Coronavirus Thread (Off Topic, Politics) (133 Viewers)
- Thread starter BackRoomRummermill
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jordan210
Well-Known Member
was Just reading this full thread
Thread by @mugecevik on Thread Reader App
Thread by @mugecevik: Very interesting analyses about the virology of #Omicron, which may explain the faster spread of this variant. According to a new lab study, Omicron infects & multiplies ~70x faster than the D...…
threadreaderapp.com
matches up with the scientists from SA said
Also so people are aware Muge is a sage advisor
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Yeah, hopefully still subject to your immune response.
I don't want to get ahead of anything but the admissions data isn't yet showing any drastic jumps:
jimmyhillsfanclub
Well-Known Member
Very small sample really, but interesting none the less......also that nearly 10% of cases found in the boosted, which if you roll back approx 2 weeks to allow time for the "booster benefit"....Denmark had approx. 14% of population boosted at start of december.....so...err....
Nick
Administrator
There is also the psychological side of it, how many people would feel worse if they were told they had a "cold" or if they had something all over the news with people saying how deadly it is? That must impact things and hospitalisations too.
Even if you had exactly the same level of symptoms, just by the name of it people will be scared.
Even if you had exactly the same level of symptoms, just by the name of it people will be scared.
fernandopartridge
Well-Known Member
Stats Jamie is a bit of a bellend.
The vaccinated and boosted represent the people most at risk from symptomatic / severe infection anyway, yet he doesn't seem to weight for that in his assessment.
Nick
Administrator
I am sure Boris will do a press conference to get people scared and just happen to get something wrong or vague.
bezzer
Well-Known Member
Yes they are. My wife's an NHS Physio and she tests 3 times a week.
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Yep bang on. Last week I tested positive twice on lateral flow tests so had to cancel my work Xmas meal in Leeds. Took pcr to confirm the result and planned to miss an Albert hall concert, theatre musical, my anniversary trip tp Cornwall and finally the Stoke game. So was feeling pretty gutted and then started feeling poorly too that day.
Anyway pcr comes through as negative and then so does a lateral flow to check. Pretty bizarre when lft is supposed to be 99% accurate. Anyway psychosomatic symptoms are absolutely a thing
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Jenny harries seems to think figure will be huge over the next few days so let’s see
I can err on the side of caution etc, but when we have wild numbers thrown about like 200,00 cases already although no real stats to back this up and 1 million cases by Christmas, if in the end it pans out to nothing then again people will start disbelieving more and more.
Just to clarify, I am boosted, wear masks and work from home, just some of the rhetoric coming out from government makes me believe its just deflection from something else, wonder what that could be
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
LFT is nowhere near 99%, on average it can be as low as 50.
I don't know if you're joking here or not, but he has actually announced one for 5pm today.
Nick
Administrator
Which figure though?
chiefdave
Well-Known Member
Sadly Jethro has died of covid despite being vaccinated. According to the twitter scientists this means we all need to 'wake up' as its proof the vaccines don't work.
What is wrong with people? I don't think I've seen any claims that any vaccine, let alone the covid vaccine, is 100% effective.
What is wrong with people? I don't think I've seen any claims that any vaccine, let alone the covid vaccine, is 100% effective.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
If he died even when vaccinated he just wasn’t going to make it full stop
duffer
Well-Known Member
Whoa there, I'm not sure the logic for this quite holds up.
There are likely to be more vaccinated people with Omicron than non-vaccinated people, because there are significantly more people who've had the vaccination.
It also seems that the variant is far more effective at breaking through, hence the push for boosters.
This seems to be the accepted risk, high to low of getting infected:
Not vaccinated.
1 vaccination.
2 vaccinations.
2 vaccinations plus booster.
That's pretty straightforward, I'd argue.
As for the single study saying that the effects of Omicron are less severe, that also should be taken with caution.
It's a small study predominantly on young adults.
I'm not saying it's wrong, but the truth is that no one is sure, and by the time we do know how severe it is in a broader, older, European cohort, we may be too far down the road to do much about it...
Science | AAAS
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
Information from my friend that runs the leamington testing centre so I think he’s more likely to be correct
Nick
Administrator
Whoa there, I'm not sure the logic for this quite holds up.
There are likely to be more vaccinated people with Omicron than non-vaccinated people, because there are significantly more people who've had the vaccination.
It also seems that the variant is far more effective at breaking through, hence the push for boosters.
This seems to be the accepted risk, high to low of getting infected:
Not vaccinated.
1 vaccination.
2 vaccinations.
2 vaccinations plus booster.
That's pretty straightforward, I'd argue.
