USSR invades Ukraine. (16 Viewers)

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Seems like an absolute rout in Lyman, the roads out as Russians tried to escape looks like a killing ground.

There's some fucking graphic footage coming out, some of which I really wish I hadn't seen

Move to Russia-they won’t be showing any of it you can bet

 

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[tisza]

Fair warning: this is pretty graphic in places if that’s not your thing.

Account of a conversation with a Ukrainian soldier from last night apparently.

“its a slaughter”

3:32pm, September 30th, San Francisco1:32am, October 1st, Eastern Ukraine Moved north. its a slaughter cut them off west of kreminna. got to go. Stay safe. Lyman totally cut off? I think so, engadg…

ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com

As in any conflict many of the most harrowing, heart breaking accounts come from the young, inexperienced combatants.
One of the reasons I still believe our WW1 poets are among our greatest.

But this is such a new form of covering a conflict.
Everywhere we are "bombarded" by these unofficial and official tiktoks/videos etc.
These drone videos of Russain machines and/or troops being killed have literally reduced it to a grotesque video game in so many ways.
Combatants can post unfiltered content (written and visual) straight from the front lines into people's lives.

 

[shmmeee]

As in any conflict many of the most harrowing, heart breaking accounts come from the young, inexperienced combatants.
One of the reasons I still believe our WW1 poets are among our greatest.

But this is such a new form of covering a conflict.
Everywhere we are "bombarded" by these unofficial and official tiktoks/videos etc.
These drone videos of Russain machines and/or troops being killed have literally reduced it to a grotesque video game in so many ways.
Combatants can post unfiltered content (written and visual) straight from the front lines into people's lives.

Must be the most filmed war ever. Once it’s all over and it’s easier to sort out there’s going to be some absolutely amazing documentaries

 

[PVA]

Rumours of a possible collapse of the front line around Kherson. Let's hope so.

 

[David O'Day]

Rumours of a possible collapse of the front line around Kherson. Let's hope so.

But surely we should of just let Putin have whatever he wanted?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

But surely we should of just let Putin have whatever he wanted?

He'd have given some of it back, scout's honour

 

[David O'Day]

He'd have given some of it back, scout's honour

once he's taken Kyiv yeah?

I mean that has got to happen soon right? Some short bloke from Cov today me it was days away.

 

[skybluetony176]

Rumours of a possible collapse of the front line around Kherson. Let's hope so.

I think they killed some high ranking Russian officer the other day who was in command of the area so not surprising if it’s falling even more apart at the seams in the area.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

once he's taken Kyiv yeah?

I mean that has got to happen soon right? Some short bloke from Cov today me it was days away.

Well just let him have the whole country really, then release some of the economic sanctions in exchange for a Borscht King or two outside Kyiv

 

[duffer]

Fair warning: this is pretty graphic in places if that’s not your thing.

Account of a conversation with a Ukrainian soldier from last night apparently.

“its a slaughter”

3:32pm, September 30th, San Francisco1:32am, October 1st, Eastern Ukraine Moved north. its a slaughter cut them off west of kreminna. got to go. Stay safe. Lyman totally cut off? I think so, engadg…

ukrainevolunteer297689472.wordpress.com

That blog is an interesting read. I think it's a US volunteer. One thing I can't make out is that he mentions Vietnam in a few posts. If he's served in Vietnam he'd have to be in his 70s by now!

 

[PVA]

This is really good

Interactive article from the FT

The 90km journey that changed the course of the war in Ukraine

 

[shmmeee]

Interesting times. Both Kherson front and the East seem to be moving quickly. Lots of chatter and little clarity other than the Ukrainians are definitely moving forwards.

I reckon the plan will be to grab as much land this month as possible, maybe the rest of the north east front and Kherson if they’re lucky, then dig in and let the winter freeze badly prepped Russians while they pick off supply and command lines ready for a push when the ground freezes over.

 

[PVA]

Looks like a big collapse of the front around Kherson. Thousands of Russian troops likely to be encircled with only one route out.

 

[shmmeee]

Looks like a big collapse of the front around Kherson. Thousands of Russian troops likely to be encircled with only one route out.

Russians have ran it seems to avoid another encirclement, but Ukrainians haven’t yet found where the new line is so are taking huge swathes unopposed. If they can secure the crossing at Nova Khakovka everything that side of the river is basically fucked, and it brings lots of juicy targets north of Crimea into range

Big pincer moves in the East around Kremmina as well that could collapse that front. Russian sources saying not to expect and changes in the short term.

Don’t know if they’ve got the power to punch through, but a similar strike towards Mariupol would basically split the Russians in two and likely end the war or at least guarantee its outcome.

 

[PVA]

Yep that's Dr Mike's theory

 

[Otis]

Yep that's Dr Mike's theory

Love a bit of Dr Mike.

 

[Mcbean]

I guess if the Ukrainians can cut off Crimea and retake Mariopul ! whatever Putin is going to be very pissed

 

[David O'Day]

Russians have ran it seems to avoid another encirclement, but Ukrainians haven’t yet found where the new line is so are taking huge swathes unopposed. If they can secure the crossing at Nova Khakovka everything that side of the river is basically fucked, and it brings lots of juicy targets north of Crimea into range

Big pincer moves in the East around Kremmina as well that could collapse that front. Russian sources saying not to expect and changes in the short term.

Don’t know if they’ve got the power to punch through, but a similar strike towards Mariupol would basically split the Russians in two and likely end the war or at least guarantee its outcome.

Didn't they destroy that ferry crossing in September?

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

Russians have ran it seems to avoid another encirclement, but Ukrainians haven’t yet found where the new line is so are taking huge swathes unopposed. If they can secure the crossing at Nova Khakovka everything that side of the river is basically fucked, and it brings lots of juicy targets north of Crimea into range

Big pincer moves in the East around Kremmina as well that could collapse that front. Russian sources saying not to expect and changes in the short term.

Don’t know if they’ve got the power to punch through, but a similar strike towards Mariupol would basically split the Russians in two and likely end the war or at least guarantee its outcome.

Are there no more thoughts for Putin to retry invading through Belarus?

 

[shmmeee]

Are there no more thoughts for Putin to retry invading through Belarus?

few thousand Russian troops either there or on their way I think.

Everything I’ve read says the problem is infantry vs combined arms only ends one way and Russia haven’t got enough equipment to form decent offensive battalions.

 

[Brighton Sky Blue]

few thousand Russian troops either there or on their way I think.

Everything I’ve read says the problem is infantry vs combined arms only ends one way and Russia haven’t got enough equipment to form decent offensive battalions.

Reopening a third front forces Ukraine to focus on two opposite ends of the country and their capital on top. The original plan was to quickly seize Kyiv, capture Zelensky and use that to subdue the rest. Might be worth going back to that because they're just taking a beating at the moment.

 

[shmmeee]

Reopening a third front forces Ukraine to focus on two opposite ends of the country and their capital on top. The original plan was to quickly seize Kyiv, capture Zelensky and use that to subdue the rest. Might be worth going back to that because they're just taking a beating at the moment.

They haven’t got the stuff to do it, they can’t even hold what they’ve got. There’s no way they can attack Kyiv.

Only out I see is reinforce a shorter front line around the 2014 border and hope to throw enough meat into the grinder to stall Ukraine long enough to get a peace settlement. There’s no way they get the training and equipment required for a serious push any time soon.

They tried to retake Kupyansk by throwing men at it and it was a massacre. Hundred of Russians dead.

 

[Flying Fokker]

It’s a turkey shoot at the moment. I just hope tactical nuclear bombs are not used. Russia is becoming weaker and weaker as the war goes on. None of their borders are safe.

 

[PVA]

Are there no more thoughts for Putin to retry invading through Belarus?

They simply haven't got the numbers, equipment or logistics to attempt it.

 

[David O'Day]

It’s a turkey shoot at the moment. I just hope tactical nuclear bombs are not used. Russia is becoming weaker and weaker as the war goes on. None of their borders are safe.

If they are the US will basically destroy all Russian forces in Ukraine and the Black Sea.

 

[David O'Day]

 

[shmmeee]

EU Russian gas reliance drops from 41% to 7.5%! I knowing few on here were “concerned” with the amount they use.

 

[tisza]

EU Russian gas reliance drops from 41% to 7.5%! I knowing few on here were “concerned” with the amount they use.

