The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (35 Viewers)

[Captain Dart]

Euro falls after ECB says it will cut back on bond-buying from January.

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EU falling apart? LOL

 

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[Grendel]

what has the EU been worse off got to do with anything? I'm worried about our future.
And how does the EU and the UK coming to an agreement, (something you said hasn't been happening), and said agreement being scuppered by several WTO members constitute a deal?
I'm still waiting for someone to explain how been under WTO rules is going to benefit us but no one has, what I'm reading tells me we won't but when you start looking into it it's fairly confusing so I could be easily persuaded that it will be better if someone can clearly explain how.

The WTO rules will benefit no one in a businesss trading in the EU but will increase balance of trade by around £7 billion - the cost to uk businesses is around £5billion

 

[Astute]

what has the EU been worse off got to do with anything? I'm worried about our future.
And how does the EU and the UK coming to an agreement, (something you said hasn't been happening), and said agreement being scuppered by several WTO members constitute a deal?
I'm still waiting for someone to explain how been under WTO rules is going to benefit us but no one has, what I'm reading tells me we won't but when you start looking into it it's fairly confusing so I could be easily persuaded that it will be better if someone can clearly explain how.

Nobody has said that WTO rules will benefit us. Just like WTO rules won't benefit the EU. And it is up to the EU as to if we can come to a deal and not have to use WTO rules. But you know that.

So what you are saying is that you are worried that those running the EU don't want to have a deal with us. And you are asking what it has to do with the EU being worse off than us. It sounds like you don't want there to be a deal and for it all to go badly wrong so you can be proven right.

 

[clint van damme]

Nobody has said that WTO rules will benefit us. Just like WTO rules won't benefit the EU. And it is up to the EU as to if we can come to a deal and not have to use WTO rules. But you know that.

So what you are saying is that you are worried that those running the EU don't want to have a deal with us. And you are asking what it has to do with the EU being worse off than us. It sounds like you don't want there to be a deal and for it all to go badly wrong so you can be proven right.

you've totally misunderstood my point. And the EU has trade agreements with the rest of the world, we possibly won't have post Brexit.
You have no idea what will happen if we go under WTO rules, I don't think any one does.
I'm trying to find out but no one appears to be able to tell me.

Grendel has tried with this

The WTO rules will benefit no one in a businesss trading in the EU but will increase balance of trade by around £7 billion - the cost to uk businesses is around £5billion

but I don't think anyone can make this assertion because we don't know what terms we will be trading under or if we will comply with WTO technical barriers to trade. One :who thinks it will be difficult and one who puts a positive spin on it but I think both give an idea of the complexity:

Nothing simple about UK regaining WTO status post-Brexit | International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development
KPMG's Awful Error - Brexit And The Cost Of The Great British Breakfast

There is also a good article in the FT with quotes from the head of the WTO Roberto Azevêdo but it's subscription only.

 

[Astute]

you've totally misunderstood my point. And the EU has trade agreements with the rest of the world, we possibly won't have post Brexit.
You have no idea what will happen if we go under WTO rules, I don't think any one does.
I'm trying to find out but no one appears to be able to tell me.

Grendel has tried with this


but I don't think anyone can make this assertion because we don't know what terms we will be trading under or if we will comply with WTO technical barriers to trade. One :who thinks it will be difficult and one who puts a positive spin on it but I think both give an idea of the complexity:

Nothing simple about UK regaining WTO status post-Brexit | International Centre for Trade and Sustainable Development
KPMG's Awful Error - Brexit And The Cost Of The Great British Breakfast

There is also a good article in the FT with quotes from the head of the WTO Roberto Azevêdo but it's subscription only.

Took me 5 seconds with a google search

WTO | Understanding the WTO - principles of the trading system

 

[skybluetony176]

Is it me or does WTO membership sound a lot like EU membership? Only with tariffs between us and our biggest trading partners. Yippee!

 

[clint van damme]

Took me 5 seconds with a google search

WTO | Understanding the WTO - principles of the trading system

that's just the principles, I think you're being flippant.
Get hold of the FT article I was on about and see what the head of the WTO says about the UK re-establishing itself as a WTO country.
Look into TBTTs, look at the Express article I linked regarding farming quotas been rejected, it's not a clear picture, it;s complex, but you know that.

