The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (136 Viewers)

[Sick Boy]

Yes, a magical one where we can control freedom of movement and agree trade deals with other countries !

I can assure everyone that however bad May has done, there is no chance Corbyn will negotiate anything better with the EU and/or get it through Parliament. They have the same issues/splits as the Tories, hence him desperately pushing for a GE rather than second ref. As Mucca says, how the fuck is another GE, likely followed by another hung parliament going to help with the same halfwits squabbling over their same entrenched views ?!! He’s politicised the issue without ever offering a coherent alternative....instead just shouting General Election. They’re as much a disgrace as the Tories !

Can’t disagree with that, his claims that Labour would renegotiate this and that and gain all of these concessions is pie in the sky stuff

 

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[Mucca Mad Boys]

Good post but just one point, Corbyn has offered support for the CU as recently as September.
You question whether he would still support it as he now seems to be pursuing a GE and I think that's a valid point.
I personally don't think it's a very wise tactic.

I didn’t realise he had, but with all that’s gone since, the political context has changed and Labour don’t seem to be in any mood to bail the Government out, and why would they?

It’s difficult to say if a general election is a good idea or not because our parliamentary can produce pretty lopsided results. The polls are split, some having Conservative up by 4%, others having them down by 3% and a good 2-3 pollsters have them on equal %. If anyone claims they know what will happen, they’re talking nonsense because anyone’s guess is as good as the other. But, as far as I can see, Labour don’t really stand to lose anything by forcing a GE because I can’t see them losing seats. The question becomes, can they win enough seats to form a government. As a Labour voter and member, my gut feeling is no unless they win more Scottish seats and build on some of their impressive gains in England.

Voters are fed up because they want Government to get on with governing. But, the situation in Parliament is deadlock, and an election probably won’t solve that. We’re at real risk of voter fatigue in this country because this will have been the 3rd election in 4 years, and a referendum and potentially another.

 

[CCFCSteve]

This isn’t about ‘bailing the government out’ or ‘having nothing to lose’ for calling a general election. This should be about finding a solution on brexit that is best for the country.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

This isn’t about ‘bailing the government out’ or ‘having nothing to lose’ for calling a general election. This should be about finding a solution on brexit that is best for the country.

I agree with the sentiment, but the Government can’t go on and find a solution if it can’t lass key legislation and has potentially lost a vote of no confidence.

It’s also about holding the Government to account, which I believe Parliament is doing a good job of, in my view.

 

[Astute]

I agree with the sentiment, but the Government can’t go on and find a solution if it can’t lass key legislation and has potentially lost a vote of no confidence.

It’s also about holding the Government to account, which I believe Parliament is doing a good job of, in my view.

Not as simple as you say.

Many Tory MP's would fall into line on a vote of no confidence on May. So would their Irish sidekicks. They have already stated so. Just the same with a vote of no confidence in the Tories. This is different to being remain or leave. If anything it could push us towards a no deal Brexit.

You can talk about what you want to happen or what you think will happen. But if anyone is being truthful they will admit that they haven't got a clue which way this will go. I still expect us to be in the EU in some way after Brexit is finished. The big question is how much and what it means.

The EU wants and needs us to stay in. About 50% of our population wants us to stay in. Most MP's want us to stay in. May is a remainer. Hardly anyone wants us to leave without a deal.

It is going to get very interesting soon.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Agreed, but the demographic impacts more severely on Labour, especially from a geographical context.

Yes, absolutely.

Labour has to tread the line very carefully because it can’t afford to alienate either its cosmopolitan, Remain-supporting support nor its traditional working-class heartlands that voted Leave.

Corbyn started his campaign trail today by arguing the system is failing ordinary people whether they voted Remain, like in Tottenham, or Leave, like in Mansfield (examples he used). He’s not going to fight this election on the issue of his position on Brexit.

Not as simple as you say.

