Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (181 Viewers)

[ccfc1234]

Globalization has made the spread possible and world governments proceeded in a hope for the best basis.
Far more cities needed shutting down and flights cancelling to prevent the spread. As always most world leaders were reactive not proactive in efforts to prevent the spread.

 

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[Liquid Gold]

But it's all relative. Flu also has a much higher mortality rate amongst the elderly and those with underlying health issues. The point being, the death rate across all age groups for flu is 0.05%-0.1% and for Coronavirus it is over 2% - i.e it is MUCH more deadly than flu, which is also much better understood and predictable.

In the US, 100,000 cases of flu results in around 15 deaths. 100,000 cases of Coronavirus it would be 2000.

Yes flu is more deadly in the old than the young but not nearly to the same degree.

AGE
DEATH RATE*
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities

 

[theferret]

Yes flu is more deadly in the old than the young but not nearly to the same degree.

AGE
DEATH RATE*
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities

Yes, but it doesn't escape the fact that overall Coronavirus is 20 x more deadly. The life of somebody over 80 is not worth any less than mine. I know that if I get it my chances of dying are very slim, but 2000 deaths for every 100,000 cases would be horrendous, so the actions of governments in trying to contain this are entirely sensible and in no way and overreaction as some suggest.

 

[Grendel]

Yes, but it doesn't escape the fact that overall Coronavirus is 20 x more deadly. The life of somebody over 80 is not worth any less than mine. I know that if I get it my chances of dying are very slim, but 2000 deaths for every 100,000 cases would be horrendous, so the actions of governments in trying to contain this are entirely sensible and in no way and overreaction as some suggest.

it isn’t it’s 4 times

 

[Skyblueweeman]

The longer uk cases remain relatively low the better. Let’s hope you’re right and the impact is minimal.

That re-infected Japanese lady is worrying though.

Yeah, I only found out about the re-infections yesterday. I guess no different to a normal cold or flu though. I'm sure if I've had both before, shaken them off and then got them not long after :-(

 

[theferret]

it isn’t it’s 4 times

No, it isn't. It is 20-40x. Since when has flu had a mortality rate of 0.5%?

So far this flu season, about 0.05% of people who caught the flu have died from the virus in the U.S., according to CDC data.

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.

 

[Skyblueweeman]

To me it is obvious there is more to this that what’s being said publicly.

Kind of disagree (respectfully). I know for a fact that there's stuff that's been unreported in the press as far as the UK goes.

That said, I think there's massive hyperbole on this. Whilst it's stronger than 'normal flu', symptons are similar and 500,000 people die annually from flu.

 

[Grendel]

No, it isn't. It is 20-40x. Since when has flu had a mortality rate of 0.5%?

So far this flu season, about 0.05% of people who caught the flu have died from the virus in the U.S., according to CDC data.

In the study published Feb. 18 in the China CDC Weekly, researchers found a death rate from COVID-19 to be around 2.3% in mainland China. That's much higher than the death rate linked to flu, which is typically around 0.1% in the U.S., according to The New York Times.

It is. The CMO has said these rates will be overstated as many will not report it who survive and to actually get an accurate number you need a controlled environment

The cruise ship rate was 0.4% of a more vulnerable demographic

 

[David O'Day]

It is. The CMO has said these rates will be overstated as many will not report it who survive and to actually get an accurate number you need a controlled environment

The cruise ship rate was 0.4% of a more vulnerable demographic

Also as the virus is relatively mild in most healthy adults lots of them won't have been to hospital. The medical experts agree it's a relatively mild but contagious virus. But that doesn't make a good story.