 

[skybluetony176]

but you know that.

I really don’t think he does. And there’s the issue.

 

[Astute]

that's just the principles, I think you're being flippant.
Get hold of the FT article I was on about and see what the head of the WTO says about the UK re-establishing itself as a WTO country.
Look into TBTTs, look at the Express article I linked regarding farming quotas been rejected, it's not a clear picture, it;s complex, but you know that.

Me being flippant? You have that the wrong way round.

So a journalist from the FT knows more than the WTO on how the WTO works?

As they say it is more complex than the dumbed down version they gave. But they also said that the basics on all trading is the same. And they have put it so even you can understand.

Next you will be saying that the EU isn't complex.

 

[Astute]

I really don’t think he does. And there’s the issue.

You two backing each other up. What a surprise.

He says he can't find anything. I find it in 5 seconds. You can see the legal jargon and pretend that you know what it means if you like.

 

[Astute]

Is it me or does WTO membership sound a lot like EU membership? Only with tariffs between us and our biggest trading partners. Yippee!

So you haven't read it. Or is it that you can't even understand the dumbed down version?

 

[clint van damme]

Me being flippant? You have that the wrong way round.

So a journalist from the FT knows more than the WTO on how the WTO works?



As they say it is more complex than the dumbed down version they gave. But they also said that the basics on all trading is the same. And they have put it so even you can understand.

Next you will be saying that the EU isn't complex.

you're not even reading my posts properly.
Here's something similar to the FT article on Reuters but this was pre referendum the FT one is post referendum.

World trade chief says post-Brexit 'WTO option' may be unfeasible for UK

but you found the WTO guidelines on the internet in 5 seconds so everything will be OK,

 

[Astute]

you're not even reading my posts properly.
Here's something similar to the FT article on Reuters but this was pre referendum the FT one is post referendum.

World trade chief says post-Brexit 'WTO option' may be unfeasible for UK

but you found the WTO guidelines on the internet in 5 seconds so everything will be OK,

So it says WTO option may be unfeasible. Yes may.


And you are ignoring that we already sell a lot more under WTO rules than we do to the EU. And that is when having the EU on our doorstep with membership costing us billions each year and not being able to make trade deals with the rest of the world.

I am not ignoring what you say. But you are pro EU and anti everything else. You keep up with your scare tactics when nobody knows what is going to happen. Yes we know it could go wrong. But it could also go well. But somewhere in the middle is where the odds are it will end up. You ignore all those in the rest of the EU that keep saying that they want a deal. You ignore most of the bad going on in the EU. And all you can see is a catastrophe for us.

 

[skybluetony176]

Here’s a fair guide to the transition. Farming in the U.K. could be in for a hit. 10 things to know about the World Trade Organization (WTO)

 

[clint van damme]

So it says WTO option may be unfeasible. Yes may.


And you are ignoring that we already sell a lot more under WTO rules than we do to the EU. And that is when having the EU on our doorstep with membership costing us billions each year and not being able to make trade deals with the rest of the world.

I am not ignoring what you say. But you are pro EU and anti everything else. You keep up with your scare tactics when nobody knows what is going to happen. Yes we know it could go wrong. But it could also go well. But somewhere in the middle is where the odds are it will end up. You ignore all those in the rest of the EU that keep saying that they want a deal. You ignore most of the bad going on in the EU. And all you can see is a catastrophe for us.

I am not pro or anti EU, I am pro UK.
And I am just trying to understand what will happen if we go under WTO rules. The head of the WTO himself said we are in a unique situation where we are leaving a functioning trading block and it won't be easy to re-establish ourselves.
And I have linked an article by one of the main pro WTO economists to try and create some balance so it's hardly like I am actively pursuing an agenda.
One of the main things that concerns me is TBTTs. Yes, you can Google it and get a explanation of how they work but that doesn't explain how they will work for us in our situation if we need to bring them into play which we may not if we can copy and paste from the agreements the EU has with it's rest of the world partners which we currently are governed by.

 

[Astute]

Here’s a fair guide to the transition. Farming in the U.K. could be in for a hit. 10 things to know about the World Trade Organization (WTO)

Could.
Might.
Maybe.

Yes we all get that.

