The EU: In, out, shake it all about.... (130 Viewers)

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I was desperately trying to avoid this thread but it’s like people are trying to goad anyone who voted leave to get back involved !! it is lockdown and people are bored and want an argument I guess

Firstly, I think the above transcended Brexit to better fair NW. It did however show that maybe the EU never really gave a toss about Ireland/GFA even though it was used as a (if not the) major negotiation point of the withdrawal agreement and partially why we have issues in NI now. If peace in Ireland was a priority they would’ve at least called the Irish and UK governments before invoking article 16 (let alone followed proper procedure and given the proper notice !!!) That coupled with trying to bully AZ, threatening to block vaccine exports to the UK and then people like Macron saying AZ was quasi ineffective was more to do with some kind of vaccine rage, than Brexit. It did however show what the EU is like.

Highlighting the EU vaccine programme/numbers on a daily basis would be more Brexit related. This was something the EC insisted on controlling to the detriment of their individual members, however, I haven’t seen anyone bringing this up on a regular basis ? Nor did I see anyone shouting about us potentially joining trans pacific trade bloc (which if US joined as well could be significant), being forecast to grow well ahead of France in coming years (until I mentioned it the other day) etc etc. As indicated above most have probably left the thread as whichever side you were on, Brexit is done. If it’s a failure then at the next (or future) GE the public are within their rights to vote out Johnson for any lies or the mess he might’ve made of it. That’s what democracy is all about.

To answer Shmmeees question, are people who voted leave happy ?! Depends why they voted leave I guess. For me (a borderline leaver), it’s too early to say, it's going to take more than a month for everyone to get used to a new post brexit normal and depends if the NI position can be resolved amicably. Id always wanted close trading ties but probably also appreciated to have that we might have to accept uncontrolled freedom of movement which was a massive reason why people voted out. We’re just going to have to see how it pans out I guess.

In which case we’ve caused all this disruption and division for no good reason and for fundamentally no real difference to how things were. So what was the point?

 

---

[CCFCSteve]

I read something the other day about 7000 jobs in finance already moved to the EU in the last four years and the big players are looking at the next round of job moves earlier than expected. Project “fear” predicted 40000 lost U.K. jobs from the finance sector in London. Suddenly that’s looking tangible.

I knew as soon as I looked aybthe morning someone would’ve mentioned the City, with misinformation and/or context:

Firstly, since the vote the city has taken on thousands of additional people (sure I read 15k)
I think even the FT said no jobs will move on the back of the headline
The main bosses in the city aren’t willing to sign up to what the EU wants ie signing up to follow EU equivalence in future (it’s not just governments call)
The UK has already granted 17 areas of equivalence for EU, unsurprisingly the EU hasn’t granted any

That’s not to say the City doesn’t face some major challenges but ultimately it will depend on how much they/the government plan to diverge


Ps the NI/Ireland situation is the major concern for me. I’ve said before that if the protocol isn’t allowing ‘seemless’ trade between NI/rest of UK it will need sorting. Fingers crossed it can get resolved (if not Johnson and Gove do need to be held accountable)

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

I knew as soon as I looked aybthe morning someone would’ve mentioned the City, with misinformation and/or context:

Firstly, since the vote the city has taken on thousands of additional people (sure I read 15k)
I think even the FT said no jobs will move on the back of the headline
The main bosses in the city aren’t willing to sign up to what the EU wants ie signing up to follow EU equivalence in future (it’s not just governments call)
The UK has already granted 17 areas of equivalence for EU, unsurprisingly the EU hasn’t granted any

That’s not to say the City doesn’t face some major challenges but ultimately it will depend on how much they/the government plan to diverge


Ps the NI/Ireland situation is the major concern for me. I’ve said before that if the protocol isn’t allowing ‘seemless’ trade between NI/rest of UK it will need sorting. Fingers crossed it can get resolved (if not Johnson and Gove do need to be held accountable)

It will be sorted with a border poll and Irish reunification. That almost objectively looks like the answer.

 

[clint van damme]

I was desperately trying to avoid this thread but it’s like people are trying to goad anyone who voted leave to get back involved !! it is lockdown and people are bored and want an argument I guess

Firstly, I think the above transcended Brexit to better fair NW. It did however show that maybe the EU never really gave a toss about Ireland/GFA even though it was used as a (if not the) major negotiation point of the withdrawal agreement and partially why we have issues in NI now. If peace in Ireland was a priority they would’ve at least called the Irish and UK governments before invoking article 16 (let alone followed proper procedure and given the proper notice !!!) That coupled with trying to bully AZ, threatening to block vaccine exports to the UK and then people like Macron saying AZ was quasi ineffective was more to do with some kind of vaccine rage, than Brexit. It did however show what the EU is like.

Highlighting the EU vaccine programme/numbers on a daily basis would be more Brexit related. This was something the EC insisted on controlling to the detriment of their individual members, however, I haven’t seen anyone bringing this up on a regular basis ? Nor did I see anyone shouting about us potentially joining trans pacific trade bloc (which if US joined as well could be significant), being forecast to grow well ahead of France in coming years (until I mentioned it the other day) etc etc. As indicated above most have probably left the thread as whichever side you were on, Brexit is done. If it’s a failure then at the next (or future) GE the public are within their rights to vote out Johnson for any lies or the mess he might’ve made of it. That’s what democracy is all about.

