The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (59 Viewers)

[skybluetony176]

In 2015, EEA countries and Switzerland claimed against the NHS for over £674 million

The vast majority of who work and live in the U.K. paying taxes. How many millions did they pay in in the same period? Or should that be billions? So when you say we don’t claim it back I’m not sure how you’re reaching that conclusion as EU citizens tax contributions are paying for it in advance.

 

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[Sky Blue Pete]

The first aspect is nonsense because my point isn’t that the 1975 is binding — nothing can bind parliament, even the EU. The irony of you saying there was no ‘what Europe are you voting for’ is that right now, the public hasn’t decided ‘what Brexit are you voting for’. As was the concept of Europe vague in 1975, the concept of Brexit is even vaguer in 2018.

If you want a political science debate, so be it. If you want to be technical, referendums aren’t legally binding to the government. They are advisory, and the government has gone away, attempted to carry out the referendum result and is in a position where it cannot do so. The government physically cannot pass a Brexit deal at this moment. The Government will likely face an opposition motion of no confidence as well. Tell me, what is the alternative to another GE and/or referendum? The government has lost the confidence of parliament. These aren’t the words of a lefty ‘remoaner’, they are the words of Rees-Mogg. If Parliament votes down the agreement on 21st January, the government will have to call an election and/or referendum. So no, referendums aren’t necessarily generational, especially when the country is in a state of crisis.

What am I afraid of? A no-deal Brexit which, if projections are accurate, could lead to a loss of 5-9% of GDP, which is catastrophic. So a second referendum is an opportunity for the public to either reaffirm its commitment to Brexit OR to change its mind. This is an infinitely a better solution than to sleep walk into Brexit.

I think that’s really well put. Where id differ is what the second refurrendum opportunity is. It’s confirming their commitment to their stated will to leave the Eu knowing what that means practically or knowing what that means practically deciding on balance not to leave the Eu. It’s a completely differently question with more information.

I don’t even think leaving with no deal is possible. It would tie the country up in legalease for the foreseeable future and instead of one agreement that is complex and difficult we’d need to make hundreds.

 

[Ashdown]

No, it's not a 'big if'. The Government has taken the 'best case' and 'worse case' scenarios, including May's own plan, and has still concluded that Brexit will be bad for the economy. This isn't a guess of what will happen, it's a calculation, know the difference.

Brexit will make UK worse off, government warns

Reality Check: What is an economic forecast?

Here's a parliamentary paper on Brexit, from Jan 2018:

https://www.parliament.uk/documents...EU-Exit-Analysis-Cross-Whitehall-Briefing.pdf

I expect a temporary dip in GDP both here and in the EU until the chaos dies down and deals are sorted out for the mutual benefit of all importers and exporters involved. I just hope our producers who are not reliant on either importing components or ingredients from the EU or exporting to it are gearing up to pick up the slack.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

I think that’s really well put. Where id differ is what the second refurrendum opportunity is. It’s confirming their commitment to their stated will to leave the Eu knowing what that means practically or knowing what that means practically deciding on balance not to leave the Eu. It’s a completely differently question with more information.

I don’t even think leaving with no deal is possible. It would tie the country up in legalease for the foreseeable future and instead of one agreement that is complex and difficult we’d need to make hundreds.

The likelihood of a no-deal Brexit is a real possibility. The deal isn’t passing in Parliament, and a general election or a change in PM doesn’t change the Brexit deadline. It is possible that the government could revoke its triggering of Article 50 until the result of a new referendum OR a new government wanted to reset the Brexit process. Technically, Brexit can be stopped by revoking it’s triggering Article 50, according to the European Courts. If that’s the case, presumably the retriggering of Article 50 would reset the process. Otherwise, we have to ask the EU to extend the period, or risk crashing out whatever we do.

For anyone that is a Brexiteer, it’s worth noting that a significant portion of opposition to May’s deal is actually the Brexiteers themselves who aren’t content with the deal. It’s easy to see why they oppose it because it isn’t really a ‘proper’ Brexit. As we’ll still be tied to the EU, namely the customs union. A Norwegian-style relationship ties us to EU rules and regulations without having a say in matters like we did as full members. It’s dumb.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

I expect a temporary dip in GDP both here and in the EU until the chaos dies down and deals are sorted out for the mutual benefit of all importers and exporters involved. I just hope our producers who are not reliant on either importing components or ingredients from the EU or exporting to it are gearing up to pick up the slack.

2.5% drop in GDP is huge. Anything more than a 5% drop in GDP is an economic catastrophe.

