The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (90 Viewers)

[shmmeee]

I said potentially elongated it because if the bill is amended it will have to then go back to the EU for agreement, unlike a normal bill which would just pass the house, pass the Lords and become law.

That’s not parliament though, that’s the EU and the nature of these sorts of trade negotiations. The parliamentary process is the normal length.

Let’s be honest here, Boris could get it through with a CU amendment and the EU would likely agree and it’d all be done. As always it’s his desire to suck up to the hard liners that’s causing the delay.

 

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[shmmeee]

Yeah but that won’t be Boris’ fault. It will be (insert opposition party here)’s fault for fighting an election against Boris in the aim of winning seats to maintain the status quo in parliament as a deliberate attempt to block/delay Brexit. You just don’t get it do you. Anything other than rolling over and having your tummy tickled by Boris makes you an undemocratic, lesbian, lefty, communist, snowflake, climate change hoax buying vegan who will do anything to stop democracy # we know what we voted for.

Lesbians too now? We’ll be back to the 80s in no time, single mums next.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

No the opposition have said already they will add amendments which have not been agreed by the 27 other countries so it has in its pure form already been rejected

As are a great many bills at this stage. Even less surprising given that it has to be negotiated with the other 27 countries first rather than the usual domestic bills which are discussed and amended behind the scenes before even getting getting to the house for discussion. The fact it has to then go back to another parliament for agreement rather than just passing straight into law as a domestic bill would is unfortunate, infuriating but necessary

The fact is parliament have not threatened to end the process of passing a WA. Alexander has in favour of a GE because it potentially benefits him as he can play the victim role rather than because it will help get Brexit done. It is a position borne from self-interest, not national interest

 

[Grendel]

As are a great many bills at this stage. Even less surprising given that it has to be negotiated with the other 27 countries first rather than the usual domestic bills which are discussed and amended behind the scenes before even getting getting to the house for discussion. The fact it has to then go back to another parliament for agreement rather than just passing straight into law as a domestic bill would is unfortunate, infuriating but necessary

The fact is parliament have not threatened to end the process of passing a WA. Alexander has in favour of a GE because it potentially benefits him as he can play the victim role rather than because it will help get Brexit done. It is a position borne from self-interest, not national interest

how long did it take 27 different countries to read it? Also it’s the same as Mays deal other than slight amends according to most so it’s been read already

 

[ccfchoi87]

That’s what Labour and Lib Dems are Hopi for. They (the anti Brexit parties) have support focused on different areas, Labour up north and Libs down south in a nutshell.

The only hope they have is that the Brexit vote, which is spread all between Tory shires where Lib Dem’s are strong and working class communities where Labour are, is split between Tory and BXP and lets through their candidate.

As an example, imagine a seat with these votes in 2017: Lab 6000, Con 8000

Then add in BXP and it might look like:
Lab 5500, Con 5000, BXP 3500. The Brexit vote increases but let’s Labour through as it’s split.

They’d need a pact before a GE and Boris has ruled that out and many Tory voters wouldn’t vote BXP just as many BXP voters won’t vote Tory. The Lib/Lab voters are a lot more well versed in tactical voting.

The other question is turnout, the Brexit vote contains a lot of people who have never voted before and may not turn out for a GE.

I’m expecting a Tory win whenever the GE is, but I’m not expecting BXP to have many seats because they don’t have localised support. I suspect because the country is split 50:50 we’ll end up with a similar split in parliament. SNP are likely to clean up in Scotland and cost the Tories seats for example.

There’s every likelihood that we end up with another hung parliament or near as damn it. That’s why we need a referendum to sort this out. The country is split 50:50

We did that and the county is split 52/48.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

That’s not parliament though, that’s the EU and the nature of these sorts of trade negotiations. The parliamentary process is the normal length.

Let’s be honest here, Boris could get it through with a CU amendment and the EU would likely agree and it’d all be done. As always it’s his desire to suck up to the hard liners that’s causing the delay.

