The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (80 Viewers)

[CCFCSteve]

Former members of his cabinet seemed to believe it Steve, along with the two dozen MPs he's kicked out since he came in. The ramping up in No Deal preparations would seem to suggest that also. It was quite simple-deny Parliament as much time as possible so it couldn't continue to obstruct his efforts.

Pork pies all round?

I honestly view it a different way mate. He needs to be able to see if he can get an agreement with the EU, I understand from reports legal text will be submitted this week. It will be obvious if he’s not tried and I will gladly hold my hands up if he hasn’t.

Talk of trying to get force him to request an extension this weekend ie as soon as he apparently plans to submit a details proposal is as bad, if not worse, than the (waste of time !) trying to prorogue

Ps you have to look at a majority of those MPs and what they stand for.....they are ardent remainers. The more I think about it, the more Rudds change of heart to accept a No Deal if necessary appears suspect (not genuine). Again, her call, if she doesn’t support it stand by your principles but I think there was positioning and game playing going on

 

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[Brighton Sky Blue]

Can’t wait for Sajid Javid to become a laughing stock for not knowing his numbers.

Oh wait, that only happens if you’re a Labour MP.

Pledging a higher wage than Corbyn of course he will get flak from all on here...

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I honestly view it a different way mate. He needs to be able to see if he can get an agreement with the EU, I understand from reports legal text will be submitted this week. It will be obvious if he’s not tried and I will gladly hold my hands up if he hasn’t.

Talk of trying to get force him to request an extension this weekend ie as soon as he apparently plans to submit a details proposal is as bad, if not worse, than the (waste of time !) trying to prorogue

Ps you have to look at a majority of those MPs and what they stand for.....they are ardent remainers. The more I think about it, the more Rudds change of heart to accept a No Deal if necessary appears suspect (not genuine). Again, her call, if she doesn’t support it stand by your principles but I think there was positioning and game playing going on

Well I look at Javid’s comments today reinforcing his earlier answers suggesting that the law will be circumnavigated to guarantee a Halloween exit. The root cause of my doubt here is that we’re presented with the country’s biggest compulsive liar and we’re asked to trust him.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Can’t wait for Sajid Javid to become a laughing stock for not knowing his numbers.

Oh wait, that only happens if you’re a Labour MP.

If he doesn’t know his numbers then we are all fucked (check his background)

It’s an honest response on cost of No Deal anyone giving a number good or bad is a bullshitter as there is no way of telling

Ps agree that Johnson would’ve quite liked Mays deal. I believe most did deep down barring the concern over the indefiniteness (is that even a word ?!) of the backstop. Even then, from memory (I might be wrong), the detail I read, which May/the government never truly majored on, was that we would remain in CU but not pay as well as there being other disincentives for the EU. A lot of EU countries weren’t happy with this as we would get benefits of CU without contributing. If that’s correct the only other point Id have requested is that the EU can’t implement any new trade related laws without our agreement. Fact is we would need this time to negotiate new trade deals anyway !!!

Just checked (I’m a bit of a geek like that). If we go into the backstop, will the UK be making any financial contributions to the EU for that period?

 

[CCFCSteve]

Well I look at Javid’s comments today reinforcing his earlier answers suggesting that the law will be circumnavigated to guarantee a Halloween exit. The root cause of my doubt here is that we’re presented with the country’s biggest compulsive liar and we’re asked to trust him.

Fair point !!! I do believe that he’s trying to get a deal though and he’s trying to force the EU into believing we might still just leave anyway. If the EU believe we definitely won’t, why offer anything new at all (unless they are as sick of this as me/us !). extending gives them a stronger position in future negotiations. Not to mention the ability to pretty much pick the length of the extension, meaning significant contributions continuing.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Fair point !!! I do believe that he’s trying to get a deal though and he’s trying to force the EU into believing we might still just leave anyway. If the EU believe we definitely won’t, why offer anything new at all (unless they are as sick of this as me/us !). extending gives them a stronger position in future negotiations. Not to mention the ability to pretty much pick the length of the extension, meaning significant contributions continuing.

The EU is prepared for either outcome but simply want an answer. Not to mention that Farage has vowed to go against Johnson if he shies away from No Deal

 

[djr8369]

Fair point !!! I do believe that he’s trying to get a deal though and he’s trying to force the EU into believing we might still just leave anyway. If the EU believe we definitely won’t, why offer anything new at all .

Because the negotiations have absolutely nothing to do with bargaining power and leverage in the way the public perceive it and are more based on cooperation and pragmatism.



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[Ian1779]

So why has Labour support gone down and what could have been done to avoid it?

Labour support has dropped I believe because Lab voters in metropolitan areas have moved to Lib Dems - certainly in EU and local elections. There is also the fact that something similar will have happened in Northern Leave Seats - which will have gone to Brexit party again in EU/Local.

The crux will be whether that when push comes to shove in a GE - will they come back? I think Labour have the domestic agenda to attract the majority back (maybe not all) so they will need a massive effort on the campaign trail to try and win those seats they need to be the largest party. I don’t think they can manage an outright majority at this stage (nor do I think the Tories can).

It’s easy to say he/they should have done this or that. I stand by the belief that this is the way Labour should have gone, however I do think that they needed to be much clearer on their communication, tell people that it wasn’t a fence sitting position, but instead an effort to unite a deeply fractured nation. This was always going to be a problem faced by a party with a complex voter base. It’s been far easier for Tories and Lib Dems to adopt extreme positions, as it has minimal impact on their core vote.

Better trying to be a voice for 99% than 48 or 52 IMO.

 

[shmmeee]

If he doesn’t know his numbers then we are all fucked (check his background)

It’s an honest response on cost of No Deal anyone giving a number good or bad is a bullshitter as there is no way of telling

Ps agree that Johnson would’ve quite liked Mays deal. I believe most did deep down barring the concern over the indefiniteness (is that even a word ?!) of the backstop. Even then, from memory (I might be wrong), the detail I read, which May/the government never truly majored on, was that we would remain in CU but not pay as well as there being other disincentives for the EU. A lot of EU countries weren’t happy with this as we would get benefits of CU without contributing. If that’s correct the only other point Id have requested is that the EU can’t implement any new trade related laws without our agreement. Fact is we would need this time to negotiate new trade deals anyway !!!

Just checked (I’m a bit of a geek like that). If we go into the backstop, will the UK be making any financial contributions to the EU for that period?

It was only tongue in cheek (I have seen him make Abbott style mistakes before though)Though considering Javids background was in Deutschebank just before the crash I’m not sure it’s that stellar TBH.

Luckily for us all it’s well trained civil servants who need to know the numbers not MPs. I just wish those who howl at any side making mistakes in live interviews could get that.

 

[shmmeee]

I honestly view it a different way mate. He needs to be able to see if he can get an agreement with the EU, I understand from reports legal text will be submitted this week. It will be obvious if he’s not tried and I will gladly hold my hands up if he hasn’t.

Talk of trying to get force him to request an extension this weekend ie as soon as he apparently plans to submit a details proposal is as bad, if not worse, than the (waste of time !) trying to prorogue

Ps you have to look at a majority of those MPs and what they stand for.....they are ardent remainers. The more I think about it, the more Rudds change of heart to accept a No Deal if necessary appears suspect (not genuine). Again, her call, if she doesn’t support it stand by your principles but I think there was positioning and game playing going on

More people voted for this parliament than voted Leave (I.e. votes for the winning MPs total around 500k more than votes for Leave) if it’s got a Remain bias, so do the electorate.

 

[shmmeee]

Because the negotiations have absolutely nothing to do with bargaining power and leverage in the way the public perceive it and are more based on cooperation and pragmatism.



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It’s the new “national credit card” meme. So much about macroeconomics and international trade doesn’t fit the household budget/bloke at a cash and carry metaphor and those that push that line know it.

 

[shmmeee]

Fair point !!! I do believe that he’s trying to get a deal though and he’s trying to force the EU into believing we might still just leave anyway. If the EU believe we definitely won’t, why offer anything new at all (unless they are as sick of this as me/us !). extending gives them a stronger position in future negotiations. Not to mention the ability to pretty much pick the length of the extension, meaning significant contributions continuing.

Can I just say: love your contributions to this thread. Nice to have reasoned debate on this topic.

 

[skybluetony176]

Portsmouth not ready according to leaked documents. They’re expecting 2000 lorries a day through RORO and only have parking for a couple of hundred lorries should their be hold ups.

 

[skybluetony176]

Also what’s all this project fear regarding riots. The Tory Party seems to be overplaying this card to the point of inciting violence.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Portsmouth not ready according to leaked documents. They’re expecting 2000 lorries a day through RORO and only have parking for a couple of hundred lorries should their be hold ups.

Portsmouth eh....what on Earth?!