 

[Ashdown]

UK Exports to 2016 ; Germany £29.7 billion, Holland £17.5 billion, France £17.5 billion, Belgium £ 10.8 billion, Italy £8.9 billion
UK Imports from 2016; Germany £ 59 billion, Holland £ 31.4 billion, France £22.5 billion, Belgium £ 21.2 billion, Italy £15.6 billion
I'm really thinking that some rather big industrialists and money men in Europe are going to demand some trade deals pronto ??

 

[Deleted member 5849]

No, it's not a 'big if'. The Government has taken the 'best case' and 'worse case' scenarios, including May's own plan, and has still concluded that Brexit will be bad for the economy. This isn't a guess of what will happen, it's a calculation, know the difference.

Brexit will make UK worse off, government warns

Reality Check: What is an economic forecast?

Here's a parliamentary paper on Brexit, from Jan 2018:

https://www.parliament.uk/documents...EU-Exit-Analysis-Cross-Whitehall-Briefing.pdf

You should know, that occasionally experts' predictions don't pan out, so therefore we should ignore those who have the expertise and tools to make predictions, in favour of the ranty bloke down the pub.

It's the new way, sadly.

 

[Sick Boy]

Makes me laugh seeing Farage on the TV trying portray himself as a man of the people and going on about the political class - hahaha! He also seems to have forgotten that he was advocating the Norway-option pre-referendum too.

 

[skybluetony176]

UK Exports to 2016 ; Germany £29.7 billion, Holland £17.5 billion, France £17.5 billion, Belgium £ 10.8 billion, Italy £8.9 billion
UK Imports from 2016; Germany £ 59 billion, Holland £ 31.4 billion, France £22.5 billion, Belgium £ 21.2 billion, Italy £15.6 billion
I'm really thinking that some rather big industrialists and money men in Europe are going to demand some trade deals pronto ??

I think that’s what is known as Foxonomics. He was assuming the same.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

UK Exports to 2016 ; Germany £29.7 billion, Holland £17.5 billion, France £17.5 billion, Belgium £ 10.8 billion, Italy £8.9 billion
UK Imports from 2016; Germany £ 59 billion, Holland £ 31.4 billion, France £22.5 billion, Belgium £ 21.2 billion, Italy £15.6 billion
I'm really thinking that some rather big industrialists and money men in Europe are going to demand some trade deals pronto ??

UK Exports to 2016 ; Germany £29.7 billion, Holland £17.5 billion, France £17.5 billion, Belgium £ 10.8 billion, Italy £8.9 billion
UK Imports from 2016; Germany £ 59 billion, Holland £ 31.4 billion, France £22.5 billion, Belgium £ 21.2 billion, Italy £15.6 billion
I'm really thinking that some rather big industrialists and money men in Europe are going to demand some trade deals pronto ??

It's in everyone's interest to get a free trade deal, but that's not on a table until Brexit is finalised.

But, here's a question for you:

Would you accept a free trade deal with the EU where you'd have to adhere to their rules and regulations, but we have no influence over what those rules and regulations are?

 

[The Lurker]

the fact of the matter is no one knows what will happen if we have no deal. predictions are just that, predictions. the scaremongering from remain is embarrassing. the British public voted leave and that should be what happens. if it doesn’t happen the country will become weak in the eyes of Europe and further afield

 

[clint van damme]

UK Exports to 2016 ; Germany £29.7 billion, Holland £17.5 billion, France £17.5 billion, Belgium £ 10.8 billion, Italy £8.9 billion
UK Imports from 2016; Germany £ 59 billion, Holland £ 31.4 billion, France £22.5 billion, Belgium £ 21.2 billion, Italy £15.6 billion
I'm really thinking that some rather big industrialists and money men in Europe are going to demand some trade deals pronto ??

Of course they are. But it won't happen overnight and everyone will take a hit us most of all.

 

[skybluegod]

The vast majority of who work and live in the U.K. paying taxes. How many millions did they pay in in the same period? Or should that be billions? So when you say we don’t claim it back I’m not sure how you’re reaching that conclusion as EU citizens tax contributions are paying for it in advance.

Again I know someone who does a lot of the work with the NHS, excluding that it is still multiple million we don't claim back.

Furthermore, if they are living and contributing here, then we wouldn't have the right to claim back due to the reasons you say would we? ( genuine question) It's also a two way street in that the people living in Spain etc, will be paying for healthcare wouldn't it?

 

[Deleted member 5849]

And right on cue,

the fact of the matter is no one knows what will happen if we have no deal. predictions are just that, predictions. the scaremongering from remain is embarrassing. the British public voted leave and that should be what happens. if it doesn’t happen the country will become weak in the eyes of Europe and further afield

And right on cue, here's the ranty man from the pub, completely ignoring those who've been trained and have years of experience to make such predicitions.