Fair enough. I was talking in overall terms of the process having to them go back to the EU to be agreed.

But I agree I think Alexander could get this through if he so desired. But he sees more stock in a GE for his own personal ambitions, and that's what's important. Brexit is little more than a game to him in the grand scheme of getting and retaining power.

 

[skybluetony176]

No the opposition have said already they will add amendments which have not been agreed by the 27 other countries so it has in its pure form already been rejected

So are you suggesting that the EU will vote against the amended bill because of things like alignment with the EU on workers rights are added to the bill? It’s seems obvious that any amendments to the bill are only going to make it more palatable to the EU and therefore the chances of leaving are increased.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

how long did it take 27 different countries to read it? Also it’s the same as Mays deal other than slight amends according to most so it’s been read already

Better tell Alexander it's the same as May's deal with slight changes then as that's not how he's been selling it.

He can't claim that though because he'd look silly for rejecting May's deal when the changes made to it are ones he also outright rejected in the past and considered more unpalatable than May's backstop.

 

[Grendel]

Better tell Alexander it's the same as May's deal with slight changes then as that's not how he's been selling it.

He can't claim that though because he'd look silly for rejecting May's deal when the changes made to it are ones he also outright rejected in the past and considered more unpalatable than May's backstop.

It’s the opposition that says it is and then oddly needs intense scrutiny

 

[shmmeee]

We did that and the county is split 52/48.

Did what?

We had a vote on “Remain or something else” we now need to define “something else” and see if it still has a majority.

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

” we now need to define “something else” and see if it still has a majority.

No we don't, we had a vote with a majority in 2016, leave won get OVER it

 

[shmmeee]

No we don't, we had a vote with a majority in 2016, leave won get OVER it

“Leave” isn’t a destination. Get in a taxi and just say “leave” and see how you get on. The reason we are still here is because the original referendum wasn’t clear.

You voted in a badly designed poll. Get OVER it.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

It’s the opposition that says it is and then oddly needs intense scrutiny

So it goes like this:
Parliament: This is almost the same as May's bill, which you rejected, with a few changes to things you said were even worse
Alexander: No, it isn't.
P: Well, we'd better have time to scrutinise it properly then

Bit like with the prorogation where Alexander was claiming it was for a new Queen's speech and parliament said it wasn't, it was to minimise time to discuss Brexit. Alexander denied this, it went to court and when it went against him basically said the ruling was because they were trying to stop Brexit. Even though he'd said the entire thing had nothing to do with Brexit and there would be ample time to dicuss Brexit even with the prorogation.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

I think there would be more chance of getting this sorted if he accepts the extension and allows a vote on the amendments. I'd imagine most of those proposed would relate to workers rights which he'd have to make concessions on but I don't think the EU would decline.

If the GE isn't the tory landslide that some people think it will be and I suspect it wont be, and the government has a small majority or needs to enter into an arrangement similar to the one it had with the DUP then we're back to square one.

Workers rights as you mention, they could thwart any negative changes by promising to repeal them immediately they gain power - any company taking advantage of the negative changes would have to for the bill for administrative changes for themselves...that would make an rogue businesses think twice before implementing any changes that were optional.

You forget that any amendments have to go through the EU too...that will take time. I thought we all accept it is the incertainty that is stifling businesses.

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[shmmeee]

So are you suggesting that the EU will vote against the amended bill because of things like alignment with the EU on workers rights are added to the bill? It’s seems obvious that any amendments to the bill are only going to make it more palatable to the EU and therefore the chances of leaving are increased.

Literally the only thing the EU has kicked off about is NI and frankly it’s a disgrace they had to eh abuse our own government is so swivel eyed they didn’t care about the peace process.

The EU don’t give a fuck whether we hard, soft, or no Brexit. The issue has always been the UK actually deciding what they want. They took three years to come up with “fuck the DUP” basically.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

Point of order: Parliament hasn’t elongated the process, they’ve just not allowed it to be shortened.

