Astute
Well-Known Member
And a happy new year to you Mr Duffy
The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (147 Viewers)
- Thread starter jimmyhillsfanclub
- Start date
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
Time will tell if it’s reasonable or not, it’s not been properly scrutinised or had the chance to be debated. The no deal threats were part of this and a way to create acceptance of the situation - I genuinely think Johnson would have extended the transition, why would he all of a sudden stopped doing major u-turns?
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
I agree, it’s Johnson’s trademark - the exact same thing happened with the withdrawal agreement.
This government, unlike May’s, was actually determined to leave without a deal. In the short term, it would’ve been more damaging to us than to the EU. Boris’ mandate was to deliver Brexit, this was his last chance to deliver to all the new Tory voters he was serious about Brexit.
Generally, your political capital is at its highest when first elected. The longer it took to deliver Brexit, the weaker Johnson becomes as a leader.
Astute
Well-Known Member
It doesn't make any difference so far. But nobody knows what could change in the future. I have 2 years 2 months 2 weeks 3 days before I join them. Doesn't seem that long ago when we spoke about it when there was 4 years to go.
Wife and youngest kids nearly home. They came here on 18th so kids could see me for Xmas. Due to go back on morning of 21st..... when France closed the borders with us. Had to travel with them to Newcastle to get Covid tests done, wait for results with crossing booked. They had to get to France within 72 hours of taking the tests. Just 60km to go out of an 800 mile journey.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Both sides did significant variance. It’s pretty much accepted that the German leader and her mentor wanted a deal for manufacturing and the pipsquek Macron was put back in his box. The divergence from the May deal is far more aligned to a harder Brexit - yet Mr Starmer rejected the softer May option which would have had options to remain in the customs union
Johnson would have gone no deal definitely
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
Just like how he’d rather have been ‘dead in a ditch’ than delay Brexit; it you believe that you’d believe anything, it’s always been bluster.
Grendel
Well-Known Member
he delayed Brexit as Mr Starmer and co blocked him in parliament - that ended up well for Labour
Astute
Well-Known Member
Macron is the second strongest leader out of the EU countries. He said that he would block any kind of agreement that didn't include the rights of the French fishermen to fish in UK water. Boris said we would reclaim UK water. Macron got his wish.
So how is this twisted for you to say Macron was put back in his box?
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Because he didn’t get his way over fishing in which he demanded zero concessions not just some rights. Veto would be a real clever action as that would have meant no rights to uk waters so I don’t get that comment at all.
He was the most unpopular leader of all Europe at the start of the pandemic. Ironically that saved him but again he is sliding in the polls. Ironically he is a more populist leader than Johnson
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
No deal was never going to happen. We aren’t going to not trade with our neighbours, that’s insanity. No deal would’ve just meant a delayed deal and a lot of economic carnage until we crawled back begging for scraps.
“short term damage” is an indicator of someone who doesn’t know what they’re on about. Economics doesn’t work like that, lost growth is lost forever. There is no credible world where WTO terms would’ve led to an increase in trade even in the future that would come close to outweighing the damage. It’s unicorns and fairy level thinking.
We are the First Nation in history to try and reduce trade with our neighbours for a very good reason: it’s a monumentally stupid idea.
Astute
Well-Known Member
So what can't French fishermen do today that they could do yesterday? What has changed? Why do the UK fishermen feel conned by Boris?
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Astute
Well-Known Member
If no deal was never going to happen why was I about the only person saying so and we were hearing how bad it was going to be after leaving without a deal?
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
In fairness we're not trying to reduce trade as such just introducing barriers to it, but like you say that is the opposite to every country in the world bar Trump's America.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
No, you were conflating the emergency provisions for no deal with an actual deal.
In the end we've gone from BRINO (Brexit in name only) to DINO (Deal in name only)
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
Aside from the fact that he’d lost a majority because he turned all Pol Pot and sacked off anyone with intelligence in his party.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
May never had an option for staying in the customs union. In fact she was the Tory who very much set the U.K. on that path. Out means out was her often repeated cry from the day she took office.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
You misunderstand. No deal isn’t a stable state. Any failure to get a deal by today would’ve just meant the eventual deal we would’ve got would’ve been negotiated from a position of weakness. The idea that we could trade with our closest neighbours on WTO terms forever is nonsense.
So we could’ve got to January with no deal either through right wing fruitloops getting high on their own supply or Johnson’s pure incompetence. But within months if not weeks they’d have been forced by reality to go running back with their tails between their legs asking for a deal.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
You could do the same for him claiming to be the only person on here who called it right all along. The German car industry will come to the rescue, French need to sell us cheese and wine etc.
Unfortunately I have to say he’s very typical of many (not all) brexiteers in that he’s spent the last four and a half years trying to rewrite what they said and history.
It’s about the NHS. Day after the result, it was never about the NHS. It’s about fishing. Day after the trade agreement was announced, fishing? What fishing?
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
I’ll just correct you on one point there. The deal was already negotiated from a position of weakness, we never held all the fabled cards. No deal would have just put us in an even greater position of weakness in negotiations. Even Boris understood this, which was why he got a deal and possibly why Cummings had to go. I think even despite all his “it has to be a no deal” posturing Farage understood this, hence him celebrating the deal and no longer wanting to talk about fishing.