Many Tory MP's would fall into line on a vote of no confidence on May. So would their Irish sidekicks. They have already stated so. Just the same with a vote of no confidence in the Tories. This is different to being remain or leave. If anything it could push us towards a no deal Brexit.

You can talk about what you want to happen or what you think will happen. But if anyone is being truthful they will admit that they haven't got a clue which way this will go. I still expect us to be in the EU in some way after Brexit is finished. The big question is how much and what it means.

The EU wants and needs us to stay in. About 50% of our population wants us to stay in. Most MP's want us to stay in. May is a remainer. Hardly anyone wants us to leave without a deal.

It is going to get very interesting soon.

I don’t think they will. Cabinet ministers have publically said they will resign and back a Labour motion of no confidence to prevent a no-deal Brexit. The last time a government lost a finance bill was in 1978, that government also lost a vote of confidence a year later. Frankly, if May’s deal gets defeated, she’ll resign or the Government will most likely lose a vote of no confidence. Either way, the government will have lost the confidence of Parliament and that can’t be brushed under the carpet as if it’s nothing.

 

[Astute]

Yes, absolutely.

Labour has to tread the line very carefully because it can’t afford to alienate either its cosmopolitan, Remain-supporting support nor its traditional working-class heartlands that voted Leave.

Corbyn started his campaign trail today by arguing the system is failing ordinary people whether they voted Remain, like in Tottenham, or Leave, like in Mansfield (examples he used). He’s not going to fight this election on the issue of his position on Brexit.



I don’t think they will. Cabinet ministers have publically said they will resign and back a Labour motion of no confidence to prevent a no-deal Brexit. The last time a government lost a finance bill was in 1978, that government also lost a vote of confidence a year later. Frankly, if May’s deal gets defeated, she’ll resign or the Government will most likely lose a vote of no confidence. Either way, the government will have lost the confidence of Parliament and that can’t be brushed under the carpet as if it’s nothing.

Most Tories will back the Tory party. Some won't. But how about those Labour who want it to carry on?

Like I said it isn't easy to predict. People are split everywhere.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Most Tories will back the Tory party. Some won't. But how about those Labour who want it to carry on?

Like I said it isn't easy to predict. People are split everywhere.

Most Tories will back the Government, and just about every Labour MP (only 10 Lab MPs are doubtful) will back a vote of no confidence, that’s a given. But, there doesn’t need to be a majority of Tory MPs to back the motion for it to win. Only a small group, about 20 MPs are needed for victory in Parliament — that’s less than 10% of Tory MPs.

 

[Astute]

Most Tories will back the Government, and just about every Labour MP (only 10 Lab MPs are doubtful) will back a vote of no confidence, that’s a given. But, there doesn’t need to be a majority of Tory MPs to back the motion for it to win. Only a small group, about 20 MPs are needed for victory in Parliament — that’s less than 10% of Tory MPs.

Correct. But we still don't know which way it will go.

But there is one surprise that could change things. Germany is now in recession. Things could change between us and the EU. They need us more than most think. They are the 4th biggest economy. We are the 5th. No trade deal would make their situation much worse. Mart will disagree though.

Germany, the 4th-largest economy, probably just went into an unexpected recession

It's not Brexit Britain most likely to have a recession. It's Germany

'There is something brewing' in Germany: Fears of recession after latest industrial data

Bad news for Germany. Bad news for the EU. Bad news for us. But could be good news all round if it brings them round a table for proper negotiations.

 

[martcov]

Correct. But we still don't know which way it will go.

But there is one surprise that could change things. Germany is now in recession. Things could change between us and the EU. They need us more than most think. They are the 4th biggest economy. We are the 5th. No trade deal would make their situation much worse. Mart will disagree though.

Germany, the 4th-largest economy, probably just went into an unexpected recession

It's not Brexit Britain most likely to have a recession. It's Germany

'There is something brewing' in Germany: Fears of recession after latest industrial data

Bad news for Germany. Bad news for the EU. Bad news for us. But could be good news all round if it brings them round a table for proper negotiations.

