Grendel
Well-Known Member
Long term (like a generation type long term) I can see us looking to rejoin due to economic and geopolitical circumstances surrounding Russia and China. But like you say if we apply to rejoin we'll definitely be in a weaker position than now and won't have half the influence we did when we joined the first time - the terms will pretty much be dictated to us.
Conversely, given how NI has been treated in recent discussions, Scotland has largely been ignored and Wales has pretty much been forgotten, there is a strong case that Scotland will push for and gain independence, those pushing for Irish unification will be emboldened and this will encourage Wales to push for independence (although likely to start with just asking for a bigger say if Scotland left).
Ironically the thing Brexit will ultimately break up is Britain.
Jeremy Corbyn has pretty much indicated he will allow Scotland a referendum regardless of Brexit status if he was PM and he clearly has always wanted Irish unification