The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (136 Viewers)

[Grendel]

I’ve already established that, thank you.

What do you think will happen? As it stands, Parliament is set on blocking a no deal outcome and some sources reckon the May’s deal could lose by up to 80 votes in Parliament. Hence, May is desperately trying to gain support from Labour MPs at the eleventh hour.

Whether or not it’s right or wrong, a referendum looks v likely if May’s deal is rejected. In your view, what’s the alternative?

There are two clear alternatives

A different deal is presented 3 days later which includes an arrangement to remain in the customs union. This would get through parliament

A general election is called and the government manifesto supports the deal. This would make all prospective MPs stand for it and make labour commit to something.

 

---

[Alan Dugdales Moustache]

Funnily enough they didn’t. That’s why Fance and England declared war on Germany.

You've got a great sense of humour.

 

[Astute]

What does that mean exactly? Leaving without a deal or is that renegotiating May’s deal. You’ve not made that clear.

Either way, you’re not grasping the fact that MPs are voting against the Government’s deal and are voting to prevent a no-deal scenario. Again, the problem is how can the result of 2016 be honoured.

The answer is, as things stand, the result cannot be honoured because Parliament rejects both options on the table for leaving the EU. Hence, the need for another vote to break the deadlock.

Me not understand? Are you just having laugh?

You do know that the May so called deal isn't a deal don't you? And whichever way we go on leaving it is without a deal?

 

[Astute]

Usually, when there’s a deadlock between Government and Parliament, the electorate is consulted via an election or, later, referendums. That’s been the way of Parliament since the 18th century.

OMG.

You are either getting desperate on how to persuade people that another referendum is the only way forward or you actually don't have a clue what is going on.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

OMG.

You are either getting desperate on how to persuade people that another referendum is the only way forward or you actually don't have a clue what is going on.

I’m not trying to convince anyone of anything, most of us on here have already made up our minds one way or the other.

I’ve laid out what I think will happen, we’ll see what happens. If May’s deal gets rejected, we’re headed to ballot box at least once, if not twice (or even 3 times). The country finds itself in quite an unprecedented position.

 

[Grendel]

Ok. But, both options for Brexit are currently being blocked by Parliament, rightly or wrongly.

In this scenario, how can the result of 2016 be honoured? Answer that.

Well it can be honoured by giving the public the two leave options as the two questions

 

[martcov]

That sounds exciting and sensible doesn’t it?

Great idea. Better than building walls and trade barriers.

 

[martcov]

Leave without the backstop. The EU has already said hardly anything will change whilst negotiations happen to safeguard jobs in the EU. That is because many rely on us. Yet they are not supposed to care about trade because they don't need it with us.

If we leave with no deal there is no transition. What did the EU say about nothing changing whilst negotiations happen? They also said no trade negotiations without a withdrawal agreement.

 

[martcov]

There's more.

Colonial Blimp kicks in.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Well it can be honoured by giving the public the two leave options as the two questions

Considering a referendum bill would need to be passed, and parliament wouldn’t pass that bill, the suggestion is neither here nor there.

 

[martcov]

Well it can be honoured by giving the public the two leave options as the two questions

Oh great. Big disaster or small disaster? Do you seriously think the majority would be happy with that? A referendum without an option for half of the country? Whatever side won, it would be around 25% of the country making the decision. We have enough problems with a 52:48 result.

 

[Ian1779]

Either way, you’re not grasping the fact that MPs are voting against the Government’s deal and are voting to prevent a no-deal scenario. Again, the problem is how can the result of 2016 be honoured.

But the make up of those 2 groups on the separate points is not the same. The 'Hardline Brexiteers' that are voting down Theresa's deal are not then committing to stopping a no-deal.. that's exactly what they want.

Different groups with different motives, but is the overlap enough to get something else through parliament if other options are then presented?

 

[Grendel]

Considering a referendum bill would need to be passed, and parliament wouldn’t pass that bill, the suggestion is neither here nor there.

If the government offer this choice only or we fall out on March 29 are you sure?

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

If the government offer this choice only or we fall out on March 29 are you sure?

In this scenario, the Government at this point wouldn’t have support for its withdrawal deal so it’s inconceivable it would be tabled. Say it did, Parliament will make its own amendments changing the bill. An example amendment could be to make it a full referendum.

Parliament is in control here. The Government has lost the confidence of Parliament.