The world is heading for recession. That includes the UK which has the added disadvantage of Brexit. No good news anywhere. Merely because Germany is revising their figures and outlook downwards doesn’t mean the EU are going to come with the begging bowl. Germany has the most people working and lowest unemployment since the Wiedervereinigung. Any downturn is not yet through to the labour market.

 

[martcov]

Yes, you're the centre of attention . You must be very happy. Well done.

The centre of your brainless attention. Not happy at that. I am certainly not the centre of everyone else‘s attention despite you continually mentioning me.

 

[martcov]

You've just answered it there and then .
I'm here purely to take the piss out of those of you who take this whole Brexit thing far, far too seriously. You need to lighten up Mr Fud, whatever that means .

No, you’re on here purely to act like a twat, usually after a visit to the pub. You are doing it very well to be fair.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

The best way of unifying the UK wouldn't be by ignoring what 52% voted for.

You say about the change of policy. I don'tthink that part is over yet. Bercow has overstepped the mark yet again. He is supposed to be unbiased. But his wife has a defamatory sticker I'm the window of her car about Brexit. He has been on a charge for bullying. And now he has gone against rules.

Which way would I vote? Very good question. Remain is my preference. But I am against another referendum. But I can't see it happening. Because it shouldn't happen.

Another connundrum!? So he is an alleged bully...but stands up to defend parliamentary rights?

As for his wife's sticker...are you suggesting he should bully her to remove it? Or cover it if he uses her car?

His actions have not really been biased imo, just some sensitive souls leap to accuse in...yes.. a sort of subtle/back-handed bullying to get their own way.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Correct. But we still don't know which way it will go.

But there is one surprise that could change things. Germany is now in recession. Things could change between us and the EU. They need us more than most think. They are the 4th biggest economy. We are the 5th. No trade deal would make their situation much worse. Mart will disagree though.

Germany, the 4th-largest economy, probably just went into an unexpected recession

It's not Brexit Britain most likely to have a recession. It's Germany

'There is something brewing' in Germany: Fears of recession after latest industrial data

Bad news for Germany. Bad news for the EU. Bad news for us. But could be good news all round if it brings them round a table for proper negotiations.

What makes you think there hasn’t been proper negotiation?

 

[Nick]

There are some real mentalists when you look at how involved some are getting. No idea what people will do when it has happened one way or another.

People making up stories to blame Brexit is quite funny though. Especially when they make up shit about their 4 year old saying things about Brexit. OK then.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Correct. But we still don't know which way it will go.

But there is one surprise that could change things. Germany is now in recession. Things could change between us and the EU. They need us more than most think. They are the 4th biggest economy. We are the 5th. No trade deal would make their situation much worse. Mart will disagree though.

Germany, the 4th-largest economy, probably just went into an unexpected recession

It's not Brexit Britain most likely to have a recession. It's Germany

'There is something brewing' in Germany: Fears of recession after latest industrial data

Bad news for Germany. Bad news for the EU. Bad news for us. But could be good news all round if it brings them round a table for proper negotiations.

You say ‘we don’t know what will happen’ as if the signs aren’t already there. The Government has been defeated 7 times in Parliament in under 18 months. This is pretty unheard of in UK politics. To put into perspective, Cameron was defeated 9 times in 6 years. Most significantly, a defeat on a finance bill, but a Government hasn’t lost since 1978 and Callaghan lost a no confidence about a year later. Next week, it faces a devastating defeat of up to 80 votes on its Brexit deal. The Government’s position will become untenable.

Theresa May has presented this upcoming vote as ‘My Deal’ or ‘no-deal’ essentially. May has also ruled out a second referendum. She’s backed herself into a corner here and there are Tory MPs, even some cabinet ministers, who support Remain who will break ranks to prevent a no-deal Brexit. 20 Tory MPs voted against the Government this week, and more would probably follow if the May’s deal gets rejected.

