I hope and think (maybe
) you’re right. There is no doubt the decision was made to allow higher transmission over the summer to try to avoid a massive winter peak when the nhs will naturally be more stretched. A lot of the wider world were saying it was a crazy but I always felt it seemed logical...although I’m obviously not a virologist !The key to the success of the decision will be the boosters being delivered quickly enough to best protect those at high risk who have waning immunity. Booster figures look relatively low at 25% but that’s over 12s so hopefully a larger proportion of those of higher risk have been jabbed again
It’s all about hospitalisations and deaths now, not case numbers. Inpatients will go up to some extent with case numbers but the vaccine has been doing it’s job so far as there have been approx 6-7k inpatients (in England) consistently for the past few weeks compared to 32k at peak.
Lockdowns will only suppress the transmission of the virus for a period so should only really be brought in if you are delaying transmission for a reason ie get more vaccines/boosters delivered or health service is at risk of being overwhelmed...otherwise it’s kind of just delaying the inevitable ie the spread. Hopefully we can avoid !
Ps I would mandate masks on public transport (especially the tube) and be suggesting any high risk WFH if transmission remains high over winter though
Rambling over
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