 

[CCFCSteve]

Can I just say: love your contributions to this thread. Nice to have reasoned debate on this topic.

Cheers mate. To be fair there’s plenty of decent contributors on here and I’ve learned a lot. We all struggle to sometimes see the other side of the argument (including me !), however, with how divided the country is it’s even more important that we all at least try (as long as it’s a sensible/considered argument).

Probably helps that it was very much a considered toss up for me (which I agonised over and have continued to do since)

Ps I also got used to having to have reasoned debates as pretty much all of my mates voted remain and so did my brother who I’m very close to. One of my best mates having very strong opinions !!! We’re still mates and I’ve still got a brother !

I forgave them ; )

 

[CCFCSteve]

More people voted for this parliament than voted Leave (I.e. votes for the winning MPs total around 500k more than votes for Leave) if it’s got a Remain bias, so do the electorate.

A lot of people like their local MP though and/or will never veer from their chosen political party. Could be a shake up coming though ! I’ve got to admit I’ve been so disappointed by a majority of MPs of all sides (that’s putting it politely !)

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

A lot of people like their local MP though and/or will never veer from their chosen political party. Could be a shake up coming though ! I’ve got to admit I’ve been so disappointed by a majority of MPs of all sides (that’s putting it politely !)

Every time I’ve asked for assistance from my parliamentary mp and his office he has always raised questions with the appropriate minister or in the House of Commons and on a variety of issues my suggestions have led to meaningful change. Our parliament is a reflection of the apathy across our society. A mixture of entitlement and laziness and then some individuals throw at me that I’m just bitter that I lost a vote. Staggers me and is beyond belief. Our system isn’t perfect but it works quite well even in these crazy days if people give a shit and get involved

 

[CCFCSteve]

Because the negotiations have absolutely nothing to do with bargaining power and leverage in the way the public perceive it and are more based on cooperation and pragmatism

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Agreed. I’m not necessarily talking about No Deal being massive leverage and doesn’t mean that the EU will do any deal which will weaken the wider union. However, let’s be honest, nearly all EU countries will want a deal done deep down. The impact of a No Deal will have a negative impact on most countries GDP (ours and Ireland being worst hit) and with the global economy looking shaky its the last thing we or anyone else wants.

I look at it slightly in reverse....if the opportunity is there to extend, as the EU know we 100% can’t leave with No Deal (as Parliament will stop it), where’s the incentive to offer anything more ? Also, if they believe we cant walk away and they can pretty much dictate the terms of the extension, it surely makes it even more attractive for them not to offer anything. That’s why love him or hate him it’s important Johnson holds his nerve (and potentially bullshits his way over whether they can circumvent the anti no deal act) over the next few days in the hope that the EU seriously consider any proposals he puts forward this week.

I can assure you the last thing I want is a No Deal (and don’t believe he does either).

 

[djr8369]

Agreed. I’m not necessarily talking about No Deal being massive leverage and doesn’t mean that the EU will do any deal which will weaken the wider union. However, let’s be honest, nearly all EU countries will want a deal done deep down. The impact of a No Deal will have a negative impact on most countries GDP (ours and Ireland being worst hit) and with the global economy looking shaky its the last thing we or anyone else wants.

I look at it slightly in reverse....if the opportunity is there to extend, as the EU know we 100% can’t leave with No Deal (as Parliament will stop it), where’s the incentive to offer anything more ? Also, if they believe we cant walk away and they can pretty much dictate the terms of the extension, it surely makes it even more attractive for them not to offer anything. That’s why love him or hate him it’s important Johnson holds his nerve (and potentially bullshits his way over whether they can circumvent the anti no deal act) over the next few days in the hope that the EU seriously consider any proposals he puts forward this week.

I can assure you the last thing I want is a No Deal (and don’t believe he does either).

What could they offer though if they even wanted to? They can’t magic away the issues of the Irish border with goodwill.

The only way I can see any alternatives coming up anywhere is if we changed our red lines but any fundamental changes would require another long negotiation period.


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[CCFCSteve]

The EU is prepared for either outcome but simply want an answer. Not to mention that Farage has vowed to go against Johnson if he shies away from No Deal

If Brexit has happened Farage is less of an issue. Brexit party will still get a proportion of the votes but nowhere near as much as if the GE happens pre Brexit.

The last thing we want is a GE with a Tory/Brexit party pact. Maybe something else for people to consider if they have to vote for another WA

 

[CCFCSteve]

What could they offer though if they even wanted to? They can’t magic away the issues of the Irish border with goodwill.

