Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (190 Viewers)

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I would have loved to have just got my estimated grades with some generosity with no exams and revision.

Will they be paying you overtime for working over Easter too?

No and we might be down to statutory pay.

 

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[Brighton Sky Blue]

What would you prefer?

I want us to all be in or all be out.

 

[skybluetony176]

Flightradar24: Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map

Talk about a fucking joke

Half of it’s probably cargo delivering toilet paper and pasta so the same dumb asses who have stocked up can continue to stock up and the other half is military personnel going back to their home countries ready to impose marshal law and shoot anybody seen walking the streets.

 

[Deleted member 4439]

Its not just the mortality rate though is it? It’s the R0, the incubation period, the hospitalisation rate and the lack of a vaccine.

Isn't that what I have just said?

 

[fernandopartridge]

Stepping up testing to 25,000 a day, it is obvious that if that is ramped up then confirmed cases will go up compared to when they were testing say 5,000.

Everything that is happening is reactive, proactive early testing might have helped stop the spread. It's a bit late now, rather than testing where the leak came from we're measuring how much water is being lost.

 

[David O'Day]

Flightradar24: Live Flight Tracker - Real-Time Flight Tracker Map

Talk about a fucking joke

Isn't that more to do with airlines having to use or lose their landing rights

 

[PVA]

*runs*

 

[NortonSkyBlue]

Isn't that more to do with airlines having to use or lose their landing rights

Another genius post from David! You may have noticed that there is something happening out there?

 

[David O'Day]

Another genius post from David! You may have noticed that there is something happening out there?

No I was talking why a lot the planes flying will still be flying.

If you had taken some time off from trying to noshoff Richard Branson you would not look so stupid.

 

[David O'Day]

*runs*

I was awaiting the return of the Piers Morgan graph.

 

[GaryMabbuttsLeftKnee]

Exactly.

Then what if (hopefully it doesn't happen) your son has it after you and your wife think you have had it. What if he gets a bit of a cough?

There's no way to know without testing every single person. Even then, if somebody tests negative they may catch it the day after.

What worries me is that these people on the TV aren't talking about days or weeks, on TV just now somebody was saying "this time next year we might be through the worst of it".

How does this happen in 2020?

Without meaning to put a dampener on it and be overly negative, if you read the Imperial College piece on it, they seem to be predicting 18 months. I am not saying that's right and I am sure the usual suspects will find someone who has said it will be done in 2 weeks. But people far more qualified in it than I am have managed to come to the conclusion that it will only be over when we have a vaccine. Perhaps not worth worrying about as there isn't a lot we can do, but worth preparing for.

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Without meaning to put a dampener on it and be overly negative, if you read the Imperial College piece on it, they seem to be predicting 18 months. I am not saying that's right and I am sure the usual suspects will find someone who has said it will be done in 2 weeks. But people far more qualified in it than I am have managed to come to the conclusion that it will only be over when we have a vaccine. Perhaps not worth worrying about as there isn't a lot we can do, but worth preparing for.

Like with China, yes there are no cases but has a large scale of immunity been built? If the restrictions are lifted there will surely be another outbreak therefore without a vaccine this could become a repetitive thing

 

[David O'Day]

Without meaning to put a dampener on it and be overly negative, if you read the Imperial College piece on it, they seem to be predicting 18 months. I am not saying that's right and I am sure the usual suspects will find someone who has said it will be done in 2 weeks. But people far more qualified in it than I am have managed to come to the conclusion that it will only be over when we have a vaccine. Perhaps not worth worrying about as there isn't a lot we can do, but worth preparing for.

Wasn't the imperial study plugging reported death rates into their flu pandemic simulation for transmission without intervention?

 

[David O'Day]

Like with China, yes there are no cases but has a large scale of immunity been built? If the restrictions are lifted there will surely be another outbreak therefore without a vaccine this could become a repetitive thing

You could see the restrictions in a country be lifted then reimposed in cycles until a vaccine is produced

 

[PVA]

I was awaiting the return of the Piers Morgan graph.

Just thought I'd keep you updated on how dire the situation is David.

 

[GaryMabbuttsLeftKnee]

Wasn't the imperial study plugging reported death rates into their flu pandemic simulation for transmission without intervention?

It was for both. It showed what it looked like it there was zero intervention and what happens if there was intervention. It gave you astronomical deaths with zero intervention and then the amount they reckon they could save with measures like isolation. The overall summary was that the only way it would be stopped would be via vaccine though, and it takes 14 months to test a vaccine to ensure there are no fatal side affects (no idea how they come up with 14 months?!)

 

[NortonSkyBlue]

No I was talking why a lot the planes flying will still be flying.

If you had taken some time off from trying to noshoff Richard Branson you would not look so stupid.

Looking stupid? You are managing that on your own.
Just finishing him off.

 

[djr8369]

You could see the restrictions in a country be lifted then reimposed in cycles until a vaccine is produced

Yes I posted about this the other day/

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[djr8369]

Yes I posted about this the other day/

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[steve cooper]

One possible positive is how long in reality a vaccine will take to become available. The timescale being talked about takes into account extensive testing and gaining approval to use it. But will all countries abide by the rules? or will some countries roll out a vaccine anyway in the next few months. Other countries would still have to be satisfied on the safety of a vaccine but would have a much better idea of effectiveness of various vaccines should this happen.

