Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (95 Viewers)

[shmmeee]

They're the right side of the curve though, unlike us. Our death rate is quite shocking when you compare to other countries.

We’re quite old and densely packed though aren’t we compared to a lot of other countries? Easy to self isolate in Bumfuck Louisiana when your closest neighbour is ten miles away. Would be interesting to see some of the denser states like New York plotted as their own country.

 

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[Grendel]

Kept it out of the main cities, able to take measures that "democracies" aren't willing to in terms of lockdowns, forced quarantining etc.

As I said to you as soon as Germany hits the 10 and goes over the trend will look worse than Italy which tells you something. What does this world league table tell you? Especially the far right column?

Coronavirus Update (Live): 200,099 Cases and 8,010 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

 

[SkyBlueCRJ]

US worryingly bending the wrong way.

Anyone know how long Italy have been in lockdown? Seems to be flattening out a bit there now.

I'm surprised the US cases are as low as they are. Whilst the country is spread out, high population areas such as LA and New York are ideal breading grounds for Covid-19.

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Oh it is, but bending the right way at least. As they’re the Western nation furthest ahead it’ll be interesting to see what impact their measures have and hopefully gives us some idea of what we can expect.

China basically flattened out around two weeks after full lockdown I think, question is can the less harsh regimes in the West flatten it too and by how much.

So our peak is only 2-3 weeks away before the numbers start to slow down? I don't get how its changed from 10 weeks before we hit the peak to 2-3 weeks? Im guessing its due to our measures speeding up

 

[torchomatic]

Well because of my situation (weakened immune system, having flu jab) I have been sent home to work from home for a while. I popped into Warwick Tescos this morning on the way back from dropping my nightmare off at school. Despite the fact we keep hearing "there is enough food for everyone" and that restrictions on bulk buying will be enforced, there wasn't any loo roll, kitchen towel, hand gel, hand wash, soup, tinned toms, pasta, rice, hardly any bread. The world has gone mad!

 

[SkyBlueCRJ]

So our peak is only 2-3 weeks away before the numbers start to slow down? I don't get how its changed from 10 weeks before we hit the peak to 2-3 weeks? Im guessing its due to our measures speeding up

I think that was before the government wanted to play guinea pig with the population.

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

I think that was before the government wanted to play guinea pig with the population.

Ahh so it was 10-12 weeks and these measures now would have been in place in a couple of weeks... but because we've stepped it up it has reduced the peak dramatically?

 

[Skybluefaz]

Half my fellow teachers are off and the rest of us are covering classes plus setting work for all those self isolating. The missus is now being asked to assign work on behalf of the teachers who are off. She has a colleague classified as weakened immune system so they have 12 weeks off which they are now boasting about as it effectively means no work till September.

Schools have got to shut for our collective sanity!

My wife is one of your lot and feels your pain. Massive respect to the teachers who are holding the strain off the NHS to an extent at the moment

 

[David O'Day]

I see the folk who can't read a graph properly are awake

 

[tisza]

They're the right side of the curve though, unlike us. Our death rate is quite shocking when you compare to other countries.

At some point how to factor in underlying health issues which are normally ranked poorly in UK.

 

[shmmeee]

So our peak is only 2-3 weeks away before the numbers start to slow down? I don't get how its changed from 10 weeks before we hit the peak to 2-3 weeks? Im guessing its due to our measures speeding up

We don’t know. It will depend how effective the measures are. There could be lots of mini peaks where we take measures off after and then put them back as it starts to rise again. So instead of one peak in ten weeks we get a few every few weeks.

The 2-3 weeks thing is the lag time between us doing something and seeing it’s impact on the numbers because that’s the incubation period of the virus I believe. That’s why I’m watching Italy with interest. If they can peak it doing less than China that’s a good sign. All up in the air though.

 

[Spurs 'City Away Kit' Kit]

You rekon its flattening? It still looks to be rising quite sharply

The graph is exponential (see how big the distance from 10-1000 is compared to 2000-3000), so even a slightly visible change to the direction is quite a big number

 

[shmmeee]

As I said to you as soon as Germany hits the 10 and goes over the trend will look worse than Italy which tells you something. What does this world league table tell you? Especially the far right column?

Coronavirus Update (Live): 200,099 Cases and 8,010 Deaths from COVID-19 Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

That’s not the right way to measure this. Here’s the author of the graph:

 

[fernandopartridge]

Only one reported case in Sheffield, which is mad for a big city like

Grendel's favourite graph updated #flatteningthepeak

The turn on the curve for the UK is in the right direction, another turn at that angle would be good

 

[shmmeee]

Only one reported case in Sheffield, which is mad for a big city like


The turn on the curve for the UK is in the right direction, another turn at that angle would be good

Three data points for a trend. If you look at other countries even China had days where the deaths barely increased then started shooting up again afterwards.

Considering we haven’t even really tried to contain it yet I’d be very surprised to see anything other than a continuation of the trend for another week or two.

 

[djr8369]

A better way?


Some interesting analysis and links. The “adaptive pulsing” idea is interesting and might be how life looks for the next several months.


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[shmmeee]

A better way?


Some interesting analysis and links. The “adaptive pulsing” idea is interesting and might be how life looks for the next several months.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

What worries me about this approach is surely you need extensive testing to see early when things are rising again. Relying on hospitalisations seems risky to me. Also whether people get more pissed off with off and on again than the certainty of always off. If people can be adult though I agree it’s the best plan.