To answer Shmmeees question, are people who voted leave happy ?! Depends why they voted leave I guess. For me (a borderline leaver), it’s too early to say, it's going to take more than a month for everyone to get used to a new post brexit normal and depends if the NI position can be resolved amicably. Id always wanted close trading ties but probably also appreciated to have that we might have to accept uncontrolled freedom of movement which was a massive reason why people voted out. We’re just going to have to see how it pans out I guess.

No Steve. We were promised a bright new dawn under Brexit. So far the signs aren't good and people are hilighted it.

If things improve, and it's early days yet, I'm sure people will be on pointing it out but at the minute most Brexit related news is bad.

Why would people hilight EU vaccination issues on a daily basis? We all acknowledged they'd screwed up.
We're not hilighting the same negatives on a daily basis we're hilighting different issues - the fishing industry, export issue, jobs being moved to Europe, the rank hypocrisy of the likes of Kate Hoey.

As for the trans Pacific trade bloc you haven't been paying attention, youre not the only one to have mentioned it but people have constantly provided evidence that countries do more trade with their nearest neighbours than those half way round the world with the exception of the big 3, China, the States and the EU.

It might suit you and others to ignore what's currently going on but its one of the biggest issues for decades and the biggest thread on this forum so people are going to comment

I hope leavers are on here very shortly saying I told you so because at the minute the post Brexit covid economic signs are extremely worrying

 

[Ian1779]

I was desperately trying to avoid this thread but it’s like people are trying to goad anyone who voted leave to get back involved !! it is lockdown and people are bored and want an argument I guess

Firstly, I think the above transcended Brexit to better fair NW. It did however show that maybe the EU never really gave a toss about Ireland/GFA even though it was used as a (if not the) major negotiation point of the withdrawal agreement and partially why we have issues in NI now. If peace in Ireland was a priority they would’ve at least called the Irish and UK governments before invoking article 16 (let alone followed proper procedure and given the proper notice !!!) That coupled with trying to bully AZ, threatening to block vaccine exports to the UK and then people like Macron saying AZ was quasi ineffective was more to do with some kind of vaccine rage, than Brexit. It did however show what the EU is like.

Highlighting the EU vaccine programme/numbers on a daily basis would be more Brexit related. This was something the EC insisted on controlling to the detriment of their individual members, however, I haven’t seen anyone bringing this up on a regular basis ? Nor did I see anyone shouting about us potentially joining trans pacific trade bloc (which if US joined as well could be significant), being forecast to grow well ahead of France in coming years (until I mentioned it the other day) etc etc. As indicated above most have probably left the thread as whichever side you were on, Brexit is done. If it’s a failure then at the next (or future) GE the public are within their rights to vote out Johnson for any lies or the mess he might’ve made of it. That’s what democracy is all about.

To answer Shmmeees question, are people who voted leave happy ?! Depends why they voted leave I guess. For me (a borderline leaver), it’s too early to say, it's going to take more than a month for everyone to get used to a new post brexit normal and depends if the NI position can be resolved amicably. Id always wanted close trading ties but probably also appreciated to have that we might have to accept uncontrolled freedom of movement which was a massive reason why people voted out. We’re just going to have to see how it pans out I guess.

By the time the next election comes round Johnson will be long gone. They will pin Cov-ID failings on him so not to taint the party image. If Brexit were to be a disaster long term it will be blamed on (in no particular order) - The EU, Starmer, Remainers, Corbyn, SNP, Marxists, Antifa, the French and Germans, Immigrants and the BBC. The party will disassociate themselves with any failure, and with a compliant media to back them up it will stick.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

I was desperately trying to avoid this thread but it’s like people are trying to goad anyone who voted leave to get back involved !! it is lockdown and people are bored and want an argument I guess

I wasn't really talking you... have always said, despite the fact you can annoy me with some of your views I can respect the way you actually argue. Not that I'm going to read the rest of your post, in case I change my mind

Some of the others, however... have been doing the goading.

 

[chiefdave]

I hope leavers are on here very shortly saying I told you so because at the minute the post Brexit covid economic signs are extremely worrying

Couldn't agree more with this. Would love to see post after post on here from leavers highlighting fantastic things that are happening due to Brexit.

At the moment we seem to be celebrating anything that isn't worse than it was as an EU member.

 

[CCFCSteve]

In which case we’ve caused all this disruption and division for no good reason and for fundamentally no real difference to how things were. So what was the point?