Great but that has to lead to a way of dropping global price. Cannot have a situation (politically or financially) where gas prices remain anywhere near this level for a sustained period of time.

 

[jimmyhillsfanclub]

Whilst any reduction is welcomed, its worth noting a large chunk of this very recent & overdue reduction is purely down to Putins power plays with the nord stream supplies.....not EU resource planning & re-structure

....also worth noting that just since the invasion, the EU have now paid more than 100 billion euro to russia......thats roughly the equivalent of the entire EU defence budget over the same period.....

The EU have today finally agreed (in principle, with exceptions) to impose a price cap on russian oil exports too....... they're quick off the mark eh!

 

[shmmeee]

Whilst any reduction is welcomed, its worth noting a large chunk of this very recent & overdue reduction is purely down to Putins power plays with the nord stream supplies.....not EU resource planning & re-structure

....also worth noting that just since the invasion, the EU have now paid more than 100 billion euro to russia......thats roughly the equivalent of the entire EU defence budget over the same period.....

The EU have today finally agreed (in principle, with exceptions) to impose a price cap on russian oil exports too....... they're quick off the mark eh!

What did you expect? All oil and gas instantly shut off? Seems a little fanciful. Obviously the economic rehabilitation of Russia is a failed policy, but short of time travel back to the 70s I’m not sure what you were expecting?

 

[tisza]

EU Russian gas reliance drops from 41% to 7.5%! I knowing few on here were “concerned” with the amount they use.

be interesting to see comparative usage/consumption data to add context. Also many EU countries have taken steps to reduce consumption that aren't necessarily sustainable for a period of time.

 

[tisza]

Whilst any reduction is welcomed, its worth noting a large chunk of this very recent & overdue reduction is purely down to Putins power plays with the nord stream supplies.....not EU resource planning & re-structure

....also worth noting that just since the invasion, the EU have now paid more than 100 billion euro to russia......thats roughly the equivalent of the entire EU defence budget over the same period.....

The EU have today finally agreed (in principle, with exceptions) to impose a price cap on russian oil exports too....... they're quick off the mark eh!

Can't just shift suppliers. Alternative gas suppliers had already sold much of their gas to other countries for this time period. They can't just up production overnight.
Cheaper to pay Russia in the short-term than the cost of shutting industries etc.
These measures are long-term damage to Russian economy. Having to sell at reduced rates to the likes of China & India. Western investment isn't going to rush back into Russia when this war is over - regardless of who "wins".
EU energy policy will see a move away from gas for long-term energy security coupled with the desire to move to greener sources. This conflict is just seeing a step-up in the timetable to move to a greener energy policythat was already planned.

 

[Sky Blue Pete]

Can't just shift suppliers. Alternative gas suppliers had already sold much of their gas to other countries for this time period. They can't just up production overnight.
Cheaper to pay Russia in the short-term than the cost of shutting industries etc.
These measures are long-term damage to Russian economy. Having to sell at reduced rates to the likes of China & India. Western investment isn't going to rush back into Russia when this war is over - regardless of who "wins".
EU energy policy will see a move away from gas for long-term energy security coupled with the desire to move to greener sources. This conflict is just seeing a step-up in the timetable to move to a greener energy policythat was already planned.

Putin the green warrior

 

[David O'Day]

I wonder is Orban secretly regrets backing the wrong horse in this race? Russia are going to lose and will have nothing left to offer him once this is all over.

 

[tisza]

I wonder is Orban secretly regrets backing the wrong horse in this race? Russia are going to lose and will have nothing left to offer him once this is all over.

Nope.
Spent a long time creating a similar political and economic climate similar to Putin's. Concentration of huge amounts of capital and key market control concentrated in the hands of a few key allies. Restrictions on independent media and judiciary. Hungarian banks owned by Orban cronies were used to funnel much of the Russian money to Le Pen and others.
Genuinely dislikes the perceived liberal attitudes of EU and perceived Brussels interference in domestic issues. Presevration of national identity etc - the list goes on.
Despite sanctions still a Russian bank operating here as it has full diplomatic immunity - supposedly Orban hides his vast money as well as a front for Russian spy agenices etc.
Still committed to Russia funding and upgrading the main nuclear reactor based here in Paks.