 

[djr8369]

What worries me about this approach is surely you need extensive testing to see early when things are rising again. Relying on hospitalisations seems risky to me. Also whether people get more pissed off with off and on again than the certainty of always off. If people can be adult though I agree it’s the best plan.

I guess it’s like all approaches and what I said about the original government plan. Might be the best on paper but doesn’t mean it will survive contact with reality.

If you can get clear messaging out there and manage expectations there’s at least a chance people can be adults about it.


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[PVA]

I see the folk who can't read a graph properly are awake

Yes what time did you wake up?

 

[PVA]

That’s not the right way to measure this. Here’s the author of the graph:

But Grendel and David said we can't read graphs properly.

So you're telling me the guy who created the chart doesn't know how to read his own graphs?

 

[David O'Day]

Yes what time did you wake up?

If you are going to try and be funny at least be good at it.

 

[David O'Day]

But Grendel and David said we can't read graphs properly.

So you're telling me the guy who created the chart doesn't know how to read his own graphs?

Did you create it? Cool I can add makes duff graphs to the rap sheet.

The only purpose logarithmic axis scales for a linear serve is to make differing data seem similar.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

My wife is one of your lot and feels your pain. Massive respect to the teachers who are holding the strain off the NHS to an extent at the moment

Both my classes were down by about a third this morning. We are hanging on but we can’t keep it going for much longer. Easter holiday on the horizon at least.

 

[RegTheDonk]

Getting shopping for 3 elderly parents/in-laws (all with health issues) - set up a Sainsbury's home delivery account for my mum and stepfather. which accepted a payment for the service; it lets you place an order (took ages for them to do, bless - but showed them how it works) but then when you get to book a delivery slot it tells you that due to (unsurprising) high demand there are no delivery slots and no order and collect options from store. Naughty not having a statement at the beginning - and at this point they have already had your money for using their home delivery service. ?????

Also - a bit sad - my stepfather is adding bits to his online order, which he is (probably) never going to get. I bought him some cheese that they wanted, and he said - I've added that to the Sainsburys order, but we can use the 'extra!' (Don't think he's got it that his order won't materialise!)

That is sad H, wish people weren't so selfish, you should easily be able to get out and get them a weeks worth of supplies if these idiots didnt stockpile. There's no need.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

That is sad H, wish people weren't so selfish, you should easily be able to get out and get them a weeks worth of supplies if these idiots didnt stockpile. There's no need.

I’d appreciate them offering an amnesty for those who have hoarded and could give back some unopened non perishables.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Half my fellow teachers are off and the rest of us are covering classes plus setting work for all those self isolating. The missus is now being asked to assign work on behalf of the teachers who are off. She has a colleague classified as weakened immune system so they have 12 weeks off which they are now boasting about as it effectively means no work till September.

Schools have got to shut for our collective sanity!

Forgive me if this is ignorant or stupid, but if some of those teachers at home are just self-isolating as a precaution they're still able to work. Why aren't they being given the task of setting work for self-isolating kids/marking etc? Surely those in the school covering for them have enough to do looking after the kids?

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

More vaccine available for the rest of us.

Suspect like the flu jab, vaccine will only be given to the vulnerable.

That would be ok

 

[PVA]

If you are going to try and be funny at least be good at it.

Yeah your original quip was a real zinger mate, had us all in stitches.

 

[Grendel]

That’s not the right way to measure this. Here’s the author of the graph:

The point is the graph is designed to simulate a result and is pointless.

 

[shmmeee]

The point is the graph is designed to simulate a result and is pointless.

No it’s not and no it’s not. You just don’t understand what it’s for.

 

[PVA]

No it’s not and no it’s not. You just don’t understand what it’s for.

He's made his mind up and is sticking with it, because it completely goes against what he, and others, were arguing so strongly about last week.

 

[Grendel]

But Grendel and David said we can't read graphs properly.

So you're telling me the guy who created the chart doesn't know how to read his own graphs?

I’m saying he’s created a graph with the intention of trying to justify a theory - I said the on this wait until Germany exceeds 10 and it will look like its tending more than Italy which of course it isn’t

also why even reverence the aged population in Italy?

 

[Grendel]

No it’s not and no it’s not. You just don’t understand what it’s for.

Yes I do it’s to play with people like you

 

[RegTheDonk]

Forgive me if this is ignorant or stupid, but if some of those teachers at home are just self-isolating as a precaution they're still able to work. Why aren't they being given the task of setting work for self-isolating kids/marking etc? Surely those in the school covering for them have enough to do looking after the kids?

I agree. My grandkids go to a normal state school and a fair chunk of their homework is on line, using some portal where they set tasks and completion dates. A lot of it is referencing resources on line, rather than any new input in a classroom. There are already some lessons on there labelled "in case of closure" with a target date of a few months away, ready if they have to close.

I assume this all has to be marked and assessed by teachers using a computer. Perhaps not an option for all schools, but those that have this ability should ensure at home teachers still contribute. I get there would be no face-to-face learning, but the teachers self-isolating would presuably have access to the internet.

 

[Houchens Head]

When there is.... run for the hills!!

I won't have far to go, Otis. They're right outside my window! I cross the main road, walk a couple of hundred yards and start climbing!
As for running...…. :emoji_laughing::emoji_laughing::emoji_laughing: