The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (388 Viewers)

[Grendel]

Actually, many Brexiters do live in the 70s. Even Farage was a 70s National Front Fan whilst at school. The people in the photo of leave means leave were of an age where they would have spent their youth in the 60s and 70s. I can understand their nostalgia.

The question is loaded. It can set it’s own budget. Theoretically it can plan 3% of borrowing, but seeing as it is already massively in debt it will need to have agreement from other countries in the Eurozone. The Netherlands and Austria have requested the EU to take action if it stays by the new plan of 2,4%. The old plan was 0,8% and would be acceptable to the partners in the Euro. Italy agreed to these conditions. They were not forced upon Italy.

I have explained about bond yield impact caused by a lowering of ratings. You missed it. Too busy writing insulting incorrect posts.

The article that Astute posted by an economist pointed out that there are no good options for Italy. Reform is urgently needed in the Eurozone and economists disagree with each other as to what to do in the case of Italy. You no doubt have the answer which no expert has yet thought of.

The writer said we shouldn’t be frightened by populists into making the wrong decision.

Since when do we have referenda on the running of a currency or how much we should pay in tax or the government should borrow? Is that what you call democracy?

I would rather have parliamentary democracy with serious candidates, which delegates the running of the financial institutions to professionals. Obviously a rule based financial system - as in the Eurozone. Preferably a PR democracy as that offers a wider palette of parties to choose from. As in the European Parliament or other European countries. Much more democratic as FPTP or a House of Lords type system.

You obviously have a different understanding of democracy.

“It will need to have agreement from other EU countries” - so it’s a no then - thanks

 

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[martcov]

Mart lives his in own delusional bubble.

He hilariously mocks the Brexiteers as living in the 70’s but urges greater decision making through centralism when modern thinking supports devolution of power.

He says I asked a question that was loaded. The question was can Italy set its own budget. The answer is NO they need permission from other countries to decide their fiscal and economic strategy. Fancy that - that’s really hip and modern.

Then there was a question i asked for an A or B answer as I assumed he had some numerate dyslexia. That was is such acts of denying a country’s elected government the power to make its own decisions result in greater desire for nationalism and a rise of the far right. Answer is A yes it does.

I’m still waiting for responses on the following:

Bond yield impact
Downgrading of credit impact
Crucially what the country would do in the event of an economic collapse when it clearly has no authority to act freely.

Mart says Europe are there to “help” - it’s the sort of “help” doctor shipman offered to his patients.

Send the boys round and tell them what they can and cannot do. What if course they cannot do is any fiscal strategy that requires borrowing what they feel they need.

It’s hilarious he pointed to an article that showed all you need to know about the capitalist club and why we need to leave.

What Mart cannot and never will get is that the club is the antithesis of normal democracy and independent thought. He won’t ever get it because of the fact he lives in a country which is top of the euro tree.

The decaying roots at the bottom he does not care about as they make his life even better as the elite can bung tariff free goods and destroy their business or produce their at massive labour cost reduction.

That’s classic centralist federalism. It’s classic far right dogma. The few control the many and the few reap the benefits.

Your last two paragraphs are goboldy gook. I don’t what is far right about a European Parliament and representation of 28 states in decision making. I thought the EU was the EUSSR? The far right as represented by right wing Tories is the dismantling of regulations and workers rights and the forcing of absolute free market economics. That is the purpose of Brexit for the far right economic vision. It really is for the few. The EU is accused of making regulations not dismantling them. The EU guarantees that no rights will be taken away once confirmed in EU law. The far right would never support that. Hence their support for Brexit.

 

[martcov]

“It will need to have agreement from other EU countries” - so it’s a no then - thanks

The other European countries who are co signatories, along with Italy, of the stability pact. Not the EU as a whole. The countries objecting to the budget are members of the Euro, not just the EU. The Netherlands and Austria. I don’t see your problem. If you sign an agreement then you accept the terms of the agreement. What is your point? That they have to agree to what they agreed?

