Not sure who that data is compiled or analysed, Track and trace doesn't work. Someone in a pub could spread it around but everyone is asymptomatic, takes it away and spreads it into a care home/workplace where someone shows symptoms and that would be classified as where the outbreak came from. I can understand how it could spread quickly and easily within a care home but how did it get in there in the first place? Has to be people from outside that environment bringing it in.
Spot on. I don’t think there can be any reliable data on actual transmission, although maybe reasonable guesstimates. All they can say is due to close proximity it’s riskier in some locations that others. For example even if there was an outbreak at work an infected individual might have caught it from an asymptomatic person on the bus on the way in or around someones house, at home, at the shop etc etc ?! Who knows for sure.
As I say you and others have hit the nail on the head but mentioning one of the biggest challenges here...the large proportion of asymptomatic cases. It’s a fucking nightmare !
Ps I’m saying all this as someone who wants the pubs/bars to stay open. Ideally for as long as possible but I’m also realistic. James O’Brien (who I’m not a fan of) was debating this earlier and I found myself agreeing with everything he was saying ie looking at the bigger picture the curfews are worth a go as neither the extremes of: back to a pre Covid free for all or total closure/lockdown which will cause huge jobs losses, mental health issues etc etc are palatable. So it’s got to be something inbetween, of which there are loads of options.
This is about reducing the risk of contagion in certain settings not eliminating it. Same as household mixing restrictions.
The arguments of ‘well everyone will just pile round someone’s house’ might be true but they’ll be breaking the law. That’s like saying there’s no point in a full lockdown removing household mixing because everyone will do it anyway. They might do but you hope they wouldn’t.
Only time will tell but i wouldn’t be surprised if further measures/restrictions are implemented in the coming weeks. I really do hope not though.