Especially when the option is there to extend the deadline and delay Brexit. I don’t think this will be settled by 29th March and Brexit will probably be delayed, which Labour have said they’ll back.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

There are two clear alternatives

A different deal is presented 3 days later which includes an arrangement to remain in the customs union. This would get through parliament

A general election is called and the government manifesto supports the deal. This would make all prospective MPs stand for it and make labour commit to something.

The Brexiteer MPs would mutiny over the proposal to remain in the customs union. Labour, similarly, wouldn’t lend its support to that bill. They want an election and politically, it’s toxic for them to support May’s deal, even with an amendment.

Right now, if a general election was called, the indication is that it’ll return a hung parliament. Polls have Labour up by 1%, but I doubt they’d win a majority. The Tories don’t look like winning a majority either. Right now, it looks like an election wouldn’t actually solve anything, even with a change of PM.

Stranger things have happened.

 

[Grendel]

The Brexiteer MPs would mutiny over the proposal to remain in the customs union. Labour, similarly, wouldn’t lend its support to that bill. They want an election and politically, it’s toxic for them to support May’s deal, even with an amendment.

Right now, if a general election was called, the indication is that it’ll return a hung parliament. Polls have Labour up by 1%, but I doubt they’d win a majority. The Tories don’t look like winning a majority either. Right now, it looks like an election wouldn’t actually solve anything, even with a change of PM.

Stranger things have happened.

Brexit Mp's would but there is a suggestion in the political classes some Labour Mp's would take it. They have made a lot of noise on their six basic tests but in reality this would be very close to what they want and there would be accusations of politics before the country

If this was suggested and Corbyn rejected it it would be difficult to define what Labour policy is on Europe

If an election was called all Tory candidates would have to stand on the manifesto. What would Labour do? They would have to define the policy. On Five Live today two labour MP's in leave constituencies were being slaughtered by the public for their stance on the issue and its very likely if they went on a second referendum policy they would lose seats.

I think the Tory party would get a small majority in this scenario and all MP's having stood on the policy would have to abide by it

 

[clint van damme]

I've taken Herman Goring off ignore . He hasn't been on here for at least an hour . Is he dead ?

why do you feel the need to tell us whether you are or aren't following Mart you attention seeking fud?

The Brexiteer MPs would mutiny over the proposal to remain in the customs union. Labour, similarly, wouldn’t lend its support to that bill. They want an election and politically, it’s toxic for them to support May’s deal, even with an amendment.

Right now, if a general election was called, the indication is that it’ll return a hung parliament. Polls have Labour up by 1%, but I doubt they’d win a majority. The Tories don’t look like winning a majority either. Right now, it looks like an election wouldn’t actually solve anything, even with a change of PM.

Stranger things have happened.

Corbyn has said before he would support May if she keeps us in the customs union. He said he would support her Chequers proposal if she amended it to keep us in the CU.
Might all be mind games and bluster but he has said it.

 

[Sick Boy]

I don't think anyone knows how to get out of this, as the 2 extremes are cancel Brexit or leave with no deal whatsoever, both which in their own ways will cause turmoil.

The EEA would be my way of compromising

 

[Sick Boy]

why do you feel the need to tell us whether you are or aren't following Mart you attention seeking fud?

Quite a few seem to do it while having a conversation with him, I blocked that fool who’d get tanked up and come on here to wind people up. Luckily I haven’t had to view his ramblings, so don’t see how everyone can speak to Mart while having him on ignore

 

[martcov]

Quite a few seem to do it while having a conversation with him, I blocked that fool who’d get tanked up and come on here to wind people up. Luckily I haven’t had to view his ramblings, so don’t see how everyone can speak to Mart while having him on ignore

The wanker is back. He couldn’t live without me. Grendel is arguing with me, Astute is flouncing back and forth, Dart is relatively quiet ( no Breitbart posts lately),Bazza was pleasant at Christmas ( got into a Wasps argument with others and made a pleasant comment to me ), but the resident drunk cannot stand not reading my posts and making dumb comments on them.

 

[Astute]

The wanker is back. He couldn’t live without me. Grendel is arguing with me, Astute is flouncing back and forth, Dart is relatively quiet ( no Breitbart posts lately),Bazza was pleasant at Christmas ( got into a Wasps argument with others and made a pleasant comment to me ), but the resident drunk cannot stand not reading my posts and making dumb comments on them.

Back and forth? Get real.

