How many points for survival? (3 Viewers)

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grego_gee

grego_gee

New Member
They think it's all over! ..... It's not yet!

Well I had to look at it!
here's my take, we finish level with Bristol on 45 pts.
(lets hope we can take our better goal average with us)
PUSB!


Click here

I'll update it over the run-in.
 
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sky_blue_up_north

sky_blue_up_north

Well-Known Member
Barnsley are shocking Bristol will beat them.
 
torchomatic

torchomatic

Well-Known Member
"Forest are shocking, Leeds will beat them"
"Forest are shocking, Brum will beat them"
"Our away form is shocking, Hull will beat us"
"Bristol are shocking, Forest will beat them"

sky_blue_up_north said:
Barnsley are shocking Bristol will beat them.
Click to expand...
 
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SonofErnie

Well-Known Member
1 more point than Bristol over the next 3 games to give us a chance on the last day. It's not beyond Barnsley to get a draw, they're not that bad defensively, after all we only beat them in the last 10 minutes
 
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smileycov

Facebook User
I fear for us now, and i have always had hope! Bristol will most definately get at least 3 points possibly 4, we however can probally look at 6 if we are lucky. So on my thinking we need a point or more at Burnley and/or Southampton. Just can not see it. #weblewthe6pointers
 
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SkyBluePryce

New Member
does anyone else think that barnsley will lose all their remaining games? unlikely but looking at each game individually i would say they would lose all 4. potentially meanning 2 wins and 2 draws, or a cheeky away win would mean survival..... long shot but staying optimistic :eek:
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
My worry now is that we will lie down and go down without as much as a whimper on Saturday.

Kind of expecting a "feeling sorry for ourselves" attitude and an easy win for Burnley. Going to to have to predict a 0-3 defeat.

Hope I'm wrong of course, but i think a combination of our being back in the bottom 3, being 4 points adrift and having mounting injuries, is going to take it's toll.

Think we will try but will lack spirit and just go down with little fight.
 
CovLis86

CovLis86

Well-Known Member
Sadly, I think i a gree with Otis. I fear that after Mondays gutless display, the game against Burnley may be even more so, and we may well get turned over and thats the end of our Championship stay.
Its going to take something pretty special to get out of this mess, and it truly would be the greatest of all our escapes.
 
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smileycov

Facebook User
Anyone know, the current injury list that rules anyone out for saturday?
 
grego_gee

grego_gee

New Member
subbed on sat
67 Chris Hussey
86 Gary Deegan
78 Cody McDonald
Chris Hussey went off early with an injury, didn't look too serious, the other two were just knackered!
 
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LeamingtonBootBoy

New Member
Why was Deegan knackered, he did fuck all...oh apart from the fuck up for the first goal....at least McSheffrey will be fresh for Saturday seeing as he also did fuck all on Monday.....:jerkit:
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
grego_gee said:
subbed on sat
67 Chris Hussey
86 Gary Deegan
78 Cody McDonald
Chris Hussey went off early with an injury, didn't look too serious, the other two were just knackered!
Click to expand...

Platt, Nimely and Keogh were all playing with knocks too. It's like the walking wounded.

Or in our case, The Walking Dead.

The mind is willing but the spirit is weak.
 
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LeamingtonBootBoy

New Member
I agree that it isn't all over, but one stat to consider;

Feb 25 - we beat Barnsley and were 3 points from saftey
mid-April - after a run of 3 defeats in 10/11 games, we are 4 points from safety

We are no nearer achieving our task than 6 weeks ago....so a monumental improvement needed in the next 4 games.

Another stat to consider....we have won 9 games in 44 and even on our recent 'good run' we have won 4 in 12....we only win 1 in 5 as an average, and 1 in 3 if you really want to take a short term snapshot.

Based on the above, I'm seeing it hard to find the 2/3 wins in 4 games that we need.....hence why I stated that Bristol was more a must not lose, rather than must win....as I think 1 win and 2 draws is possible from our last 4 games, but 2 wins and 2 draws is a tall order for this set of players....we draw too many games.

Good football? I see low-risk football....keep possession and try not to lose games seems to be AT's tactic...and that won't keep us up IMO.
 
grego_gee

grego_gee

New Member
"We are no nearer achieving our task than 6 weeks ago....so a monumental improvement needed in the next 4 games."
True, but our recent form is good, and it depends who you are playing - Southampton is a tough one but the other three are softer than games relegation rivals are facing.