Just to bore people again (I hate going over old ground, as in my view its done) but some reasons I (and I guess others) considered:

• UKs budget contribution (pretty much based on GDP). How is this fair when we are ultimately a net importer of goods from the EU ie the EU countries/companies have a significant net benefit of having us in the single market and customs union ? Is the budget spent wisely (see below and 320m for HQ)
• CAP – Can anyone explain why this is a fair, moral or good use of a large proportion of the EUs budget ? (55-60bn 33% of annual budget). Also have a look at what we are proposing now with regard to tying in farming subs to environmental standards/targets and tell me that wont be a good thing.
• The EU has become a political organisation (which is wrong in my view, should be just a trading block), however, why is there never a consistent approach to real/significant issues of the day for example the wars or Germanys open border policy middle east migrants, or more recently when Covid started spreading (and borders were closed unilaterally). All of which will have to some extent wider implications for other EU countries. I just don’t see the benefit/value of that additional layer of “governance” and bureaucracy especially when push comes to shove, countries just do their own thing because ultimately we are very different countries. You end up with people like Junker and Von Der Leyan in charge even when they weren't very good, as some kind of German/French stitch up (VDL appointment potentially costing lives with interference in the vaccines)
• Migration – I have never felt comfortable with total/uncontrolled EU freedom of movement, even though it benefits me personally, when people, with possibly far more beneficial skills, from around the world have to go through a migration process, as I would expect to do if I moved abroad. I say this not as a racist, but as someone who's old team was half asian/indian. I also believe the high EU net migration numbers are likely to have suppressed wages for the lowest paid in the country for years, as well as causing addition challenges (can a country the size of ours really handle 300k net migration per annum – I know there were apparently temporary ‘stops’ available….good luck with that !) While most migrants worked, many were in low paid employment and there is no way public services, housing etc can keep up with those numbers.
• A combination of Camerons inept negotiations and an inability/arrogance from the EU to address any genuine concerns in run up to referendum. I’ve said before, if they had given Cameron even a perceived ability to better control EU migration (lets be honest our border controls shat !) ie allowing a temporary annual limit for five years, or a mechanism to recompense the UK (rebate), Remain would’ve won comfortably.
• I’d looked what happened when countries such as Ireland, France and Denmark had voted against the EU in referenda previously and as a democrat didn’t like what I saw. This was re-enforced after how they have behaved towards us.
• The key players in the EU want a closer union, we have always have been the black sheep on the outside. This day was coming, whether it was now or in the coming years.

I’ll gladly hold my hands up and admit I never fully considered the Ireland/NI issue or the wider ramifications for the Union (I’m a unionist at heart so this is whats probably bothering me the most). I also assumed, rightly or wrongly, that we would retain a close/seamless(ish) free trading relationship with the EU, which is why I am reserving judgement on the powers that be, to see if this can be delivered.

I honestly didn't want to get into the debate again, let alone write another long, dull post. These aren't points to argue over, I appreciate many will have different views on some or all of the above, I'm just sharing some of the considerations at the time as understandably (after five years !) people have forgotten.

I still hope we will make a success of it. If I'm wrong rest assured my brother and a fair few mates will gladly remind me its partly my fault !

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Just to bore people again (I hate going over old ground, as in my view its done) but some reasons I (and I guess others) considered:

• UKs budget contribution (pretty much based on GDP). How is this fair when we are ultimately a net importer of goods from the EU ie the EU countries/companies have a significant net benefit of having us in the single market and customs union ? Is the budget spent wisely (see below and 320m for HQ)
• CAP – Can anyone explain why this is a fair, moral or good use of a large proportion of the EUs budget ? (55-60bn 33% of annual budget). Also have a look at what we are proposing now with regard to tying in farming subs to environmental standards/targets and tell me that wont be a good thing.
• The EU has become a political organisation (which is wrong in my view, should be just a trading block), however, why is there never a consistent approach to real/significant issues of the day for example the wars or Germanys open border policy middle east migrants, or more recently when Covid started spreading (and borders were closed unilaterally). All of which will have to some extent wider implications for other EU countries. I just don’t see the benefit/value of that additional layer of “governance” and bureaucracy especially when push comes to shove, countries just do their own thing because ultimately we are very different countries. You end up with people like Junker and Von Der Leyan in charge even when they weren't very good, as some kind of German/French stitch up (VDL appointment potentially costing lives with interference in the vaccines)
• Migration – I have never felt comfortable with total/uncontrolled EU freedom of movement, even though it benefits me personally, when people, with possibly far more beneficial skills, from around the world have to go through a migration process, as I would expect to do if I moved abroad. I say this not as a racist, but as someone who's old team was half asian/indian. I also believe the high EU net migration numbers are likely to have suppressed wages for the lowest paid in the country for years, as well as causing addition challenges (can a country the size of ours really handle 300k net migration per annum – I know there were apparently temporary ‘stops’ available….good luck with that !) While most migrants worked, many were in low paid employment and there is no way public services, housing etc can keep up with those numbers.
• A combination of Camerons inept negotiations and an inability/arrogance from the EU to address any genuine concerns in run up to referendum. I’ve said before, if they had given Cameron even a perceived ability to better control EU migration (lets be honest our border controls shat !) ie allowing a temporary annual limit for five years, or a mechanism to recompense the UK (rebate), Remain would’ve won comfortably.
• I’d looked what happened when countries such as Ireland, France and Denmark had voted against the EU in referenda previously and as a democrat didn’t like what I saw. This was re-enforced after how they have behaved towards us.
• The key players in the EU want a closer union, we have always have been the black sheep on the outside. This day was coming, whether it was now or in the coming years.