That is what impartiality is all about. Consider everything as it happens. Try and work out what is best for the future of the UK. There is good and bad with the EU. There is good and bad with leaving the EU. Politics in the UK? Struggling to think of anything good.

 

[Sick Boy]

Brexit Mp's would but there is a suggestion in the political classes some Labour Mp's would take it. They have made a lot of noise on their six basic tests but in reality this would be very close to what they want and there would be accusations of politics before the country

If this was suggested and Corbyn rejected it it would be difficult to define what Labour policy is on Europe

If an election was called all Tory candidates would have to stand on the manifesto. What would Labour do? They would have to define the policy. On Five Live today two labour MP's in leave constituencies were being slaughtered by the public for their stance on the issue and its very likely if they went on a second referendum policy they would lose seats.

I think the Tory party would get a small majority in this scenario and all MP's having stood on the policy would have to abide by it

Based on your previous GE predictions, this would probably mean a Labour landslide

 

[martcov]

Back and forth? Get real.

That is what impartiality is all about. Consider everything as it happens. Try and work out what is best for the future of the UK. There is good and bad with the EU. There is good and bad with leaving the EU. Politics in the UK? Struggling to think of anything good.

I was talking about your blockings, peeking, and unblockings followed by blocking and so on...

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Brexit Mp's would but there is a suggestion in the political classes some Labour Mp's would take it. They have made a lot of noise on their six basic tests but in reality this would be very close to what they want and there would be accusations of politics before the country

If this was suggested and Corbyn rejected it it would be difficult to define what Labour policy is on Europe

If an election was called all Tory candidates would have to stand on the manifesto. What would Labour do? They would have to define the policy. On Five Live today two labour MP's in leave constituencies were being slaughtered by the public for their stance on the issue and its very likely if they went on a second referendum policy they would lose seats.

I think the Tory party would get a small majority in this scenario and all MP's having stood on the policy would have to abide by it

Corbyn’s support for the Customs Union was in Feb 2018, and the political climate has changed drastically since. The Government has lost two parliamentary votes in 2 days and faces a third, fatal one next week. Labour have smelled blood and have said they will ‘immediately’ table a motion of no confidence against the government. If the Government loses, and May doesn’t resign, and it probably will lose this vote. The problem here is, how can the government negotiate a modified deal whilst it’s in this scenario? It couldn’t. Besides, Labour want an election which makes cooperation very unlikely because if a Brexit deal goes through Parliament, there’s no need for an election. The scenario you’ve laid out is a possibility rather than a probability and I think the die has been cast.

Labour won’t stand on an explicit manifesto pledging to hold a second referendum. Corbyn has actually been deathly quiet on this and his own party criticises him from this. It seems the Labour leadership want to go away and negotiate their own deal and try to get it through Parliament.

The reason Labour hasn’t had a coherent policy on Brexit. Firstly, it’s in opposition, it can afford to be slightly vague. Secondly, and most importantly, it has to appease its traditional working class vote that back Leave, as you shown and it’s metropolitian voters in Greater London and elsewhere. It’s members are also overwhelmingly pro-Remain. Barry Gardiner’s suggestion that Labour would have a referendum on the deal it negotiated is an interesting one, and may become policy. However, he made it clear that’s his own opinion. Labour’s policy will be deliberately as broad and as vague as can be so it doesn’t upset the delicate balence between its voters that Leave and Remain.

As for who would win in an election, it’s guesswork, no matter how educated the guess. Labour are ahead in the polls, but it’s anyone’s game, I do think Labour could win the ‘popular vote’ but the Tories remaining the largest party in Parliament. In 2017, the polls said the Tories should have extended their majority massively but lost it. My guess is that either Labour or Conservative could emerge as the larger party, but, I doubt either will win a parliamentary majority. Labour will have to perform very well in Scotland to stand a chance of winning a majority.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Analysing the political climate, Parliament has moved to increase Parliamentary powers against the Government to prevent the Government leaving without a deal on the 29th March. It’s also set to reject May’s deal, and the implications are pretty clear.

With the UK’s rich parliamentary history, we know what happens when the Government loses the confidence of Parliament. To clarify, that is when the Government is defeated on major legislation. Either May will resign herself, or the Government will face, and likely lose a vote of no confidence. Either or, the result is a general election because the Government’s position becomes untenable.

