Brighton Sky Blue
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I think now a platform for Sargon of Akkad characters
Do you want to discuss boring politics? (230 Viewers)
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Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
I did read somewhere that the Tories are getting their candidates together for being their next MPs in the constituencies. A bit like what Labour is doing as well.
The latest a GE can be called, I think, is 3 years away, but it is starting to look like there may be an early election called.
Seeing that there have been a number of PMs over the last few months, there really isn't a mandate for a governing party to govern from the electorate.
I know this really isn't a big thing with Labour, but I would expect it to be quite a big thing within the echelons of the Tories.
The latest a GE can be called, I think, is 3 years away, but it is starting to look like there may be an early election called.
Seeing that there have been a number of PMs over the last few months, there really isn't a mandate for a governing party to govern from the electorate.
I know this really isn't a big thing with Labour, but I would expect it to be quite a big thing within the echelons of the Tories.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Next GE has to be held by Jan 2025 so just over two years. But is scheduled for May 24 I think if not called earlier so 18 months away. I can’t see the Tories calling an early election, this is normal timescales really for deciding reelection.
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Aye, the way it's going Sunak's best bet is to hold on, and hope that either his policies work, or something happens that can make him look good. Hold an election now and they're destroyed, so what benefit is there for him to do so?
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
Seeing how poorly Sunak did against Truss, he has to be a liability in any GE.
Been on the stock market all week playing around, so been listening to the global financial news. Seems like a poor start to 2023 with it picking up slightly globally in the second half of 2023 for America et al. Seems like the picture is expected to be a bit more grim for the UK.
What you are saying definitely works into what I've been hearing.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
I think they know they’ll get battered whenever it is and are holding to extract as much cash as possible while hoping for a miracle.
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
I think if they could start to bring the country out of recession by the time of an election, then it may be a tight race. Still think it's going to be a race to the bottom for anyone who's elected.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
I don’t think so. I think they’re done as most governments are after 12 years.
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
There does seem to be a nervous twitch for the UK public to elect a party longer than that. I agree. Just look at the Lib Dems. Still struggling to recover any previous form from going in Government with the Tories. And rightly so. Seems like they are slowly recovering at a local level in the areas where their power is located, but their lust for power absolutely devastated them.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Cant find it now but saw some stuff on “cost of governing” in polling yesterday that shows Tory vote has been declining pretty steadily barring the odd bump (Covid, vaccines) and the odd slump (Truss) and apparently that’s quite normal.
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
And if anyone's interested, I know I am, 80% profit on the week. Missed the nasdaq rise and this is with no fees.
Going to try it with real money next week
Watch me get hammered!
Going to try it with real money next week
Watch me get hammered!
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
Well, that's the same with any party. The race to take the mythical middle ground alienates all the voters with the belief your own grassroots won't vote for anyone else. We've seen that fall apart all over the country. The problem has always been the apathy this brings, and it is just not easy to retake lost old ground.
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Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
Is there a reshaping of the constituencies before the next election?
Also, on top of that, with the SNP usually getting Scotland, the swing needed in England must be quite high from one party to another.
Higher than the average, anyway.
Also, on top of that, with the SNP usually getting Scotland, the swing needed in England must be quite high from one party to another.
Higher than the average, anyway.
JAM See
Well-Known Member
Compulsory voting is needed in any country that believes it has a functioning democracy.
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
I would rather have prospective MPs who don't reach the 50% turnout, not to be able to take up their seats in Parliament.
It's the standard they have set for trade unions.
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Hadn't thoought of it that way, but wouldn't be against it. Out of interest, how many (in a General Election) fail to reach 50% turnout? I know by-elections are special cases, but I'd have thought a GE would be almost a certainty to hit that?
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
How about weighting your vote by turnout percentage. Can have so much fun with this.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Its a lot more than that looking at this: Majority Sorted Seats
Edit: unless you meant how many would have won. I make it two Tory MPs.
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
Eh? That's zero of those seats that I can see? I can accept I may have missed one or two. Speaker's seat is the closest, and he doesn't vote anyway.
(Out of interest, who represents the speaker's constituents, when he can't?)
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
In one polling station in Coventry, the turnout was a mighty 3%
Many, though below 20%
A handful of polling stations above 30%
And one above 40%
By my reckoning, this would mean no one would be at the helm at CCC.
Which wouldn't be much change than what's going on at the moment.
Many, though below 20%
A handful of polling stations above 30%
And one above 40%
By my reckoning, this would mean no one would be at the helm at CCC.
Which wouldn't be much change than what's going on at the moment.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Arent we talking about a 50% vote share with a 50% turnout or have I misunderstood the union rules?
D
Deleted member 5849
Guest
OK, although tbf union is a straight yes / no, you don't get the option of Loony or Farage on your ballot paper! So surely just 50% turnout is the best you can manage unless you do AV?
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
I mean let’s be clear the Union rules are stupid for the exact same reason. The cry of the unelectable is always “oh but the non voters” when all evidence we have says non voters would vote the exact same as voters and aren’t some mystery group to imprint your own beliefs on.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
I mean I would do some form of AV, but the argument is “more than half the electorate didn’t want you”.
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
The turnout percentage is what people look at though to state what they are doing is a good thing.
When turnout is as low as this, you got to ask are you doing the right thing, or are you just relying on the apathy of the electorate not to vote against you?
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
But if you don’t like the incumbent why wouldn’t you vote against them? As I say all the evidence is non-voters would break like voters do.
Id support more effort to increase turnout for its own sake, it should at least be a public holiday paid if you can prove you voted (whatever that looks like) and ID requirements are a blatant attempt at voter suppression and should be cancelled. But realistically most people just don’t give a shit.
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
Isn't ID requirements a necessity in Labour?
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
You would require ID to vote in Labour internally?
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
No? I’ve voted in internal elections loads without ID.
Philosoraptor
Well-Known Member
Mhmm could be wrong. I do agree with you that Voter ID is a bad idea. Seems to disadvantage a certain percentage of the population.
It is there in America for all to see.
shmmeee
Well-Known Member
The fact OAP bus passes are acceptable but student ones aren’t says it all really.
I’ve never provided ID to Labour, signed up online, paid my fees and get a login to vote. I rejoined in 2015. Before that IIRC I got membership as a present from my Dad.