silly string graphics never solved anything! And statistics? What do they prove? We could have 20 shots on target and have them all saved, but have just ONE shot via a penalty against us.................? :emoji_laughing:

 

[Houchens Head]

 

[Londonccfcfan]

Afternoon folks

Just thought i'd setup a thread with the graphs on with our points progress for those that are interested! This is compared to the last 10 years average points achieved by final Champions/Playoff finishers/Relegated in League 2.

I wont set one up each match but hopefully i can just edit this one...

Latest result: GW11 - Crewe (H) 1-0 win

Points to current game week:
View attachment 8111

Final points estimate at end of season:
View attachment 8112

All looking good so far and we're going to win the league!

Just for reference last years champions (Portsmouth) position at this stage was:

Pos Team P Pts F A GD
1 Portsmouth 11 28 28 9 19
4 Coventry 11 22 14 6 8

Keep it up City!

I must correct you. Lies lies lies

At this stage last season Portsmouth after 11 games had 17 points not 28. for 18 Against 12, Gd 6 not 19.

So in effect well ahead of them at same point in season.