Sure, they may not pan out.

But to ignore the experts is downright idiotic.

 

[clint van damme]

the fact of the matter is no one knows what will happen if we have no deal. predictions are just that, predictions. the scaremongering from remain is embarrassing. the British public voted leave and that should be what happens. if it doesn’t happen the country will become weak in the eyes of Europe and further afield

10,000 lorries pass through Dover every day.
Over 90% of them are from the EU. They take 2 minutes average to process.
Non EU trucks take 20 minutes average to process.
The UK road haulers association estimate that just an additional 2 minutes per EU truck will lead to 17 mile tail back, that's in the unlikely event the extra checks and administration can be done in 2 minutes.
If we don't do a deal that process will start on 30th March next year.
You think that's scaremongering?

 

[Ashdown]

Double whammy for the EU as well when the ECB turn off the QE stimulus that has helped prop up growth there for the last 3 years !

 

[The Lurker]

And right on cue,

And right on cue, here's the ranty man from the pub, completely ignoring those who've been trained and have years of experience to make such predicitions.

Sure, they may not pan out.

But to ignore the experts is downright idiotic.

trained? most have a hidden agenda

away from parliament and 3rd party companies forecast was that GROWTH would be reduced, NOT that the economy would shrink if we leave with no deal.

 

[Ian1779]

How would a second referendum, ‘people’s vote’ be a betrayal of democracy?

A lot of people don’t understand the situation we’re in as a country. May’s Brexit deal is going to get smashed in Parliament, as you’d think most of the 117 Tory MPs who had ‘no confidence’ in May will vote against it. If this happens, the government is deadlocked because it cannot pass its Brexit deal. The government will have to seek a new mandate from the people, with another general election or a second referendum. Our MPs are elected to vote with their consciences on behalf of their constituents, that’s representative democracy.

This ‘betrayal’ you talk of sounds like you’re spitting your dummy out because the Brexit wasn’t as utopian as the likes of Farage, Boris, Gove and Rees-Mogg made out to the public. Liam Fox’s ‘EU trade deal will “easiest” to negotiate in history’ turned out to be laughable — and goes to show how Leavers underestimated the Brexit process.

I do understand his point. I feel that the problem is largely because of who front's the 'peoples vote' and/or second referendum. You have people like Blair, Mandelson, Campbell who are toxic at best in British Politics post Iraq, as well as Lib Dems that were part of the coalition. Then you have flip-floppers like Umanna, Soubry and 'celebrity voters' all endorsing this idea. It's looks shit with these people at the front, who come across to the public as condescending, patronising and in the original 3's case - downright bullshitters. They have zero credibility. Even someone like Caroline Lucas who I respect as a politician has her image 'damaged' by association with these people.

People in the North of England that may have voted to leave (and this is Labour's big problem to deal with) because their town's are dying post-industry and just see all investment staying in the south of England. They see London centric people at the front of this movement and feel abandoned and neglected, just like they were before the referendum. And yes I do acknowledge that these area's will probably be worse off post-Brexit, so goodness knows how you solve that problem.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

the fact of the matter is no one knows what will happen if we have no deal. predictions are just that, predictions. the scaremongering from remain is embarrassing. the British public voted leave and that should be what happens. if it doesn’t happen the country will become weak in the eyes of Europe and further afield

Want to know what really does look weak?

A Government that has lost the confidence of Parliament and cannot pass its Brexit deal.

Why do Brexiteers frame the referendum as the end of the matter? It was just the start of things.

I did an essay in 2015 at uni, stating why Britain should stay in the EU. It was pretty obvious that a Brexit would open up a can of worms before the result. Scottish, Welsh (not so much since they voted Leave) and N Irish independence is now back on the table. But, more on track, the likelihood of a referendum ratifying the deal was pretty high — that was assuming a government could actually get a deal through Parliament!

 

[Grappa]

Here's a simple to understand explanation of the 'world trade deal' A World Trade Deal, It Ain't

Though I suspect that those who have made up their minds will completely ignore it and continue to 'trust their instincts'.

 

[The Lurker]

10,000 lorries pass through Dover every day.
Over 90% of them are from the EU. They take 2 minutes average to process.
Non EU trucks take 20 minutes average to process.
The UK road haulers association estimate that just an additional 2 minutes per EU truck will lead to 17 mile tail back, that's in the unlikely event the extra checks and administration can be done in 2 minutes.
If we don't do a deal that process will start on 30th March next year.
You think that's scaremongering?

