USSR invades Ukraine. (46 Viewers)
- Thread starter Alan Dugdales Moustache
- Start date
What makes you think Russia are winning?
They've failed with virtually every objective, particularly the taking of Kyiv, had planned to win the war in about 3 weeks, have run out of certain types of equipment and munitions, and have suffered huge losses in the process.
I'm not suggesting that Ukraine have had it easy, or that everything is rosy for them, or anything daft like that.
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Evo1883
Well-Known Member
Russia are in control of almost the entire Eastern side of Ukraine, and the black sea ports and are just about to win the donbass Region..
This all happened since the battles we saw much earlier on in Kiev.
If we were invaded and a country had all our Eastern towns and southern towns and cities, and had our troops in retreat, we wouldnt call that winning mate
Ukraine need to be reinforced much quicker than they are .. they are not winning at this moment in time , they appear to be struggling
Grendel
Well-Known Member
The bbc tone has changed. This morning for the first time there was acknowledgment this is a war Ukraine can’t win
Yes they have a big chunk of the East, but they had a big chunk of the North and got pushed back, suffering catastrophic losses.
They are running out of vehicles in the East. They've resorted to using tanks from 1960. Ukraine has a virtually unlimited supply of modern weapons.
They've lost more men in 3 months than they did in 9 years in the Afghan war.
Like I said, I'm not saying it's plain sailing for Ukraine, far from it.
The same BBC experts that you said had convinced you Kiev would fall in 7 days?
Evo1883
Well-Known Member
Ukraine war: Troops could quit Severodonetsk amid Russian advance - official
Russian forces are in part of Severodonetsk and could surround local troops, an official says.
www.bbc.co.uk
Ukraine war: Troops could quit Severodonetsk amid Russian advance - official
Russian forces are in part of Severodonetsk and could surround local troops, an official says.www.bbc.co.uk
That's just the nature of war. It ebs and flows.
Ofethey take that city then yes its a big victory for them - but at what cost?
From the Institute for the Study of War:
"Putin is now hurling men and munitions at the last remaining major population center in that oblast, Severodonetsk, as if taking it would win the war for the Kremlin. He is wrong. When the Battle of Severodonetsk ends, regardless of which side holds the city, the Russian offensive at the operational and strategic levels will likely have culminated, giving Ukraine the chance to restart its operational-level counteroffensives to push Russian forces back."
Grendel
Well-Known Member
this is a very good article
Ukraine Is in Worse Shape than You Think
Despite holding back the Russian invasion, Ukraine is facing major crises across many fronts
Alan Dugdales Moustache
Well-Known Member
Inevitable unfortunately without the essential military kit at their disposal.
I know this isn't going to go down well but I do think the threat of an attack from Russia
" the like of which ....blah blah blah " which has been interpreted as a nuclear threat has, in some ways, been what some Western nations want. For some, Ukraine isn't worth war with Russia, conventional or otherwise. Flying a Ukrainian flag outside the local town hall is all well and good but its as much as signal of our inability to give the Ukrainians what they really need, which are tanks, aircraft etc , as it is a rather guilt ridden " we're with you in this " gesture.
If , or rather when, Russia take what we all thought at the outset of this war was their end game we then enter a very dangerous phase in as much as I cannot see any reason why Russia would stop. What are we going to do then ? Run up bigger Ukrainian flags to show our support I suppose.
Sky_Blue_Dreamer
Well-Known Member
I agree entirely about Putin will not stop, and placating him with even an inch of Ukrainian territory would only embolden him further, as we saw with Crimea. He will send his agents, under the guise of 'separatists' into other regions and create a narrative that they want 'independence' and us it as an excuse to push further.
I admit I can only see this ending with Putin's death and either way we run the risk of war with Russia. Of course if that were to happen the combined forces against Russia could annihilate them, and hopefully China would remain neutral. There is also the fear that if pushed to the verge of defeat Russia may unleash nuclear war. I'm trying to convince myself there would be enough steps in the chain and some sense of preservation to prevent it, but even the best of us are unpredicatable creatures that often make stupid decisions. Add in a narcissistic God-complex and anything is possible and I wouldn't be confident enough to risk millions, potentially billions, of lives hoping he wasn't that mad.
But even if that happened and Russia was defeated in war, it would create instability in the country and chances are China would see it as an opportunity and start looking to take advantage of it. Then long term we're facing the same problems just a bit further to the East.
