The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (115 Viewers)

[clint van damme]

Never count your (chlorinated) chicken scare stories until they're slaughtered.

UK's chlorine-washed chicken ban 'to remain'

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didn't realise our trade deal with the States had been sorted, nice one. Got any more details?

 

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[SkyblueBazza]

didn't realise our trade deal with the States had been sorted, nice one. Got any more details?

Is that a vain attempt at sarcasm?

Devil in the detail though isn't it?...How safe is chlorine-washed chicken?

The EU already chlorinate vegetables apparently too.

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[clint van damme]

Is that a vain attempt at sarcasm?

Devil in the detail though isn't it?...How safe is chlorine-washed chicken?

The EU already chlorinate vegetables apparently too.

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no, a trade deal could change everything. If you think the US is going to sit their and say OK every time we say we're keeping the EU standard you're deluded.
US negotiators have a 13 principle process to adhere to when negotiating trade deals, none of them are give in meekly to any request the other country makes.

 

[Sick Boy]

Is that a vain attempt at sarcasm?

Devil in the detail though isn't it?...How safe is chlorine-washed chicken?

The EU already chlorinate vegetables apparently too.

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I think a large problem people have with it is to do with the reasons as to why the washing in chlorine is required on a meat product in the first place and the standards around that.

 

[SkyblueBazza]

I think a large problem people have with it is to do with the reasons as to why the washing in chlorine is required on a meat product in the first place and the standards around that.

Then they need to read the articles provided. It seems it is acknowledged as a safe way of killing any harmful bacteria on the chicken. Concern is said to be around what have become less attentive/contentious approach in subsequent processes bringing the chicken to market

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[SkyblueBazza]

US negotiators have a 13 principle process to adhere to when negotiating trade deals, none of them are give in meekly to any request the other country makes.

I suppose ours will all be about capitulating though, eh? The statement itself suggests not so readily.

As for delusion...look at some of the arguments you have placed your faith in previously & ask yourself if you can claim to be anything but deluded yourself!

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[Sick Boy]

Then they need to read the articles provided. It seems it is acknowledged as a safe way of killing any harmful bacteria on the chicken. Concern is said to be around what have become less attentive/contentious approach in subsequent processes bringing the chicken to market

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...which is what I said.

 

[clint van damme]

I suppose ours will all be about capitulating though, eh? The statement itself suggests not so readily.

As for delusion...look at some of the arguments you have placed your faith in previously & ask yourself if you can claim to be anything but deluded yourself!

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in what way am I deluded Baz, give me an example.

We are going in to these talks, (possibly), as the only country in the world apart from Mauritania without a meaningful trade deal.
We will be desperate and they'll smell it a mile away, capitulation is almost guaranteed.

Of course we may give a lot away in negotiations with the EU in order to keep access to our current trade deals which will limit what we can give away to the US, but I'd imagine that wOULD require giving in on freedom of movement and/or remaining in the customs union which I'm sure would go down a storm among Brexit voters.

 

[chiefdave]

Govt rejects visa-free deal with UK | Sky News Australia

 

[SkyblueBazza]

...which is what I said.

I wasn't disagreeing!

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[SkyblueBazza]

in what way am I deluded Baz, give me an example.

We are going in to these talks, (possibly), as the only country in the world apart from Mauritania without a meaningful trade deal.
We will be desperate and they'll smell it a mile away, capitulation is almost guaranteed.

Of course we may give a lot away in negotiations with the EU in order to keep access to our current trade deals which will limit what we can give away to the US, but I'd imagine that wOULD require giving in on freedom of movement and/or remaining in the customs union which I'm sure would go down a storm among Brexit voters.

Well for one you were deluded in thinking Brexit referendum would be overturned. Two that Labour policies would win them the GE.

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[clint van damme]

Well for one you were deluded in thinking Brexit referendum would be overturned. Two that Labour policies would win them the GE.

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where did I say I think it would be overturned and where have I said I wanted it to be?
Where have I said Labours policies would win them the general election?
Is this what you do when you're losing the argument Baz, make things up?
I said the Tories would win, I never predicted the massive majority they got but at no time did I say Labour would win. You need to make some more shit up Basil!!

