The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (116 Viewers)

[Astute]

Some polls are saying very different things with a few polls having Labour ahead by 1-2%, others having them neck and neck with YouGov having the Tories up by 4%. There's some analysis that suggests Labour would gain around 23 seats from the Conservatives but lose 4 to the SNP in Scotland and the Lib Dems would gain 4 from the Tories - leaving the Tories on about 290 seats and Labour on 280-odd seats. These aren't ironclad by any means since the UK system usually isn't so indecisive and manifestos haven't been published nor campaigning started, but it's an interesting insight.

Theresa May will call an election if she thinks the Tories can regain their majority.

No way will May call an election unless she is left with no choice. She has a few years left as PM if needed and won't be PM after Brexit is sorted one way or another. Then it will be down to the next Tory leader to take them to the next GE.

 

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[Captain Dart]

Not unless you want to find a bag of coke and a tied up rent boy in the boot.

There is no evidence Mr Vaz ever tied anyone up.

 

[Astute]

It very much is down to what you perceive as leadership. Some people see leadership as fist shaking, soundbites and fancy suits. Some people see leadership as having a vision of how you will make the country a better place.

Take the election, Labour's manifesto was on how to improve the country, make it fairer. The Tory one had nothing, and their campaign was solely 'don't pick them you'll get chaos'

I know which one I see as real leadership.

Some vote for policies. Some vote for the one they see as the best leader. To me the leader of Labour let's them down.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

No way will May call an election unless she is left with no choice. She has a few years left as PM if needed and won't be PM after Brexit is sorted one way or another. Then it will be down to the next Tory leader to take them to the next GE.

Funnily enough, that is the strategy of the Labour to force an election...

 

[Nick]

This country could be choosing between ice cream and a punch in the face and the polls would still be
40% - Ice Cream
40% - Punch in the face
11% - Don't know
9% - Lib Dem

What flavour Ice Cream?

 

[Astute]

Serious question.

Do we think there will be "Brexit" and "Remain" firms that will meet up for scraps?

On another note, Corbyn seems like a sly bastard to me. All MPs are but something about him. The sort who would come to save you after being mugged but take your wallet and keys.

To me he is trying to stay in the background and not say anything to upset any voters. But this is the time he should be ripping May to bits. He should be telling her what she should be doing. That is what a strong leader would do.

 

[King of the Lesbians]

Not unless you want to find a bag of coke and a tied up rent boy in the boot.

Is the car still for sale? Asking for a friend...

 

[Astute]

This country could be choosing between ice cream and a punch in the face and the polls would still be
40% - Ice Cream
40% - Punch in the face
11% - Don't know
9% - Lib Dem

Think you have overestimated the Lib Dem vote.

 

[Astute]

Funnily enough, that is the strategy of the Labour to force an election...

And it will fail. He is trying to get turkeys to vote for Christmas.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

And it will fail. He is trying to get turkeys to vote for Christmas.

Not necessarily, the legal default at this moment is a no deal Brexit and with no Parliamentary majority for an alternative, it could push Tory MPs to do the unthinkable. Parliament is completely paralysed and something needs to budge.

 

[Otis]

What flavour Ice Cream?

Chocolate and cream surprise.

 

[Grendel]

Not necessarily, the legal default at this moment is a no deal Brexit and with no Parliamentary majority for an alternative, it could push Tory MPs to do the unthinkable. Parliament is completely paralysed and something needs to budge.

Give it up - neither thing will happen

 

[CCFCSteve]

Not necessarily, the legal default at this moment is a no deal Brexit and with no Parliamentary majority for an alternative, it could push Tory MPs to do the unthinkable. Parliament is completely paralysed and something needs to budge.

Mucca - I refer you to my earlier email. This isn't "the Tories MPs" doing the unthinkable....its parliament

"Haha, not well ! however, its exactly the point though Tony. The withdrawal agreement, for all its faults, would have ensured No Deal didn't happen. The next stage of the discussions (as Ive said before) would have involved a trade agreement, which considering the backstop issues may have ended with some type of permanent customs union....so basically the giving the opposition parties the two things they are now all pushing for ! (taking no deal off the table and a potential CU)

So basically Corbyn and Labour could have taken No Deal off the table earlier in the week by voting in favour with, for example, a proposed amendment for the government to prioritise a CU arrangement ahead of entering the backstop. It would have weakened our negotiating position, which I wouldn't have liked, and may not have been voted through, but would have at least been a sensible proposal by the opposition.