The worse thing about Brexit is the uncertainty. The world is a big place. We will be able to trade more freely once out of the EU. But it will take time to strike deals with other countries. And there will be difficulties. Nobody has said anything else.

There are advantages and disadvantages of being either in or out of the EU.

Once settled down being out of the EU could be a massive advantage. But it might not be. We will be able to make deals with countries all over the world. EU rules stop us from doing so. And the EU is just a small part of the world.

 

[clint van damme]

Could.
Might.
Maybe.

Yes we all get that.

The worse thing about Brexit is the uncertainty. The world is a big place. We will be able to trade more freely once out of the EU. But it will take time to strike deals with other countries. And there will be difficulties. Nobody has said anything else.

There are advantages and disadvantages of being either in or out of the EU.

Once settled down being out of the EU could be a massive advantage. But it might not be. We will be able to make deals with countries all over the world. EU rules stop us from doing so. And the EU is just a small part of the world.

"We will be able to make deals with countries all over the world"

and that's why I'm trying to understand with regard to the WTO, it may not be as easy as we think, there are those that present a case that it won't be as well as those that think it will.
That's what I'm looking for clarity on, how long does it take to re-establish as country trading under WTO rules? Some people are painting a bleak picture which is worrying but they could be wrong.
If you look at comments made on this issue by WTO President Roberto Azevêdo going back to before the referendum right up until the last couple of weeks even he has sent out contradictory statements and mixed messages.
My take is that once we're up and running under WTO rules we'll be OK, it's the getting to that point which is going to be a problem. Who knows, it may not be relevant, Laim Fox may sign the 40 deals at a minute past midnight in March 2019 but I wouldn't hold my breath on that one.

 

[Astute]

I am not pro or anti EU, I am pro UK.
And I am just trying to understand what will happen if we go under WTO rules. The head of the WTO himself said we are in a unique situation where we are leaving a functioning trading block and it won't be easy to re-establish ourselves.
And I have linked an article by one of the main pro WTO economists to try and create some balance so it's hardly like I am actively pursuing an agenda.
One of the main things that concerns me is TBTTs. Yes, you can Google it and get a explanation of how they work but that doesn't explain how they will work for us in our situation if we need to bring them into play which we may not if we can copy and paste from the agreements the EU has with it's rest of the world partners which we currently are governed by.

This is where the uncertainty is. It is why it would be best to have trade deals with the EU. This would give more certainty whilst coming to agreement with countries around the world. Something we have not been able to do because of EU rules.

But although we have not been able to strike deals with other countries we still sell much more to them than we do to the EU. So in the long run it could be good for us.

Personally I think this EU crap that is going on is all about getting us to stay in it.

At least we didn't join the Euro. That is one less problem.

What you must also remember is that with having our own currency the value of it will depend on how well or badly we are doing. If it doesn't go well our currency will devalue. That will make our goods cheaper. This would soon wipe out the difference of most tariffs. Then we would sell more. This is why many EU countries are struggling and always will while in the Euro. And it is why Germany is at a massive advantage.

 

[Sick Boy]

Brexit impact on Northern Ireland could sway border poll result: survey - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk

 

[Astute]

"We will be able to make deals with countries all over the world"

and that's why I'm trying to understand with regard to the WTO, it may not be as easy as we think, there are those that present a case that it won't be as well as those that think it will.
That's what I'm looking for clarity on, how long does it take to re-establish as country trading under WTO rules? Some people are painting a bleak picture which is worrying but they could be wrong.
If you look at comments made on this issue by WTO President Roberto Azevêdo going back to before the referendum right up until the last couple of weeks even he has sent out contradictory statements and mixed messages.
My take is that once we're up and running under WTO rules we'll be OK, it's the getting to that point which is going to be a problem. Who knows, it may not be relevant, Laim Fox may sign the 40 deals at a minute past midnight in March 2019 but I wouldn't hold my breath on that one.

You have hit the nail on the head.

We already trade with the rest of the world under WTO rules. But with us being in the EU their rules stop us from making trade deals with the rest of the world. And these deals won't happen overnight. And we won't suddenly stop trading with the EU either. We need their trade and they need ours. The worse thing for us is the uncertainty. There is a chance of it going badly wrong for a few years. There is a chance of it going very well from the off. But I don't expect either to happen. Those that expect either are normally biased either way. And there are a lot of biased people out there.

