Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (202 Viewers)

[SBAndy]

Think there's an issue with context here. You hear case numbers, hospital admissions and deaths and no matter how low it goes it still sounds pretty bad as we have nothing to compare it to. How many people know the equivalent figures for other viruses that we live with?

But before we can think about that we've got to stabilise numbers. We're not at the learn to live with it stage while every statistic used is going up.

Having looked at the data just now (albeit for the first time in a long time) the mild positive I would take is that in the last 2 weeks of May the recorded cases (by specimen date) shot up by 232%. Since then, that has softened in June and whilst it is still going up, it’s only been by 73%. However, admissions still rose by roughly 60% in both 2-week windows, inpatients up by 36% and ventilator use up by 56%.

The raw data under some of these metrics is fairly low and it’ll be interesting to see what does happen to the admissions/inpatients in the next 2-week period through until the end of June.

 

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[fernandopartridge]

Just so everyone is aware. Once we do come out of lockdown. We are likely to see a surge of RSV esp in younger children/babies. Due to not being exposed to everyday viruses.

My children have been at nursery since last July so I doubt that

 

[jordan210]

My children have been at nursery since last July so I doubt that

Just saying what the NHS and CDC in the states have both been briefing management.

 

[Sick Boy]

Good to see that they’re considering loosening restrictions for vaccinated people entering the country.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Think there's an issue with context here. You hear case numbers, hospital admissions and deaths and no matter how low it goes it still sounds pretty bad as we have nothing to compare it to. How many people know the equivalent figures for other viruses that we live with?

But before we can think about that we've got to stabilise numbers. We're not at the learn to live with it stage while every statistic used is going up.

I suppose I mean we need to define what success looks like.

 

[shmmeee]

I suppose I mean we need to define what success looks like.

I’d argue it looks like NHS capacity being back to pre pandemic levels.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Not if we continue with masks and social distancing

Why bother with vaccinating the entire adult population if the plan is to continue with those?

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

Good to see that they’re considering loosening restrictions for vaccinated people entering the country.

Irony that foreigners will have more freedom of movement that us.

 

[Sky_Blue_Dreamer]

With the masks it could be argued it'd be worth continuing with those like in the Far East just due to the air quality in cities and to reduce already existing diseases from high population density. Obv on a voluntary basis.

 

[Sick Boy]

Irony that foreigners will have more freedom of movement that us.

I expect by the end of July the Uk is will on the EU safe list or whatever it’s called.

 

[jordan210]

Great news. The vaccine and immune system work

 

[Saddlebrains]

Great news. The vaccine and immune system work

We know they do. That's why everyone's pissed off we aren't unlocking

 

[jordan210]

We know they do. That's why everyone's pissed off we aren't unlocking

Some in the thread seam quite happy we are not unlocking.........

 

[Nick]

Some in the thread seam quite happy we are not unlocking.........

Some won't want to go back to normal until nobody is ill ever anywhere.

 

[PVA]

Great news. The vaccine and immune system work

Mate you really need to check what you are posting before jumping to conclusions


Further on in that thread it suggests that it's more like 6k, not 53...

 

[jordan210]

Mate you really need to check what you are posting before jumping to conclusions


Further on in that thread it suggests that it's more like 6k, not 53...

Can only go by the confirmed numbers and not speculation.


but even if its 6k out of the 5m that have had the virus that is a very low number.

Would the number not also change quite drastically for the better. As lots of the data would have been collected before vaccine roll out ?

As the sample is 17 moths. week 27 what's June last year.

 

[PVA]

Can only go by the confirmed numbers and not speculation.


but even if its 6k out of the 5m that have had the virus that is a very low number.

Would the number not also change quite drastically for the better. As lots of the data would have been collected before vaccine roll out ?

As the sample is 17 moths. week 27 what's June last year.

Only 1226 cases were checked though. So you can't say it's only 53 cases.

That's like polling 100 people and if 50 say they will vote Tory you cant then say 'only 50 people are going to vote Tory at this election'

I agree the numbers are still small but you keep posting things without fully reading the data and jumping to the wrong conclusions

 

[jordan210]

Only 1226 cases were checked though. So you can't say it's only 53 cases.