Sick Boy
Super Moderator
It’s more or less certain that if there was a threat to Russia they’d use nuclear weapons - pretty sure most nuclear powers would do
tisza
Well-Known Member
The obvious threat seems to be he is trying to create new pockets of Russian population - either by removing Ukrainians from the areas or fast tracking Russian citizenship for Ukrainians with any sort of Russian ancestry. He's creating new Donbass situations for the future and extending current gains into Moldova would complete the pattern.
Donbass and Luhansk weren't overwhelming Russian populations before 2014 - Ukrainians were leaving in large numbers after Russia got involved there.
duffer
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure that either side 'win' in the short term. My gut feel is that we'll enter a period of to and fro in the east of Ukraine, which may well last as long as Putin is in power. Ukraine won't quit, that's for sure.
The south I'm not so sure about, I think that might come down to logistics again - can Russia resupply quickly enough if Ukraine pushes back and defends in force?
How long Putin lasts maybe depends on how effective the sanctions are, and whether the Russian military leadership will tolerate endless ongoing losses of men and material.
I also don't see Russia trying to expand into anywhere else anytime soon. NATO and Finland in particular, are forewarned, and Russia's military is already overstretched and hurting. Opening another front would be absolute madness.
If Putin could just do the decent thing and die quickly, I think this could be resolved in reasonably short order.
All just mho, obviously, and depends very much on the west continuing to support Ukraine.
The south I'm not so sure about, I think that might come down to logistics again - can Russia resupply quickly enough if Ukraine pushes back and defends in force?
How long Putin lasts maybe depends on how effective the sanctions are, and whether the Russian military leadership will tolerate endless ongoing losses of men and material.
I also don't see Russia trying to expand into anywhere else anytime soon. NATO and Finland in particular, are forewarned, and Russia's military is already overstretched and hurting. Opening another front would be absolute madness.
If Putin could just do the decent thing and die quickly, I think this could be resolved in reasonably short order.
All just mho, obviously, and depends very much on the west continuing to support Ukraine.
I would say it’s at a stale mate right now, Russia gaining territory in places Ukraine in other places, I think once Ukraine receive mlrs and much heavier weapons than previously received I think they will start pushing back in the east, for now they should pull back to defensive lines in the Donbas and wait for reinforcements but what do I know I only play games.
Alan Dugdales Moustache
Well-Known Member
It is nothing short of ethnic cleansing . The fact that Russia is quite clearly ready to raze whole cities to the ground has made me wonder what on earth they're going to do with it once all traces of Ukraine has been eradicated. And that's what I think it's really all about : clearing away every aspect and trace of Ukraine . I hope sincerely this doesn't happen to Kiev.
Ukraine war: Troops could quit Severodonetsk amid Russian advance - official
Russian forces are in part of Severodonetsk and could surround local troops, an official says.www.bbc.co.uk
See...
Alan Dugdales Moustache
Well-Known Member
If the import of heavy weaponry from the US does happen and is a game changer I expect Putin to step up the threats against the West.
RegTheDonk
Well-Known Member
I'm super pleased their tactics seem to be working. Got to mindful of propaganda though. That twitter account is obviously pro-Ukraine so need to balance that against stuff that is coming from our own intel sources, which said Russia is making progress and could be in total control of the East in a couple of weeks. Lets hope the western kit/ammo will make a difference - when it arrives.
I still stand by my words, putin will be killed before launching a nuke
Alan Dugdales Moustache
Well-Known Member
I hope so. Of course , he will be ' retired ' and just not appear in public.
Novichok would be a fitting way for him to go if he was ultimately responsible for what happened in Salisbury.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
We have gone to some length to not trigger this man considering he sanctioned the use of poison on our soil. Wasn’t there even a Russian board game made about it?
tisza
Well-Known Member
Been destroying crop stores on farms as well - those they couldn't load onto rail and send back to Russia.
Food supplies and food inflation becoming a weapon.
Here dairy products up over 60%, meat products well over 50%. Supermarkets have been rationing some products for weeks now.
Brighton Sky Blue
Well-Known Member
Stealing all the food and burning the rest seems to be a curious way to liberate a country from the Nazis running it.
D
Deleted member 9744
Guest
I remember someone on here arguing that this war had absolutely nothing to do with us.
The UN should’ve been involved in this side of it by now. Not necessarily to protect us from inflationary increases, more places in Africa that are going to starve. An absolute disgrace