This is the most likely outcome.

 

[Grendel]

You say ‘we don’t know what will happen’ as if the signs aren’t already there. The Government has been defeated 7 times in Parliament in under 18 months. This is pretty unheard of in UK politics. To put into perspective, Cameron was defeated 9 times in 6 years. Most significantly, a defeat on a finance bill, but a Government hasn’t lost since 1978 and Callaghan lost a no confidence about a year later. Next week, it faces a devastating defeat of up to 80 votes on its Brexit deal. The Government’s position will become untenable.

Theresa May has presented this upcoming vote as ‘My Deal’ or ‘no-deal’ essentially. May has also ruled out a second referendum. She’s backed herself into a corner here and there are Tory MPs, even some cabinet ministers, who support Remain who will break ranks to prevent a no-deal Brexit. 20 Tory MPs voted against the Government this week, and more would probably follow if the May’s deal gets rejected.

This is the most likely outcome.

The most likely outcome is the government will not lose the no confidence vote

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

The most likely outcome is the government will not lose the no confidence vote

Today, BBC analysis reckons May’s withdrawal is going to be beaten by 228 votes in Parliament. If that doesn’t make May resign, it will trigger a motion of no confidence and we’ll see who is right. I suspect you’ll be disappointed.

 

[Grendel]

Today, BBC analysis reckons May’s withdrawal is going to be beaten by 228 votes in Parliament. If that doesn’t make May resign, it will trigger a motion of no confidence and we’ll see who is right. I suspect you’ll be disappointed.

You mentioned the Labour Party in 1979.

The Labour Party was very much a minority government and was deeply unpopular - it was propped up by a variety of tiny parties at the time after liberals defected

Even then they lost by 1 vote and all labour members voted for the government - in fact they would have survived but for a labour absentee

If the DUP are good their word they will support the government

Any conservative voting against the government will be doomed as a politician

 

[Astute]

Another connundrum!? So he is an alleged bully...but stands up to defend parliamentary rights?

As for his wife's sticker...are you suggesting he should bully her to remove it? Or cover it if he uses her car?

His actions have not really been biased imo, just some sensitive souls leap to accuse in...yes.. a sort of subtle/back-handed bullying to get their own way.

Sent from my SM-G935F using Tapatalk

I suggest looking at evidence before making decisions. Something not dine enough on this thread.

John Bercow faces backlash over 'b------- to Brexit' car sticker

John Bercow: further bullying claims emerge against Speaker

First two links explained what has happened. Plenty more where they came from.

This is what he is supposed to do.

The Speaker

Is everyone happy with the situation?

 

[Grendel]

In fact Mr Corbyn has contradicted Barry Gardiner and no says there may not be a no confidence vote after the Brexit vote at all

 

[Astute]

Today, BBC analysis reckons May’s withdrawal is going to be beaten by 228 votes in Parliament. If that doesn’t make May resign, it will trigger a motion of no confidence and we’ll see who is right. I suspect you’ll be disappointed.

I am just considering the truth. Not a result that would leave me disappointed. But it would leave you severely disappointed. Your posts leave no doubt with this.

The Tory MP's would have to agree with no confidence in themselves. They would be voting against themself. The DUP have already said they would vote on the side of the Tories. This is a different matter to the Brexit crap.

Yet you seem to think differently.

 

[skybluetony176]

The Government has been defeated 7 times in Parliament in under 18 months. This is pretty unheard of in UK politics.

You have to add to that they were first defeated in court with the Gina Miller JR which I would think ultimately led to them defeats in Parliament as the JR insured that Parliament was sovereign with Brexit.

The boss of a hedge fund (an industry as we all know too well on this site was spewed out of Satan’s arsehole) had to ensure that Parliament retained the sovereignty that we had to vote leave to apparently keep. Unbelievable.

 

[Astute]

What makes you think there hasn’t been proper negotiation?

