Do you want to discuss boring politics? (15 Viewers)

[Grendel]

Maybe I am an idiot

 

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[shmmeee]

Illegal immigration has gone up.

I remember the pre Brexit immigration numbers. I put them at between 2 and 3 million. Got told I was an idiot. Maybe I am an idiot. Turned out it was close to 4 million who needed the right to stay.

Both legal and illegal immigration has gone up. And both because of Brexit. Illegal because we no longer have a deal with mainland Europe and legal because we’ve opened up to other countries as they said they would.

Not that immigration causes any of these problems, they’re all linked to government priorities. Most EU governments spend money on infrastructure that we seem incapable of doing.

 

[Astute]

It’s not rocket science. Build more houses and use the state to build them. Private developers have pretty consistently completed something like 400k/year for decades. Clearly there’s no much more capacity there. The drop came when local authorities stopped building, so start that up again. Hopefully Labour see through their plans there.

Labour did nothing last time. They had enough years to do something. I have gone past trusting any politician.

We would need a massive building program just to keep up with present needs. And even then they build on flood plains. Then you have the NIMBY's.

If the housebuilding were forced to build on their landmarks things would improve. But they are happy with the valuation of the land going up without having to build. And the lack of homes keeps the newbuild prices up giving extra profit again.

 

[clint van damme]

I think you've missed the point mate. Or, like the other poster, make some attempt at a joke rather than address where I was coming from.

I get your point, I think, you're saying company's screw up and hide behind Brexit, which happens, I've had experience of it.

But I think the point of my posting the original tweet has been missed, the government have bragged about setting up supply chains as an alternative to EU supply chains and it turns out to be bollocks with, not for the first time, a shell company or two thrown into the mix for good measure.

 

[Astute]

Both legal and illegal immigration has gone up. And both because of Brexit. Illegal because we no longer have a deal with mainland Europe and legal because we’ve opened up to other countries as they said they would.

Not that immigration causes any of these problems, they’re all linked to government priorities. Most EU governments spend money on infrastructure that we seem incapable of doing.

Again do you trust any political party to finally do something?

 

[shmmeee]

Labour did nothing last time. They had enough years to do something. I have gone past trusting any politician.

We would need a massive building program just to keep up with present needs. And even then they build on flood plains. Then you have the NIMBY's.

If the housebuilding were forced to build on their landmarks things would improve. But they are happy with the valuation of the land going up without having to build. And the lack of homes keeps the newbuild prices up giving extra profit again.

There’s no evidence of land banking really. Developers build as fast as they can in general, the bottle neck is usually labour in my experience.

Flood plains are planning law, though I agree, but there’s lots of non flood zone stuff to build on.

If you look at this it’s very clear the private sector has never been able to pick up the slack from local authorities regardless of economic conditions or planning laws:



Edit: sorry it’s 200k, not 400k

 

[shmmeee]

Again do you trust any political party to finally do something?

Political parties do things all the time. Whether I agree with them all is a different matter.

 

[Astute]

No, you said very specifically "I want out of the EU" and "the main reason I am voting leave is for my younger children." There is no equivocation to be had!

If that is the case it would have been when I had my wobble I said about when all the corruption in the EU was coming out. But I honestly do not remember saying so.

 

[Astute]

There’s no evidence of land banking really. Developers build as fast as they can in general, the bottle neck is usually labour in my experience.

Flood plains are planning law, though I agree, but there’s lots of non flood zone stuff to build on.

If you look at this it’s very clear the private sector has never been able to pick up the slack from local authorities regardless of economic conditions or planning laws:

View attachment 28508

Edit: sorry it’s 200k, not 400k

Britain’s Hoarding Housebuilders Increase Land Banking Plots During the Pandemic - Property Notify

Property Notify Press Releases: The latest research by Birmingham and Newcastle-based property developer, StripeHomes, reveals which of the UK’s biggest developers currently own the

www.propertynotify.co.uk

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

I may have. I thought you were saying because you’d travelled to Europe concerns about goods import issues weren’t valid. Why has this poor management just so happened to coincide with us leaving the EU?

I mean it’s hardly surprising that you leave a customs Union and supply chains suffer.

Clint has more or less clarified what I was saying. Companies hide behind poor management and blame brexit. That could be in the retail sector, travel sector, whatever. The first to do it were a bunch of terribly run internet based holiday companies who were issued winding up orders about a week after the referendum.

 

[shmmeee]

Britain’s Hoarding Housebuilders Increase Land Banking Plots During the Pandemic - Property Notify

Property Notify Press Releases: The latest research by Birmingham and Newcastle-based property developer, StripeHomes, reveals which of the UK’s biggest developers currently own the

www.propertynotify.co.uk

Yeah that’s the conspiracy theory but the fact is land buyers will keep buying plots where they find them, the reason it increased over the pandemic was shortage of labour making it harder to build. I’ve talked to people at places like Taylor Wimpey and Barratt about exactly this and they think it’s laughable.