To busy trying to force a GE though !"

 

[clint van damme]

To me he is trying to stay in the background and not say anything to upset any voters. But this is the time he should be ripping May to bits. He should be telling her what she should be doing. That is what a strong leader would do.

he instigated the first ever vote of no confidence in a sitting government, I would say that's pretty damning of the government.
He has told May in no uncertain terms he wants no deal off the table before he will talk to her, that is strong leadership by your definition.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Mucca - I refer you to my earlier email. This isn't "the Tories MPs" doing the unthinkable....its parliament

"Haha, not well ! however, its exactly the point though Tony. The withdrawal agreement, for all its faults, would have ensured No Deal didn't happen. The next stage of the discussions (as Ive said before) would have involved a trade agreement, which considering the backstop issues may have ended with some type of permanent customs union....so basically the giving the opposition parties the two things they are now all pushing for ! (taking no deal off the table and a potential CU)

So basically Corbyn and Labour could have taken No Deal off the table earlier in the week by voting in favour with, for example, a proposed amendment for the government to prioritise a CU arrangement ahead of entering the backstop. It would have weakened our negotiating position, which I wouldn't have liked, and may not have been voted through, but would have at least been a sensible proposal by the opposition.

To busy trying to force a GE though !"

Let's not forget the 118 rebels from the Conservative party and the 10 DUP MPs who voted against the deal. The deal isn't an acceptable one to Parliament and that's why there was opposition across the political spectrum. The amendments were moved (1 Tory, PC and SNP as well as the Labour one) so there could be a clean vote on May's deal. Why? This is because of an amendment to the deal would have to be agreed by the EU and the deal renegotiated, which would have to come back to a Parliament for another vote anyway.

The Government presented its deal or no deal to play politics with Brexit, that's undeniable. Since Labour want an election, they probably won't cooperate until there is absolutely zero chance of another GE being called. All sides are playing politics over Brexit and any attempt to slander the other for being 'self-interested' is disingenuous.

Yes, Labour is playing politics to get the election it wants. Yes, the Government is playing politics to get its deal through. Yes, the SNP, LD, PC and Greens are all playing politics to get a second referendum. No one is above self-interest.

 

[Sick Boy]

It wouldn't take a decade to leave if we wanted it that badly. And for starters we would need those running the country to want to leave.

Project fear from both sides? Would you like to point out where I have said something different? I am not the one who is so biased that I don't care what rubbish I come out with.

The problem is that if I say something you agree with or looks good for remain you never make a comment. As soon as I say something that doesn't look good for remain in any way you are straight on it. The only thing that would make you slightly happier is if every time I said something that doesn't look good for remain I also say something that doesn't look good for leave in the same sentence. Just like where you have commented here.

You should offer your expertise then.

I didn’t say you had said something different.

It’s weird you never pull up any leavers comments, instead you seem to spend your time liking their posts - haha

 

[Astute]

Not necessarily, the legal default at this moment is a no deal Brexit and with no Parliamentary majority for an alternative, it could push Tory MPs to do the unthinkable. Parliament is completely paralysed and something needs to budge.

Over 100 Tory MP's have already voted against it. That is a massive swing needed. It isn't going to happen.

 

[Astute]

he instigated the first ever vote of no confidence in a sitting government, I would say that's pretty damning of the government.
He has told May in no uncertain terms he wants no deal off the table before he will talk to her, that is strong leadership by your definition.

He seems to want to become PM more than anything. And it was obvious that the vote of no confidence on the Tory government was going to fail. He would have known that.

 

[Astute]

Let's not forget the 118 rebels from the Conservative party and the 10 DUP MPs who voted against the deal. The deal isn't an acceptable one to Parliament and that's why there was opposition across the political spectrum. The amendments were moved (1 Tory, PC and SNP as well as the Labour one) so there could be a clean vote on May's deal. Why? This is because of an amendment to the deal would have to be agreed by the EU and the deal renegotiated, which would have to come back to a Parliament for another vote anyway.