Maybe the answer is to have fewer imports and fewer lorries. Produce our own car parts, reduce carbon emissions, raise employment. Stupid idea I know.
And why would any lorries be traveling through Dover after a No Deal Brexit anyway? No one in the EU will be willing to sell us anything or buy anything from us after we leave, surely? Or maybe they’ll be happy to sell to the giant locusts that will by then be ruling over us

 

[The Lurker]

Want to know what really does look weak?

A Government that has lost the confidence of Parliament and cannot pass its Brexit deal.

Why do Brexiteers frame the referendum as the end of the matter? It was just the start of things.

I did an essay in 2015 at uni, stating why Britain should stay in the EU. It was pretty obvious that a Brexit would open up a can of worms before the result. Scottish, Welsh (not so much since they voted Leave) and N Irish independence is now back on the table. But, more on track, the likelihood of a referendum ratifying the deal was pretty high — that was assuming a government could actually get a deal through Parliament!

lol soon as you said university I just had to laugh. the one places where most get brainwashed by lecturers. the uk is a strong economy and will look to the outside if we cave in. don’t they teach you anything at uni except for leftie bullshit

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

UK Exports to 2016 ; Germany £29.7 billion, Holland £17.5 billion, France £17.5 billion, Belgium £ 10.8 billion, Italy £8.9 billion
UK Imports from 2016; Germany £ 59 billion, Holland £ 31.4 billion, France £22.5 billion, Belgium £ 21.2 billion, Italy £15.6 billion
I'm really thinking that some rather big industrialists and money men in Europe are going to demand some trade deals pronto ??

True enough but big game of poker to lose at

 

[clint van damme]

Maybe the answer is to have fewer imports and fewer lorries. Produce our own car parts, reduce carbon emissions, raise employment. Stupid idea I know.
And why would any lorries be traveling through Dover after a No Deal Brexit anyway? No one in the EU will be willing to sell us anything or buy anything from us after we leave, surely? Or maybe they’ll be happy to sell to the giant locusts that will by then be ruling over us

Becuase of current supply chains and on going contracts which will be massively disrupted and contribute to the loss of GDP which has been mentioned.
Make more of our own stuff? Great idea, would love to see it. You need investment to move away from the low skilled to high skilled manufacturing economy.
We've got a government who have no interest in encouraging that kind of investment in the British workforce.

And giant locusts couldn't do a worse job than the current mob

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

I do understand his point. I feel that the problem is largely because of who front's the 'peoples vote' and/or second referendum. You have people like Blair, Mandelson, Campbell who are toxic at best in British Politics post Iraq, as well as Lib Dems that were part of the coalition. Then you have flip-floppers like Umanna, Soubry and 'celebrity voters' all endorsing this idea. It's looks shit with these people at the front, who come across to the public as condescending, patronising and in the original 3's case - downright bullshitters. They have zero credibility. Even someone like Caroline Lucas who I respect as a politician has her image 'damaged' by association with these people.

People in the North of England that may have voted to leave (and this is Labour's big problem to deal with) because their town's are dying post-industry and just see all investment staying in the south of England. They see London centric people at the front of this movement and feel abandoned and neglected, just like they were before the referendum. And yes I do acknowledge that these area's will probably be worse off post-Brexit, so goodness knows how you solve that problem.

Precisely, the Brexit vote was a manifestation of people who are dissatisfied with the political establishment, people who had felt 'left behind'. Similar reasons why American voters turned to Trump. I had a v bad feeling about Brexit when my mum called me at uni, we got talking about the referendum and she said all the people in the pub she worked at were unanimously voting Leave.

The case for a second referendum becomes more out of necessity as the days pass. Theresa May has said she'll stand down as leader before the next election (chances are there'll be a snap election) and she can't get her deal through Parliament. Again, I'm trying to take my own biases out of the equation and view what I believe will, or has to happen. To sum it up, this Government cannot carry on if it loses this vote in Parliament.

I'm not even saying a second referendum will reverse the result of the first one (the likelihood is it would). But, it satisfies everyone. If Leave won again, Parliament will have to back a deal, and Brexiteers get their divorce bill. If Remain wins, then Brexit doesn't happen. Why would the outcome of a second referendum be stronger than the first? Everyone knows what Brexit will look like, so the electorate can't be fed lies like the £350m per week for the NHS and be told how 'easy' free trade negotiations will be and so on.

There isn't a great desire for a referendum, but the government cannot carry on at this moment.