They have elongated it. They could have shared the burden of dissecting it. Like they do with manifestos & other important bills

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[shmmeee]

Workers rights as you mention, they could thwart any negative changes by promising to repeal them immediately they gain power - any company taking advantage of the negative changes would have to for the bill for administrative changes for themselves...that would make an rogue businesses think twice before implementing any changes that were optional.

You forget that any amendments have to go through the EU too...that will take time. I thought we all accept it is the incertainty that is stifling businesses.

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The uncertainty is holding back investment. Once a decision is made there will be economic damage through job losses and businesses closing, we just don’t know exactly which ones until we decide who we are going to fuck over. Currently looks like anyone who trades with Europe but we’ll see.

 

[shmmeee]

They have elongated it. They could have shared the burden of dissecting it. Like they do with manifestos & other important bills

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What do you mean shared the burden?

Do you mean like each take a page? It doesn’t work like that, each part will interact with other parts as well as existing legislation.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

Yeah but that won’t be Boris’ fault. It will be (insert opposition party here)’s fault for fighting an election against Boris in the aim of winning seats to maintain the status quo in parliament as a deliberate attempt to block/delay Brexit.

You were doing alright up to thst point Tony. Boris is playing a blinder for the Tory Party.

Your superfluous sneering prevented you getting a like.

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[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

No we don't, we had a vote with a majority in 2016, leave won get OVER it

Every time you end up going back to the same soundbites taken straight from the Farage/ right wing media:
"17.4million"
"will of the people"
"leave won. Get over it"
You even still persist with the Remoaner tag. It's almost like a bot from the Daily Mail/Sun

There's never much, if any, detailed discussion or debate. The others on this thread do at least go into some detail as to what they think should happen and why, or why something shouldn't have happened.

I get the impression you're the kind of person that shouts "put your foot through it!", "clear it!" and "forward!" at games. Never looking beyond the initial action as to what it may lead to later on.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

What do you mean shared the burden?

Do you mean like each take a page? It doesn’t work like that, each part will interact with other parts as well as existing legislation.

Not literally a page.
Sections, then communicate with each other about perceived consequence & actions required.

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[SkyBlueDom26]

Every time you end up going back to the same soundbites taken straight from the Farage/ right wing media:
"17.4million"
"will of the people"
"leave won. Get over it"
You even still persist with the Remoaner tag. It's almost like a bot from the Daily Mail/Sun

There's never much, if any, detailed discussion or debate. The others on this thread do at least go into some detail as to what they think should happen and why, or why something shouldn't have happened.

I get the impression you're the kind of person that shouts "put your foot through it!", "clear it!" and "forward!" at games. Never looking beyond the initial action as to what it may lead to later on.

How easily rattled haha, relax yourself... remoaner :smuggrin::smuggrin:

 

[shmmeee]

Not literally a page.
Sections, then communicate with each other about perceived consequence & actions required.

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That’s pretty much what Parliament does. It takes time. Even on the normal timescales there will be unexpected things coming out for years because that’s how complex it is.

Saw something yesterday that Johnson himself has contradicted himself on how NI can exercise their consent mechanism.

I’d also point out that he held back the bill for ages to avoid letting people see it, holding up his own timetable.

 

[ccfc92]

“Leave” isn’t a destination. Get in a taxi and just say “leave” and see how you get on. The reason we are still here is because the original referendum wasn’t clear.

You voted in a badly designed poll. Get OVER it.

To be fair, it was Cameron who stated : "Leave or Stay, either way there is no going back"

 

[ccfchoi87]

Did what?

We had a vote on “Remain or something else” we now need to define “something else” and see if it still has a majority.

So what’s the 50/50 split between then?

 

[shmmeee]

To be fair, it was Cameron who stated : "Leave or Stay, either way there is no going back"

Genuinely not sure what your point is here. He also said “Vote Conservative or get chaos with Ed Miliband”, I think it’s safe to say ol’ Spamface McPigfucker isn’t the oracle he makes out.