 

[Deleted member 4439]

You could see the restrictions in a country be lifted then reimposed in cycles until a vaccine is produced

Yes, as has been mentioned here, this is what China is doing now by lifting the lockdown. Medical workers are now leaving Wuhan as there are very few cases to deal with.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

I want us to all be in or all be out.

I’m sorry with the results?

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

I was awaiting the return of the Piers Morgan graph.

Am I missing something with the scale on the left hand side. You can’t change a scale half way up surely!!!??

 

[David O'Day]

Am I missing something with the scale on the left hand side. You can’t change a scale half way up surely!!!??

It's logarithmic, which is fine for non linear numbers but gives the impression of data points being similar when they are not

 

[David O'Day]

Looking stupid? You are managing that on your own.
Just finishing him off.

Mate you've had a mare with this and your alternative facts mumbling

 

[PVA]

Am I missing something with the scale on the left hand side. You can’t change a scale half way up surely!!!??

Oh no, not this again!

It's a logarithmic scale and is explained on the guy's twitter feed why he uses it. But basically:

"In the initial outbreak phase, a virus like this spreads exponentially not arithmetically, i.e a log scale is the natural way to track the spread"


Also...

The graph would be unreadable on a linear scale:

"2) If we show case numbers on a linear scale, it would look like UK, US etc have little to worry about: they’re down here and Italy is way up there! You’d also be asking readers to calculate an exponential curve in their head to see if two countries are on the same trajectory ???"

 

[Ring Of Steel]

Mate you've had a mare with this and your alternative facts mumbling

lol, says the biggest clown on here From day one its been non stop rubbish, herd immunity & a barrage of abuse at how pretty a graph does or doesn't look. Credibility shot to pieces.

 

[NortonSkyBlue]

Mate you've had a mare with this and your alternative facts mumbling

David,(me suppressing a smirk) flights are not happening becausing of slots being lost.
but I am having a mare? Dribble dribble David.
Q. Why do you look stupid David
A. Refer to above

 

[David O'Day]

David,(me suppressing a smirk) flights are not happening becausing of slots being lost.
but I am having a mare? Dribble dribble David.
Q. Why do you look stupid David
A. Refer to above

They were mate, the uk government wrote to the eu about it. It's a fact mate sorry but you've fucked this one up.

 

[Grendel]

Briefly from here:

1. We will be open for all of Easter under the same arrangements as the next few weeks.

2. Teachers are likely to be asked to provide grades for GCSE and A level students.

3. Due to the right to appeal being maintained we have been asked to estimate as high a grade as realistically possible.

I can’t describe how I feel at this moment but I have already bollocked students celebrating what is going on.

This is just a lottery system and I don’t see how it will work as universities will just be over subscribed

 

[David O'Day]

Oh no, not this again!

It's a logarithmic scale and is explained on the guy's twitter feed why he uses it. But basically:

"In the initial outbreak phase, a virus like this spreads exponentially not arithmetically, i.e a log scale is the natural way to track the spread"


Also...

The graph would be unreadable on a linear scale:

"2) If we show case numbers on a linear scale, it would look like UK, US etc have little to worry about: they’re down here and Italy is way up there! You’d also be asking readers to calculate an exponential curve in their head to see if two countries are on the same trajectory ???"

The exponential argument is mathematically nonsense and the idea that it would be too hard to read is saying I want people to read the graph the way I want them to.

The graph is done and luckily largely ignored by experts.

 

[PVA]

The exponential argument is mathematically nonsense and the idea that it would be too hard to read is saying I want people to read the graph the way I want them to.

Hahah the irony of this.

You are just reading the graph the way you want to. You're upset it doesn't back up your previous opinions.

You keep banging on about the scale but that does not mean the data is incorrect. We have more deaths at this stage (6 days after the 10th death) than Italy dead. You cannot dispute that regardless of how much you dislike the scale.

 

[NortonSkyBlue]

They were mate, the uk government wrote to the eu about it. It's a fact mate sorry but you've fucked this one up.

David, old chap, stand down. Flights are not happening because of potential loss of slots. Under normal flying circumstances yes I would agree but these are not normal circumstances. I am actually isolated in Riyadh until this virus thing is over and means that flights can resume.
You really shouldn't respond unless you know something more than the U.K. government sent a letter to the EU. You come off looking like the village idiot and we all know that is not the case.

 

[SkyBlueDom26]

Vaccine in six months 'improbable'

Prof Whitty tries to dampen hopes that a vaccine can be developed quickly to combat COVID-19.

"However much we would like there to be a vaccine riding to the rescue in six months time, currently - we think that's improbable," he says, frankly.

Improbable but not impossible, lets keep our fingers crossed

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

It's logarithmic, which is fine for non linear numbers but gives the impression of data points being similar when they are not

Ok I think I understand but it means Italy looks like it’s plateauing rather than increasing at an exponential rate at the moment