 

[theferret]

It is. The CMO has said these rates will be overstated as many will not report it who survive and to actually get an accurate number you need a controlled environment

The cruise ship rate was 0.4% of a more vulnerable demographic

It may well be overstated for the reason given, but equally you cannot declare that the mortality rate is '0.4%', citing the cruise ship as the only source of sample data - it is an incredibly small sample on which to make that assertion, especially as only 10 of the 700 cases has the patient fully recovered - with 4 deaths and 36 still critical/serious . The mortality rates are not fully understood and there are wide variations. In China it is now reported to be 3.5%, in Iran 11% but in Korea only 1%. There will be unreported cases, but not all that many given how tightly controlled the outbreaks are. Point is, we don't know, and at this stage I think the alarm is justified until we do. I am currently working for a Chinese company, and I've been having video conference calls with Chinese colleagues for the last month and let me tell you, the situation there was much worse than we were ever told.

This goes into detail regarding mortality rates for COVID-19

Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

 

[Flying Fokker]

it isn’t it’s 4 times

Correct. I read that stat. The bit I saw suggested flu = 0.5 per thousand and Covid19 = 2.0/1000 infected.

 

[theferret]

Correct. I read that stat. The bit I saw suggested flu = 0.5 per thousand and Covid19 = 2.0/1000 infected.

Not correct. It is 2/100 infected. Out by a magnitude of 10. The early estimate, following very detailed statistical analysis and models is 2%, so 20 x flu. The same happened with SARS, the WHO gave an early estimate of 3%, but it ended up being nearly 10%. This is because people calculate deaths at a specific point in time against cases that have been identified at that same given point - which is completely flawed because many of those cases are on-going and death can come up to 41 days after the symptoms first appear. In other words, it is very likely to be greater than 2% when the dust settles. All covered in the link above.

 

[David O'Day]

It may well be overstated for the reason given, but equally you cannot declare that the mortality rate is '0.4%', citing the cruise ship as the only source of sample data - it is an incredibly small sample on which to make that assertion, especially as only 10 of the 700 cases has the patient fully recovered - with 4 deaths and 36 still critical/serious . The mortality rates are not fully understood and there are wide variations. In China it is now reported to be 3.5%, in Iran 11% but in Korea only 1%. There will be unreported cases, but not all that many given how tightly controlled the outbreaks are. Point is, we don't know, and at this stage I think the alarm is justified until we do. I am currently working for a Chinese company, and I've been having video conference calls with Chinese colleagues for the last month and let me tell you, the situation there was much worse than we were ever told.

This goes into detail regarding mortality rates for COVID-19

Coronavirus Mortality Rate (COVID-19) - Worldometer

It's over a week out of date

 

[David O'Day]

Also you don't take into account the varying mortality rates per country that can ho from zero to 10% and are likely to do have conditions of habitation, underlying health of population and the standard of the healthcare system in that area.

You also fail to take into account the worldwide vaccination programmes against seasonal flu.

 

[theferret]

It's over a week out of date

No, it is updated by the hour: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The live data backs up entirely what was said in the section relating to death rates, so there is no significant update to that since it was published.

 

[Nick]

What about Ebola?

 

[David O'Day]

No, it is updated by the hour: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The live data backs up entirely what was said in the section relating to death rates, so there is no significant update to that since it was published.

That's a different link mate

 

[Irish Sky Blue]

Me too. Vaguely remember when I was a kid and being scared to death, loved the credits. Bought it on DVD years ago and watch it every now and then.

I was late teens when that was on but still found it scarey. I haven't seen it since it was first screened but can remember the opening credits with people collapsing at airports etc. I'll have to look it up. Has it aged well?

 

[Otis]

What about Ebola?

A poor man's Cyrille Regis.

 

[theferret]

That's a different link mate

It's the same website.

 

[Otis]

I was late teens when that was on but still found it scarey. I haven't seen it since it was first screened but can remember the opening credits with people collapsing at airports etc. I'll have to look it up. Has it aged well?

I hope so, cos I know I haven't.

 

[David O'Day]

It's the same website.

It's a different page it links to though, now you going ignore my other post?

 

[theferret]

Also you don't take into account the varying mortality rates per country that can ho from zero to 10% and are likely to do have conditions of habitation, underlying health of population and the standard of the healthcare system in that area.

You also fail to take into account the worldwide vaccination programmes against seasonal flu.

It's a different page it links to though, now you going ignore my other post?

Yeah, I was going to ignore it because it's utter bollocks tbf.

 

[David O'Day]

Yeah, I was going to ignore it because it's utter bollocks tbf.

It's bollocks to say you have to look at other factors to try and understand why Iran can have a 10% mortality rate ut other places a 0% RATE.

You're fucki g done here mate. You're a weirdo who likes to pretend they are smart on a website. Back to infowars you go

 

[David O'Day]

Everyone just ignore him has he is fucking clueless and does understand how viruses work. Probably thinks the earth is flat and Scotland isn't real.

Just smile and nod at him

 

[Skyblueweeman]

Hey Nick, can we add Medical Experts to our list of forum strong points please?

 

[theferret]

It's bollocks to say you have to look at other factors to try and understand why Iran can have a 10% mortality rate ut other places a 0% RATE.

You're fucki g done here mate. You're a weirdo who likes to pretend they are smart on a website. Back to infowars you go

Relax, i was jesting.

I'm genuinely not sure what your point is though. I was simply addressing the claim that COVID-19 has a mortality rate only 4 times that of flu. This is simply not the case.

As it stands, from closed cases, COVID-19 has a CFR of 7%. There will be variations by country of course, but no country has a 0% death rate in reality, because those countries either a. have very few cases or b. lots of cases that are on-going and not closed.

You can only work with the total data. What it suggests is that, ultimately it will probably be a 2-3% mortality rate, not allowing for possible future mutations. There was a report in the Lancet that suggested this, but it is early. Flu is 0.1%. Vaccinations will obviously limit the number of people who contract the illness, but won't impact on the mortality rates of those that do.

None of this is my data, I'm just repeating and linking to research by people far better qualified than me on the subject.

 

[David O'Day]

Hey Nick, can we add Medical Experts to our list of forum strong points please?

I'm no expert, you have to factor in other data when looking at the mortality rates of a virus. There are massive differences in the rates of say Iran and Singapore which are unlikely to be chance.

 

[Skyblueweeman]

I'm no expert, you have to factor in other data when looking at the mortality rates of a virus. There are massive differences in the rates of say Iran and Singapore which are unlikely to be chance.

Not a dig at you DoD. Just a light hearted take on the forums discussion ability.

 

[BornSlippySkyBlue]

What about Ebola?

Way more deadly, way less contagious. Hence it has always been contained (so far) as it isn’t spread by coughing and sneezing.

 

[fellatio_Martinez]

This aint no ordinary flu, it's..

 

[torchomatic]

I was late teens when that was on but still found it scarey. I haven't seen it since it was first screened but can remember the opening credits with people collapsing at airports etc. I'll have to look it up. Has it aged well?

First series is great, second OK, third is rubbish. Basically they had a tiny budget for the third series, so it was just like Emmerdale, concentrating on self sufficiency and that. I have them as video files, so if you want them on a memory stick, send me a PM.

 

[steve cooper]

The average mortality rate for people without pre-existing conditions in under 1%, if you are under 60 you can halve that figure. It's us 80+ year olds with all sorts of health issues that have to be really worried.

 

[Otis]

First series is great, second OK, third is rubbish. Basically they had a tiny budget for the third series, so it was just like Emmerdale, concentrating on self sufficiency and that. I have them as video files, so if you want them on a memory stick, send me a PM.

I would like to watch it all again, because I was in love with Carolyn Seymour.

 

[BornSlippySkyBlue]

The average mortality rate for people without pre-existing conditions in under 1%, if you are under 60 you can halve that figure. It's us 80+ year olds with all sorts of health issues that have to be really worried.

I like the way the mortality rate is kind of downplayed as ‘affecting the elderly and those with pre-existing conditions’ most. Which is fine if you aren’t elderly and don’t have a pre-existing condition. I guess those of us that do or are don’t matter as much!