Frankly, Parliament and the electorate of 2016 are at odds, Brexit is actually at risk so a referendum is likely. As someone pointed out, 76% of MPs voted Remain and MPs are in charge of ratifying the Brexit deal. The Government cannot go above Parliaments head on this and any withdrawal bill needs to ratified by Parliament.

A general election won’t change the situation, so what’s necessary? A public vote breaking the deadlock.

Pretty accurate assessment Mucca. You’ve also hit the nail on the head in relation to the major issue....76% of MPs voting Remain, the rest probably want hard Brexit and therefore any compromise just can’t get through. I heard the EU might give further concession(s) if Mays deal lost by a small minority (under 50), unfortunately it is likely to be much bigger so no concessions as they won’t believe it will make a difference. Where that leaves us....in the shit. If a No Deal happens, which it could still do by accident, I will hold MPs on all sides of the argument responsible.

The MPs have let this country down. This is a mess totally of their making.

Ps maybe I’m being thick but what are the MPs who are voting against the withdrawal agreement proposing as a consensus / widely supported alternative ? Some say stay in a customs union but most of the public would suggest that retaining freedom of movement and being closely tied to EU laws (and ruling out separate non EU trade agreements) as a total betrayal of the referendum vote ? Also how is that any better than the withdrawal agreement ? For Leavers (MPs) staying in a customs union will be a worse deal than the withdrawal agreement. For Remainers (MPs) why would you risk a No Deal (which is probably supported by smallest minority in Parliament) when the Withdrawal Agreement pretty much gives you a customs union in the worst case scenario. Go figure ?!!

 

[clint van damme]

Corbyn’s support for the Customs Union was in Feb 2018, and the political climate has changed drastically since. The Government has lost two parliamentary votes in 2 days and faces a third, fatal one next week. Labour have smelled blood and have said they will ‘immediately’ table a motion of no confidence against the government. If the Government loses, and May doesn’t resign, and it probably will lose this vote. The problem here is, how can the government negotiate a modified deal whilst it’s in this scenario? It couldn’t. Besides, Labour want an election which makes cooperation very unlikely because if a Brexit deal goes through Parliament, there’s no need for an election. The scenario you’ve laid out is a possibility rather than a probability and I think the die has been cast.

Labour won’t stand on an explicit manifesto pledging to hold a second referendum. Corbyn has actually been deathly quiet on this and his own party criticises him from this. It seems the Labour leadership want to go away and negotiate their own deal and try to get it through Parliament.

The reason Labour hasn’t had a coherent policy on Brexit. Firstly, it’s in opposition, it can afford to be slightly vague. Secondly, and most importantly, it has to appease its traditional working class vote that back Leave, as you shown and it’s metropolitian voters in Greater London and elsewhere. It’s members are also overwhelmingly pro-Remain. Barry Gardiner’s suggestion that Labour would have a referendum on the deal it negotiated is an interesting one, and may become policy. However, he made it clear that’s his own opinion. Labour’s policy will be deliberately as broad and as vague as can be so it doesn’t upset the delicate balence between its voters that Leave and Remain.

As for who would win in an election, it’s guesswork, no matter how educated the guess. Labour are ahead in the polls, but it’s anyone’s game, I do think Labour could win the ‘popular vote’ but the Tories remaining the largest party in Parliament. In 2017, the polls said the Tories should have extended their majority massively but lost it. My guess is that either Labour or Conservative could emerge as the larger party, but, I doubt either will win a parliamentary majority. Labour will have to perform very well in Scotland to stand a chance of winning a majority.

Good post but just one point, Corbyn has offered support for the CU as recently as September.
You question whether he would still support it as he now seems to be pursuing a GE and I think that's a valid point.
I personally don't think it's a very wise tactic.

 

[Ian1779]

Corbyn’s support for the Customs Union was in Feb 2018, and the political climate has changed drastically since. The Government has lost two parliamentary votes in 2 days and faces a third, fatal one next week. Labour have smelled blood and have said they will ‘immediately’ table a motion of no confidence against the government. If the Government loses, and May doesn’t resign, and it probably will lose this vote. The problem here is, how can the government negotiate a modified deal whilst it’s in this scenario? It couldn’t. Besides, Labour want an election which makes cooperation very unlikely because if a Brexit deal goes through Parliament, there’s no need for an election. The scenario you’ve laid out is a possibility rather than a probability and I think the die has been cast.