Astute
Well-Known Member
How about showing the post and context of the last line.
Or is it better to keep having digs at me. I wonder
Astute
Well-Known Member
Ah different kinds if no deals now to make your previous comments correct. I am amazed.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
To be fair at one point on here you did announce that you were backing leave and then switched back again.How about showing the post and context of the last line.
Or is it better to keep having digs at me. I wonder
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
Not really, there’s plenty of historical examples, such as the break up of the USSR.
No Deal wouldn’t have increased trade with the EU, you’re right. Realistically, changing arrangements that have stood for 47 years would obviously cause some disruption whilst the market adjusts. Even with a ‘soft Brexit’, there’s still an increased amount of paperwork and bureaucracy added to UK-EU trade.
If you understand the Brexiteer’s arguments, they want to expand with non-EU nations in growing markets such as Asia. Our trade with Europe has been dropping since 1999 - even last year, 57% of our exports were to non-EU. The USA is our largest export and import market. Where the EU imposes some pretty hefty tariffs on some US goods on our behalf.
So, it makes sense on a level to increase trade globally with these markets - a constant theme Brexiteers is to reduce the reliance on the EU market. Within the EU, you cannot have an independent trade policy.
We have ‘no deal’ with the likes of the USA, China and yet everyone on this forum probably has goods that originate from these countries.
Trade with the EU is certainly not as easy as was the case before Brexit. However, with zero-tariff and zero-quota access, you can still trade with the EU freely - you just need customs declaration and some other measures for hauliers. Ultimately, people will adapt.
There’s certainly opportunities outside the EU. Will the government deliver on that? Who knows.
Mucca Mad Boys
Well-Known Member
You can travel for 90 days in a 180 day period visa free. That was good news for me as I like to travel a lot. Longer term I think I’ll apply for an Irish passport.
I imagine expats will have had to sign up for settled status within the EU as EU citizens had to remain in the UK.
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
I know an expat in Spain and he says that they’ve had to apply for residency, swap their U.K. driving license for a Spanish one. Things like that. He also said that the majority of retiree ex pats voted leave and are now complaining about having to jump through the hoops they know they voted for.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Yes people will adapt by passing the cost of admin on to customers. £7bn/year spent on form filling rather than maintaining yours and my standard or living.
Of course the share of other markets has been going up, that’s why they’re emerging markets and it’s been going up by definition while we’re in the EU. We will get much better terms as part of a large trading block than as a medium sized country.
We aren’t suddenly going to start buying fresh food or time sensitive parts of the supply chain from Australia or India. We’re still going to do most of our trade with the EU. Because. They’re. Our. Closest. Neighbours.
I understand the Brexiter arguments, that’s why I know they’re nonsense. They always talk very narrowly in terms of percentages and growth rather than absolutes to hide this nonsense. The fact of the matter is we’re all already poorer and will continue to get so even if we strike all these amazing trade deals (none of which so far have gone significantly above what we already had).
It’s the same blank slate theory as radical communism. Just blow it all up then think of the possibilities. It’s the delusion of someone detached from reality and incapable of understanding the complexity of the world.
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
I don't really care tbh, we're all entitled to change our mind or, dare I say it, even be wrong now and again but... the astonishing tedium of being told how right he is all the time, and is here with his objective unbiased view to show us all the light, hallelujah! grates somewhat...
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Think this is the key. We need to start seeing announcements of trade deals that are significantly better than the terms we had as members of the EU. And of course worth remembering that the EU are also going to be working to access emerging markets and do a trade deal.
Its not an emerging market but when we were in talks with Canada their media reported that a key consideration from their side was not to agree to anything with the UK that could impact their relationship with the EU as that was the priority. How many countries that we will be negotiating with will feel similarly?
The fact we're already at a stage where we're celebrating getting deals on the same terms we had as EU members and talking about advantages taking 50 or more years to become apparent is quite worrying.
D
Deleted member 4439
Guest
Given that we can drive in the EU with a UK license, why would they have to swap? (bit unfair, as this was only announced today). But, forgive me, I rather doubt that the majority of ex-pats voted to leave should they have had the intention to remain on EU soil. Just seems a rather lazy way to prop up the middle-class view of the working class and/or vote Brexit being stupid. Tiresome.
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chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Isn't there a limit (90 days?) to how long you can keep using a UK license in the EU? Government website says you need to change to a local license, should be up to date as it was published yesterday.
Driving in Europe: UK licence holders living in the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway or Switzerland
Driving licence exchange and rules for drivers living in the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway or Switzerland.
D
Deleted member 4439
Guest
Isn't there a limit (90 days?) to how long you can keep using a UK license in the EU? Government website says you need to change to a local license, should be up to date as it was published yesterday.
Driving in Europe: UK licence holders living in the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway or Switzerland
Driving licence exchange and rules for drivers living in the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway or Switzerland.www.gov.uk
Ah , good pont.
Though my other point stands
Grendel
Well-Known Member
Isn't there a limit (90 days?) to how long you can keep using a UK license in the EU? Government website says you need to change to a local license, should be up to date as it was published yesterday.
Driving in Europe: UK licence holders living in the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway or Switzerland
Driving licence exchange and rules for drivers living in the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway or Switzerland.
Seriously who cares?