There hasn't been any negotiations yet. They don't start until after we have left the EU. That is the rule the EU made. Sorting out Ireland and how much we pay came before the rights of people that have moved to another country in the EU both ways and talks on a trade deal.

Or do you know something that I don't?

 

[SIR ERNIE]

You say ‘we don’t know what will happen’ as if the signs aren’t already there. The Government has been defeated 7 times in Parliament in under 18 months. This is pretty unheard of in UK politics. To put into perspective, Cameron was defeated 9 times in 6 years. Most significantly, a defeat on a finance bill, but a Government hasn’t lost since 1978 and Callaghan lost a no confidence about a year later. Next week, it faces a devastating defeat of up to 80 votes on its Brexit deal. The Government’s position will become untenable.

Theresa May has presented this upcoming vote as ‘My Deal’ or ‘no-deal’ essentially. May has also ruled out a second referendum. She’s backed herself into a corner here and there are Tory MPs, even some cabinet ministers, who support Remain who will break ranks to prevent a no-deal Brexit. 20 Tory MPs voted against the Government this week, and more would probably follow if the May’s deal gets rejected.

This is the most likely outcome.

May’s position as PM is most vulnerable if her vote passes, not if it fails.

If it passes she will lose the support of the DUP.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

I am just considering the truth. Not a result that would leave me disappointed. But it would leave you severely disappointed. Your posts leave no doubt with this.

The Tory MP's would have to agree with no confidence in themselves. They would be voting against themself. The DUP have already said they would vote on the side of the Tories. This is a different matter to the Brexit crap.

Yet you seem to think differently.

How can you spew on about ‘the truth’ when you say you don’t know what will happen. I’ve attempted to make sense of the situation on how things will proceed. I have said if May loses this Brexit deal vote, she will resign or she’ll lose a vote of no confidence.

Only a small minority of Tory MPs need to break ranks for a motion of no confidence to go against the Government. The indication is that there is a significant block of Tories willing to do exactly that.

Either way, I’ve stated the Government’s position is going to become untenable and we, the electorate are heading back to the polls, at least once this year.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

You mentioned the Labour Party in 1979.

The Labour Party was very much a minority government and was deeply unpopular - it was propped up by a variety of tiny parties at the time after liberals defected

Even then they lost by 1 vote and all labour members voted for the government - in fact they would have survived but for a labour absentee

If the DUP are good their word they will support the government

Any conservative voting against the government will be doomed as a politician

Very different contexts.

There are senior Tories, even in cabinet who have said they will resign and vote and against the Government. There’s a significant chunk of Remainer Tories who don’t want to leave at all and will vote to prevent a no-deal scenario. 20 MPs have already broke ranks in recent days despite knowing the implications of doing so.

The Government is heading for a crushing defeat on its Brexit deal, if the BBC is correct and the losing margin is 228, the Government’s position becomes untenable, regardless of what happens next. If May isn’t convinced to resign, Tory MPs will break ranks. If May goes, we’re heading back to the polls because a new PM has no mandate to deliver Brexit or to renegotiate with the EU.

 

[Astute]

How can you spew on about ‘the truth’ when you say you don’t know what will happen. I’ve attempted to make sense of the situation on how things will proceed. I have said if May loses this Brexit deal vote, she will resign or she’ll lose a vote of no confidence.

Only a small minority of Tory MPs need to break ranks for a motion of no confidence to go against the Government. The indication is that there is a significant block of Tories willing to do exactly that.

Either way, I’ve stated the Government’s position is going to become untenable and we, the electorate are heading back to the polls, at least once this year.

Correct. I don't know what will happen. Just the same as you don't know what will happen. You 'spew' on about another referendum and whatever the subject goes onto it will be what causes another referendum. You even tried to say that the best chance of unity in the UK was to have another referendum. It made me laugh and it still makes me smile.

When I make a comment I back it up with evidence or sound reasoning. When you make a comment it is because you want another referendum.

 

[Astute]

Very different contexts.