That's like polling 100 people and if 50 say they will vote Tory you cant then say 'only 50 people are going to vote Tory at this election'

I agree the numbers are still small but you keep posting things without fully reading the data and jumping to the wrong conclusions

Maybe it would be useful for PHE to give us more data do go on. As it would depend on when those cases are from/ Also health condition of patients. As people with immune issues who have been fully vaccinated can also show little to no antibodies.

It's still amazing news that shows clearly both immune and vaccine are effective at stopping re infection.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Now passed 80% first jab, keep it going. 58% second

 

[jordan210]

Now passed 80% first jab, keep it going. 58% second

Brilliant news. Update from NHS digital is you can now check if your 2nd jab can be moved without having to cancel it straight away.

 

[hill83]

Brilliant news. Update from NHS digital is you can now check if your 2nd jab can be moved without having to cancel it straight away.

Just checked mine and there’s no other dates available at Stoneleigh.

 

[hill83]

Some in the thread seam quite happy we are not unlocking.........

Some won't want to go back to normal until nobody is ill ever anywhere.

Look, I’m desperate to get back to normal and basically have been for months anyway, but some people are genuinely worried. So stop being arseholes about it.

Mental health and all that when it suits.

 

[jordan210]

Look, I’m desperate to get back to normal and basically have been for months anyway, but some people are genuinely worried. So stop being arseholes about it.

Mental health and all that when it suits.

On the flip side. members on the thread have shot down any information that doesn't suite them without facts. So isn't being arseholes.

If they are worried fine. Come out and say it. But trying to disprove things or snide remarks would assume they are just pushing there own narrative.

 

[jordan210]

Just checked mine and there’s no other dates available at Stoneleigh.

Worth checking now and again. If you feel like a gamble you can cancel it and try and rebook at a different location.

But no your original booking could go in the time.

I risked it and moved forward 4 weeks. But for ages no other appointments other than my original showed.

 

[hill83]

On the flip side. members on the thread have shot down any information that doesn't suite them. So isn't being arseholes.

If they are worried fine. Come out and say it. But trying to disprove things or snide remarks would assume they are just pushing there own narrative.

Not getting into an argument about it.

 

[hill83]

Worth checking now and again. If you feel like a gamble you can cancel it and try and rebook at a different location.

But no your original booking could go in the time.

I risked it and moved forward 4 weeks. But for ages no other appointments other than my original showed.

I’ll try again in a few days. Not in a massive rush to be honest but my second jab is the day before my lads birthday so would rather have it a bit earlier incase it does hit me.

 

[CCFCSteve]

I'm not taking much comfort from the inpatient numbers to be honest, there's been a 23% rise in 2 weeks.

Desperately hoping that the increased cases and hospitalisations aren't going to lead to increased deaths but all metrics (cases, admissions, inpatients, ventilators) are increasing and we seem to just be hoping those increases stop.

That's a fair point but the problem is there's a desire, and need, to put figures out every day but the more accurate data takes time to collate. For example the headline hospital admissions figures are by date of reporting hence the issues with weekends but any expert will want it by date of admission which is a few days behind. They'll then want info like age, health conditions, vaccination status which all takes time to come through.

Im with Andy on this and have always focussed on PHE inpatient figures, mainly because the justification for restrictions is (was) making sure the NHS doesn’t get overwhelmed and hopefully going forward, can at least operate at near normal levels. Agree with you that even inpatient numbers are going up, which you’d expected during a wave/spike but hopefully they can be contained (and the increase won’t become exponential) with less severe admissions being released far quicker, avoiding the Covid inpatient build up of past waves

Logically, that’s what the vaccines should deliver if effective...and enough people have been jabbed !

 

[jordan210]

Not getting into an argument about it.

Im just saying. People are going to have different feelings about all this. Everyone needs to understand this and the snide remarks need to stop.

