Given you're pretty close to it all, do you have any thoughts on how it all ends?
My uneducated guess is a year or so of relative, grinding, hideous, horrific, stalemate, and then Putin slips whilst cleaning his penthouse windows. That might be a bit optimistic though...
Don't see any "nice" solutions.
1. Ukraine retakes territory but at a huge cost. Possibly some but not all in particular the Crimea.
2. Russia manages to hold territory - again at a huge cost to both sides. Then you have "an aggressive, confident" Russia that will strengthen its military before fulfilling Putin's other expressed desires on rebuilding Russian empire - maybe a go at the rest of Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova etc.
3. Putin (like Xi) has built a cadre of like-minded thinkers and eliminated any tangible opposition / political alternative. His death probably an irrelevance in the short-term assuming the "cadre" agree on a replacement.
4. No quick fix. Regardless of Russian mobilizations Ukraine still has a massive battle-hardened army - the sad "kill ratios" are proving that these mobilizations are just a "meat grinder". Motivated, experienced troops vs poorly trained, unmotivated conscripts is a mismatch.
If Ukraine can hold new attacks whilst pushing through to the southern coast to threaten the Kerch bridge that's a big factor. Much of the war supplies still coming from Russia via Crimea. Realistically the key also is how long NATO etc can supply Ukraine with arms & munitions. Also how long European NATO states can keep defending increased living costs for their populations.
5. Regardless of outcome world peace has regressed years. Going to see a new arms war escalation that we saw with the "heyday" of Soviet Communism. Levels of mistrust.