 

[shmmeee]

Clint has more or less clarified what I was saying. Companies hide behind poor management and blame brexit. That could be in the retail sector, travel sector, whatever. The first to do it were a bunch of terribly run internet based holiday companies who were issued winding up orders about a week after the referendum.

Yeah it definitely happens, see my comments about the work remotely abroad stuff and everyone claiming Brexit meant it couldn’t happen. But equally making trade harder will obvious exacerbate issues and make it harder for firms on the edge. All without any clear benefit.

 

[Astute]

Yeah that’s the conspiracy theory but the fact is land buyers will keep buying plots where they find them, the reason it increased over the pandemic was shortage of labour making it harder to build. I’ve talked to people at places like Taylor Wimpey and Barratt about exactly this and they think it’s laughable.

The numbers are there though. They have gone up or stayed level for many years. And as it says new buils drip fed to keep prices at a premium. That is why the numbers were so high pre pandemic.

It isn't their job to help the government out. But it certainly doesn't help.

 

[shmmeee]

The numbers are there though. They have gone up or stayed level for many years. And as it says new buils drip fed to keep prices at a premium. That is why the numbers were so high pre pandemic.

It isn't their job to help the government out. But it certainly doesn't help.

That’s not true. They build as fast as they can get parts and labour. There’s two entirely separate departments. One spends all day looking for strategic land, the other tries to find staff and materials to build out. They’re not leaving money on the table in case house prices go up. And you can see that because there is no great drop off when land values start rising. Also when land values rise so does materials and labour costs. If land comes up and is viable they’ll buy it cos they can, regardless of how much they have already.

The graph I posted is very clear since local authorities stopped building total completions dropped from about 400k to half that and have never been replaced.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

That’s not true. They build as fast as they can get parts and labour. There’s two entirely separate departments. One spends all day looking for strategic land, the other tries to find staff and materials to build out. They’re not leaving money on the table in case house prices go up. And you can see that because there is no great drop off when land values start rising. Also when land values rise so does materials and labour costs. If land comes up and is viable they’ll buy it cos they can, regardless of how much they have already.

The graph I posted is very clear since local authorities stopped building total completions dropped from about 400k to half that and have never been replaced.

Question as well (and based partly on my house hunting!) My view is that private developers are, naturally, more keen on making profit than solving a housing crisis. So there's a number of 'luxury' homes built rather than 'affordable', and the only 'affordable' built are when legislated to do so, and they're the token houses on an estate. That means a small number of large houses built rather than rows of terraces. With more single and childless people about, surely an increase in stock of one and two bed housing is what we need? Allow the old thing of start there, trade up when need to because of family etc.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

As a small aside, why is it now a building regulation that a new build needs a downstairs loo, even if it's only a two-bed?

 

[fernandopartridge]

Yeah that’s the conspiracy theory but the fact is land buyers will keep buying plots where they find them, the reason it increased over the pandemic was shortage of labour making it harder to build. I’ve talked to people at places like Taylor Wimpey and Barratt about exactly this and they think it’s laughable.

Well they would, wouldn't they? I remember reading a report pre-pandemic, I think it was in Inside Housing which talked about the way the large housebuilders control the supply of properties at any one time in order to artificially prop up prices. It of course isn't the only factor and as you point out, the state offering a largescale alternative to the the large housebuilders is the obvious answer.

 

[fernandopartridge]

As a small aside, why is it now a building regulation that a new build needs a downstairs loo, even if it's only a two-bed?

Guess it relates to the Equality Act

 

[Astute]

That’s not true. They build as fast as they can get parts and labour. There’s two entirely separate departments. One spends all day looking for strategic land, the other tries to find staff and materials to build out. They’re not leaving money on the table in case house prices go up. And you can see that because there is no great drop off when land values start rising. Also when land values rise so does materials and labour costs. If land comes up and is viable they’ll buy it cos they can, regardless of how much they have already.

The graph I posted is very clear since local authorities stopped building total completions dropped from about 400k to half that and have never been replaced.

If the problem was all about labour why don't they train their own staff? Every other type of business does so.

I worked in construction in the 80's until the crash. You went where the money is. If they paid enough they would always have the labour. You got to the end of your part of the build then moved to the next site. If someone offered you more money you moved.

 

[shmmeee]

Question as well (and based partly on my house hunting!) My view is that private developers are, naturally, more keen on making profit than solving a housing crisis. So there's a number of 'luxury' homes built rather than 'affordable', and the only 'affordable' built are when legislated to do so, and they're the token houses on an estate. That means a small number of large houses built rather than rows of terraces. With more single and childless people about, surely an increase in stock of one and two bed housing is what we need? Allow the old thing of start there, trade up when need to because of family etc.