I’ll gladly hold my hands up and admit I never fully considered the Ireland/NI issue or the wider ramifications for the Union (I’m a unionist at heart so this is whats probably bothering me the most). I also assumed, rightly or wrongly, that we would retain a close/seamless(ish) free trading relationship with the EU, which is why I am reserving judgement on the powers that be, to see if this can be delivered.

I honestly didn't want to get into the debate again, let alone write another long, dull post. These aren't points to argue over, I appreciate many will have different views on some or all of the above, I'm just sharing some of the considerations at the time as understandably (after five years !) people have forgotten.

I still hope we will make a success of it. If I'm wrong rest assured my brother and a fair few mates will gladly remind me its partly my fault !

I understand that Steve, I just don’t see fundamental changes happening, that leads me to question what it was all done for. In my view the union is more important than Brexit and we will end up sacrificing the former for the latter. If we were going to drag every nation out then every nation should have voted for it.

Of course that can’t be changed now.

 

[CCFCSteve]

I wasn't really talking you... have always said, despite the fact you can annoy me with some of your views I can respect the way you actually argue. Not that I'm going to read the rest of your post, in case I change my mind

Some of the others, however... have been doing the goading.

Haha, I know you werent aiming it at me NW. I was joking about many on here almost goading leavers to get back on the thread (I can only assume that everyones missing the good old Brexit arguments !)

ps politically we (as well as me and a few others on here) probably aren't as far away people might imagine. I'm just can’t help but be devils advocate sometimes and end up having to stick up for stuff I maybe don't even wholeheartedly believe in because there's so much misinformation around and people sometimes forget there are usually some fair points on both sides of the argument

 

[clint van damme]

Just to bore people again (I hate going over old ground, as in my view its done) but some reasons I (and I guess others) considered:

• UKs budget contribution (pretty much based on GDP). How is this fair when we are ultimately a net importer of goods from the EU ie the EU countries/companies have a significant net benefit of having us in the single market and customs union ? Is the budget spent wisely (see below and 320m for HQ)
• CAP – Can anyone explain why this is a fair, moral or good use of a large proportion of the EUs budget ? (55-60bn 33% of annual budget). Also have a look at what we are proposing now with regard to tying in farming subs to environmental standards/targets and tell me that wont be a good thing.
• The EU has become a political organisation (which is wrong in my view, should be just a trading block), however, why is there never a consistent approach to real/significant issues of the day for example the wars or Germanys open border policy middle east migrants, or more recently when Covid started spreading (and borders were closed unilaterally). All of which will have to some extent wider implications for other EU countries. I just don’t see the benefit/value of that additional layer of “governance” and bureaucracy especially when push comes to shove, countries just do their own thing because ultimately we are very different countries. You end up with people like Junker and Von Der Leyan in charge even when they weren't very good, as some kind of German/French stitch up (VDL appointment potentially costing lives with interference in the vaccines)
• Migration – I have never felt comfortable with total/uncontrolled EU freedom of movement, even though it benefits me personally, when people, with possibly far more beneficial skills, from around the world have to go through a migration process, as I would expect to do if I moved abroad. I say this not as a racist, but as someone who's old team was half asian/indian. I also believe the high EU net migration numbers are likely to have suppressed wages for the lowest paid in the country for years, as well as causing addition challenges (can a country the size of ours really handle 300k net migration per annum – I know there were apparently temporary ‘stops’ available….good luck with that !) While most migrants worked, many were in low paid employment and there is no way public services, housing etc can keep up with those numbers.
• A combination of Camerons inept negotiations and an inability/arrogance from the EU to address any genuine concerns in run up to referendum. I’ve said before, if they had given Cameron even a perceived ability to better control EU migration (lets be honest our border controls shat !) ie allowing a temporary annual limit for five years, or a mechanism to recompense the UK (rebate), Remain would’ve won comfortably.
• I’d looked what happened when countries such as Ireland, France and Denmark had voted against the EU in referenda previously and as a democrat didn’t like what I saw. This was re-enforced after how they have behaved towards us.
• The key players in the EU want a closer union, we have always have been the black sheep on the outside. This day was coming, whether it was now or in the coming years.

I’ll gladly hold my hands up and admit I never fully considered the Ireland/NI issue or the wider ramifications for the Union (I’m a unionist at heart so this is whats probably bothering me the most). I also assumed, rightly or wrongly, that we would retain a close/seamless(ish) free trading relationship with the EU, which is why I am reserving judgement on the powers that be, to see if this can be delivered.

I honestly didn't want to get into the debate again, let alone write another long, dull post. These aren't points to argue over, I appreciate many will have different views on some or all of the above, I'm just sharing some of the considerations at the time as understandably (after five years !) people have forgotten.

I still hope we will make a success of it. If I'm wrong rest assured my brother and a fair few mates will gladly remind me its partly my fault !