"Good football? I see low-risk football....keep possession and try not to lose games seems to be AT's tactic...and that won't keep us up IMO."
I don't think that's fair, I think we lost against Bristol because he (Thorn) was trying to win it. On reflection 1 point would have been invaluable!
 
PhilWasn'tBabb

PhilWasn'tBabb

New Member
LeamingtonBootBoy said:
I agree that it isn't all over, but one stat to consider;

Feb 25 - we beat Barnsley and were 3 points from saftey
mid-April - after a run of 3 defeats in 10/11 games, we are 4 points from safety

We are no nearer achieving our task than 6 weeks ago....so a monumental improvement needed in the next 4 games.

Another stat to consider....we have won 9 games in 44 and even on our recent 'good run' we have won 4 in 12....we only win 1 in 5 as an average, and 1 in 3 if you really want to take a short term snapshot.

Based on the above, I'm seeing it hard to find the 2/3 wins in 4 games that we need.....hence why I stated that Bristol was more a must not lose, rather than must win....as I think 1 win and 2 draws is possible from our last 4 games, but 2 wins and 2 draws is a tall order for this set of players....we draw too many games.

Good football? I see low-risk football....keep possession and try not to lose games seems to be AT's tactic...and that won't keep us up IMO.
Click to expand...

Well... that has put pay to all my hopes of staying up.... dam you and your damed states ;)
 
Otis

Otis

Well-Known Member
Certainly can't see us winning 3 games and it would pretty much have to be 3 games in a row, so we do need Bristol to fail. 2 defeats in succession to Brum and West Ham would help for starters.
 
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LeamingtonBootBoy

New Member
We rarely do. Clingan sits too close to the back 4 and therefore the opposition midfield invariably dominates possession.

I like Clive Platt, but playing him makes it too tempting to lump it upfield after a couple of 5/10 yard passes.

We have no width, and no one who is willing to run with the ball...that was one key difference between us and Bristol on Monday.
 
CovLis86

CovLis86

Well-Known Member
We were bloody awful against Bristol. Anyone who says otherwise is mad. No passion, got dominated and didnt create a thing. Flukey own goal to get us ahead, completely against run of play.

All we can hope for is the players were so embarrased they can onyl play much better. Because now Bristol have the buzz that apparently weve had for last month... month too early perhaps.
 
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LeamingtonBootBoy

New Member
Good football is only good football if there is an end product.

Keeping possession and playing 5/10 yard balls to end up where you started or to end with a hoof to Clive Platt is not good football...in my book.

It seems that this is the definition of good football for some...starting with the coaching/management staff of the club and some of the fans...I respect that opinion.

However, then I look at the league table......:thinking about:
 
Perryccfc

Perryccfc

Well-Known Member
I have been hoping and praying, but the Easter weekend was a disaster. We didn't beat Peterborough and brizzle went and won at forest! Then them beating us was the killer IMO. I don't think we will beat burnley or millwall. Doncaster possibly but I think we will be gone by then. It's so sad to see our club like this
 
idris65

idris65

Member
Perryccfc said:
I have been hoping and praying, but the Easter weekend was a disaster. We didn't beat Peterborough and brizzle went and won at forest! Then them beating us was the killer IMO. I don't think we will beat burnley or millwall. Doncaster possibly but I think we will be gone by then. It's so sad to see our club like this
Click to expand...

yep we are well and truly up sheisse strasse.
 
grego_gee

grego_gee

New Member
Updated:3 matches left
Portsmouth winning away at Donny effects nothing (unless they win all their 3 remaining games)
Millwall have gone out of site with wins over 2 last games.
Bristol v Barnsley on 21st is still the cruncher, if Bristol beat Barnsley
we might wind up level with Barnsley and going through on GD

We need to win against Millwall and Donny, but maybe a draw against Millwall will just do!


Updated spreadsheet Click here
(I've opened the sheet for editing so you can try different results - please reset any changes afterwards)
 
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grego_gee

grego_gee

New Member
Here's the number of points the last relegated team have gone down with over the last seven seasons.
This year it will be 45 or 47! :pimp:

2010-11 42 Preston
2009-10 47 Crystal Palace
2008-9 46 Plymouth
2007-8 52 Leicester
2006-7 42 Southend
2005-6 42 Crewe
2004-5 50 Gillingham
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Realistically it looks like we'll have to avoid defeat in the remaining fixtures, with Brizzle at home to Barnsley on the last day, if we're still in the equation we will certainly need something at St Mary's.
 
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