 

[Grendel]

The other European countries who are co signatories, along with Italy, of the stability pact. Not the EU as a whole. The countries objecting to the budget are members of the Euro, not just the EU. The Netherlands and Austria. I don’t see your problem. If you sign an agreement then you accept the terms of the agreement. What is your point? That they have to agree to what they agreed?

Which oddly is the same as countries in the EUSSR and I hate to have to educate you in politics but despite its so called people republic status it was a classic far right ideology.

 

[Grendel]

Your last two paragraphs are goboldy gook. I don’t what is far right about a European Parliament and representation of 28 states in decision making. I thought the EU was the EUSSR? The far right as represented by right wing Tories is the dismantling of regulations and workers rights and the forcing of absolute free market economics. That is the purpose of Brexit for the far right economic vision. It really is for the few. The EU is accused of making regulations not dismantling them. The EU guarantees that no rights will be taken away once confirmed in EU law. The far right would never support that. Hence their support for Brexit.

This is desperate stuff.

The centralisation of power diluted the ability of influence. If you had a government in every street you’d have more influence than a city, than a county, than a country, than a continent.

Far right tories? Most tories support the euro project.

The point is though that the devolution of decision making to the country itself allows the country to decide the ideology it wishes to follow. If it did not like the ideology it’s rejected by the ballot box. Votes in Europe are diluted as you have 1/28th of the policy making even if 100% of the electorate are as one.

By your own admission if the other 27 countries produced results which delivered far right extremists as the majority in Brussels the uk could never remove that collective could it?

 

[Captain Dart]

When was the last time Italy was bailed out?

It won't be Germany alone, which is why Austria have expressed concern about Italy's budget plans.

Concern it isn't, it is a demand to rewrite it.
EU rejects debt-hit Italy's budget

 

[martcov]

This is desperate stuff.

The centralisation of power diluted the ability of influence. If you had a government in every street you’d have more influence than a city, than a county, than a country, than a continent.

Far right tories? Most tories support the euro project.

The point is though that the devolution of decision making to the country itself allows the country to decide the ideology it wishes to follow. If it did not like the ideology it’s rejected by the ballot box. Votes in Europe are diluted as you have 1/28th of the policy making even if 100% of the electorate are as one.

By your own admission if the other 27 countries produced results which delivered far right extremists as the majority in Brussels the uk could never remove that collective could it?

The far right, from an Economics pov, are blackmailing May through the ERG and the right wing religious nuts through the DUP.

The centralization has not taken away your right to influence British politics. You may not be able to influence the curvature of Bananas or a host of other regulations, but that would be the same with any goods classification. You cannot reintroduce the death penalty or reduce people‘s rights, but in your daily life you still have influence. We have influence through the council, the parliament and various parliamentary committees in the EU.

If Brussels were taken over by 27 democratically elected governments that were right wing, we would have to accept their influence. They couldn’t be dictatorships as that is against the EU laws.

 

[martcov]

This is desperate stuff.

The centralisation of power diluted the ability of influence. If you had a government in every street you’d have more influence than a city, than a county, than a country, than a continent.

Far right tories? Most tories support the euro project.

The point is though that the devolution of decision making to the country itself allows the country to decide the ideology it wishes to follow. If it did not like the ideology it’s rejected by the ballot box. Votes in Europe are diluted as you have 1/28th of the policy making even if 100% of the electorate are as one.

By your own admission if the other 27 countries produced results which delivered far right extremists as the majority in Brussels the uk could never remove that collective could it?

You claim that the Italian bond rate is linked to German Staatsanleihen.

„Following the announcement, the Italy-Germany 10-year bond yield gap, widely used as a relative yardstick of Italy's position on the markets, widened to a new high of 314 points.“

The description here is „as a yardstick“. That is not linked in any way than a comparison.

The Italians are spending as much on servicing their debt as in education. At the moment. It will get worse if their gamble fails.

It is understandable why they want to move things, but it is a complex issue. There will be a compromise as both sides have good arguments..