The Government presented its deal or no deal to play politics with Brexit, that's undeniable. Since Labour want an election, they probably won't cooperate until there is absolutely zero chance of another GE being called. All sides are playing politics over Brexit and any attempt to slander the other for being 'self-interested' is disingenuous.

Yes, Labour is playing politics to get the election it wants. Yes, the Government is playing politics to get its deal through. Yes, the SNP, LD, PC and Greens are all playing politics to get a second referendum. No one is above self-interest.

May won't get it through. To many MP's don't want Brexit to happen. But not enough want to put their name to another referendum. This is why they should all forget about which party they are aligned to. Because it isn't a party policy thing. If they did that then I could see another referendum. Otherwise not at all.

 

[Astute]

You should offer your expertise then.

I didn’t say you had said something different.

It’s weird you never pull up any leavers comments, instead you seem to spend your time liking their posts - haha

Yes when I agree with them. Nothing like yourself when it only has to be anything about remaining. But you only want to consider one side of the story.

As usual you ignore half my posts which is in favour of remain or the EU and hound me if you don't like a certain post. Yet you never prove anything wrong however much you try.

Whatever I post is my opinion and you won't stop me from posting it whatever and however much you try.

Or would you like to make a list of where I have been wrong?

 

[CCFCSteve]

Let's not forget the 118 rebels from the Conservative party and the 10 DUP MPs who voted against the deal. The deal isn't an acceptable one to Parliament and that's why there was opposition across the political spectrum. The amendments were moved (1 Tory, PC and SNP as well as the Labour one) so there could be a clean vote on May's deal. Why? This is because of an amendment to the deal would have to be agreed by the EU and the deal renegotiated, which would have to come back to a Parliament for another vote anyway.

The Government presented its deal or no deal to play politics with Brexit, that's undeniable. Since Labour want an election, they probably won't cooperate until there is absolutely zero chance of another GE being called. All sides are playing politics over Brexit and any attempt to slander the other for being 'self-interested' is disingenuous.

Yes, Labour is playing politics to get the election it wants. Yes, the Government is playing politics to get its deal through. Yes, the SNP, LD, PC and Greens are all playing politics to get a second referendum. No one is above self-interest.

That’s why I said ‘it’s parliament’.

But as I also said if Labour (and the opposition parties) wanted a No deal off the table they had the opportunity. A significant number of tories that voted against were ERG and would like a No deal (bizarrely). They aren’t the ones now asking for it to be taken off the table though

 

[clint van damme]

He seems to want to become PM more than anything. And it was obvious that the vote of no confidence on the Tory government was going to fail. He would have known that.

Agree with your statement about him being PM, but what is his motivation for that? Is it because he craves the power or is it because he's determined to reverse tory policy?

As for the vote of no confidence, I don't think he was under any illusion it would succeed but I think it's all part of the process/charade.

 

[clint van damme]

Over 100 Tory MP's have already voted against it. That is a massive swing needed. It isn't going to happen.

if she offers keeping us in the CU I think it will be a game changer.
The problem they have is I think that will be seen as a betrayal of the referendum. I think May and Corbyn would go for it like a shot if each could guarantee they could pin it on the other.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

Over 100 Tory MP's have already voted against it. That is a massive swing needed. It isn't going to happen.

You don’t understand. Legally speaking, the UK leaves the EU with or without a deal on the 29th March. That’s what the legislation says.

The implications of May Deal being rejected is clear, if nothing is agreed and ratified by Parliament before the 29/3/19, we leave without a deal. The Government has confirmed this and so far has said it will not extend Article 50.

Theresa May will outline ‘Plan B’ on Monday and amendments will be able to be tabled and MPs will be able to vote on that. As it stands, the house is split three ways between May’s Deal, No Deal and a Second Referendum. The only possibility of a majority is if either May or Corbyn throw their weight behind a deal or referendum. Both leaders are playing a game of political chicken.

Theresa May is trying to run the clock down so a deal becomes the default option and is trying to force Labour into backing a second referendum.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

That’s why I said ‘it’s parliament’.