There are senior Tories, even in cabinet who have said they will resign and vote and against the Government. There’s a significant chunk of Remainer Tories who don’t want to leave at all and will vote to prevent a no-deal scenario. 20 MPs have already broke ranks in recent days despite knowing the implications of doing so.

The Government is heading for a crushing defeat on its Brexit deal, if the BBC is correct and the losing margin is 228, the Government’s position becomes untenable, regardless of what happens next. If May isn’t convinced to resign, Tory MPs will break ranks. If May goes, we’re heading back to the polls because a new PM has no mandate to deliver Brexit or to renegotiate with the EU.

If.....If......If.. ..If......

I thought you knew what was going to happen.

 

[Astute]

May’s position as PM is most vulnerable if her vote passes, not if it fails.

If it passes she will lose the support of the DUP.

He has had it explained several times. If it doesn't have a referendum at the end of it he isn't interested.

 

[Grendel]

Very different contexts.

There are senior Tories, even in cabinet who have said they will resign and vote and against the Government. There’s a significant chunk of Remainer Tories who don’t want to leave at all and will vote to prevent a no-deal scenario. 20 MPs have already broke ranks in recent days despite knowing the implications of doing so.

The Government is heading for a crushing defeat on its Brexit deal, if the BBC is correct and the losing margin is 228, the Government’s position becomes untenable, regardless of what happens next. If May isn’t convinced to resign, Tory MPs will break ranks. If May goes, we’re heading back to the polls because a new PM has no mandate to deliver Brexit or to renegotiate with the EU.

Which MP's have publically stated they would support Jeremy Corbyn in a no confidence vote?

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Which MP's have publically stated they would support Jeremy Corbyn in a no confidence vote?

Nick Boles (apologies, he’s ex-cabinet, not current) and Anna Soubry, the latter reckons she leads a bunch of One Nation Tories who will vote against the government in order to prevent a no-deal scenario. Several ministers like Richard Harrington are threatening to quit government to prevent a no deal Brexit.

Since May has made it clear that its her deal, or potentially no deal, this commons defeat probably brings her down one way, or the other. Tory MPs will probably try to force May out and if she refuses, I can see the backbenchers revolting.

Personally, I’m edging toward her resigning if the deal gets defeated heavily in Parliament — especially if the BBC’s analysis is even close to being accurate.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

There hasn't been any negotiations yet. They don't start until after we have left the EU. That is the rule the EU made. Sorting out Ireland and how much we pay came before the rights of people that have moved to another country in the EU both ways and talks on a trade deal.

Or do you know something that I don't?

That’s how I understand the current withdrawal bill too. This makes it possible to begin negotiations on a future deal

 

[Grendel]

Nick Boles (apologies, he’s ex-cabinet, not current) and Anna Soubry, the latter reckons she leads a bunch of One Nation Tories who will vote against the government in order to prevent a no-deal scenario. Several ministers like Richard Harrington are threatening to quit government to prevent a no deal Brexit.

Since May has made it clear that its her deal, or potentially no deal, this commons defeat probably brings her down one way, or the other. Tory MPs will probably try to force May out and if she refuses, I can see the backbenchers revolting.

Personally, I’m edging toward her resigning if the deal gets defeated heavily in Parliament — especially if the BBC’s analysis is even close to being accurate.

Soubry has said she’d vote against the government in s no confidence vote? Really?

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Soubry has said she’d vote against the government in s no confidence vote? Really?

Yes, the prospect of leaving without a deal is pushing some Tory MPs to vote against the Government. These are senior Tories as well and could be joined by more MPs, the likes of Michael Fallon, Justine Greening (suggests a second referendum using STV), Ken Clarke (recently proposed to delay Brexit) and Dominic Grieve (Grieve Amendment is giving Parliament more power) who have recently voted against the Government.

Rees-Mogg has said he will 'always vote with the Conservatives', and he reckons pro-EU MPs pose the biggest threat to May.

Interesting times ahead indeed.

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