 

[martcov]

This is desperate stuff.

The centralisation of power diluted the ability of influence. If you had a government in every street you’d have more influence than a city, than a county, than a country, than a continent.

Far right tories? Most tories support the euro project.

The point is though that the devolution of decision making to the country itself allows the country to decide the ideology it wishes to follow. If it did not like the ideology it’s rejected by the ballot box. Votes in Europe are diluted as you have 1/28th of the policy making even if 100% of the electorate are as one.

By your own admission if the other 27 countries produced results which delivered far right extremists as the majority in Brussels the uk could never remove that collective could it?

You also claim that the EU is a fiscal union.

„ That policy is being wound down, and is in any case unsustainable without a wider reform of the eurozone into a fiscal union, as President Macron proposes (and Chancellor Merkel rejects).“

According to you it already is a fiscal union. Wrong yet again.

 

[Grendel]

You claim that the Italian bond rate is linked to German Staatsanleihen.

„Following the announcement, the Italy-Germany 10-year bond yield gap, widely used as a relative yardstick of Italy's position on the markets, widened to a new high of 314 points.“

The description here is „as a yardstick“. That is not linked in any way than a comparison.

The Italians are spending as much on servicing their debt as in education. At the moment. It will get worse if their gamble fails.

It is understandable why they want to move things, but it is a complex issue. There will be a compromise as both sides have good arguments..

As you’ve quoted the first paragraph in inverted commas you clearly have huge understanding on this point

Articulate this to the wider forum can you?

 

[Grendel]

You also claim that the EU is a fiscal union.

„ That policy is being wound down, and is in any case unsustainable without a wider reform of the eurozone into a fiscal union, as President Macron proposes (and Chancellor Merkel rejects).“

According to you it already is a fiscal union. Wrong yet again.

How would you define fiscal union? I’d argue that lack of autonomy over budgetary policy dictates fiscal unity.

Would you explain why in your opinion this is not the case?

 

[martcov]

As you’ve quoted the first paragraph in inverted commas you clearly have huge understanding on this point

Articulate this to the wider forum can you?

Certainly. It is not linked. If Italian bonds have 4% interest. German Staatsanleihen don’t rise with them.

 

[Astute]

Italy owes 2,100,000,000,000. In words that is 2.1 trillions. Even if they only had to pay back at 2% interest it would be 40,000,000,000 a year. Yes 40 billion a year in interest alone at only 2%. The reason their debt is going up so quickly is they are lending to cover their debt repayments. And their economy isn't doing very well. They still haven't caught up with where they were in 2008.

 

[Captain Dart]

Italy owes 2,100,000,000,000. In words that is 2.1 trillions. Even if they only had to pay back at 2% interest it would be 40,000,000,000 a year. Yes 40 billion a year in interest alone at only 2%. The reason their debt is going up so quickly is they are lending to cover their debt repayments. And their economy isn't doing very well. They still haven't caught up with where they were in 2008.

Is it time to devalue the lira... I mean the Euro.

 

[Ashdown]

Actually, many Brexiters do live in the 70s. Even Farage was a 70s National Front Fan whilst at school. The people in the photo of leave means leave were of an age where they would have spent their youth in the 60s and 70s. I can understand their nostalgia.

The question is loaded. It can set it’s own budget. Theoretically it can plan 3% of borrowing, but seeing as it is already massively in debt it will need to have agreement from other countries in the Eurozone. The Netherlands and Austria have requested the EU to take action if it stays by the new plan of 2,4%. The old plan was 0,8% and would be acceptable to the partners in the Euro. Italy agreed to these conditions. They were not forced upon Italy.

I have explained about bond yield impact caused by a lowering of ratings. You missed it. Too busy writing insulting incorrect posts.

The article that Astute posted by an economist pointed out that there are no good options for Italy. Reform is urgently needed in the Eurozone and economists disagree with each other as to what to do in the case of Italy. You no doubt have the answer which no expert has yet thought of.

The writer said we shouldn’t be frightened by populists into making the wrong decision.