Labour won’t stand on an explicit manifesto pledging to hold a second referendum. Corbyn has actually been deathly quiet on this and his own party criticises him from this. It seems the Labour leadership want to go away and negotiate their own deal and try to get it through Parliament.

The reason Labour hasn’t had a coherent policy on Brexit. Firstly, it’s in opposition, it can afford to be slightly vague. Secondly, and most importantly, it has to appease its traditional working class vote that back Leave, as you shown and it’s metropolitian voters in Greater London and elsewhere. It’s members are also overwhelmingly pro-Remain. Barry Gardiner’s suggestion that Labour would have a referendum on the deal it negotiated is an interesting one, and may become policy. However, he made it clear that’s his own opinion. Labour’s policy will be deliberately as broad and as vague as can be so it doesn’t upset the delicate balence between its voters that Leave and Remain.

As for who would win in an election, it’s guesswork, no matter how educated the guess. Labour are ahead in the polls, but it’s anyone’s game, I do think Labour could win the ‘popular vote’ but the Tories remaining the largest party in Parliament. In 2017, the polls said the Tories should have extended their majority massively but lost it. My guess is that either Labour or Conservative could emerge as the larger party, but, I doubt either will win a parliamentary majority. Labour will have to perform very well in Scotland to stand a chance of winning a majority.

To be honest if I was given the choice of Labour implementing their manifesto but having to leave the EU, or staying in the EU but it not being able to implemented. I would probably choose the first option. But can they get the remainers to move to this point?

Or do they try and convince the working class leave vote that their woes can be remedied inside the EU with the implementation of their manifesto that will reinvigorate their local communities and massively improve their life chances?

This is the real issue Labour face IMO.

 

[Sick Boy]

Good post but just one point, Corbyn has offered support for the CU as recently as September.
You question whether he would still support it as he now seems to be pursuing a GE and I think that's a valid point.
I personally don't think it's a very wise tactic.

I’m sure he has mentioned negotiating a new customs union?

 

[CCFCSteve]

I’m sure he has mentioned negotiating a new customs union?

Yes, a magical one where we can control freedom of movement and agree trade deals with other countries !

I can assure everyone that however bad May has done, there is no chance Corbyn will negotiate anything better with the EU and/or get it through Parliament. They have the same issues/splits as the Tories, hence him desperately pushing for a GE rather than second ref. As Mucca says, how the fuck is another GE, likely followed by another hung parliament going to help with the same halfwits squabbling over their same entrenched views ?!! He’s politicised the issue without ever offering a coherent alternative....instead just shouting General Election. They’re as much a disgrace as the Tories !

 

[Sick Boy]

To be honest if I was given the choice of Labour implementing their manifesto but having to leave the EU, or staying in the EU but it not being able to implemented. I would probably choose the first option. But can they get the remainers to move to this point?

Or do they try and convince the working class leave vote that their woes can be remedied inside the EU with the implementation of their manifesto that will reinvigorate their local communities and massively improve their life chances?

This is the real issue Labour face IMO.

Both sides, Remain and Leave, are a mixture of Labour and Conservative voters, making it very difficult to resolve

 

[Ian1779]

Both sides, Remain and Leave, are a mixture of Labour and Conservative voters, making it very difficult to resolve

Agreed, but the demographic impacts more severely on Labour, especially from a geographical context.

 

[Alan Dugdales Moustache]

why do you feel the need to tell us whether you are or aren't following Mart you attention seeking fud?
.

You've just answered it there and then .
I'm here purely to take the piss out of those of you who take this whole Brexit thing far, far too seriously. You need to lighten up Mr Fud, whatever that means .

 

[Alan Dugdales Moustache]

The wanker is back. He couldn’t live without me. Grendel is arguing with me, Astute is flouncing back and forth, Dart is relatively quiet ( no Breitbart posts lately),Bazza was pleasant at Christmas ( got into a Wasps argument with others and made a pleasant comment to me ), but the resident drunk cannot stand not reading my posts and making dumb comments on them.

Yes, you're the centre of attention . You must be very happy. Well done.

 

[clint van damme]

You've just answered it there and then you thick tosser !

Looks like Alans carer has just brought him back from the pub and Alan's persuaded him to let him on the laptop for half an hour.

 

[Alan Dugdales Moustache]

Looks like Alans carer has just brought him back from the pub and Alan's persuaded him to let him on the laptop for half an hour.

You're absolutely spot on there . I actually slipped him a few free tinnies and I've got two hours tops. Are we out yet ?