The only way I can see any alternatives coming up anywhere is if we changed our red lines but any fundamental changes would require another long negotiation period.

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We’ll find out this/next week I guess !

As I said before, offer to give UK (or at least NI) the ability to veto changes in EU trade law during the backstop period ?

Take a view on this hybrid solution (mixture of tech solution and NI remaining under same agri arrangement) ie accepting a slightly imperfect solution ?

The issue won’t be resolved until a final trade agreement is reached (as astute and I have indicated previously), that’s why it should’ve be discussed concurrently. Barnier wanted the additional leverage from the chosen sequencing (not blaming him, I would’ve as well)

 

[Astute]

We’ll find out this/next week I guess !

As I said before, offer to give UK (or at least NI) the ability to veto changes in EU trade law during the backstop period ?

Take a view on this hybrid solution (mixture of tech solution and NI remaining under same agri arrangement) ie accepting a slightly imperfect solution ?

The issue won’t be resolved until a final trade agreement is reached (as astute and I have indicated previously), that’s why it should’ve be discussed concurrently. Barnier wanted the additional leverage from the chosen sequencing (not blaming him, I would’ve as well)

This is why I don't understand why some can't comprehend that the Irish border problems, although a reality check to what would happen if a trade agreement isn't made that allows free movement of goods, should hold negotiations up.

We have wasted a few years and billions of pounds on the subject. Same in the EU. We can't get it through parliament. Yet again I say the same thing. Remainers don't want it as it could/would mean we leave the EU. Leavers don't want it as it could/would mean we are still tied to the EU. They don't see it as leaving. They want a clean break.

The Irish backstop isn't needed to start negotiating. But if we start negotiating us leaving the problem is that the train will have started rolling. It would be hard to stop. Nobody in the EU wants us to leave. Our money is needed. This isn't just the billions we dinate to the cause each year. Our trade is needed. Our strength is needed. Then add that the majority of MP's don't want us to leave. So most are happy for this to rumble on as long as it stops Brexit from happening.

But how much longer can we keep going on like this? The longer it continues the more divided we get. The more divided we get the harder it will be to come to a solution.

Like I said before we need to get around a table and talk. Non stop posturing from all sides won't work. Lets work out what version of what can happen. Lets see what sort of deal we can come up with. Then put it to the public if we have to. This way nobody would have the excuse that we didn't have the details or that we would be better off just leaving without a deal.

 

[Astute]

They have a terrible leader.

They could get a new leader (but not right now as there isn’t time).

I have been much kinder to Corbyn than you have here and got slaughtered on here for it.

I now await to see if it is just me they like to have a go at or if it is just defending Corbyn that they are doing.

We know the answer though.

 

[Sick Boy]

This is why I don't understand why some can't comprehend that the Irish border problems, although a reality check to what would happen if a trade agreement isn't made that allows free movement of goods, should hold negotiations up.

We have wasted a few years and billions of pounds on the subject. Same in the EU. We can't get it through parliament. Yet again I say the same thing. Remainers don't want it as it could/would mean we leave the EU. Leavers don't want it as it could/would mean we are still tied to the EU. They don't see it as leaving. They want a clean break.

The Irish backstop isn't needed to start negotiating. But if we start negotiating us leaving the problem is that the train will have started rolling. It would be hard to stop. Nobody in the EU wants us to leave. Our money is needed. This isn't just the billions we dinate to the cause each year. Our trade is needed. Our strength is needed. Then add that the majority of MP's don't want us to leave. So most are happy for this to rumble on as long as it stops Brexit from happening.

But how much longer can we keep going on like this? The longer it continues the more divided we get. The more divided we get the harder it will be to come to a solution.

Like I said before we need to get around a table and talk. Non stop posturing from all sides won't work. Lets work out what version of what can happen. Lets see what sort of deal we can come up with. Then put it to the public if we have to. This way nobody would have the excuse that we didn't have the details or that we would be better off just leaving without a deal.

The free movement of goods across the Irish border is gong to require regulatory alignment, something that some of the more extreme Brexiteers are against as they see Brexit as an opportunity to deregulate.

 

[Astute]

The free movement of goods across the Irish border is gong to require regulatory alignment, something that some of the more extreme Brexiteers are against as they see Brexit as an opportunity to deregulate.

Have I ever said differently?

I know you are waiting for a couple of words from me that you can twist. But here we go.

We don't need a backstop to negotiate.