You've listed a lot of negatives there Steve that many if us wouldn't argue with. But I still think we should have stayed in.
I said on more than one occasion that would be the lesser of 2 evils.

I think you're right to some extent about wage suppression (Though there are some strong arguments to the contrary) but I would be amazed if that changes under Tories despite Johnson's levelling up claims.

George Monbiot is an arch remainer and environmentalist and a huge critic of CAP but again he doesn't think the UK will come up with anything better.

But the politicians really need to deliver on these types of issues and should be held to account if they don't.

At least you've tried to make some salient points rather than just wibbling something about Corbyn.

 

[SBT]

I think it's silly to expect huge economic shifts that could prove either side right or wrong when we're what, six weeks into Brexit proper? It was a generational question and it will likely take generations to see the effects.

The only people I would expect to be satisfied with Brexit's results already are those who just didn't like the EU/Europe/Europeans on a personal level and just wanted them gone no matter what. A perfectly legitimate reason for voting Leave after all, many would argue. But it was never supposed to be about that - wasn't it?

 

[skybluetony176]

I was desperately trying to avoid this thread but it’s like people are trying to goad anyone who voted leave to get back involved !! it is lockdown and people are bored and want an argument I guess

Firstly, I think the above transcended Brexit to better fair NW. It did however show that maybe the EU never really gave a toss about Ireland/GFA even though it was used as a (if not the) major negotiation point of the withdrawal agreement and partially why we have issues in NI now. If peace in Ireland was a priority they would’ve at least called the Irish and UK governments before invoking article 16 (let alone followed proper procedure and given the proper notice !!!) That coupled with trying to bully AZ, threatening to block vaccine exports to the UK and then people like Macron saying AZ was quasi ineffective was more to do with some kind of vaccine rage, than Brexit. It did however show what the EU is like.

Highlighting the EU vaccine programme/numbers on a daily basis would be more Brexit related. This was something the EC insisted on controlling to the detriment of their individual members, however, I haven’t seen anyone bringing this up on a regular basis ? Nor did I see anyone shouting about us potentially joining trans pacific trade bloc (which if US joined as well could be significant), being forecast to grow well ahead of France in coming years (until I mentioned it the other day) etc etc. As indicated above most have probably left the thread as whichever side you were on, Brexit is done. If it’s a failure then at the next (or future) GE the public are within their rights to vote out Johnson for any lies or the mess he might’ve made of it. That’s what democracy is all about.

To answer Shmmeees question, are people who voted leave happy ?! Depends why they voted leave I guess. For me (a borderline leaver), it’s too early to say, it's going to take more than a month for everyone to get used to a new post brexit normal and depends if the NI position can be resolved amicably. Id always wanted close trading ties but probably also appreciated to have that we might have to accept uncontrolled freedom of movement which was a massive reason why people voted out. We’re just going to have to see how it pans out I guess.

EU membership was the single largest tool in allowing the GFA to happen. There’s no getting away from that. Take EU membership away it causes issues. There’s no getting away from that. We elected to leave the EU, we were not kicked out. There’s no getting away from that. Cause and effect. It’s all on us.

 

[shmmeee]

Got to be honest, while intellectually I can see some of the points with the problems with the EU (though still wonder why we couldn’t use our power to change then rather than in many cases re-enforcing them), things like CAP never impacted my daily life. The fact I can’t travel visa free, food prices, the general health of the economy, these things make a tangible difference to me.

 

[skybluetony176]

Just to bore people again (I hate going over old ground, as in my view its done) but some reasons I (and I guess others) considered:

• UKs budget contribution (pretty much based on GDP). How is this fair when we are ultimately a net importer of goods from the EU ie the EU countries/companies have a significant net benefit of having us in the single market and customs union ? Is the budget spent wisely (see below and 320m for HQ)
• CAP – Can anyone explain why this is a fair, moral or good use of a large proportion of the EUs budget ? (55-60bn 33% of annual budget). Also have a look at what we are proposing now with regard to tying in farming subs to environmental standards/targets and tell me that wont be a good thing.
• The EU has become a political organisation (which is wrong in my view, should be just a trading block), however, why is there never a consistent approach to real/significant issues of the day for example the wars or Germanys open border policy middle east migrants, or more recently when Covid started spreading (and borders were closed unilaterally). All of which will have to some extent wider implications for other EU countries. I just don’t see the benefit/value of that additional layer of “governance” and bureaucracy especially when push comes to shove, countries just do their own thing because ultimately we are very different countries. You end up with people like Junker and Von Der Leyan in charge even when they weren't very good, as some kind of German/French stitch up (VDL appointment potentially costing lives with interference in the vaccines)
• Migration – I have never felt comfortable with total/uncontrolled EU freedom of movement, even though it benefits me personally, when people, with possibly far more beneficial skills, from around the world have to go through a migration process, as I would expect to do if I moved abroad. I say this not as a racist, but as someone who's old team was half asian/indian. I also believe the high EU net migration numbers are likely to have suppressed wages for the lowest paid in the country for years, as well as causing addition challenges (can a country the size of ours really handle 300k net migration per annum – I know there were apparently temporary ‘stops’ available….good luck with that !) While most migrants worked, many were in low paid employment and there is no way public services, housing etc can keep up with those numbers.
• A combination of Camerons inept negotiations and an inability/arrogance from the EU to address any genuine concerns in run up to referendum. I’ve said before, if they had given Cameron even a perceived ability to better control EU migration (lets be honest our border controls shat !) ie allowing a temporary annual limit for five years, or a mechanism to recompense the UK (rebate), Remain would’ve won comfortably.
• I’d looked what happened when countries such as Ireland, France and Denmark had voted against the EU in referenda previously and as a democrat didn’t like what I saw. This was re-enforced after how they have behaved towards us.
• The key players in the EU want a closer union, we have always have been the black sheep on the outside. This day was coming, whether it was now or in the coming years.