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

We will be desperate and they'll smell it a mile away, capitulation is almost guaranteed.

.

Thats the positive attitude i like to hear! In what way would we be desperate, the EU have just as much at stake as us... keeping no deal on the table will keep the pressure on them

 

[clint van damme]

Thats the positive attitude i like to hear! In what way would we be desperate, the EU have just as much at stake as us... keeping no deal on the table will keep the pressure on them

what would a positive attitude achieve? I'm being realistic.
I used to go in to every season thinking City will win something, really positive mindset, 1 FA cup, 1 promotion and a Checkatrade is all I've got to show for it. Why have we never won the league after all my positive thinking?
And we would be desperate because as I said, we would only have 13 trade deals in the event of no deal. Deals with the likes of Iceland and Israel. We will be losing 27 trade deals giving us access to 57 countries.
The EU don't have as much at stake, they're losing 1 trade deal, and the fall out from that will be spread among 27 member states. I really can't believe that I have to explain that.

 

[1nilandwe...]

Thats the positive attitude i like to hear! In what way would we be desperate, the EU have just as much at stake as us... keeping no deal on the table will keep the pressure on them

As has been stated many times before, this is just not true. The UK will be entering negotiations to try and replace a trade deal with 27 other countries. The 27 countries of the EU will be trying to replace a trade deal with one.

The EU also will continue to have trade deals in place with countries all over the world. The UK will not.

The EU is very good at protecting it's own interests. Very good. They've been doing it for decades. They have been negotiating trade deals for decades.
The UK has not.

Ditto the USA.

We are huge underdogs in this one.

 

[shmmeee]

Thats the positive attitude i like to hear! In what way would we be desperate, the EU have just as much at stake as us... keeping no deal on the table will keep the pressure on them

You worked out why Boris gave the EU everything they wanted over NI for the WA yet? After saying no Conservative PM could sign up to it?

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

You worked out why Boris gave the EU everything they wanted over NI for the WA yet? After saying no Conservative PM could sign up to it?

You stopped crying yet?

 

[shmmeee]

As has been stated many times before, this is just not true. The UK will be entering negotiations to try and replace a trade deal with 27 other countries. The 27 countries of the EU will be trying to replace a trade deal with one.

The EU also will continue to have trade deals in place with countries all over the world. The UK will not.

The EU is very good at protecting it's own interests. Very good. They've been doing it for decades. They have been negotiating trade deals for decades.
The UK has not.

Ditto the USA.

We are huge underdogs in this one.

We know what’ll happen. Johnson will either fuck industry then pile on the debt bailing them out to avoid recession or capitulate again to get a quick deal then get the press to tell the likes of Dom is was a massive success and no one will ask any questions.

 

[shmmeee]

You stopped crying yet?

I’ll give you a hint: we surrendered to the EU because we are a relatively tiny economy compared to their block.

You know, just like the US, just like China.

 

[Grendel]

what would a positive attitude achieve? I'm being realistic.
I used to go in to every season thinking City will win something, really positive mindset, 1 FA cup, 1 promotion and a Checkatrade is all I've got to show for it. Why have we never won the league after all my positive thinking?
And we would be desperate because as I said, we would only have 13 trade deals in the event of no deal. Deals with the likes of Iceland and Israel. We will be losing 27 trade deals giving us access to 57 countries.
The EU don't have as much at stake, they're losing 1 trade deal, and the fall out from that will be spread among 27 member states. I really can't believe that I have to explain that.

They are losing 12% of their GDP - losing that amount is colossal and most countries are financial basket cases already but will need extra funding to bridge that gap.

 

[westcountry_skyblue]

Keep calm and carry on!!

 

[shmmeee]

Keep calm and carry on!!

You realise that was propaganda designed to be distributed in the event of a wartime disaster like poison gas attack or bombing of a major city don’t you?

Not sure it’s the analogy you want for Boris’ trade negotiations even if it is quite apt.