 

[Sick Boy]

We have trade deals with other countries at the moment as we are one of the countries making up the EU.

EU to trade ‘much’ more with Australia and New Zealand after Brexit

 

[clint van damme]

You have hit the nail on the head.

We already trade with the rest of the world under WTO rules. But with us being in the EU their rules stop us from making trade deals with the rest of the world. And these deals won't happen overnight. And we won't suddenly stop trading with the EU either. We need their trade and they need ours. The worse thing for us is the uncertainty. There is a chance of it going badly wrong for a few years. There is a chance of it going very well from the off. But I don't expect either to happen. Those that expect either are normally biased either way. And there are a lot of biased people out there.

the worry is that it takes years to re-establish ourselves and as we get more desperate we get taken advantage off. This may be an unlikely scenario but when there is uncertainty there will be concern about how things pan out.

 

[Astute]

Brexit impact on Northern Ireland could sway border poll result: survey - BelfastTelegraph.co.uk

If and could.

So if it goes wrong they could vote to leave the UK. But look at the numbers. Whatever happens they are still leaning towards staying in the UK.

 

[Astute]

the worry is that it takes years to re-establish ourselves and as we get more desperate we get taken advantage off. This may be an unlikely scenario but when there is uncertainty there will be concern about how things pan out.

We are already established. It is only trade agreements for reductions/no tariffs that we don't have. And we are not allowed until we leave the EU.

 

[Sick Boy]

If and could.

So if it goes wrong they could vote to leave the UK. But look at the numbers. Whatever happens they are still leaning towards staying in the UK.

I was suggesting they weren't, it's just interesting reading.

 

[Astute]

We have trade deals with other countries at the moment as we are one of the countries making up the EU.

EU to trade ‘much’ more with Australia and New Zealand after Brexit

Read what it says.

Yes the EU are to start talks befire we can because of EU rules. But different EU countries want different things. That will always be the problem when all members have to agree. So they can have a 2 year head start but not get very far in this time.

 

[Astute]

I was suggesting they weren't, it's just interesting reading.

It all makes interesting reading as long as you can get past biased headlines and biased reporting.

Just like the article you linked. They say could. But there is a large majority against what they say. And if it all goes wrong there is still a majority that wants to stay in the UK. So for this 'could' to happen there needs to be a hard Brexit and lots more people to change their minds. And all these numbers are from the same reporter.

 

[clint van damme]

We are already established. It is only trade agreements for reductions/no tariffs that we don't have. And we are not allowed until we leave the EU.

but that isn't what the head of the WTO said recently, but as I said in my previous post, he has contradicted himself more than once.

 

[Sick Boy]

It all makes interesting reading as long as you can get past biased headlines and biased reporting.

Just like the article you linked. They say could. But there is a large majority against what they say. And if it all goes wrong there is still a majority that wants to stay in the UK. So for this 'could' to happen there needs to be a hard Brexit and lots more people to change their minds. And all these numbers are from the same reporter.

In that case a lot of your posts are based on 'could' and 'might'.

 

[Astute]

but that isn't what the head of the WTO said recently, but as I said in my previous post, he has contradicted himself more than once.

They have all contradicted themselves. It is as though all involved are trying to keep all sides happy but are only causing much distrust.

 

[Astute]

In that case a lot of your posts are based on 'could' and 'might'.

Yes they are. And I have said so many times. I have not said anything will happen. Where I have stated a view is where I have said what direction I think things will go in.

I have not been after an argument on here. Just playing devils advocate. But most comments have been on how bad things will be and not how bad things could get. And nobody knows what will happen.

 

[Captain Dart]

Is it me or does WTO membership sound a lot like EU membership? Only with tariffs between us and our biggest trading partners. Yippee!

No.

 

[mrtrench]

No.

Have to disagree... it is just him.

 

[fernandopartridge]

Have to disagree... it is just him.

I think Dart was saying no to the assertion that EU membership and WTO membership were somehow comparable

 

[fernandopartridge]

We have trade deals with other countries at the moment as we are one of the countries making up the EU.

EU to trade ‘much’ more with Australia and New Zealand after Brexit

Why after Brexit? What's held it up until now? I bet the array of European wine producers, in particular the French, Italian and Spanish will ensure this deal is agreed very quickly.