Oh totally. I’m no fan of big builders, but they follow the economics and planning legislation. Mostly that means flats for one and two beds plus family homes. People buying homes generally don’t want terraces is the belief I think. And they’re probably right. Also trouble with single people affording a mortgage rather than selling flats to BTL landlords.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

People buying homes generally don’t want terraces is the belief I think.

That's true of course, but also why they end up more affordable if built, and more likely to help people onto a ladder.

 

[shmmeee]

If the problem was all about labour why don't they train their own staff? Every other type of business does so.

I worked in construction in the 80's until the crash. You went where the money is. If they paid enough they would always have the labour. You got to the end of your part of the build then moved to the next site. If someone offered you more money you moved.

Because no one wants to go into construction for some reason and a lot of apprentices quit so there’s no economic case for it. Hence bussing in a load of Eastern Europeans. So there’s a lot of competition for workers among sites. There’s been shortages in construction for ages and not much done about it.

 

[Astute]

Oh totally. I’m no fan of big builders, but they follow the economics and planning legislation. Mostly that means flats for one and two beds plus family homes. People buying homes generally don’t want terraces is the belief I think. And they’re probably right. Also trouble with single people affording a mortgage rather than selling flats to BTL landlords.

People don't want terrace housing but it comes down to what they can afford. And most of the time detached is out of their price range.

 

[shmmeee]

Well they would, wouldn't they? I remember reading a report pre-pandemic, I think it was in Inside Housing which talked about the way the large housebuilders control the supply of properties at any one time in order to artificially prop up prices. It of course isn't the only factor and as you point out, the state offering a largescale alternative to the the large housebuilders is the obvious answer.

I mean these people had no reason to lie, not all were still at those employers either. But everyone in the industry I asked laughed at the idea. It’s basically leaving money on the table for no reason. Lack of workers is by far the bigger reason. But yeah local authorities is the answer. It’s such a no brainier. Govt can borrow cheap, housing will always pay back over time and we can build the houses we need or want as a country rather than what’s most economically viable (eg terraces or net zero or whatever)

 

[PVA]

But Alfonso Gálvez, who serves as general secretary of the Murcia branch of Asaja, Spain’s biggest farming association, said he was puzzled by the media talk of weather-induced shortages.

“I’ve seen these articles but I don’t understand why they’re talking about shortages here,” he said. “Things are normal so far this season so I don’t know if it’s more a problem of UK logistics since the Brexit regulations came into effect. There’s enough produce to supply the market and the vegetable season is happening pretty normally.”

 

[shmmeee]

People don't want terrace housing but it comes down to what they can afford. And most of the time detached is out of their price range.

I think most people who can afford a new build want a semi at least. Of course there are terraces built in some developments. But there’s not enough houses generally so if you can build higher spec you’ll get more money assuming they sell (which they will) because the markup is better.

 

[Deleted member 5849]

I think most people who can afford a new build want a semi at least. Of course there are terraces built in some developments. But there’s not enough houses generally so if you can build higher spec you’ll get more money assuming they sell (which they will) because the markup is better.

I'll tell you what the demand is like for a two bed end terrace in a couple of weeks!!

 

[Astute]

And the in touch Tories hit the jackpot again

Eat turnips during vegetable shortage, suggests Therese Coffey

Cabinet minister says consumers should "cherish" home-grown produce as shops limit sales of some items.

www.bbc.co.uk

 

[shmmeee]

I came out of my time in property with two solid beliefs: planning law needs to be much tighter on minimum space and energy efficiency and local authorities need to build old style council houses. It’s all a numbers game and even the social housing orgs play it they just have a bit more concern for the people living in the tiny shit holes they build.

 

[skybluetony176]

Could be worse, there could be a cigar and wine shortage. She’ll need a glass of wine and a cigar to chomp on after watching this

 

[skybluetony176]

Seeing lots of videos on line of supermarkets in war torn Ukraine stocked full of the produce we’re rationing. Maybe we could do an arms for tomatoes arrangement.

 

[Earlsdon_Skyblue1]

Seeing lots of videos on line of supermarkets in war torn Ukraine stocked full of the produce we’re rationing. Maybe we could do an arms for tomatoes arrangement.

Is this the same Ukraine that isn't in the European Union?

 

[skybluetony176]

Is this the same Ukraine that isn't in the European Union?

I know you think that this is a gotcha but the fact is Ukraine has better arrangements with the EU than us. The fact that a war zone outside of the EU is better served by its trading arrangement than us with ours speaks volumes about how bad ours is. Still, we held all the cards.

 

[CCFCSteve]

I know you think that this is a gotcha but the fact is Ukraine has better arrangements with the EU than us. The fact that a war zone outside of the EU is better served by its trading arrangement than us with ours speaks volumes about how bad ours is. Still, we held all the cards.

That’s nonsense Tony. We’re not even checking EU produce until next year.

Unless you’re suggesting the EU is trying to teach us another lesson. Hang on a sec…

 

[Grendel]

Is this the same Ukraine that isn't in the European Union?

you might be able to get in with an Irish Passport I suppose