I’ll gladly hold my hands up and admit I never fully considered the Ireland/NI issue or the wider ramifications for the Union (I’m a unionist at heart so this is whats probably bothering me the most). I also assumed, rightly or wrongly, that we would retain a close/seamless(ish) free trading relationship with the EU, which is why I am reserving judgement on the powers that be, to see if this can be delivered.

I honestly didn't want to get into the debate again, let alone write another long, dull post. These aren't points to argue over, I appreciate many will have different views on some or all of the above, I'm just sharing some of the considerations at the time as understandably (after five years !) people have forgotten.

I still hope we will make a success of it. If I'm wrong rest assured my brother and a fair few mates will gladly remind me its partly my fault !

EU membership was not holding our economy back, just the opposite, the size of our economy is one of the reasons we were one of the major contributors. Is the argument we were too successful economically as EU members?

CAP, I’m not even going to argue about. It’s full of issues. Didn’t warrant leaving. It warranted effective U.K. government and MEP’s to influence change to improve it. If we’d as spent as much time lobbying change to the CAP as we did non issues that made attractive headlines it could have been improved. As you point out we were one of the major contributors, that should have if the appetite and skill set been there given us a lot of influence.

We are still part of the trading block, we have a free trade agreement. The political side was necessary for things like alignment of standards etc that allowed free movement of goods in the truest sense of the word. If you want moving fish to the continent to be as easy as moving it around the U.K. you need political alignment. If you want to order of Amazon and not pay VAT on your doorstep having already paid it in the country of origin you need political alignment. Without that you have what we’ve been left with and that’s the reality of Brexit.

It’s an absolute myth to say that immigration was uncontrolled from the EU. The vast vast majority were coming here to work, do the jobs we don’t want to, grow the economy and be net contributors to the state. If there was no jobs the number of EU migrants would decline as a result, same as it growed when jobs are available. Being net contributors they were actually subsidising the state, unlike the many non doms who promoted Brexit and people like Dyson who have done their own form of Brexit since promoting it.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

I think it's silly to expect huge economic shifts that could prove either side right or wrong when we're what, six weeks into Brexit proper? It was a generational question and it will likely take generations to see the effects.

The only people I would expect to be satisfied with Brexit's results already are those who just didn't like the EU/Europe/Europeans on a personal level and just wanted them gone no matter what. A perfectly legitimate reason for voting Leave after all, many would argue. But it was never supposed to be about that - wasn't it?

You're right about it being a long term thing, but ask yourself if that's how it was put forward in campaigning? It wasn't. It was sold as being an immediate solution to problems like immigration and also would be economically prosperous from the outset as we held all the cards and would get better deals both with the EU and other nations.

First time we heard JRM talk about not seeing economic benefits for 50 years was after the vote had occurred. You'd have thought such a big caveat might have warranted a mention when people were making their minds up but seemingly not. All the guff about money to the EU on the side of a bus being spent on the NHS should've read "let's spend even more than that on bureaucracy instead" if it was to be anyway truthful.

Had leave said it would take time to see benefits I'd give them it. But they didn't - they freely let the impression be given the benefits would be immediate, so the fact people are comparing the situation immediately is entirely justified as that's how it was sold.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Other half’s brother works in logistics for a major chilled foods manufacturer and is saying that huge piles of food are getting wasted at depots and chucked into skips because it’s left outside for too long. Paperwork hasn’t been sorted so it’s kind of being made up on the fly now. Hauliers just leave food because they get fed up of waiting.

 

[skybluetony176]

Other half’s brother works in logistics for a major chilled foods manufacturer and is saying that huge piles of food are getting wasted at depots and chucked into skips because it’s left outside for too long. Paperwork hasn’t been sorted so it’s kind of being made up on the fly now. Hauliers just leave food because they get fed up of waiting.

You want to try getting a single pallet of anything to Ireland at the moment. Unless you’ve got a trailer load (or somewhere close to it) you’re waiting on groupage to fill a trailer and that is currently taking weeks. That’s how little is moving and it’s very damaging for small scale manufacturing who rely on sending single pallets of goods.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

You want to try getting a single pallet of anything to Ireland at the moment. Unless you’ve got a trailer load (or somewhere close to it) you’re waiting on groupage to fill a trailer and that is currently taking weeks. That’s how little is moving and it’s very damaging for small scale manufacturing who rely on sending single pallets of goods.