Since when do we have referenda on the running of a currency or how much we should pay in tax or the government should borrow? Is that what you call democracy?

I would rather have parliamentary democracy with serious candidates, which delegates the running of the financial institutions to professionals. Obviously a rule based financial system - as in the Eurozone. Preferably a PR democracy as that offers a wider palette of parties to choose from. As in the European Parliament or other European countries. Much more democratic as FPTP or a House of Lords type system.

You obviously have a different understanding of democracy.

What a crock of desperate crap

 

[martcov]

What a crock of desperate crap

Vey intelligent well thought out answer.

 

[martcov]

Italy owes 2,100,000,000,000. In words that is 2.1 trillions. Even if they only had to pay back at 2% interest it would be 40,000,000,000 a year. Yes 40 billion a year in interest alone at only 2%. The reason their debt is going up so quickly is they are lending to cover their debt repayments. And their economy isn't doing very well. They still haven't caught up with where they were in 2008.

Which is why the other countries of the Eurozone are not happy with a 2,4% borrowing requirement. It increases the debt and means a lowering of ratings and even higher interest payments.

 

[martcov]

How would you define fiscal union? I’d argue that lack of autonomy over budgetary policy dictates fiscal unity.

Would you explain why in your opinion this is not the case?

I agree with this definition:

„It is often proposed that the European Union should adopt a form of fiscal union. Most member states of the EU participate in economic and monetary union (EMU), based on the eurocurrency, but most decisions about taxes and spending remain at the national level. Therefore, although the European Union has a monetary union, it does not have a fiscal union.“

 

[Astute]

Is it time to devalue the lira... I mean the Euro.

And that is the problem with being tied to the Euro and how well Germany does. If they still had the Lira they could have devalued years ago. Then they wouldn't be in this mess.

But now they are left with two choices. Keep borrowing to keep repaying or default.

If they keep borrowing they get further in the shite. If they default the EU and Euro will be at risk. One way out would be having debts written off. As Germany holds a lot of the debt they could do it. But would they?

It depends a lot on how much Germany wants to defend the EU and still being able to sell to Italy.

 

[Grendel]

I agree with this definition:

„It is often proposed that the European Union should adopt a form of fiscal union. Most member states of the EU participate in economic and monetary union (EMU), based on the eurocurrency, but most decisions about taxes and spending remain at the national level. Therefore, although the European Union has a monetary union, it does not have a fiscal union.“

Of course you would as it’s as independent as a statement from Russia that the Salisbury poisoning was not an act committed by Russia.

So is a country’s budget part of its fiscal decision making

Is it a YES or is it a NO?

 

[martcov]

Of course you would as it’s as independent as a statement from Russia that the Salisbury poisoning was not an act committed by Russia.

So is a country’s budget part of its fiscal decision making

Is it a YES or is it a NO?

A fiscal union necessitates a unified tax system. A monetary union doesn’t. That is why it is called fiscal and not monetary. Look up fiscal in a dictionary. The answer is it is not all fiscal as it is not just about taxation. We are talking about a fiscal union and your question is not relevant to that.

 

[Grendel]

A fiscal union necessitates a unified tax system. A monetary union doesn’t. That is why it is called fiscal and not monetary. Look up fiscal in a dictionary. The answer is it is not all fiscal as it is not just about taxation. We are talking about a fiscal union and your question is not relevant to that.

I didn’t say fiscal union I said decision making . However I have already demonstrated that fiscal constraints are placed on members which they cannot move from

Is this a correct statement Mart

Yes or no?

 

[martcov]

I didn’t say fiscal union I said decision making . However I have already demonstrated that fiscal constraints are placed on members which they cannot move from

Is this a correct statement Mart

Yes or no?

As part of a monetary union. Not as part of a fiscal union. There is a difference. Italy is not forced to apply the same taxes as Germany. There is no EU Finance ministry to coordinate tax. We agreed voluntarily to the minimum VAT ( which includes exceptions). But, what other taxes are covered by a „fiscal union“.

