Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (106 Viewers)

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Ian1779

Ian1779

Well-Known Member
So where do people think they will end up Tier wise? Living in Northamptonshire I think we will be minimum Tier 2.
 
D

Deleted member 5849

Guest
Frankly, if we were meriting a total lockdown, we should have all been in Tier 3 to begin with anyway.
 
shmmeee

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
Interesting paper (off a retweet from my new favourite Tory MP), calculates infection fatality rate and nicely puts the “it’s not a risk” stuff to bed:


Here’s the money shot (also note how much safer the U.K. is compared to the US):

58276738-E1A4-4110-A109-1AA5C447AC40.jpeg


So across age groups it’s significantly more fatal to catch COVID than to get in a car accident or other accidents that cause death.

My new favourite Tory MP is Neil O’Brien after this thread:

 
C

CCFCSteve

Well-Known Member
shmmeee said:
My new favourite Tory MP is Neil O’Brien after this thread:

Click to expand...


Yeah, they were debating it on LBC (maajid nawas) yesterday so I had a look at the article and some of the stats. Let’s just say the actual data wasn’t quite as supportive as the article/Naawas suggested. That’s not to say it should be all discounted but it wasn't being accurately portrayed ie picking out certain death data for one week and comparing it to the 5 year average (and saying something like it was only 1000 deaths higher than normal - don’t quote me on that but it was something similar - that’s quite a lot for one week though !). Some data geek who didn’t necessarily agree with lockdowns pulled him up on it but he ignored the guys (correct) points.

Shame as there’s some genuine debate to be had about benefits or not of lockdowns (or certain elements of society being locked down ie hospitality, gyms etc) but this was just a sloppy/biased article

ps interesting IFR data, on the flip side I’d say that that the rates are still tiny for the young and that’s before (the rightly debated) pre existing conditions are dropped in. Not sure if/how asymptomatics are incorporated into the figures as well. Presume US is worse as they’re are far more obese people over there ! Harsh but probably fair !
 
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clint van damme

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
just seen some of the Oxford vaccine team being interviewed. Whenever I've seen or heard them being interviewed before they were very cautious, this time you could see they could hardly contain their excitement.
It's given me real optimism that the end of this is in sight albeit it will probably be well in to next year.

I can put up with this shit for a few more months if I know there's a return to normality on the horizon.
 
shmmeee

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
CCFCSteve said:
Yeah, they were debating it on LBC (maajid nawas) yesterday so I had a look at the article and some of the stats. Let’s just say the actual data wasn’t quite as supportive as the article/Naawas suggested. That’s not to say it should be all discounted but it wasn't being accurately portrayed ie picking out certain death data for one week and comparing it to the 5 year average (and saying something like it was only 1000 deaths higher than normal - don’t quote me on that but it was something similar - that’s quite a lot for one week though !). Some data geek who didn’t necessarily agree with lockdowns pulled him up on it but he ignored the guys (correct) points.

Shame as there’s some genuine debate to be had about benefits or not of lockdowns (or certain elements of society being locked down ie hospitality, gyms etc) but this was just a sloppy/biased article
Click to expand...

I’m just glad to see MPs calling out bad data.

Im all for debate, but I’m getting a little tired of the “the entire profession has it wrong, me, a guy on Twitter, has the *real* data” stuff. People like this guy, the Karol Sikora guy and Carl Henneghan, who either outright make nonsense up or push a very skewed version of the data (see the Danish mask study pushed by Henneghan in the Spectator recently, which never attempted to prove mask efficacy for preventing spread which is the main reason for a mask policy).

Let’s debate reality. We know it’s dangerous. We know deaths are going up. We know masks help prevent spread. Start from there.
 
clint van damme

clint van damme

Well-Known Member
shmmeee said:
I’m just glad to see MPs calling out bad data.

Im all for debate, but I’m getting a little tired of the “the entire profession has it wrong, me, a guy on Twitter, has the *real* data” stuff. People like this guy, the Karol Sikora guy and Carl Henneghan, who either outright make nonsense up or push a very skewed version of the data (see the Danish mask study pushed by Henneghan in the Spectator recently, which never attempted to prove mask efficacy for preventing spread which is the main reason for a mask policy).

Let’s debate reality. We know it’s dangerous. We know deaths are going up. We know masks help prevent spread. Start from there.
Click to expand...

Karol 'this will all be over by June' Sikora.
 
fernandopartridge

fernandopartridge

Well-Known Member
shmmeee said:
Interesting paper (off a retweet from my new favourite Tory MP), calculates infection fatality rate and nicely puts the “it’s not a risk” stuff to bed:


Here’s the money shot (also note how much safer the U.K. is compared to the US):

View attachment 17588


So across age groups it’s significantly more fatal to catch COVID than to get in a car accident or other accidents that cause death.

My new favourite Tory MP is Neil O’Brien after this thread:

Click to expand...
Didn't realise he was a Tory but looked at that earlier, he seems all a bit sane. Then saw that dickhead Redwood tweet
 
X

xcraigx

Well-Known Member
David O'Day said:
only half as many tests carried out as well so that'll be why there is a drop
Click to expand...

Looks to be the lowest amount of testing in around 3 months which is odd. Yesterday's was also lower than usual. % wise the amount of positive cases seems similar to the past couple of weeks.
 
shmmeee

shmmeee

Well-Known Member
xcraigx said:
Looks to be the lowest amount of testing in around 3 months which is odd. Yesterday's was also lower than usual. % wise the amount of positive cases seems similar to the past couple of weeks.
Click to expand...

Too tinfoil hatty to suggest intentional as we relax lockdown otherwise people would be asking WTF?
 
Sky Blue Pete

Sky Blue Pete

Well-Known Member
Kids school completely closed due to multiple positive tests in most years One of the mums says it’s only been household transmissions and not at school. No idea how she’d know. All pupils advised to get a test. That’s blue coat in Coventry
 
B

Brighton Sky Blue

Well-Known Member
Sky Blue Pete said:
Kids school completely closed due to multiple positive tests in most years One of the mums says it’s only been household transmissions and not at school. No idea how she’d know. All pupils advised to get a test. That’s blue coat in Coventry
Click to expand...

Knowing that school Pete it’ll be the kids ignoring the rules or taking pride in doing so. Mine still open but random chunks of year groups out so having to teach both here and those at home at the same time
 
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