Mental health doesn't just effect people who are scared of covid. So for everyone sake. Maybe if people don't agree they post actually scientific facts. Not opinions. So it's a healthy debate. Not tit for tat.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Im with Andy on this and have always focussed on PHE inpatient figures, mainly because the justification for restrictions is (was) making sure the NHS doesn’t get overwhelmed and hopefully going forward, can at least operate at near normal levels. Agree with you that even inpatient numbers are going up, which you’d expected during a wave/spike but hopefully they can be contained (and the increase won’t become exponential) with less severe admissions being released far quicker, avoiding the Covid inpatient build up of past waves

Logically, that’s what the vaccines should deliver if effective...and enough people have been jabbed !

If those going through to hospital stays are mostly unvaccinated and in the category of 50+ then deaths will probably increase at least a bit. If they chose not to receive a vaccine I don’t really know what to say

 

[jordan210]

If those going through to hospital stays are mostly unvaccinated and in the category of 50+ then deaths will probably increase at least a bit. If they chose not to receive a vaccine I don’t really know what to say

You can look at the NHS data for deaths that shows ages, location: Statistics » COVID-19 Daily Deaths

Todays data showed 16. 14 of them over 60. Think the break down was 60-79 = 6 and 80+ = 8.

It doesn't show if they have a vaccine or not.

Also the NHS data is for England only and normally doesn't tally with the dashboard.

 

[hill83]

If they chose not to receive a vaccine I don’t really know what to say

“Though shit dickhead” will do.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

“Though shit dickhead” will do.

I have to watch my words in these here parts

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

On the flip side. members on the thread have shot down any information that doesn't suite them without facts. So isn't being arseholes.

If they are worried fine. Come out and say it. But trying to disprove things or snide remarks would assume they are just pushing there own narrative.

Mmmmm not quite right. People have challenged on both sides of the lockdown argument when people have used false information to back up their prejudice. That’s called debate

 

[SBAndy]

Im just saying. People are going to have different feelings about all this. Everyone needs to understand this and the snide remarks need to stop.

Mental health doesn't just effect people who are scared of covid. So for everyone sake. Maybe if people don't agree they post actually scientific facts. Not opinions. So it's a healthy debate. Not tit for tat.

Don’t know whether I’m captured under this, but I just feel like you’ve read a headline figure and are trying to base everything on that, rather than actually looking deeper into the data. Not being negative for the sake of it, just pointing out that it doesn’t fit your argument. For what it’s worth, I do feel like we’re almost at the point of having absolutely no reason to reopen but given the surge in infection it makes sense to be doubly sure that protection holds up.

The point on mental health is that we’ve heard plenty about the impact on MH of lockdown measures, continued restrictions, etc (see “suicides will peak again” type comments) but very little about those who feel there is still a threat out there. My dad, for example, is asthmatic and took things very seriously when it was mentioned that asthma sufferers were at greater risk. Then there’s no priority on vaccination and he - and I’m sure others - really felt that.

 

[jordan210]

Don’t know whether I’m captured under this, but I just feel like you’ve read a headline figure and are trying to base everything on that, rather than actually looking deeper into the data. Not being negative for the sake of it, just pointing out that it doesn’t fit your argument. For what it’s worth, I do feel like we’re almost at the point of having absolutely no reason to reopen but given the surge in infection it makes sense to be doubly sure that protection holds up.

The point on mental health is that we’ve heard plenty about the impact on MH of lockdown measures, continued restrictions, etc (see “suicides will peak again” type comments) but very little about those who feel there is still a threat out there. My dad, for example, is asthmatic and took things very seriously when it was mentioned that asthma sufferers were at greater risk. Then there’s no priority on vaccination and he - and I’m sure others - really felt that.

Just FYI no your not under this. If I have posted something you have come back with counter facts, figures and I appreciate that.

If someone has called me out I have tried to come back with more facts, figures and articles and I hope people appreciate that. even if they think I'm wrong.

My issue is with members who for some unknown reason just leave snide remarks under a post with no actual counter evidence. Just say lag or out of date data. Almost as if they know best.

I agree on the mental health front I think the issue has been the mixed messages from the gov and how the media has used this to almost playing people off against each other. asthmatic people really should have been a priority.

The constant scare stores cant help people who are feeling nervous. anyone who is concerned about the vax being labeled as an anti vaxer on the flip side.



Big picture wise I think there is going to need to be a lot of trust across the board to make people feel comfortable about the easing/ending of restrictions. If/when it happens.