 

[martcov]

I didn’t say fiscal union I said decision making . However I have already demonstrated that fiscal constraints are placed on members which they cannot move from

Is this a correct statement Mart

Yes or no?

The Eurozone is a monetary union. All members have accepted and promised to agree to the terms of the monetary union. That was the decision. The EUC has turned a blind eye before. But, Italy is in a precarious position and at the seme time wants to break it’s agreement. Yes there are agreed financial constraints, but not a fiscal union.

 

[martcov]

I didn’t say fiscal union I said decision making . However I have already demonstrated that fiscal constraints are placed on members which they cannot move from

Is this a correct statement Mart

Yes or no?

You said that I am implying that there isn’t a fiscal union. You think there is. I have said before that many think there should be a fiscal union in the Eurozone. Including Macron. Germany doesn’t want one. Now you are trying to twist it round that you by no means were talking about a fiscal union. You were.

I agree that there is a monetary union. Without a monetary union you cannot run the Euro. Some say there has to be a complete fiscal union which covers all finances including taxation.

 

[Grendel]

As part of a monetary union. Not as part of a fiscal union. There is a difference. Italy is not forced to apply the same taxes as Germany. There is no EU Finance ministry to coordinate tax. We agreed voluntarily to the minimum VAT ( which includes exceptions). But, what other taxes are covered by a „fiscal union“.

“We agreed” - so the answer is yes there is fiscal control.

Thanks we are slowly getting somewhere

 

[martcov]

“We agreed” - so the answer is yes there is fiscal control.

Thanks we are slowly getting somewhere

No we are not. You were on about a fiscal union and accused me of claiming there wasn‘t one. You now say you only meant there were fiscal restraints. Which is what I said in the first place. These relate to deficit/ borrowing and do not include taxation. Apart from a minimum VAT applying to all EU countries. So just admit that I was right and we can get somewhere. The point being that that the fiscal restraints were signed by all partners in order that the Euro project could go ahead. Italy wants to break the rules they agreed to, which is a crisis. The Italian government are populists and populists tend to be reckless. Which can be successful, but can equally end in a disaster.

 

[Sick Boy]

And that is the problem with being tied to the Euro and how well Germany does. If they still had the Lira they could have devalued years ago. Then they wouldn't be in this mess.

But now they are left with two choices. Keep borrowing to keep repaying or default.

If they keep borrowing they get further in the shite. If they default the EU and Euro will be at risk. One way out would be having debts written off. As Germany holds a lot of the debt they could do it. But would they?

It depends a lot on how much Germany wants to defend the EU and still being able to sell to Italy.

I take it that you'd also be fine with Italy's debt to the UK being written off then?

 

[Captain Dart]

I take it that you'd also be fine with Italy's debt to the UK being written off then?

What fun it is playing with the numbers.
Eurozone debt web: Who owes what to whom?

PS that graphic is 7 yrs old..

 

[Astute]

I take it that you'd also be fine with Italy's debt to the UK being written off then?

Why is it that you are not allowed to comment on this thread in a neutral way?

Or would you like to point out where I have said that Germany should write off their debt with Italy if that is what you are insinuating.

I suppose that Italy will be OK without trade or holidaymakers from the UK too.

This is the point I have tried to make countless times. Everything isn't as sweet in the EU as some like to make out. There will have to be some hard choices made. And continuing with this non negotiating farce will hurt more than the UK.

 

[martcov]

Why is it that you are not allowed to comment on this thread in a neutral way?

Or would you like to point out where I have said that Germany should write off their debt with Italy if that is what you are insinuating.

I suppose that Italy will be OK without trade or holidaymakers from the UK too.

This is the point I have tried to make countless times. Everything isn't as sweet in the EU as some like to make out. There will have to be some hard choices made. And continuing with this non negotiating farce will hurt more than the UK.

95% has been negotiated according to May. The UK is refusing to accept a backstop which 27,5 countries would be happy with.