 

[clint van damme]

They are losing 12% of their GDP - losing that amount is colossal and most countries are financial basket cases already but will need extra funding to bridge that gap.

I never said it won't hurt them. I linked a study many pages back that estimated something like 2.8m job losses in the EU and 1.6m in the UK.
Again, their losses are spread among 27 countries though obviously some countries, e.g Germany, will suffer more than others.
I hope signing a FTA with the EU will be as easy as some people think. Otherwise I fear we will get absolutely fucked over by the US.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

You stopped crying yet?

Not being funny but Northern Ireland’s place in the union is on very shakey ground thanks to this deal. Nationalist majority for the first time ever and I want to see what Mr One Nation Tory plans to do about it. Unlike Scotland he cannot reject a border poll if enough support exists

 

[shmmeee]

I never said it won't hurt them. I linked a study many pages back that estimated something like 2.8m job losses in the EU and 1.6m in the UK.
Again, their losses are spread among 27 countries though obviously some countries, e.g Germany, will suffer more than others.
I hope signing a FTA with the EU will be as easy as some people think. Otherwise I fear we will get absolutely fucked over by the US.

All the analysis I’ve read from trade experts says there’s two ways to get a trade deal as quick as we have to: basically no deal, or accept everything they demand.

 

[tisza]

Not being funny but Northern Ireland’s place in the union is on very shakey ground thanks to this deal. Nationalist majority for the first time ever and I want to see what Mr One Nation Tory plans to do about it. Unlike Scotland he cannot reject a border poll if enough support exists

Sketchy majority due to alliance candidate pacts in certain seats. Shouldn't be seen as a referendum on reunification.
No one is going to consider reuniting Ireland until they can find a way to appease/reassure large numbers of Unionists.
Also depends a lot on trade talks and what impact it has on NI economy. Would moderate some current opinions.
No side espec. EU wants a return to the violence.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Sketchy majority due to alliance candidate pacts in certain seats. Shouldn't be seen as a referendum on reunification.
No one is going to consider reuniting Ireland until they can find a way to appease/reassure large numbers of Unionists.
Also depends a lot on trade talks and what impact it has on NI economy. Would moderate some current opinions.
No side espec. EU wants a return to the violence.

It's more the opinion polling that shows massive shifts towards reunification the worse Brexit becomes. Seems pretty clear that NI is thrown under the bus by the current deal

 

[skybluetony176]

Sketchy majority due to alliance candidate pacts in certain seats. Shouldn't be seen as a referendum on reunification.
No one is going to consider reuniting Ireland until they can find a way to appease/reassure large numbers of Unionists.
Also depends a lot on trade talks and what impact it has on NI economy. Would moderate some current opinions.
No side espec. EU wants a return to the violence.

The next assembly elections will be the big tell.

 

[tisza]

The next assembly elections will be the big tell.

Yep. Don't see any seats being left uncontested in assembly elections

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

So great that stormont seems to be back up and running

 

[CCFCSteve]

All the analysis I’ve read from trade experts says there’s two ways to get a trade deal as quick as we have to: basically no deal, or accept everything they demand.

I’ve read that it will be a partial deal focussing on the key aspects before the end of the year (well that’s what the lady now in charge of the EU was indicating). The fact is there is likely to be some kind of extended standstill position/talks past the end of the year even if it’s not classed as formally extending the transition period (which is weighted in favour of the EU ie continued paying £12bn pa into the pot) for example keep elements as they are whilst talks continue and pay a smaller amount into the pot.

In addition Johnson plans to run talks with the EU and US (and other key trading partners) concurrently. Sensible move as it will mean if EU (or other nations such as US) push too hard we can choose to be more flexible or change tactics with the alternatives. The government has also already agreed 20 out of c50 standstill type agreements with other key trading partners.