He calls up hauliers to check on deliveries and they say they just dump it for waiting too long. And bizarrely it’s stuff that was fine a few months ago

 

[SBT]

You're right about it being a long term thing, but ask yourself if that's how it was put forward in campaigning? It wasn't. It was sold as being an immediate solution to problems like immigration and also would be economically prosperous from the outset as we held all the cards and would get better deals both with the EU and other nations.

First time we heard JRM talk about not seeing economic benefits for 50 years was after the vote had occurred. You'd have thought such a big caveat might have warranted a mention when people were making their minds up but seemingly not. All the guff about money to the EU on the side of a bus being spent on the NHS should've read "let's spend even more than that on bureaucracy instead" if it was to be anyway truthful.

Had leave said it would take time to see benefits I'd give them it. But they didn't - they freely let the impression be given the benefits would be immediate, so the fact people are comparing the situation immediately is entirely justified as that's how it was sold.

Without trying to make the two sides sound equivalent, both the Leave and Remain campaigns were guilty of making dramatic (and incorrect) predictions about the immediate economic impact. Which only served to undercut the historic nature of the decision we were asked to make. The real impact of Brexit will go far beyond the next few years of NHS funding, fishing quotas, or Nissan plant production, but that was where both sides decided to fight their campaigns, and it's clear who was left convinced by that. There is an alternative, much more compelling debate to be had about the merits of us being in the EU, but I don't see it much on here or anywhere. Right now it's like watching the first quarter of a basketball game with each side going apeshit every time they score a point.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Without trying to make the two sides sound equivalent, both the Leave and Remain campaigns were guilty of making dramatic (and incorrect) predictions about the immediate economic impact. Which only served to undercut the historic nature of the decision we were asked to make. The real impact of Brexit will go far beyond the next few years of NHS funding, fishing quotas, or Nissan plant production, but that was where both sides decided to fight their campaigns, and it's clear who was left convinced by that. There is an alternative, much more compelling debate to be had about the merits of us being in the EU, but I don't see it much on here or anywhere. Right now it's like watching the first quarter of a basketball game with each side going apeshit every time they score a point.

But more of the remain predictions of immediate economic/logistical impacts etc have been far closer to the reality of what has happened immediately than those made by leave.

 

[shmmeee]

I have no idea what Euro derivative trading is, but line go down

 

[SBT]

But more of the remain predictions of immediate economic/logistical impacts etc have been far closer to the reality of what has happened immediately than those made by leave.

My point is that even if that turns out to be true, it wouldn't define Brexit's ultimate success or failure. Brexit can still become a catastrophic mistake, even if the next few quarters of growth are fine. It could still prove to be strategic brilliance, even if we go into a recession. Brexit's a long game, and we should take it seriously - I just don't see the point in treating it like something which will be wrapped up one way or the other by next earnings season.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

I have no idea what Euro derivative trading is,

Don't ever go there, just don't.

 

[shmmeee]

My point is that even if that turns out to be true, it wouldn't define Brexit's ultimate success or failure. Brexit can still become a catastrophic mistake, even if the next few quarters of growth are fine. It could still prove to be strategic brilliance, even if we go into a recession. Brexit's a long game, and we should take it seriously - I just don't see the point in treating it like something which will be wrapped up one way or the other by next earnings season.

This is why I’m both desperate to hear how we do this, and concerned we haven’t heard a serious proposal in five years (aside from a race to the bottom on tax and workers rights, which isn’t a win IMO).

We’ve given up our long standing way to punch above our weight in terms of being the nexus of financial and political power through our unique combination of soft access to the Yanks and huge power in the EU. What’s the new plan?

 

[skybluetony176]

This is why I’m both desperate to hear how we do this, and concerned we haven’t heard a serious proposal in five years (aside from a race to the bottom on tax and workers rights, which isn’t a win IMO).

We’ve given up our long standing way to punch above our weight in terms of being the nexus of financial and political power through our unique combination of soft access to the Yanks and huge power in the EU. What’s the new plan?

Fishing the already dangerously overfished and close to extinction blue fin tuna. Apparently thanks to Brexit we can sell it now.

What’s that you say...

...to where?

Japan is the biggest market in the world and we copied the EU’s home work and basically signed the deal we would have had anyway had we remained in the EU. Only had we remained our fishing industry would have still had access to its biggest market, a market so close you can get their by rubber dinghy with no training and swim it with training. Still, a fish that’s about to become to extinct from over fishing to the other side of the world. You’ve got to see the bigger picture sheeple.

 

[Ian1779]

 

[clint van damme]

There's a few comments under that post taking it far too seriously

 

[1nilandwe...]