When negotiating we would still be a member of the EU. Maybe then some reality would hit hime on some people.

People are not right just because they say they are or think they are.

You won't change someones mind by calling them thick. But you could well harden their views.

Yes we have extremists on both sides. All you have to do is look on this thread.

 

[Sick Boy]

Have I ever said differently?

I know you are waiting for a couple of words from me that you can twist. But here we go.

We don't need a backstop to negotiate.

When negotiating we would still be a member of the EU. Maybe then some reality would hit hime on some people.

People are not right just because they say they are or think they are.

You won't change someones mind by calling them thick. But you could well harden their views.

Yes we have extremists on both sides. All you have to do is look on this thread.

Not trying to twist anything, just pointing out that they’d likely be significant opposition to it.
Disagree that there are extremists on this thread, certainly not on that remain side.

Who would you say is an extremist?

 

[Astute]

Not trying to twist anything, just pointing out that they’d likely be significant opposition to it.
Disagree that there are extremists on this thread, certainly not on that remain side.

Who would you say is an extremist?

Yourself for one.

 

[Sick Boy]

Yourself for one.

Hahaha...yes an extremist who has said to leave and go with the EEA option as a way of compromise.

 

[Astute]

Hahaha...yes an extremist who has said to leave and go with the EEA option as a way of compromise.

And twists everything I say. Rips into me fir saying anything about Corbyn but says nothing to someone with similar views on just about everything else that calls him a terrible leader. Agrees with another of his posts saying May did an amazing job when you admit she didn't. Yet would slaughter anyone if they liked a post which just slightly mentioned something you knew wasn't right. You defend the EU to the hilt and have a go at the UK for anything you can. You make out that everyone who voted leave didn't have a clue what they voted for. You said that open borders didn't make any difference to homelessness or similar in the UK but then had a go at Brits like myself who was taking a house in France that the French needed....although they don't.

I could continue. But it is a waste of time with you. You don't want a debate. You have an agenda and that is it.

 

[Sick Boy]

And twists everything I say. Rips into me fir saying anything about Corbyn but says nothing to someone with similar views on just about everything else that calls him a terrible leader. Agrees with another of his posts saying May did an amazing job when you admit she didn't. Yet would slaughter anyone if they liked a post which just slightly mentioned something you knew wasn't right. You defend the EU to the hilt and have a go at the UK for anything you can. You make out that everyone who voted leave didn't have a clue what they voted for. You said that open borders didn't make any difference to homelessness or similar in the UK but then had a go at Brits like myself who was taking a house in France that the French needed....although they don't.

I could continue. But it is a waste of time with you. You don't want a debate. You have an agenda and that is it.

I twist and have an agenda?

Most of the stuff you’ve just stated is made up nonsense to back up you’re own viewpoint, especially the crap about Corbyn.

You come out with your ‘facts’ but like the other day are unable to back any of your claims up and refuse to even answer.

I don’t think I’ve ever had a go at the UK, unlike some leavers on here who seem to want to change it quite drastically.

If liking a post is an outright and full agreement, then surely that means you agree with a poster that the EU is a dictatorship, wow that’s a pretty extreme position.

Get back to parroting your crap from the Daily Mail while claiming you don’t have an agenda and are immune to propaganda.

Clown.

 

[Astute]

I twist and have an agenda? Most of the stuff you’ve just stated is made up nonsense to back up you’re own viewpoint, especially the crap about Corbyn.

You come out with your ‘facts’ but like the other day are unable to back any of your claims up and refuse to even answer.

I don’t think I’ve ever had a go at the UK, unlike some leavers on here who seem to want to change it quite drastically.

If liking a post is an outright and full agreement, then surely that means you agree with a poster that the EU is a dictatorship, wow that’s a pretty extreme position.

OK.

Lets take it point by point. Have you ever had a go at me when I have said things that could be seen as having a go at Corbyn? And we are talking nowhere near as bad as calling him a terrible leader BTW.

This could be fun.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

This could be fun.

Arguable

 

[Sick Boy]

OK.

Lets take it point by point. Have you ever had a go at me when I have said things that could be seen as having a go at Corbyn? And we are talking nowhere near as bad as calling him a terrible leader BTW.

This could be fun.

I’ve no intention of getting involved in your self-centred childish games.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

Who could have foreseen this

No 10 denies Johnson 'thigh squeeze' claim

Everyone? But as it was 20yrs ago, what can you believe, & given the allegation what is there to gain other than character assassination? What has motivated her to raise it now? Politics!



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