As for the single study saying that the effects of Omicron are less severe, that also should be taken with caution.
It's a small study predominantly on young adults.
I'm not saying it's wrong, but the truth is that no one is sure, and by the time we do know how severe it is in a broader, older, European cohort, we may be too far down the road to do much about it...
Science | AAAS
www.science.org
I was talking about spreading though.
duffer
Well-Known Member
Which is an entirely fair point, but we're obviously not the only country that is worried about it.
Not trusting politicians is one thing and I'd heartily recommend that.
There is a fair bit of science that suggests that it isn't just something Boris has conveniently made up though (again).
Wholeheartedly agree with you, however the science info coming out of SA, where this variant has seemingly come from, begs to damp down Boris and his claims
Earlsdon_Skyblue1
Well-Known Member
Lockdown here confirmed for another month, everything staying closed from 5pm until at least January 14th.
Shite.
Shite.
duffer
Well-Known Member
Same logic Nick, surely. More vaccinated people in the population to catch and spread it.
But unless there's anything I've missed, the chances of both catching and spreading the infection are reduced by vaccination and further reduced by boosters.
I won't spend all day on this today, but that's everything that the science tells us so far, I believe.
I'm happy to be corrected if there's reputable evidence anyone can point to that says otherwise.
duffer
Well-Known Member
Yes, but again, that's one study on a small sample of young adults.
And the numbers here are potentially very concerning. If it's really doubling every two days then within six weeks the numbers infected will be enormous.
Even if those impacted severely by the new variant are proportionally far less, as that study suggests, it's still going to be a huge burden.
Boris is a liar, that's given, but it doesn't mean the concerns should be disregarded, surely?
Don't think we should disregard anything, but if we look at it the other way from top down, our older population and those with underlying conditions were the first to get boosters and a lot maybe even the majority will be three jabbed now, and it will be the younger population that this spreads through
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
In uninfected people the tests correctly ruled out infection in 99.5% of people with covid-19-like symptoms and in 98.9% of those without.
Covid-19: Lateral flow tests are better at identifying people with symptoms, finds Cochrane review
Rapid antigen (lateral flow) tests are better at identifying covid-19 infection in people with symptoms than in those with none, although the diagnostic accuracy of different brands of tests varies widely, a Cochrane review has found.1 The review’s lead author criticised the UK government for...
skybluetony176
Well-Known Member
It’s the seatbelt argument again. Just because the majority of people that die in RTA’s are wearing a seatbelt doesn’t mean seatbelts don’t work. Seatbelt conformity is very high, wearing a seatbelt doesn’t cut your chances of being involved in an RTA it just reduces your risk of death. Death rates amongst non seatbelt wearers are much much higher it’s just that they’re a minority so overall deaths are lower compared to a vast majority.
duffer
Well-Known Member
was Just reading this full thread
Thread by @mugecevik on Thread Reader App
Thread by @mugecevik: Very interesting analyses about the virology of #Omicron, which may explain the faster spread of this variant. According to a new lab study, Omicron infects & multiplies ~70x faster than the D...…
matches up with the scientists from SA said
Also so people are aware Muge is a sage advisor
Indeed, and SAGE, of course, are the scientists modelling the numbers and recommending the current course of action.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
In uninfected people the tests correctly ruled out infection in 99.5% of people with covid-19-like symptoms and in 98.9% of those without.
Covid-19: Lateral flow tests are better at identifying people with symptoms, finds Cochrane review
Rapid antigen (lateral flow) tests are better at identifying covid-19 infection in people with symptoms than in those with none, although the diagnostic accuracy of different brands of tests varies widely, a Cochrane review has found.1 The review’s lead author criticised the UK government for...www.bmj.com
In my case the LFT was positive but the PCR negative
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
And somewhere between 60-80% for correctly calling other stuffIn uninfected people the tests correctly ruled out infection in 99.5% of people with covid-19-like symptoms and in 98.9% of those without.
Covid-19: Lateral flow tests are better at identifying people with symptoms, finds Cochrane review
Rapid antigen (lateral flow) tests are better at identifying covid-19 infection in people with symptoms than in those with none, although the diagnostic accuracy of different brands of tests varies widely, a Cochrane review has found.1 The review’s lead author criticised the UK government for...
Sky Blue Pete
Well-Known Member
And mine
duffer
Well-Known Member
Given even with a booster it's likely there will be a breakthrough in a significant percentage, it will hit the old too.
The point of vaccinating/boosting everyone is to slow the spread.
Even if only a very small percentage of young people are affected, it's still going to be potentially a very large number in hospital in a short space of time. That will break the NHS for everyone.
What's your solution here Nick, would you just let it rip?