This is why last year no deal would’ve been a disaster in my view ie lose leverage as everyone sees us as desperate. However as things stand, whilst not in an ideal position (ie not a massive trading block like the EU) we still have some leverage even though many Remainers don’t want to acknowledge/admit it....currently fifth/sixth largest economy and forecast to improve and can be more nimble/flexible than when negotiating as a block.

ps worst case scenario, if talks with other key trading nations turn to shit, we could still always agree a CU with the EU. That’s what I never understood about labour/remainers wanting this as the starting position...why not just have it as a fall back ?

 

[Sick Boy]

I’ve read that it will be a partial deal focussing on the key aspects before the end of the year (well that’s what the lady now in charge of the EU was indicating). The fact is there is likely to be some kind of extended standstill position/talks past the end of the year even if it’s not classed as formally extending the transition period (which is weighted in favour of the EU ie continued paying £12bn pa into the pot) for example keep elements as they are whilst talks continue and pay a smaller amount into the pot.

In addition Johnson plans to run talks with the EU and US (and other key trading partners) concurrently. Sensible move as it will mean if EU (or other nations such as US) push too hard we can choose to be more flexible or change tactics with the alternatives. The government has also already agreed 20 out of c50 standstill type agreements with other key trading partners.

This is why last year no deal would’ve been a disaster in my view ie lose leverage as everyone sees us as desperate. However as things stand, whilst not in an ideal position (ie not a massive trading block like the EU) we still have some leverage even though many Remainers don’t want to acknowledge/admit it....currently fifth/sixth largest economy and forecast to improve and can be more nimble/flexible than when negotiating as a block.

ps worst case scenario, if talks with other key trading nations turn to shit, we could still always agree a CU with the EU. That’s what I never understood about labour/remainers wanting this as the starting position...why not just have it as a fall back ?

Against the likes of the USA and the EU, the UK has minimal leverage, I’m sorry to say.

Being nimble is not going to come into it, both are going to have a lot more clout and are going to majorly protect their own interests and will be aware that Britain is in a position of weakness.

If anything I imagine the EU will be more pragmatic than the USA, which will want to get as much from the UK as possible.

 

[CCFCSteve]

Against the likes of the USA and the EU, the UK has minimal leverage, I’m sorry to say.

Being nimble is not going to come into it, both are going to have a lot more clout and are going to majorly protect their own interests and will be aware that Britain is in a position of weakness.

If anything I imagine the EU will be more pragmatic than the USA, which will want to get as much from the UK as possible.

Being nimble and flexible is important though sick boy. What I meant is, for example, when the EU is trying to reach a trade agreement they have to consider the implications of no tariffs, quotas etc on each individual country and even regions within those countries. So, what might be fine for 26 nations could be detrimental to one country/region within a country, leading to a possible veto, delay or having to give way on other elements of the agreement.

The U.K. won’t have this issue so whilst I appreciate leverage is potentially (significantly) less due to our size in comparison with the block, this flexibility is beneficial in negotiations. Also there might well be elements of the current EU trade agreements that are currently detrimental to sectors, regions etc in the U.K, which we now have the chance to address.

I’m not for one minute suggesting negotiations will be plain sailing, however, I do see some of the positives as well as the negatives

 

[fatso]

Being nimble and flexible is important though sick boy. What I meant is, for example, when the EU is trying to reach a trade agreement they have to consider the implications of no tariffs, quotas etc on each individual country and even regions within those countries. So, what might be fine for 26 nations could be detrimental to one country/region within a country, leading to a possible veto, delay or having to give way on other elements of the agreement.

The U.K. won’t have this issue so whilst I appreciate leverage is potentially (significantly) less due to our size in comparison with the block, this flexibility is beneficial in negotiations. Also there might well be elements of the current EU trade agreements that are currently detrimental to sectors, regions etc in the U.K, which we now have the chance to address.

I’m not for one minute suggesting negotiations will be plain sailing, however, I do see some of the positives as well as the negatives

In which case a no deal Brexit may be preferable, as we are then free to negotiate with individual countries, without fear that another might veto any agreement purely for their own reasons.

 

[Sick Boy]

In which case a no deal Brexit may be preferable, as we are then free to negotiate with individual countries, without fear that another might veto any agreement purely for their own reasons.

Which individual countries are you talking about?