But as I also said if Labour (and the opposition parties) wanted a No deal off the table they had the opportunity. A significant number of tories that voted against were ERG and would like a No deal (bizarrely). They aren’t the ones now asking for it to be taken off the table though

The MPs would’ve voted on the amendments separately to the main body of legislation. There was a vote on an amendment for the UK to have the right to unilaterally withdraw from the backstop in Northern Ireland — it lost 600 to 24.

 

[Grendel]

You don’t understand. Legally speaking, the UK leaves the EU with or without a deal on the 29th March. That’s what the legislation says.

The implications of May Deal being rejected is clear, if nothing is agreed and ratified by Parliament before the 29/3/19, we leave without a deal. The Government has confirmed this and so far has said it will not extend Article 50.

Theresa May will outline ‘Plan B’ on Monday and amendments will be able to be tabled and MPs will be able to vote on that. As it stands, the house is split three ways between May’s Deal, No Deal and a Second Referendum. The only possibility of a majority is if either May or Corbyn throw their weight behind a deal or referendum. Both leaders are playing a game of political chicken.

Theresa May is trying to run the clock down so a deal becomes the default option and is trying to force Labour into backing a second referendum.

No they are not split 3 ways there is a 4th way - also you don’t understand that a second referendum could not be ratified and done before the end of March and as you say there is no desire you extend the deadline

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

A poll out today shows her rating a massive 16 points ahead of Corbyn and the Tories taking a 5 point lead over labour

Yougov?

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

No they are not split 3 ways there is a 4th way - also you don’t understand that a second referendum could not be ratified and done before the end of March and as you say there is no desire you extend the deadline

There’s no desire to extend the deadline from the Government at the moment, but that could change because there’s not parliamentary sessions to pass all the relevant legislation before the 29th March.

Besides, Labour and other opposition and a few Tory Remainers like Ken Clarke are in favour of extending Article 50. Enough for a majority? Maybe.

 

[Grendel]

There’s no desire to extend the deadline from the Government at the moment, but that could change because there’s not parliamentary sessions to pass all the relevant legislation before the 29th March.

Besides, Labour and other opposition and a few Tory Remainers like Ken Clarke are in favour of extending Article 50. Enough for a majority? Maybe.

We are not allowed to extend it unilaterally

 

[Ian1779]

Theresa May is trying to run the clock down so a deal becomes the default option and is trying to force Labour into backing a second referendum.

This is her plan. Then all she has to do is say 'we are the Party that respects the will of the people'. He's equally hoping she will do the same.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

We are not allowed to extend it unilaterally

Thank you for stating the obvious.

So far the government has said it won’t ask to extend Article 50, but a parliamentary vote could change that.

 

[Mucca Mad Boys]

This is her plan. Then all she has to do is say 'we are the Party that respects the will of the people'. He's equally hoping she will do the same.

You didn’t get the memo, it’s all Corbyn’s fault...

 

[Ian1779]

You didn’t get the memo, it’s all Corbyn’s fault...

We have a media that holds the opposition and its leader to account, but incapable of doing the same to the party in power.

People like Cameron and Blair somehow managed to con people into thinking that they were leaders. What a fucking joke.

 

[CCFCSteve]

The MPs would’ve voted on the amendments separately to the main body of legislation. There was a vote on an amendment for the UK to have the right to unilaterally withdraw from the backstop in Northern Ireland — it lost 600 to 24.

Fully aware of the procedure, my point remains the same, if Labour were that concerned about the No Deal they could have made an amendment proposal, pushed for it publically and voted for the withdrawal agreement.

I understand that the NI backstop amendment was voted down due to concerns over it being a unilateral amendment to the withdrawal agreement. Still worth doing in my view as it might have strengthened Mays hand IF the vote had been closer and it was such a big issue for parliament. A suggested amendment for labour would have been to direct the government in the next stage of discussions (therefore not unilaterally amending agreement). There was no will to do this for the reasons stated previously

 

[CCFCSteve]

Interesting comment by Vince Cable on Corbyn

"Since he appears to be determined to play party political games rather than acting on the wishes of his own members and MPs, he will no longer be able to rely on our support for further no-confidence motions.

I believe other parties are taking the same view. It’s time Mr Corbyn got off the fence and made his position plain."

Scuppered his plan for regular no confidence votes ! It also puts him under increasing pressure to agree to support a second referendum (which he doesn't want to do) as after GE, second ref was next for party members.