Everyone knows that the world including the EU is not perfect. The EU is an attempt to create a better system than allowed WWII to happen. Brexit isn’t there to make the world a better place.

 

[Sick Boy]

Why is it that you are not allowed to comment on this thread in a neutral way?

Or would you like to point out where I have said that Germany should write off their debt with Italy if that is what you are insinuating.

I suppose that Italy will be OK without trade or holidaymakers from the UK too.

This is the point I have tried to make countless times. Everything isn't as sweet in the EU as some like to make out. There will have to be some hard choices made. And continuing with this non negotiating farce will hurt more than the UK.

You suggested that Germany should consider writing off Italian debt, so why should it be different for Italy's debt to other countries, like the UK?
I'm not sure what holidaymakers have to do with anything? Italy is one of the most popular tourist destinations in the world with UK citizens making up 6% of visitors. How would the UK fare with tourists not coming to it from the EU? Weird you have never touched up on this.

What non-negotiating face? Negotiations have been ongoing recently.

 

[Ashdown]

Martcov............ I Can't be bothered to drag up all your posts highlighting my point but I think you are so against Brexit because you are associating it too much with some of the right wing politicians who have backed it. You seem to see Nazi's in all the shadows, you have spoken so much about issues with German right wing media and parties and in other countries. You are a bit obsessed and see it as a victory for these types when in essence it was a victory for democracy in many ways. Both the Remain and Leave campaigns were quite insulting and threatening to the British public but at the end of the day, it was offered to the people and the people made their choice. There will be good and bad consequences to come out of all this for the UK I'm sure and our trading partners if they don't seek to find a way to smooth the transition. The UK is a multi ethnic, multi faith, multi coloured community. Probably one of the most accepting, welcoming, generous and forgiving people too and none of that will change because we are not in the Euro club anymore.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

You suggested that Germany should consider writing off Italian debt, so why should it be different for Italy's debt to other countries, like the UK?
I'm not sure what holidaymakers have to do with anything? Italy is one of the most popular tourist destinations in the world with UK citizens making up 6% of visitors. How would the UK fare with tourists not coming to it from the EU? Weird you have never touched up on this.

What non-negotiating face? Negotiations have been ongoing recently.

No he didn't. He suggested it wpuld be an option & then asked "but why would they?"

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

[martcov]

Martcov............ I Can't be bothered to drag up all your posts highlighting my point but I think you are so against Brexit because you are associating it too much with some of the right wing politicians who have backed it. You seem to see Nazi's in all the shadows, you have spoken so much about issues with German right wing media and parties and in other countries. You are a bit obsessed and see it as a victory for these types when in essence it was a victory for democracy in many ways. Both the Remain and Leave campaigns were quite insulting and threatening to the British public but at the end of the day, it was offered to the people and the people made their choice. There will be good and bad consequences to come out of all this for the UK I'm sure and our trading partners if they don't seek to find a way to smooth the transition. The UK is a multi ethnic, multi faith, multi coloured community. Probably one of the most accepting, welcoming, generous and forgiving people too and none of that will change because we are not in the Euro club anymore.

Part right part wrong.

I am concerned about the people associated with Brexit. Extremely dodgy and untrustworthy, and the link through Bannon/ Farage to Trump, even more untrustworthy.

The German right wing press is nothing compared to the Sun , Mail, Telegraph and Express. There is nothing that bad here. In fact the right wing press here hate Farage. Nickname Brexsack - Brexitbollocks.
The German right wing media does not concern me at all.

There are far worse German sites on the internet of course.

Whilst I agree that we have a tradition of accepting migrants, your description is a bit like Conn‘s description of the „warm atmosphere“ that Wasps have created at the Ricoh. Poetic licence to make a point.

No doubt there will be bad things coming out of this, but I have yet to be convinced of the good things at some future indeterminate time.

As for Nazis, there are plenty around. There always were, but the Internet has given them a tool to meet and communicate with each other. They are now EU wide and meet regularly. Here at concerts. Concert being the cover for gatherings.