Just to bore people again (I hate going over old ground, as in my view its done) but some reasons I (and I guess others) considered:

• UKs budget contribution (pretty much based on GDP). How is this fair when we are ultimately a net importer of goods from the EU ie the EU countries/companies have a significant net benefit of having us in the single market and customs union ? Is the budget spent wisely (see below and 320m for HQ)
• CAP – Can anyone explain why this is a fair, moral or good use of a large proportion of the EUs budget ? (55-60bn 33% of annual budget). Also have a look at what we are proposing now with regard to tying in farming subs to environmental standards/targets and tell me that wont be a good thing.
• The EU has become a political organisation (which is wrong in my view, should be just a trading block), however, why is there never a consistent approach to real/significant issues of the day for example the wars or Germanys open border policy middle east migrants, or more recently when Covid started spreading (and borders were closed unilaterally). All of which will have to some extent wider implications for other EU countries. I just don’t see the benefit/value of that additional layer of “governance” and bureaucracy especially when push comes to shove, countries just do their own thing because ultimately we are very different countries. You end up with people like Junker and Von Der Leyan in charge even when they weren't very good, as some kind of German/French stitch up (VDL appointment potentially costing lives with interference in the vaccines)
• Migration – I have never felt comfortable with total/uncontrolled EU freedom of movement, even though it benefits me personally, when people, with possibly far more beneficial skills, from around the world have to go through a migration process, as I would expect to do if I moved abroad. I say this not as a racist, but as someone who's old team was half asian/indian. I also believe the high EU net migration numbers are likely to have suppressed wages for the lowest paid in the country for years, as well as causing addition challenges (can a country the size of ours really handle 300k net migration per annum – I know there were apparently temporary ‘stops’ available….good luck with that !) While most migrants worked, many were in low paid employment and there is no way public services, housing etc can keep up with those numbers.
• A combination of Camerons inept negotiations and an inability/arrogance from the EU to address any genuine concerns in run up to referendum. I’ve said before, if they had given Cameron even a perceived ability to better control EU migration (lets be honest our border controls shat !) ie allowing a temporary annual limit for five years, or a mechanism to recompense the UK (rebate), Remain would’ve won comfortably.
• I’d looked what happened when countries such as Ireland, France and Denmark had voted against the EU in referenda previously and as a democrat didn’t like what I saw. This was re-enforced after how they have behaved towards us.
• The key players in the EU want a closer union, we have always have been the black sheep on the outside. This day was coming, whether it was now or in the coming years.

I’ll gladly hold my hands up and admit I never fully considered the Ireland/NI issue or the wider ramifications for the Union (I’m a unionist at heart so this is whats probably bothering me the most). I also assumed, rightly or wrongly, that we would retain a close/seamless(ish) free trading relationship with the EU, which is why I am reserving judgement on the powers that be, to see if this can be delivered.

I honestly didn't want to get into the debate again, let alone write another long, dull post. These aren't points to argue over, I appreciate many will have different views on some or all of the above, I'm just sharing some of the considerations at the time as understandably (after five years !) people have forgotten.

I still hope we will make a success of it. If I'm wrong rest assured my brother and a fair few mates will gladly remind me its partly my fault !

Should I shoot myself in the foot?

On the one hand, no.

On the other hand, I should consider...

My foot is pretty ugly.
I broke my big toe a few years ago and now it's misshapen.
Sometimes it smells and requires regular washing.
Shoes are expensive.
A disabled parking space would be nice.

 

[skybluetony176]

Should I shoot myself in the foot?

On the one hand, no.

On the other hand, I should consider...

My foot is pretty ugly.
I broke my big toe a few years ago and now it's misshapen.
Sometimes it smells and requires regular washing.
Shoes are expensive.
A disabled parking space would be nice.

You’ll be OK. Jacob Rees Mogg promised Brexit will mean cheaper footwear. In 50 years time.

 

[skybluetony176]

About sums it up

 

[skybluetony176]

In the fairytale land of Brexit, we’re trading with the world. It’s a fantasy | Brexit | The Guardian

The Tories – and much of the media – would have us believe we’re living in Shangri-la

amp.theguardian.com

He singles out the Sun but the Express’ headlines are in fantasy overdrive. You have to pinch yourself to make sure it’s not a spoof of the express. Although you could argue that the express is a spoof of a newspaper in the first place.

 

[skybluetony176]

Did I sleep longer than I thought last night? I swear today is supposed to be Valentines Day not April Fools Day

'Boris's Burrow tunnel' to Northern Ireland could get green light

The tunnel – which would be the same length as the one to France – could help unblock Brexit tensions

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[clint van damme]

Did I sleep longer than I thought last night? I swear today is supposed to be Valentines Day not April Fools Day

'Boris's Burrow tunnel' to Northern Ireland could get green light

The tunnel – which would be the same length as the one to France – could help unblock Brexit tensions

www.telegraph.co.uk

the tunnel took 5 years to build, I suggest these issues need ironing out long before then.

 

[chiefdave]

Did I sleep longer than I thought last night? I swear today is supposed to be Valentines Day not April Fools Day

'Boris's Burrow tunnel' to Northern Ireland could get green light

The tunnel – which would be the same length as the one to France – could help unblock Brexit tensions

www.telegraph.co.uk

Ignoring the practicalities how would this even help the border issue? You've still got to have a border somewhere.