 

[shmmeee]

So what’s the 50/50 split between then?

Well, quite. In reality it’s more like 50:30:20 or even 50:30:15:5. But in the abstract it’s between Remain and “something else”

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Well, quite. In reality it’s more like 50:30:20 or even 50:30:15:5. But I’m the abstract it’s between Remain and “something else”

It should be the deal vs no deal... no remain bullshit, the majority want to leave

 

[shmmeee]

It should be the deal vs no deal... no remain bullshit, the majority want to leave

*wanted

Most data shows new voters are overwhelmingly Remain.

And as I keep saying, lots of people voted Leave and would prefer Remain to either no deal or CU for example.

Why are you so scared of Remain being on the ballot? Don’t you want the will of the people?

Also no deal is suicide, even Boris admits that now. No sane government would risk that. And what deal?

This is the fundamental issue with Brexit: it only has a majority until someone defines it, then support falls away.

 

[ccfc92]

Genuinely not sure what your point is here. He also said “Vote Conservative or get chaos with Ed Miliband”, I think it’s safe to say ol’ Spamface McPigfucker isn’t the oracle he makes out.

The point is, it was Cameron who instigated this whole debacle. He presented it as a simple leave/stay and the result would be binding.

It's only since the result went "the wrong way", that it was not binding and the goalposts can be moved.

 

[shmmeee]

The point is, it was Cameron who instigated this whole debacle. He presented it as a simple leave/stay and the result would be binding.

It's only since the result went "the wrong way", that it was not binding and the goalposts can be moved.

Well then I guess you’ve learned not to trust Tory PMs, maybe hold onto that knowledge

As I keep saying, Cameron didn’t think Leave would win and didn’t design the referendum to account for that. It’s shit but it is what it is. The Brexiteer lot in parliament should’ve had more confidence and planned for it.

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

*wanted

Most data shows new voters are overwhelmingly Remain.

And as I keep saying, lots of people voted Leave and would prefer Remain to either no deal or CU for example.

Why are you so scared of Remain being on the ballot? Don’t you want the will of the people?

Also no deal is suicide, even Boris admits that now. No sane government would risk that. And what deal?

This is the fundamental issue with Brexit: it only has a majority until someone defines it, then support falls away.

Just talking rubbish as usual, like all remoaners thinking more people now want to remain. Just isn't true is it

 

[shmmeee]

Just talking rubbish as usual, like all remoaners thinking more people now want to remain. Just isn't true is it

Do I need to post the polling again?

Here: Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum - Wikipedia

 

[skybluetony176]

It should be the deal vs no deal... no remain bullshit, the majority want to leave

When the union is so polarised another referendum should be based on how they settle elections in the one part of the union that’s polarised on everything, Northern Ireland. You have an in out referendum with first and second choice option should leave win. So for example if leave did win you turn to the part of the ballot paper that has your first and second choice vote of what brexit should look like. Give the population a binary choice between leave with a Norway style deal (actually the nearest to what the official leave campaign claimed leave would look like), a Canada style brexit (what the erg apparently wants) and a hard brexit (what the we know what we voted for cult now apparently wants even though it was never offered by anyone at time of campaigning). If there’s not a majority for one of the options during the count of first choice votes you move onto second choice and add them to the first choice totals at which point highest number of votes win regardless of if it’s an overall majority or not. This way we as a country decide that A) we’re leaving B) what the destination is. Clear and simple. No one at the moment is getting what was campaigned for initially either with Boris’ deal or a hard brexit. If the answer has changed then it’s only reasonable and democratic to ask the question again.

 

[fellatio_Martinez]

Do I need to post the polling again?

Here: Opinion polling for the United Kingdom European Union membership referendum - Wikipedia

Who trusts polls anymore?

Why opinion polls keep getting it wrong