 

[clint van damme]

lol soon as you said university I just had to laugh. the one places where most get brainwashed by lecturers. the uk is a strong economy and will look to the outside if we cave in. don’t they teach you anything at uni except for leftie bullshit

Everyone who went to university is a leftie! Jesus!

Is that like everyone who voted Brexit is a racist?!

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

lol soon as you said university I just had to laugh. the one places where most get brainwashed by lecturers. the uk is a strong economy and will look to the outside if we cave in. don’t they teach you anything at uni except for leftie bullshit

Frankly, this conversation shows that if anyone is 'brainwashed,' it is you.

Most of my lecturers were actually on the centre-right, I had two lecturers who were on the left and neither peddled their ideologies in their lecturers or seminars. Most students are centrist and I know more people who shifted rightwards at uni than leftwards. Universities are places where you study independently and taught to engage with a variety of ideas and ideologies and come to your own conclusions.

Don't get confused by some of the more ridiculous stories from across the Atlantic in North America.

You know nothing about the university system, stop talking rubbish.

Ps. A self-professed Marxist lecturer of mine actually voted Leave. Friends of mine who are communists voted Leave too. I interacted with the idea of ‘Lexit’ (left wing exit) and ultimately disagreed with the premise of Brexit. Remain and Leave isn’t a battle between ‘left’ and ‘right’ because they’re cross-sectional — people on both sides of the political spectrum voted Remain and Leave.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

It's in everyone's interest to get a free trade deal, but that's not on a table until Brexit is finalised.

But, here's a question for you:

Would you accept a free trade deal with the EU where you'd have to adhere to their rules and regulations, but we have no influence over what those rules and regulations are?

Gonna have to

 

[westcountry_skyblue]

Remember the millennium when they said planes would fall out of the sky because of the clock changes etc.... The world was gonna end Just like when we voted out
I’d take our chance with those so called “Experts” predictions the gravy train may be ending for a few of them.....Anyone seen the Kinnocks?????

 

[clint van damme]

Remember the millennium when they said planes would fall out of the sky because of the clock changes etc.... The world was gonna end Just like when we voted out
I’d take our chance with those so called “Experts” predictions the gravy train may be ending for a few of them.....Anyone seen the Kinnocks?????

You do realise lots of programming work went in to making sure those problems didn't happen, (yes planes falling out of the sky was an exaggeration).

 

[Deleted member 5849]

Everyone who went to university is a leftie! Jesus!

Is that like everyone who voted Brexit is a racist?!

Good old lefties Johnson and Rees Mogg.

It'd make Corbyn not a leftie, too...

 

[Astute]

Two in 2012. One was of which was riderless. Maybe he was loving it so much he thought it’s never going to get better than this so I’ll end it now.

Increase in race horse deaths recorded by Animal Aid - Animal Aid

Of course you will end this now. Because it is clearly an anti UK rant and stick up for the EU whatever.

How about having a look at your anti UK rant in detail?

We are monsters because we allow horse racing. It is at least as bad as bull fighting you say. And it is even worse because some horses go for horse meat.

Defend the EU as usual then.

Do the other countries in the EU have horse racing?

How much horse meat is eaten in the UK?

How much is eaten in the other countries of the EU? Yes that is where the market for horse meat is. But strangely enough you never mentioned it once.

Why do you have to constantly attack the UK? This has nothing to do with Brexit. But you think you can make us sound barbaric and the other countries in the EU are saints. But even on this subject they are at least as bad as us. Many are a lot worse.

So you call me a moron for calling you out yet again. Well done.

 

[Astute]

You can't put tariffs on one WTO member without putting them on all of them, you are governed by your schedules (One for goods one for services).
So if we do it to the EU we do it to everyone. Seen as we actually need to import stuff it wouldn't be wise to introduce punitive tariffs which could affect us importing goods we need.

The article you've linked confirms what I'm saying as it states that the EU won't be able to treat us differently to other WTO members which is correct.

That's why the first thing we'll do if we leave with no deal is try and negotiate a free trade deal with the EU.

Negotiate with the EU? Where have you been the last couple of years?

 

[clint van damme]

Negotiate with the EU? Where have you been the last couple of years?

Following this process as closely as possible. You?

 

[Astute]

You should know, that occasionally experts' predictions don't pan out, so therefore we should ignore those who have the expertise and tools to make predictions, in favour of the ranty bloke down the pub.

It's the new way, sadly.

You are correct....although you meant it as a joke.

Those same people you refer to missed the last two recessions. They got it wrong on what would happen if we voted leave. They didn't even see the banking crash coming and they are supposed to be experts in the field. But we are still supposed to know that they are right.....